Crypto investors gave bitcoin prediction today in anticipation of Fed meeting
As the publication of the Fed’s next key rate decision approaches, the market has been flooded with bitcoin prediction analysis about BTC’s reaction to the event.
Bitcoin prediction today — A rare bottom
Popular in the crypto community analyst Peter Brandt, who managed to correctly predict the crypto winter of 2018, in his bitcoin forecast analysis, confirmed the passage of the cryptocurrency bottom. According to their observations, the coin formed a cyclical low in the form of a rare figure of technical analysis — a fulcrum (bottom) with two walls.
Reflexivity Research co-founder Will Clement also believes bitcoin has already passed the cyclical bottom. In his opinion, investors are at a stage of “disbelief” regarding the psychology of market cycles.
Bitcoin predictions 2023 — The psychology of market cycles
Analyst Oriel Ohayon joined bitcoin predictions today, predicting that the lows have been left behind. According to his observations, a bear market lasts about a year. After that comes a three-year bull market. Oriel-Ohayon bitcoin prediction is based on the theory of cyclicality. Recall that every four years the BTC network experiences a halving. A halving of the cryptocurrency’s mining rate, as the history of observation of the coin shows, triggers its growth. The reason is the formation of a shortage of bitcoins in the market amid the growing popularity of digital assets.
Bitcoin forecast analysis — where next
Many members of the cryptocurrency community support a positive outlook for bitcoin. Among the signals that can support the growth of the cryptocurrency, the network users highlight the long-awaited exit of BTC from the narrowing wedge, as well as the MACD indicator moving into the bulls’ zone and the coin’s approach to the 200-day curve on the weekly chart.
Many crypto investors believe that the nearest target for BTC may become $25K. Over time, analyst Lark Davis is sure that the positive dynamics will bring bitcoin to the level of $100K. At the same time, some participants in the crypto community do not exclude the possible correction of BTC before further growth.
Following the stock market
To recap, bitcoin went up at the beginning of January amid the positive dynamics of the stock market, behind which the coin, as history shows, repeats the movements. Market participants paid attention to the fact that the S&P 500 managed to break the border of the downward channel, in which it has been moving since early 2022.Bitcoin echoed the positive dynamics of the index.
Bitcoin forecast 2023 — S&P 500 Index and BTC
On Wednesday, February 1, at 10:00pm, the results of the Fed meeting will be released, including new key rate values. According to CME-FedWatch, the regulator may slow down the rate hike to 0.25pc. Recall that the first step to slow the Fed rate increase was recorded in December 2022 (+0.5 p.p.). Before that, the market experienced four rate hikes of 0.75 p.p.
Crypto-investors believe that the Fed’s policy easing could support the stock market, which, in turn, can support the positive dynamics of the cryptocurrency market.
Previously, we told you that Cardano officially announced the upcoming launch of stablecoin Cardano — Djed.
Cryptotraders lost more than $250,000,000 in liquidations after Fed rate hike
Cryptotraders had a tough day: almost 68,000 positions were liquidated on exchanges in the last 24 hours, and the total volume of liquidations exceeded $257,000,000. All this happened against the news of the US Federal Reserve’s rate hike and another Securities and Exchange Commission regulatory action against cryptocurrencies.
Cryptotraders lost $132,000,000 in BTC
Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Ripple were the leaders in the number of forcibly closed positions. BTC liquidations totaled almost $132,000,000; Ethereum traders lost $51,000,000. XRP positions accounted for about $8,000,000 of liquidations. Bitmex exchange executed the largest order of $7.39,000,000.
Cryptocurrency market capitalization has declined 2% in the last 24 hours, but is still above the $1 trillion mark.
The weekly CoinShares report also recorded a massive outflow of funds for six consecutive weeks. During that period, nearly $500,000,000 was withdrawn from cryptocurrency platforms, with $113,000,000 coming from bitcoin. Analysts at the company believe the outflow is due to liquidity needs during the banking crisis rather than a negative outlook. The company mentions that a similar scenario was seen in March 2020 amid a COVID-19-induced panic.
Regulators continue to hunt the cryptobusiness
Another reason for the increased volatility in the market has been harsh action from U.S. regulators. Last night it became known that the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission sued cryptomagnate Justin Sun, accusing him of fraud and market manipulation.
The SEC also issued a notice of wrongdoing against Coinbase, the largest U.S. cryptocurrency exchange. The securities regulator sued Coinbase Global Inc, for some of the products it offers.
We previously reported that Bitcoin (BTC) tests $28,000, but onchain metrics urge caution.
Binance was caught circumventing KYC to register Chinese clients
Employees of the cryptocurrency exchange Binance help clients from China to bypass compliance and verification. CNBC writes about it, citing hundreds of corporate emails from exchange employees on Discord and Telegram. It is reported that Binance has helped over 200,000 users register, bypassing its own security system. One case describes correspondence between a user from China and a Binance employee.
The employee under the pseudonym yaya.z suggested the user from China turn on a VPN, register as a Taiwanese resident and then return the location to China. Binance employees also advise customers not to use VPN services from the U.S., Hong Kong and Singapore, because the exchange does not provide services in those regions, writes CNBC. At the same time, Binance freely processes applications from U.S. email providers like Gmail or Outlook for registration.
The exchange even offers specialized mobile applications for customers from China. A CNBC reporter could download a special mobile application from Binance via email. At the same time, no VPN was needed to download the app, as the download was conducted through the domain of binance[.]com. It is also alleged that the exchange still verifies users with Chinese phone numbers.
An exchange spokesperson denied the existence of a special Chinese version of the mobile application. The exchange also added that it has improved the system to identify users from banned regions. CNBC notes that after providing evidence, Binance removed employee messages from corporate chats to circumvent KYC.
We previously reported that the Ethereum (ETH) price crossed the $1,800 mark, opening the way to $2,000.
Why cryptoanalysts expect bitcoin to fall
The market remains in a bearish trend and bitcoin (BTC) will resume its fall and test $16,000. There are two reasons:
The first statement can be confirmed or disproved by a technical analysis of the cryptocurrency market, but there is not enough additional information for the second.
The market capitalization of altcoins (ALTCAP) does hold nearly $605 billion of resistance. Although ALTCAP has risen above it several times, it didn’t develop above this area.
However, the daily RSI has broken through the bearish divergence trendline (green line). Such a breakout often precedes significant reversals into a bullish trendline. As a result, ALTCAP will move higher towards the $680B resistance area. If not, ALTCAP could fall back to the $518B support area.
There are also those who argue that bitcoin will test the $10000-$11000 area because there is a CME price gap that needs to be filled. The gap refers to the difference between the closing price of bitcoin futures on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) on Friday and the opening price on the following Monday.
We previously reported that Hong Kong has allocated another $50,000,000 to the crypto industry.
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