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Coinbase: Speculators are responsible for cryptocurrency market decline

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Analysts at Coinbase assure that long-term bitcoin holders hardly ever sell VTCs in the falling market.

Coinbase’s “Elusive Bottom,” a June report, said miners and companies forced to liquidate their positions to remain solvent amid a liquidity drain demonstrated: the industry is facing credit risks, not a crisis.

The number of bitcoin holders has dropped to 77%, although back in early 2022 the figure was 80%. The report also states that bitcoin has managed to show that it is a strong asset. The number of long-term holders was over 60%. This is even higher than at its peak in December 2017. The situation was not even affected by the high turbulence in the market. Coinbase says that centralized blockchain lenders (CeFi) increased their short-term debt at the peak of the bull trend.

“They were taking huge loans on DeFi protocols and shrinking capital to counterparties that were paying even higher interest rates. Some counterparties had duration mismatches and serious re-listing of assets on their books” provided to hedge funds and other entities,” the report said.

The report’s authors believe that the credit crunch was building up until a severe correction hit the market, reinforcing a kind of contagion effect that quickly spread through the market.

Compounding the ongoing credit crisis, listed miners, who had taken out huge loans secured against bitcoins or mining equipment during a bullish trend, were forced to sell their positions amid falling asset values. But since the top 28 publicly traded mining companies account for only 20% of Bitcoin’s hash rate, their sales don’t have a significant impact on trading volume.

Analysts at Glassnode argue that the massive drop in the market has led to a “flight of tourists and margin traders.” 

Hoarders continue to accumulate bitcoins, and the pace has increased significantly over the past month. Small holders, who hold no more than 1 BTC in their wallets, have purchased nearly 60,500 BTC in a month. And this is “the most aggressive pace in history.”

Activity in the Bitcoin network has decreased noticeably – in November there were more than 1 million active addresses daily; now the figure is about 870,000. At the same time, if you count exactly the market participants – companies and holders with multiple wallets – their number even reaches 244,000 per day.

The number of daily transactions, meanwhile, remains at about the same level. On the one hand, it speaks about the lack of demand from new market participants. On the other hand – it shows the intention of long-term investors to keep coins further.

Cryptocurrency

Bitcoin Price Crashes Below $100K as Iran Votes to Close Straits of Hormuz

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Bitcoin’s price has crashed below $100,000 for the first time since May 25th, charting a decline of around 4% in the past 24 hours alone. The cryptocurrency is down 5.5% throughout the last seven days.

BTCUSD_2025-06-22_17-42-47
Source: TradingView

The market downturn has also caused a broader selloff amongst altcoins, most of which are deep in the red, resulting in almost $1 billion worth of liquidated positions, according to CoinGlass.

As CryptoPotato reported earlier today, the US joined the war between Israel and Iran, striking three strategic nuclear Irany sites.

In response, some media reports indicate that the Iranian Parliament has voted in support of closing the Strait of Hormuz – one of the world’s most criticial oil transit chokepoints.

This resulted in immediate increase in oil prices, which are up almost 1% on the day, sparking international fears of inflation and economic turmoil. Traders are seemingly derisking and it’s interesting to see how deep this correction will extend.

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Bitcoin Demand is Drying Up, What Does This Mean? (CryptoQuant)

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As bitcoin (BTC) attempts to recover from the effects of tensions in the Middle East, demand for the digital asset is drying up. Market experts from the on-chain intelligence company CryptoQuant have discovered that Bitcoin demand is entering a slowdown period.

According to the latest CryptoQuant weekly report, the decline in Bitcoin demand comes after a period of acceleration that pushed the price of BTC towards $112,000. Demand-momentum metrics are currently showing their most negative readings on record — -2 million BTC.

