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Cryptocurrency

Can Bitcoin (BTC) Hit $100,000 if the Russia-Ukraine War Ends (ChatGPT Analyzes)

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TL;DR

  • Bitcoin’s value dropped significantly due to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in early 2022. The conflict is ongoing and continues to impact global financial markets.
  • The end of the war could boost the cryptocurrency market, potentially pushing BTC’s price up. However, reaching the $100K milestone would require additional conditions.


What if the Conflict Ceases?

The cryptocurrency market, particularly the price of bitcoin (BTC), can be significantly affected by geopolitical tension. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine at the start of 2022, described by the former’s authorities as a “special military operation,” is one evident example. 

BTC’s value plummeted severely on the news, while the crypto sector lost approximately $200 billion in a day. The war is still ongoing, remaining a burden on global monetary stability and causing huge uncertainty in financial markets.

But what if the countries bury the hatchet? We decided to ask ChatGPT whether such a potential scenario could boost BTC’s price to an all-time high of $100,000.

The AI-powered chatbot estimated that the war’s eventual end will most likely cause an upswing in the entire cryptocurrency industry. BTC has previously reacted positively after reports that the two nations are getting close to declaring a truce.

However, ChatGPT claimed that reaching the $100K milestone would require additional factors. Some of the depicted elements include positive market sentiment, investor confidence, favorable regulatory changes, and increased BTC adoption. 

It is worth noting that the price of the primary cryptocurrency has been progressing despite the military conflict in Eastern Europe. It was trading at around $37,000 at the time of Russia’s invasion, while currently, the price is around $61,000 (a 75% increase). Things looked even better for the bulls in mid-March when BTC hit an ATH of over $73,500.

Could Trump Speed up the Process?

One possible factor that could cease the clash between Russia and Ukraine is the potential election of Donald Trump as America’s new President. The Republican candidate has repeatedly claimed that he can solve the war in just a day should he enter the White House as a winner. 

He insists that his established relationships with both Russian President Vladimir Putin and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky would allow him to negotiate a quick deal between the fighting nations. 

One should keep in mind, though, that the military conflict is very complex, meaning the chances of a resolution in such a short time are quite slim. 

Even if Trump fails on the peace front, his potential election could positively impact BTC. The billionaire, who was a fierce critic of cryptocurrency in the past, has made a U-turn lately, presenting himself as the right choice for the pro-crypto voters in the US. 

He promised to let the industry thrive and pledged to increase America’s BTC mining efforts. Last week, Trump attempted the Bitcoin conference in Nashville, making the headlines with his speech.

He expressed his desire for the United States to become the global leader in cryptocurrency and to create a national strategic reserve of the leading digital asset.

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25% of Bitcoin at Risk: Developers Push for Quantum-Resistant Upgrade

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Developers are warning that a growing quantum computing threat could compromise 25% of Bitcoin’s supply due to exposed public keys.

To combat this, Jameson Lopp, CTO and co-founder of self-custody service Casa, has proposed a quantum-resistant upgrade to the cryptocurrency’s software.

A Three-Phase Solution

According to a July 15 Bitcoin Improvement Proposal (BIPs), approximately 4 million BTC, including the 1 million believed to belong to Satoshi Nakamoto, are vulnerable to future quantum computer attacks.

“Bitcoin’s current signatures (ECDSA/Schnorr) will be a tantalizing target: any UTXO that has ever exposed its public key on-chain (roughly 25% of all bitcoin) could be stolen by a cryptographically relevant quantum computer,” the post said.

The plan outlines three steps to reduce this threat. The first phase would block users from sending BTC to quantum-vulnerable addresses and instead require the use of a new post-quantum address type called P2QRH.

The second step, planned to begin two years later, would freeze any funds that have not been moved to a secure address. The final phase is still being studied and could allow people to recover frozen assets using a BIP-39 seed phrase.

Lopp presented the initiative at the Quantum Bitcoin Summit in San Francisco, an invite-only gathering of experts focused on protecting BTC against such vulnerabilities. The plan, crafted in collaboration with five other developers, is built around an incentive mechanism that warns users they will lose access to their funds if they do not upgrade. The goal is to push holders toward safer storage methods that quantum computers cannot compromise.

The Quantum Threat

In the proposal, the authors stressed the enormity of the threat posed to the Bitcoin ecosystem by a potential quantum attack:

“Never before has Bitcoin faced an existential threat to its cryptographic primitives,” they wrote. “A successful quantum attack on Bitcoin would result in significant economic disruption and damage across the entire ecosystem.”

Their fear is backed by a past Deloitte study explaining how severe the damage could be. The research demonstrated that if the vulnerable BTC were unlocked and sold following a quantum attack, it would trigger heavy selling pressure on the market. Lopp described this situation as a “liquidation event.”

