Cryptocurrency exchange rates in October 2022 — cryptocurrency price analysis
Bitcoin (BTC), Ethereum (ETH) and most altcoins finished September with losses. Market participants hope that the long-expected correction in current cryptocurrency rates will start in October.
Сryptocurrency price analysis
Macroeconomic factors created a bearish mood in financial markets, increasing pressure on cryptocurrency rates. The amount of fees reflects network activity and people’s willingness to use cryptocurrency. The bitcoin network generated just under $30 million in commissions during the past quarter, down 30% from the second quarter of 2022, when the amount of commissions received reached $49.2 million.
Commissions on the Ethereum network dropped nearly 80%, from $1.29 billion in Q2 to $264 million in Q3. However, despite the drop in onchain activity, the bitcoin exchange rate consolidated in a relatively narrow range, and ETH strengthened 30% quarter over quarter.
Also, net flows reflect neutral sentiment on BTC and a clear bullish sentiment on ETH. About $50 million worth of bitcoins entered centralized exchanges in the third quarter, compared to more than $192 million in outflows in the second quarter. ETH outflows from exchanges exceeded $1 billion for the fourth consecutive quarter, with $57 million more ether flowing off exchanges in the third quarter.
What to watch out for in October
In September, bitcoin didn’t consolidate above the psychologically significant barrier of $20,000. As long as there is no demand for bitcoin from whales and retail investors, a sustained upward trend in cryptocurrency exchange rates is only a dream. Santiment’s onchain statistics for whales show no indication that whales are accumulating BTC. Nor is there evidence of high utilitarian demand.
Bitcoin whales with assets between 100 and 10,000 coins, continue to get rid of BTC. This affects current cryptocurrency rates. Over the past year the number of such addresses has decreased to 3.5% of the volume of coins on much smaller addresses, which does not have a significant impact on price dynamics. Only in September whale stocks decreased by 0.4%. In October, an important factor for the market will be signs that whales are moving into an accumulation phase.
The number of unique BTC moving from one address to another is still small. In this regard, the NVT indicator is giving a bearish signal for the second month in a row. An increase in this indicator will be a bullish signal for current cryptocurrency rates.
The dynamics of BTC funding rates are another disturbing trend. When the price is not falling, traders actively accumulate long positions. As soon as they become large enough, another price dump occurs, because traders try to enter short positions temporarily, but then give up and buy again.
Thus, these indicators will be crucial in determining the dynamics of cryptocurrency rate exchanges. A reversal of these onchain indicators will be a bullish signal for BTC, ETH, and the all-market.
Previously, we reported on TOP 5 airdrops of October that should not be missed.
Tether’s CTO speaks out about the likelihood of a default in the U.S.
Paolo Ardoino, the technical director of Tether, the stablecoin issuer, has stated that the probability of a potential default in the U.S. is low due to the “catastrophic” impact it would have on the U.S. economy. This was reported by The Block.
“This story is about a potential U.S. default, which, by the way, I don’t think will happen – I mean, it would be catastrophic for the U.S. economy. I think everybody is going to sit back and watch what happens,” Ardoino said.
He also speculated on events that could trigger an illiquid market. Although bitcoin (BTC) has rebounded from under $20,000 to about $27,000, he noted that there is less room now for volatile investments as interest rates rise.
“Overall, even though Tether’s market capitalization has increased, the stablecoin market as a whole has declined by approximately 23% from its all-time high. Because, at the end of the day, people would rather sit back and earn interest,” he said.
However, according to Ardoino, there is one optimistic scenario in which U.S. inflation would decrease if the Fed stops raising interest rates.
Earlier, Circle, another stablecoin issuer, began adjusting its reserve structure out of concern for a potential U.S. default. Circle CEO Jeremy Aller stated that the company prefers short-term Treasury bonds that mature no later than June. This decision is intended to protect the company in case the U.S. government is unable to address its debts.
