Former BitMEX CEO Arthur Hayes has warned that the global financial system is headed for its largest money-printing episode in history.

He argues that the U.S. faces economic collapse unless it injects at least $9 trillion into the economy, a move that would trigger Bitcoin’s rise to $250,000.

Hayes’s $9T Debt Doom Loop

Hayes’ analysis, dissected by writer Giovanni Incasa in a series of posts on X, hinges on unavoidable economic pressures converging into a perfect storm.

He argued that government-sponsored enterprises like Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac will require $5 trillion to stabilize the mortgage market, with an additional $4 trillion needed for banking system bailouts.

The crypto entrepreneur also contended the situation isn’t a policy choice but “economic physics,” where the debt-based system demands exponential growth, without which it would face “immediate systemic collapse.”

Hayes further highlighted a flight of foreign capital from Taiwan, South Korea, and Singapore that would repatriate dollars and accelerate the crisis. He believes this exodus would eliminate a crucial pillar supporting U.S. asset valuations, leaving the Federal Reserve as the sole purchaser of all assets.

Compounding this, the Maelstrom CIO pointed to the looming intergenerational transfer, where retiring Boomers must sell assets like stocks and real estate, but Millennials lack the capital or desire to buy at current prices. The solution? “The government prints money to create artificial demand,” facilitating wealth transfer via inflation.

These forces, Hayes asserted, make $9 trillion in new money a mathematical certainty within the current framework.

His final conclusion is stark: this tsunami of liquidity, chasing Bitcoin’s fixed 21 million supply, mathematically dictates a price target of $250,000. He claimed that the OG cryptocurrency has the capacity to “absorb the excess liquidity” without needing artificial support, unlike “government-dependent zombie” traditional assets.

Bitcoin’s Mixed Signals

Hayes’ $250,000 target isn’t particularly unique, with Tom Lee and Tim Draper having forecasted a similar price tag for BTC in the past.

CryptoQuant and TeraHash also previously issued projections for the asset in the $130,000 to $200,000 range based on historical Q4 strength, ETF inflows, potential Fed cuts, and MiCA implementation. However, Charles Schwab and Mike Novogratz took it a notch higher, estimating BTC will hit $1 million.

Despite the rosy long-term macro predictions, traders are currently focused on navigating potential volatility around the $105,000 support level as they await clearer signals on Fed policy and global trade tensions.

Bitcoin’s latest price action reflects a market grappling with this uncertainty. At the time of writing, it was trading around $115,727, showing modest resilience with a 1.6% 24-hour gain. It still remains down 2.4% over the past week, experiencing technical correction since its July 14 all-time high of more than $123,000.

TL;DR

• With US interest rate cut odds in September jumping to almost 80%, markets may start pricing in bullish momentum early – potentially benefiting BTC throughout August.
• Some analysts believe the asset has yet to enter its “thrill” and “euphoria” phases, which can lead to a renewed price rally.

Major Gains This Month?

Bitcoin (BTC) soared to an all-time high of over $123,000 in July but is currently trading well below $120,000. And while some have started doubting the asset’s potential to achieve new gains in the short term, here are three important factors that suggest the ongoing month can be highly beneficial.

Let’s start with an overlook of BTC’s performance in August during the past 11 years. The primary cryptocurrency has finished the month in the green zone only four times – in 2013, 2017, 2020, and 2021.

Interestingly, it has always managed to close August with some gains after a halving year. The latest halving, which reduced the miners’ rewards for adding new blocks in half, occurred in 2024. We have yet to see whether the current month will follow the historical trend or whether we will witness an exception.

We move on to the potential lowering of interest rates in the United States. The latest jobs data report indicated that the economy is weaker than previously expected, which means the Federal Reserve might be more inclined to drop the benchmark. According to Polymarket, the odds of such a move coming in September have soared from 35% to almost 80%.

Lower rates will make borrowing money cheaper and may encourage investors to take on riskier investments, such as those in cryptocurrencies like BTC. Markets often begin pricing in such events before the actual announcement, with enthusiasm and optimism building early.

Lastly, we will examine BTC’s MVRV, which compares the asset’s market capitalization to its realized capitalization, helping traders determine whether it is undervalued or overvalued. 

Over the past month, the ratio has fluctuated within the healthy range of 2.2 to 2.4, indicating that there is still potential for further appreciation. Based on CryptoQuant’s analysis, levels above 3.7 have historically aligned with cycle tops, while values under 1 have corresponded with market lows.

Waiting for These Phases

Many analysts believe BTC has much more fuel left to reach fresh peaks. X user Mags assumed that the asset is yet to enter the “thrill” and “euphoria” zones, predicting a rally above $200,000. However, this usually marks the end of the bull run and could be followed by a steep correction to approximately $100,000.

#Bitcoin is about to enter Thrill. pic.twitter.com/uz1D2uGnYm

— Mags (@thescalpingpro) August 7, 2025

There has been a sharp decline in altseason social engagement, with volume and dominance both retracing to April levels, according to Santiment.

The slump comes despite strong July catalysts such as regulatory progress, real-world asset tokenization momentum, Ethereum’s revival, and record ETF inflows. “Yet crowd attention hasn’t rotated into altcoins,” observed analyst Chyan on Wednesday.

“Without a Bitcoin breakout and renewed risk appetite, altseason remains on pause,” they said.

The chart shows spikes in social volume in late February, late May, and mid-July, but it has now fallen back significantly.

Altseason Hopes Fade

The analyst opined that market cycles when all altcoins went up are “a thing of the past” as the hype isn’t even close to the first quarter of 2024 when the Bitcoin ETFs launched.

However, Santiment did identify a few crypto assets that were trending at the moment, including Litecoin, Stellar, and USDC.

Altseason sentiment breaks down as $BTC holds range — narratives fail to ignite rotation@Santimentfeed shows a sharp decline in altseason social engagement, with volume and dominance both retracing to April levels. This comes despite strong July catalysts — regulatory progress,… pic.twitter.com/gISOmJKoKI

— Chyan | chyan.base.eth (@Chyan) August 6, 2025

CoinMarketCap’s altseason index is a low 36 out of 100, which suggests that it remains a long way off at the moment. It topped 50 in mid-June during the market rally but has fallen back along with the prices of most altcoins.

The Blockchain Center’s altseason index shows a similar low rating of 35, while Bitget’s altcoin season index is an even lower 34. All three indexes report that the best-performing altcoins over the past month are memecoins.

Bitcoin dominance is also an indicator of the approach of altseason, and it remains high at 61.6%, according to TradingView. Its market share fell to a six-month low on July 21, but it has been uptrending again since, as the asset holds around $116,000 while most of the altcoins continue to bleed.

Nevertheless, Ethereum usually leads altcoins into a rally, and it too has been holding up and remaining within its range-bound channel.

Some analysts are still looking at previous bull market cycles and predicting the same again this year.

Altcoin market cap is following a clear pattern:

2017: Explosion
2021: Explosion
2025: Next in line?

History doesn’t repeat, but it sure does rhyme.

Altseason brewing?#Altcoins #Crypto #Altseason #DeFi pic.twitter.com/w3ez085f0u

— Crypto Captain (@CryptoCaptainCT) August 7, 2025