TL;DR

• ETH has dropped 11% over the past month, with analysts warning of a possible further decrease to $1,800 if key support levels fail.
• Others predict a potential rebound, citing a “bear trap” pattern and historical trends.

Further Pain for ETH Bulls?

Ethereum (ETH) has been among the worst-performing cryptocurrencies (from the top 10 list) lately, with its price dipping by 11% on a monthly scale. It is down 4% in the past 24 hours and currently trades at around $2,300 (per CoiGecko’s data). 

One popular analyst who thinks ETH’s decline could be far from over is X user Ali Martinez. He outlined the $2,290-$2,360 range as a “key support” level, where 1.9 million addresses hold approximately $52.3 million worth of the asset. 

The crypto enthusiast believes ETH could crash by 20% to as low as $1,800 should its price dip below that zone. Recall that its valuation briefly plunged to $2,260 a few hours ago.

Certain on-chain metrics also suggest that Ethereum could experience a further correction in the near future. One example is the “In the Money” indicator, which is down by 0.19% daily. It shows the change in the number of ETH investors currently sitting on paper profits. As of now, 54% are in the green, while 39% are underwater.

The Bullish Scenario

Contrary to Ali Martinez’s assumption, numerous other analysts are optimistic that ETH is poised for a revival. The X user Phoenix thinks the asset’s chart has formed a “bear trap,” signaling a potential resurgence in the following months.

JAVON MARKS claimed that Ethereum’s pattern seems to have mirrored the one from 2023, which led to a 165% price increase.

“2023 looks to have been the blueprint for another massive upside that can soon be transpiring in this crypto market. Target is at $4,723.5, and a break above can welcome $8,100+ into play, projecting another near 2X in price, if not much, much more,” the analyst argued.

Last but not least, ETH’s RSI has recently plummeted to a bullish ratio of around 30. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) helps traders assess overbought or oversold conditions and thus predict possible price reversals. Readings below 30 generally indicate that ETH is oversold, which could be a precursor of a rally. Conversely, a ratio above 70 could be interpreted as bad news for bulls since it can be followed by a correction.

Ethereum is at its weakest level against Bitcoin since early 2021 as the ETH/BTC ratio continues to break down.

The ratio is a measure of the price of ETH in Bitcoin terms, not in US dollars. Despite falling 21% from its all-time high, Bitcoin has remained robust, whereas Ethereum remains down 53% from its peak in 2021.

In a post on X on Sept. 16, ITC Crypto founder Benjamin Cowed predicted that the ETH/BTC ratio will “likely bottom between 0.03-0.04 and then trend up in 2025.”

It’s almost over.

I think #ETH / #BTC will likely bottom between 0.03-0.04 and then trend up in 2025.

It could bottom as early as this week or as late as December

Based on prior capitulations, I think it will happen sooner rather than later

Will make a video about it tomorrow https://t.co/rwqj5u4n8A pic.twitter.com/lc7iMruoqf

— Benjamin Cowen (@intocryptoverse) September 16, 2024

He added that it could bottom as early as this week or as late as December, but “based on prior capitulations, I think it will happen sooner rather than later.”

Whales Offloading ETH

Head of research at Galaxy, Alex Thorn, also observed the disintegration of Ethereum prices, reporting that ETH/BTC just traded on a 0.03 handle for the first time in three and a half years.

ETHBTC just traded on a 0.03 handle for the first time in 3.5 years (apr 2021)

-53% since the merge in sep 2022

what stops this train? pic.twitter.com/Olj6SGEiVe

— Alex Thorn (@intangiblecoins) September 15, 2024

Meanwhile, analyst ‘Master Kenobi’ said that these patterns were cyclical. The ETH/BTC pair historically declined after a Bitcoin halving, with trend reversals occurring 168-224 days following the event in previous cycles. He added that a reversal is expected soon as it is currently around 150 days after the halving.

“Fundamentally, nothing has changed for Ethereum in a negative way,” he said before adding:

“The current movement is artificially driven by a lot of FUD in the market, and the reality is that they want you to sell your ETH at a low price. The underlying strength of Ethereum remains intact, and this downward pressure appears to be a tactic to shake out weak hands.”

On Sept. 16, Galaxy Trading observed that markets are now seeing the lowest sentiment for Ethereum since 2017 before adding:

“In my opinion, people are in such disbelief that they forget how quickly ETH can surge once it starts moving.”

“Right now, ETH is approaching its biggest support line since its inception,” they said before adding, “This isn’t the time to be bearish.”

Half of my feed is ETH FUD at this point.

— antiprosynthesis.eth ⟠ (@antiprosynth) September 15, 2024

ETH Price Outlook

On Sept. 16, industry observer Colin Wu reported that an “ancient whale” who received 16,636 ETH from ShapeShift at $5.23 per coin in February 2016 has now started selling.

This has added to the negative sentiment sending ETH plunging 6% on the day, dumping the asset to an intraday low of $2,260 during Monday morning trading in Asia.

Ethereum has been trading at its lowest level since January, but there is solid support here, which may remain until the overall market sentiment improves.

Even renowned analysts were piling on the ETH FUD:

$ETH

How it started How it’s going pic.twitter.com/PdLawNI2yT

— _Checkmate ⚡☢️️ (@_Checkmatey_) September 16, 2024

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