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Crypto Summer and ‘Banana Zone’ Altseason After BTC Halving: Raoul Pal

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CEO and co-founder of Real Vision Group and Global Macro Investor Raoul Pal said macro and crypto summer has already started in a post on X on March 25.

The prediction is part of his ‘Everything Code’ thesis that explains market movements due to macroeconomic influences.

It is all driven by liquidity, which bottomed at the end of 2022, he said before adding that “macro summer and fall are all about liquidity rising,” and liquidity should rise “all the way into the end of 2025.”

‘Banana Zone’ Altseason

Assets such as tech stocks and cryptocurrencies perform well during this period.

“Crypto summer has started and fully develops post-halving… it’s all the same ‘Everything Code’ cycle,”

He added that the “bigger game” is the altseason or “Banana Zone,” he said, presumably in reference to the massive gains and parabolic price charts for some altcoins.

“But the bigger game is yet to be played out as Alt season arrives and we fully enter the Banana Zone. The Banana Zone cometh and it is a huge wealth-generating machine.”

Pal’s “Everything Code” thesis, which he publicized in 2023 as the culmination of everything he has worked on since 2005, argues that today’s asset prices are primarily driven by central bank monetary policies and debt levels rather than traditional company fundamentals or economic growth.

High government debt levels globally require central banks to print money via quantitative easing (QE) to make interest payments, and this creates a cycle where more QE is needed every 3-4 years as debt rolls over.

This leads to the debasing of fiat currency, causing asset prices to be bid up, irrespective of company performance or valuations. Tech and crypto usually outperform in this environment as their growth potential offsets the debasing effects of QE.

Moreover, central banks are trapped in this “Everything Code” by larger demographic forces like slowing population growth, which reduces GDP growth and increases QE requirements to service escalating debts, argues Pal.

“The work we have done on the ‘Everything Code’ in Global Macro Investor has been central to my investing strategy and got us max long tech and crypto in Dec. 2022,” he stated.

Bitcoin Still Dominates

Raoul Pal is not the only investor predicting a big altseason ahead. Crypto investor “Alejandro” told his 106,000 X followers that the altseaon will come in the next two to four months.

Currently, Bitcoin still dominates, with a market share of 53.4%, according to TradingView. Only when this dips back to the mid-40% level, as it did during the last cycle, will the altseason really be in full swing.

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XRP Drops Following Ripple’s Latest Setback in SEC Legal Battle

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TL;DR

  • US District Judge Analisa Torres has ruled against the SEC and Ripple in their joint motion filed earlier this year.
  • The legal case between the two, which started over four and a half years ago, has yet to reach a conclusive end despite Garlinghouse’s announcement in March.

Recall that Judge Torres denied the joint motion filed by the two in May as well and set a new deadline for June 16 by which date Ripple and the agency had to refile by fixing all prior inconsistencies.

However, the latest update on the matter is another disappointment for both sides as the Judge has rejected the joint motion for an indicative ruling.

Ripple and the SEC had reached an agreement between each other, as the company had to pay a relatively minor penalty of $50 million, which is a lot less than what the agency initially sought ($2 billion) or the original ruling ($125 million).

Back in March, Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse triumphantly announced that the lawsuit had ended after over four years. However, the case continues, at least for now.

XRP’s price continues to drag as it has failed to capitalize on the overall market improvement in the past few days. The asset is down by over 3% on a daily scale, and trades well below $2.15.

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Last Time Bitcoin Did This, the Price Went From $60K to $100K

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Bitcoin (BTC) could be primed for a surge to $160,000, according to a key on-chain metric that foreshadowed two other record-breaking rallies.

This bullish outlook is emerging even as BTC battles volatility near $108,000, a psychological threshold tested amid geopolitical turbulence and conflicting accumulation patterns.

The Accumulation Blueprint

In his latest analysis, market watcher Axel Adler Jr. pointed out that Bitcoin’s Long-Term Holder (LTH) to Short-Term Holder (STH) ratio shows a very familiar accumulation pattern.

According to him, some of BTC’s most explosive rallies between 2023 and 2025 were preceded by sustained LTH/STH growth. One of the runs, which started when Bitcoin was trading around the $28,000 level, saw the king cryptocurrency go all the way to $60,000. Another LTH/STH ratio uptick provided enough momentum to push BTC from $60,000 to $100,000.

Adler has noted the same signal flashing at the $100,000 level:

“Today, at the $100K mark, we again see sustained growth in the LTH/STH ratio,” noted the expert. “This accumulation phase could last 4-8 weeks, after which, by analogy with previous cycles, a powerful upward reversal is likely.”

Applying a conservative 1.6x multiplier to Bitcoin’s current price, he projects a $160,000 target by the end of August.

Giving more credence to the outlook, prominent trader Titan of Crypto identified a bull flag formation on BTC’s daily charts, suggesting a potential breakout to $137,000. He added that the MACD indicator was also on the verge of a bullish crossover, a move often viewed as a trigger for price momentum shifts.

Technical and historical indicators also bolster Adler’s thesis. For instance, the Bitcoin Rainbow Chart places the crypto asset firmly in the “BUY” zone, a scenario comparable to November 2020, just prior to it setting off on a 450% ROI surge, and May 2017, before the same metric boomed 1,400%.

Market Outlook

This activity coincides with broader geopolitical and market forces. On June 25, Bitcoin briefly touched $108,000 following remarks by U.S. President Donald Trump on easing tensions in the Middle East.

Prices have since cooled slightly, with BTC changing hands at around $107,653 at the time of this writing. While a modest 0.7% gain in the last 24 hours, the price reflects a 1.8% monthly dip.

Still, the asset’s nearly 3% uptick in the last seven days puts its performance slightly ahead of the rest of the crypto market, which only managed to go up 1.6% in that period. However, the sideways movement saw BTC underperform versus tech stocks like Nvidia (+9.15%) and Oracle (+32.5%), raising questions about capital rotation.

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Not Just TRUMP: MELANIA-Linked Wallets Offload Large Holdings Amid 98.4% Price Dump

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TL;DR

  • The team behind the second meme coin linked to the First Family has also been disposing of a large portion of the token in the past several months.
  • According to on-chain data shared by Lookonchain, they have already sold more than 8% of the total MELANIA supply.

The post indicates that the team has cashed out over $35 million in MELANIA over the past four months from 44 wallets related to them.

Within this timeframe, the meme coin related to the FLOTUS experienced a massive price dump. It peaked at $8.5 hours after its launch but quickly started to lose value.

In the past 24 hours, the asset has plunged to $0.2, which represents a 98.4% price dump within just several months.

Thus, the MELANIA team has followed the example set by those operating the TRUMP token. CryptoPotato reported numerous times in the past that wallets linked to the POTUS meme coin had disposed of enormous portions of the token.

The most recent example was quite controversial as it came just hours before the US launched a missile attack against Iran, after which the entire crypto market turned red, including the TRUMP meme coin.

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