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Coinbase Premium Turns Positive in Early July: A Signal of Renewed Institutional Interest?

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The Coinbase premium turned positive in early July after a period of concern following a dip in mid-May

According to research from Kaiko, this could hint at a resurgence of institutional interest in Bitcoin.

Renewed Institutional Interest

The Coinbase premium, which measures the difference between hourly bitcoin prices on Coinbase’s BTC-USD pair and Binance’s BTC-USDT pair, is a key indicator of institutional sentiment in the cryptocurrency market.

On July 1, crypto analyst David Lawant pointed out that the Coinbase premium had fallen to worrying lows. He recalled a similar occurrence where a major crypto rally followed months after the premium had turned negative.

His analysis suggested that this metric could once again signal an upcoming market rally. By July 15, the premium surged to a two-month high, reinforcing Lawant’s bullish outlook.

According to Kaiko, this positive turn in early July followed its lowest level since the Terra collapse in 2022, witnessed at the end of June. Given that institutional trading volume makes up over 80% of activity on Coinbase, the premium is often seen as a measure of institutional sentiment.

Historically, the Coinbase premium has been closely linked with major market events. For instance, the collapses of Terra and FTX significantly reduced institutional demand for Bitcoin, causing the premium to dip into negative territory. However, the recent positive shift in the premium suggests an increase in institutional interest in BTC.

Kaiko also noted that the recent rise in the Coinbase premium may have been influenced by the increased volatility of Tether’s USDT. This volatility coincided with the European Union’s implementation of the Markets in Crypto-Assets Regulation (MiCA), imposing stringent requirements on stablecoin issuers.

Tether, currently non-compliant with these regulations, faced restrictions for European Economic Area (EEA) users by major cryptocurrency exchanges. Consequently, USDT lost its peg to the USD at the end of June but managed to recover by early July on most exchanges despite continued struggles on less liquid platforms like Binance.US.

Spot-Driven Rally

Market analyst HornHairs interprets bitcoin’s largest Coinbase premium in two months as a sign that the current rally is primarily driven by spot buying. This suggests that the rally, if sustained, will be led by altcoins within the Bitcoin and Ethereum blockchains, given their prominence as the first and second-largest networks in the crypto industry.

When bitcoin commands a higher price on the largest U.S. exchange, it indicates significant buying pressure from U.S. investors. This is particularly noteworthy because spot-driven rallies are typically seen as more sustainable and less risky compared to those driven by speculative derivatives products. Spot-driven rallies are considered healthier for the market, providing a more stable foundation for future growth.

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Cryptocurrency

Crypto Markets Skyrocket by Almost $400B in Days as BTC Price Surges Past $103K (Weekend Watch)

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Bitcoin’s recent price ascent took the asset to a new multi-month peak of over $104,000 where it faced some resistance and now sits above $103,000.

Many altcoins continue to post impressive gains, with ETH standing well above $2,300, while DOGE has soared past $0.21.

BTC’s Impressive Week

If we roll back the clock to May 6, we will see that BTC’s price was just rejected at $98,000, and the asset had slipped back down to under $94,000. Although this $4,000 price drop might sound painful, a broader look would show that bitcoin has still added roughly $20,000 since the early April lows. Impressive, right?

Well, the primary cryptocurrency wasn’t done yet, not by a long shot. It bounced off that support line, and it took about a day to fly past the coveted $100,000 line. As such, BTC stood within a six-digit price territory for the first time in over three months.

The gains kept coming on Friday as bitcoin exploded to its highest price level since late January of over $104,000. It met some resistance there and was pushed south by a few grand, but that was short-lived. As of now, BTC stands well above $103,000 – a 7% weekly surge and a 26% monthly pump.

Its market capitalization has risen to $2.050 trillion, while its dominance over the alts has taken a hit and is down to 60.5%, as many altcoins have registered mindblowing price increases.

BTCUSD. Source: TradingView
BTCUSD. Source: TradingView

Alts With Big Gains

Many altcoins have doubled down on yesterday’s price increases with massive gains today as well. ETH is among the leaders as another 6% surge has taken it to $2,350 where it faces a crucial resistance.

Binance Coin, Solana, Avalanche, and Shiba Inu have marked similar pumps, while DOGE has risen by over 12% and now trades above $0.21.

As a whole, the meme coins have posted the biggest gains, with PEPE and FARTCOIN leading the charts with substantial double-digit price increases.

The total crypto market cap has surged to $3.4 trillion on CG. This means that the metric has added roughly $400 billion since May 6.

Cryptocurrency Market Overview. Source: QuantifyCrypto
Cryptocurrency Market Overview. Source: QuantifyCrypto
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Disclaimer: Information found on CryptoPotato is those of writers quoted. It does not represent the opinions of CryptoPotato on whether to buy, sell, or hold any investments. You are advised to conduct your own research before making any investment decisions. Use provided information at your own risk. See Disclaimer for more information.

Cryptocurrency charts by TradingView.

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Cryptocurrency

3 Reasons Why a New Bitcoin (BTC) ATH Is Incoming

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TL;DR

  • Bitcoin’s recent outflows from exchanges and other vital factors support the case for a push toward a new all-time high.

