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Coinbase Premium Turns Positive in Early July: A Signal of Renewed Institutional Interest?

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The Coinbase premium turned positive in early July after a period of concern following a dip in mid-May

According to research from Kaiko, this could hint at a resurgence of institutional interest in Bitcoin.

Renewed Institutional Interest

The Coinbase premium, which measures the difference between hourly bitcoin prices on Coinbase’s BTC-USD pair and Binance’s BTC-USDT pair, is a key indicator of institutional sentiment in the cryptocurrency market.

On July 1, crypto analyst David Lawant pointed out that the Coinbase premium had fallen to worrying lows. He recalled a similar occurrence where a major crypto rally followed months after the premium had turned negative.

His analysis suggested that this metric could once again signal an upcoming market rally. By July 15, the premium surged to a two-month high, reinforcing Lawant’s bullish outlook.

According to Kaiko, this positive turn in early July followed its lowest level since the Terra collapse in 2022, witnessed at the end of June. Given that institutional trading volume makes up over 80% of activity on Coinbase, the premium is often seen as a measure of institutional sentiment.

Historically, the Coinbase premium has been closely linked with major market events. For instance, the collapses of Terra and FTX significantly reduced institutional demand for Bitcoin, causing the premium to dip into negative territory. However, the recent positive shift in the premium suggests an increase in institutional interest in BTC.

Kaiko also noted that the recent rise in the Coinbase premium may have been influenced by the increased volatility of Tether’s USDT. This volatility coincided with the European Union’s implementation of the Markets in Crypto-Assets Regulation (MiCA), imposing stringent requirements on stablecoin issuers.

Tether, currently non-compliant with these regulations, faced restrictions for European Economic Area (EEA) users by major cryptocurrency exchanges. Consequently, USDT lost its peg to the USD at the end of June but managed to recover by early July on most exchanges despite continued struggles on less liquid platforms like Binance.US.

Spot-Driven Rally

Market analyst HornHairs interprets bitcoin’s largest Coinbase premium in two months as a sign that the current rally is primarily driven by spot buying. This suggests that the rally, if sustained, will be led by altcoins within the Bitcoin and Ethereum blockchains, given their prominence as the first and second-largest networks in the crypto industry.

When bitcoin commands a higher price on the largest U.S. exchange, it indicates significant buying pressure from U.S. investors. This is particularly noteworthy because spot-driven rallies are typically seen as more sustainable and less risky compared to those driven by speculative derivatives products. Spot-driven rallies are considered healthier for the market, providing a more stable foundation for future growth.

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Is Ripple (XRP) Gearing up for Another Bull Run? (Analysts Weigh in)

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TL;DR

  • XRP’s price has been quite volatile over the past few weeks and some analysts predict an upcoming dip before the asset could head toward new peaks.
  • ETF approval prospects, increased whale accumulation, and RLUSD’s expansion could enhance XRP’s adoption and drive upward momentum.

What Could be Next?

The start of the month has been quite turbulent for Ripple’s native token, with its price briefly tanking below $2 during the crypto crash of February 3. XRP bulls reacted almost imminently to the downside and pushed the valuation to around $2.80 a day later.

However, the asset couldn’t keep the momentum, dropping below $2.50 on February 5. In the following days, the bears continued to prevail, and XRP is currently trading at around $2.42 (per CoinGecko’s data).

XPR Price
XPR Price, Source: CoinGecko

One person paying close attention to XRP’s performance as of late was the popular X user CRYPTOWZRD. They believe the asset closed the weekend “indecisively” but expect a push to the $2.80 resistance level. On the other hand, the analyst outlined $2.05 as a major support zone. 

“I expect to see further upside pressure from this region to get the next long opportunity. A positive Bitcoin will be welcomed,” they added.

Another individual who chipped in is the X user Sjuul, who predicted a short-term rally above $3. However, the analyst warned that the asset might have a bumpy ride before reaching that peak, envisioning a potential plunge to $2.10. 

“A sweep at around $2.10 would be an ideal area to do some business,” Sjuul claimed. 

The Bullish Signals

Besides the optimistic predictions from multiple analysts, there are some factors indicating that XRP could indeed be preparing for another leg up. 

Such an example is the possible approval of spot XRP exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in the USA. Recall that on February 6, Cboe BZX Exchange lodged 19b-4 filings on behalf of Canary Capital, WisdomTree, 21Shares, and Bitwise. The US SEC now must approve or reject the applications within 240 days. 