Bitcoin Demand is Weakening

CryptoQuant revealed that Bitcoin spot demand has continued to grow but at a decelerated expansion rate. Apparent demand growth has fallen to 118,000 BTC over the last 30 days, compared to 228,000 BTC recorded on May 27. The metric is also below its 30-day moving average, indicating that the demand for BTC is weakening.

Bitcoin whale and spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs) have halved their purchases. The expansion of whale balances has fallen to 1.7% month-over-month (MoM) from 3.9% as of May 27. Daily BTC purchases from ETFs are also down from an April 23 local peak of 9,700 BTC to 3,300 BTC today.

Additionally, demand from new participants entering the Bitcoin market is low, and overall demand momentum has turned negative. Short-term holders now account for 4.5 million BTC, a decline of 0.8 million BTC from the 5.3 million BTC they controlled as of May 27.

Furthermore, investors in the futures market have sold their BTC to lock in profits and are currently opening new short positions. CryptoQuant said its Bitcoin Traders’ Behavior Dominance metric shows that participants offloaded their coins to take profits after BTC hit $110,000 last week. Afterward, they opened fresh short positions as BTC below $105,000 amid rising tensions between Israel and Iran.

What to Expect

For BTC to experience a sustained rally, whales and spot ETFs need to increase their demand for the cryptocurrency. New investors also need to buy BTC from the old ones, thereby expanding the balances of short-term holders.

If demand continues to decline, BTC could plummet below $100,000 and fall to the support zone near $92,000. The crypto asset was hovering around $102,700 at the time of writing following the attacks from the US against Iran.

Meanwhile, CryptoQuant has identified $92,000 as the Traders’ On-chain Realized Price, which often acts as price support during bull markets. If BTC falls below this level, it could plunge to $81,000, which has been marked as the lower band of the Traders’ On-chain Realized Price.

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Max Keiser Predicts $800K BTC from ‘Bond Apocalypse,’ Markets Eye $93K

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At the time of this writing, Bitcoin (BTC) was a couple of hundred dollars under $103,000, after dipping 4% in 24 hours, but Max Keiser is suggesting this volatility is mere tremors before a seismic surge to $800,000.

In a sit-down with Bitcoin Magazine’s Isabella Santos, the legendary BTC prophet claimed that the 10-year Japanese Government Bond (JGB) yield is the “lynchpin” threatening financial collapse and triggering Bitcoin’s epic moon mission.

The Road to $800K

In the interview, the Bitcoin bull laid out a doomsday scenario that could potentially lead to an astronomical spike in the king cryptocurrency’s price:

“There is one piece of data that is the lynchpin of the entire global financial system… It’s the rate of interest on the 10-year Japanese bond,” Keiser declared.

Currently, the yield is at about 3.5%, and any higher, the market watcher warned, could potentially lead to the collapse of the decades-long “yen carry trade,” where Wall Street borrowed near-zero-yen to fuel speculative investments.

“The Japanese economy is going to have to start selling U.S. Treasury bonds to stay solid, which would create a cascading event, what I call the bond apocalypse, where the global bond market crashes.”

He stated that if this were to happen, then trillions of dollars’ worth of capital would flee collapsing government debt and rush straight into BTC.

“In that environment, Bitcoin spikes to $500,000, $600,000, $800,000.”

Bearish Caution

While Keiser’s prediction might have gotten the crypto community on X talking, the market remains rather tense and confused. Pseudonymous trader Mr Wall Street hinted at a potential short-term nosedive to the $93,000 to $95,000 range, warning that the charts were “screaming for lower.”

Still, voices of resilience have been piping up, with analyst Axel Adler Jr. pointing to rising long liquidation dominance without a major price crash as a “good signal,” suggesting strong underlying buyer support.

Additionally, on-chain sleuth DeFiTracer sees cooling Middle East tensions due to Iran’s apparent openness to talks as well as Fed member Christopher J. Waller’s signal for July rate cuts as bullish signals. He suggested these catalysts are quietly shifting markets from uncertainty “into the trust phase.”

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