Elsewhere, Project Eleven, a research group focused on quantum computing, recently announced a competition to measure the real-world risk such technology poses to the leading cryptocurrency’s security.

The group reported that more than 10 million BTC addresses have exposed public keys. This puts about 6.2 million BTC, worth around $500 billion, at risk if quantum computing continues to improve. A separate analysis by CryptoQuant pointed out that these attacks could also affect mining operations.

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Cryptocurrency

XRP Set to Moon? $4.80 Target Hinges on This Game-Changing Catalyst (Analyst)

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TL;DR

  • Multiple analysts, including Ali Martinez, believe XRP’s price could soon enter undiscovered territory.
  • The approval of a futures-based XRP ETF, growing network activity, and rising whale accumulation back the asset’s bullish momentum.

Waiting for a New ATH

Ripple’s XRP has been one of crypto’s rock stars in the past several weeks, with its price pumping to a five-month high of over $3. Currently, it trades just south of that milestone, representing a 32% increase on a 30-day scale.

XRP Price
XRP Price, Source: CoinGecko


Meanwhile, XRP’s market capitalization surged past $175 billion, thus
surpassing Tether’s USDT and becoming the third-biggest cryptocurrency.

Somewhat expected, crypto X is rammed with users who believe the asset’s rally is nowhere near its end. The popular analyst Ali Martinez, for instance, predicted that XRP could skyrocket to a new historic peak of $4.80 as long as it secures a weekly close above $3.

Other market observers who have laid their thoughts on the matter include the X users CRYPTOWZRD and Johnny. The former argued that XRP has flipped the old $2.8 resistance target and has turned it into support.

“One more bullish daily close here would confirm that flip and set the stage for a move to a new all-time high. The next resistance target is $3.65,” they added.

Johnny provided fewer details, simply noticing the token’s impressive performance and forecasting that this could be the move that triggers a new ATH.

The Potential Catalysts

One factor that may have positively influenced the asset’s price is the recent SEC approval of the ProShares Ultra XRP ETF. The product is futures-based, will trade under the ticker UXPR, and is designed to provide twice the daily performance of the token’s price. 

A spot XRP ETF in the USA has yet to receive the green light from the securities regulator, but the chances for approval remain solid at around 86% (before the end of 2025).

XRP ETF Approval
XRP ETF Approval, Source: Polymarket

The recent growth of XRP’s network and the whales’ activity are also elements that could have contributed to the bull run. For those willing to explore the possible catalysts in detail, please refer to our article here.

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Bitcoin’s Pause Is Ethereum’s Green Light: Here’s What’s Next

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Bitcoin’s surge has paused as traders engaged in profit-taking.

This triggered a pullback, which dragged the cryptocurrency near $116,000. It has since staged a recovery of nearly 2%, pushing Bitcoin above $119,000 at the time of writing.

New data has emerged, signaling that BTC is not at a local top but in a transition phase, with timing, behavior, and structure all pointing to further upside.

BTC Makes Room for Alts

According to the analytics firm, SwissBlock’s latest market report, ‘Altcoin Vector,’ beneath the surface, capital rotation has started, and Ethereum is emerging as the next leg of the cycle. The firm said that Bitcoin is consolidating, and not breaking down.

BTC dominance has likely peaked in the short term as capital rotation accelerates across the crypto market. The ETH/BTC ratio is also rising steadily, which is indicative of Ethereum’s relative strength and its ability to attract liquidity from Bitcoin while also lifting the broader altcoin complex.

This is is also driving renewed momentum in other altcoins as liquidity moves within the market rather than exiting it. This trend indicates an expansion phase where capital is redeploying into Ethereum and select altcoins, while simultaneously reducing BTC’s market share.

The rotation means that confidence remains intact as investors seek higher returns beyond BTC.

BTC Hasn’t Topped Yet

While Bitcoin’s pause has triggered rotation into Ethereum and altcoins, SwissBlock argued that the broader cycle for the world’s largest crypto itself remains unfinished.

According to BTC Vector’s Optimal Signal, each major expansion in this cycle has lasted 15-30 days, while the current rally is only on day 12. With capital beginning to rotate into Ethereum, it indicates that the cycle remains incomplete.

To top that, Glassnode’s Short-Term Holder Relative Unrealized Profit also remains well below levels seen during previous cycle tops in January and April 2024, which means that market participants are not exhibiting excessive profit-taking or euphoria yet.

Additionally, both Willy Woo’s Speculation Index and VWAP Liquidity confirm that the market is not overheated, as neither indicator has reached prior cycle extremes. These factors together suggest there is ongoing structural support for Bitcoin to move higher.

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