If given the go-ahead, American investors would have more opportunities to invest in Ripple’s native token, which could push its price upward.

Next on the list is the whales’ activity. Ali Martinez recently disclosed that large investors purchased 520 million XRP (worth over $1.2 billion at current rates) during the latest dip. This move decreases the available supply, potentially leading to a rally (assuming demand doesn’t head south).

Last but not least, we will touch upon the advancement of Ripple’s stablecoinRLUSD. The product, pegged 1:1 to the American dollar, officially saw the light of day in mid-December, with many leading cryptocurrency exchanges embracing it.

Its further progress could strengthen Ripple’s ecosystem, boost XRP’s utility and adoption, and potentially lead to upward price pressure.

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Ethereum Tops Bitcoin in Weekly Inflows for the First Time in 2025: CoinShares

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Ethereum took center stage last week as its price dumped toward $2,100, sparking a surge in investor interest. The leading altcoin saw substantial buying during the dip, which resulted in impressive inflows of $793 million.

This was the first time in 2025 that Ethereum surpassed Bitcoin in terms of capital inflows.

According to the latest edition of CoinShares’ “Digital Asset Fund Flows Weekly Report,” Bitcoin followed behind as it attracted inflows of $407 million. Globally, exchange-traded products (ETPs) now account for 7.1% of Bitcoin’s total market capitalization, making them the largest single holder. Short-Bitcoin products experienced modest inflows of $0.1 million.

Additionally, XRP and Solana gained traction with inflows of $21 million and $11 million, respectively. Sui and Cardano also saw investor interest, bringing in $4.3 million and $2.6 million. Multi-asset products performed well, accumulating $14.4 million in inflows over the past week.

Zooming out, inflows into digital asset investment products continued for the fifth consecutive week, adding $1.3 billion and raising total inflows for 2024 to $7.3 billion. However, due to recent price declines, total assets under management in ETPs slipped to $163 billion from their late-January peak of $181 billion.

Despite market fluctuations, trading volumes held steady at $20 billion over the past week.

Regional investment trends showed strong inflows across multiple countries, with the United States leading at $1 billion. Next up were Germany, Switzerland, and Canada recorded significant investments of $61 million, $54 million, and $37 million, respectively, over the past week.

Brazil also attracted $23.1 million, followed by Sweden with $18 million and Australia with $4.7 million. However, Hong Kong emerged as an outlier from the trend as it experienced nearly $8 million in outflows.

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Dormant Wallet Awakens: Is Bitcoin at Risk After 14,000 BTC Moves?

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Approximately 14,000 bitcoins that had remained dormant for 7 to 10 years were moved on February 10th. Notably, they were not transferred to any exchanges, indicating that an immediate sale is unlikely.

Previous instances of similar activity did not always result in a drop in Bitcoin’s value, as noted by CryptoQuant’s analysis. It’s also worth noting that the average acquisition cost of these bitcoins is relatively low, which may influence the holders’ future decisions regarding potential sales, as noted by the on-chain crypto analytic platform.

At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at nearly $97,500, reflecting a minor increase over the past day.

Bitcoin Holder Activity

According to Glassnode’s recent observation, retail Bitcoin investors – holding 1 BTC or less – have significantly increased their accumulation rate since mid-December. This cohort of holders has purchased an average of 10,627 BTC per day, which represents a 72% acceleration compared to last year’s daily average of 6,177 BTC.

On the other hand, large-scale holders, or whales (owning over 1,000 BTC), have been offloading their holdings at a rapid pace since November 24, sending an average of 32,509 BTC per day to exchanges. This is a 9x increase in potential sell-side pressure compared to the yearly average.

Such a shift highlights a divergence in market behavior, as retail investors are accumulating aggressively while whales continue to distribute. Notably, retail investors had previously sold into market strength when Bitcoin surpassed $100,000 in November. The ongoing trends suggest a redistribution of BTC from larger to smaller holders, which could impact the asset’s trajectory in the coming months.

Strategy Resumes Bitcoin Accumulation

Unlike whales, institutions have continued to amass the world’s largest cryptocurrency. For instance, Strategy, formerly known as MicroStrategy, has restarted its Bitcoin accumulation after a brief pause.

Co-founder Michael Saylor announced the latest purchase of 7,633 BTC for $742.4 million at an average price of $97,255. This brings the company’s total holdings to 478,740 BTC, acquired for $31.1 billion. At the current prices, the firm now holds over $46.6 billion in BTC, securing a paper profit of more than $15 billion.

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