In early May, U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen mentioned that the U.S. could face default by June if the country does not raise the national debt ceiling. However, the Biden administration does not want to increase the ceiling by more than $30 trillion based on the Republicans’ terms.
Earlier we reported that the EU wants to limit leverage in crypto-trading.
Dogecoin surpasses Ethereum in the number of transactions
The Dogecoin blockchain is currently experiencing a surge in user activity, processing more transactions than Ethereum. Last week, the number of Dogecoin transactions exceeded 7.9 million, surpassing Ethereum by 500,000 transactions and more than doubling the number of transactions on the Bitcoin network. In comparison, the average daily number of DOGE transactions has been around 30,000 since 2015.
The primary reason for this growth is the user interest in the new DRC-20 token standard. In early May, crypto enthusiasts introduced the Cardinals update, enabling the deployment of “digital artifacts” based on the blockchain. Similar to BTC and Satoshi, one DOGE is now equivalent to 100 million “elons.” With the deployment of DRC-20 tokens, users can define values such as the issuance size, limitations, the ability to “burn” tokens, and specific requirements like the mining reward size.
Dogecoin “cardinals” lack infrastructure
A few transactions involving DRC-20 tokens can be found in almost any blockchain, typically accompanied by a fee of 0.001 DOGE ($0.000071). However, it is currently impossible to determine their exact number since there are no tools available to sort the issue. This makes it challenging to quantify the number of Dogecoin tokens mined per minute.
Nevertheless, the DRC-20 ecosystem is still significantly smaller compared to its “big brother.” The adoption of BRC-20 has progressed noticeably in recent weeks, as the availability of infrastructure such as wallets and marketplaces makes trading tokens of the new standard much easier. Additionally, BRC-20 has already been listed on several centralized exchanges, a milestone that Dogecoin has yet to achieve.
Earlier we reported that Blockchain.com sees the U.S. default as a plus for crypto.
Stably releases a stablecoin on the BTC network
A few days ago, a stablecoin pegged at a 1:1 ratio to the U.S. dollar and backed by fiat was introduced on the Bitcoin network (BTC). The token, called Stably USD (USDS), was issued by a company named Stably using the Ordinals protocol.
StablyUSD is not technically a new stablecoin. It has been in existence since 2019 and was recently converted to a BRC-20 standard token on the Bitcoin blockchain. According to a recent report, Stably is issued on 11 different networks, including Ethereum, BNB Chain, and Arbitrum, with a market capitalization of $7 million.
The launch of the new stablecoin has raised several questions among community members
Firstly, according to the company’s website, USDS has a total supply of $69.420 trillion, which is more than double the U.S. national debt and is likely a reference to meme culture. Additionally, the token’s documentation includes the address of a backup wallet with a $220 balance.
Earlier, the coin’s issuer tweeted that the stablecoin is backed and redeemable 1:1 by a U.S. dollar pledge, which is managed by regulated custodian Prime Trust. Stably also claimed that the asset undergoes monthly audits to ensure the presence of reserves. However, it is more likely that Prime Trust does not hold the reserves directly, as it is not FDIC-insured and instead utilizes accounts at multiple banks.
The USDS listing on CoinGecko reveals that the token reached an all-time high price of $9.89 on November 30 and subsequently plummeted to $0.05 on December 9, 2022. The liquidity on UniSwap’s decentralized exchange (DEX) is approximately $5,000, spread across two trading pairs.
Although Stably claims that USDS is the first stablecoin on the Bitcoin network, this is not entirely accurate. USDT was originally launched on OMNI, a BTC sidechain, in 2014. There are also other USDS-backed stablecoins currently operating on the blockchain, such as DoC on Rootstock.
Whether this will be another BRC-20 trend that quickly diminishes or marks the advent of a new era of stablecoins brought about by the controversial Ordinals protocol, only time will tell.
Earlier we reported that Meta unveiled its AI processor with 128 cores.
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