  • However, the rising RSI suggests the asset may be overbought and vulnerable to a short-term pullback.

New Peak on the Way?

The price of the leading cryptocurrency has been booming lately, briefly climbing above $104,000 earlier today (May 9). As of this writing, bitcoin (BTC) is worth approximately $103,000, which represents a 33% monthly increase.

The asset’s impressive rally sparked huge enthusiasm on crypto X, with multiple users predicting that an upswing toward a new all-time high is just a matter of time. Some important factors support the bullish thesis.

An example is BTC’s exchange netflow, which has been predominantly negative on most days in the past week or so. This indicates a shift from centralized trading platforms toward self-custody methods and reduced selling pressure.

BTC Exchange Netflow
BTC Exchange Netflow, Source: CryptoQuant

The interest in BTC is also worth mentioning. Over the last few weeks, Google searches with the word ‘bitcoin’ have been on the rise, signaling increased attention from investors, especially retail.

BTC searches
BTC searches, Source: Google Trends

As CryptoPotato reported earlier today (May 9), Bitcoin’s network saw almost 350,000 newly created wallets in a single day, signaling a FOMO effect. On some occasions in the past, the massive influx of retail investors has been a precursor of cycle tops. Although the current retail numbers are higher now than in the last several weeks, they are still far from what could be described as the bull run top. 

Last but not least, we will focus on the upcoming meeting between US and Chinese officials scheduled for this weekend. The two sides will supposedly discuss de-escalation of the ongoing trade war. Recently, American President Donald Trump hinted that the tariffs imposed on China might be cut in the near future.

Eased tension between the two biggest economies in the world could positively impact the financial and crypto markets since it would reduce uncertainty and might boost investor confidence. 

Greed Is Here, But Watch Out

BTC’s recent bull run seems to have affected investors’ sentiment. Today, the popular Fear & Greed Index surged to “greed” territory of 73, a level last observed in January this year.

BTC Fear and Greed
BTC Fear and Greed Index, Source: alternative.me

The metric tracks numerous segments, such as price volatility, social media comments, and surveys, to determine the momentary investor feelings toward BTC. 

The predominantly bullish sentiment might sound encouraging, but one should keep in mind Warren Buffett’s advice, who once urged people “to be fearful when others are greedy and to be greedy only when others are fearful.”

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is another indicator worth monitoring. The momentum oscillator measures the speed and magnitude of the latest price changes and varies from 0 to 100. It helps traders spot potential trend reversals, as readings above 70 typically signal that the asset could be overbought and headed for a pullback. Currently, the ratio stands at almost 75.

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How Saylor’s Strategy Transformed Bitcoin into a Deflationary Asset: Details

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By being pre-programmed to have only 21 million bitcoins ever to exist, the largest cryptocurrency’s model is not, by definition, deflationary. After all, new BTC is mined every day, and none is being destroyed in the traditional sense of the word, which is the opposite of deflationary.

However, CryptoQuant’s CEO explained how Strategy and its co-founder, and BTC champion, Michael Saylor, made bitcoin into a deflationary asset.

Is BTC Deflationary?

By definition, deflationary means that the asset’s supply is designed to decrease over time. So, by that explanation, the newly minted BTC every day (currently ~450 BTC/day) does not put the cryptocurrency into that category. Someone would argue that BNB should be there since it has a burning mechanism to reduce the overall supply from 200,000 to 100,000.

Ethereum also made some progress on that matter, but that’s a different and rather controversial topic (and it doesn’t really work as promised, at least not always).

In BTC’s case, though, there’s one big (un)spoken hero who deserves a big “thank you” from Bitcoin Maxis, according to CryptoQuant’s chief exec, Ki Young Ju (even though he deleted the original post with the thank you note). In the updated one, he explained that Michael Saylor, through the company he co-founded, has turned Bitcoin into a deflationary asset because the entity is “buying BTC faster than it’s mined.”

CQ’s CEO determined that Strategy’s strategy (yeah, we get how it sounds) not to sell at any cost has turned its massive stash of over 555,000 BTC into an illiquid supply. This means that MSTR’s holdings are equal to -2.23% annual deflation rate for bitcoin. The percentage could be even higher when we examine other “stable institutional holders” who have incorporated the HODL strategy.

555,450 and Counting

The company began its massive accumulation spree in September 2020 when it was called MicroStrategy and Saylor was still CEO. At a time when bitcoin was fighting to stay above $10,000 (yes, one zero less than now), the NASDAQ-listed business intelligence software firm bought 21,454 BTC via 78,388 off-chain transactions.

In the following year, the cryptocurrency’s price skyrocketed to an all-time high of almost $70,000. The company kept buying. Then, the asset plunged deep below $20,000 following the FTX crash as well as many other industry blow-offs. The firm continued accumulating, even though its stash was now well in the red.

The 2024 US elections only strengthened Strategy’s conviction, and the firm now owns 555,450 BTC, valued at almost $58 billion at current prices. This puts its holdings in an unrealized profit state of nearly $20 billion.

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