The research team of the world’s largest crypto exchange released a report featuring insights into the macroeconomic landscape and crypto market last week.

According to the report, the broader market experienced geopolitical shocks and a short squeeze, while the crypto sector saw rising potential for ether (ETH). Global markets remained relatively optimistic until the end of the week, when macroeconomic instabilities triggered price reversals.

Markets Shake Amid Middle East Tensions

At the beginning of the week, markets saw a strong rebound, fueled by improved relations between U.S. President Donald Trump and billionaire businessman Elon Musk. Their public dispute the week before had led to a broad sell-off across cryptocurrencies and the equities market.

However, the potential reconciliation between the two men, coupled with solid economic data and progress on trade agreements between the U.S. and China, fueled a significant rebound in risk assets. The recovery continued from Monday until Thursday, when renewed geopolitical tensions in the Middle East made the headlines.

Binance found that reports of cross-border military activity and regional strikes caused a negative reaction across asset classes, with S&P futures, cryptocurrencies, and bond yields plummeting. Contrarily, oil and gold prices surged due to their reputation as safe-haven assets.

ETH Sees Positive Developments

Analysts expect the crypto market to recover soon; however, the historical data supporting this prediction is mixed. In January 2020, cryptocurrencies were not negatively affected by tensions between the U.S. and Iran. Instead, they rallied in the short term.

Conversely, digital assets declined during the onset of the Russia-Ukraine conflict in February 2022; however, it did not lead to a prolonged downturn, as the market recovered within a few weeks. Analysts expect the same to be the case this time, with cryptocurrencies recovering in a few weeks.

Moreover, the crypto market is witnessing a broader regulatory shift, with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission’s (SEC) chairman, Paul Atkins, becoming more accommodating with decentralized finance (DeFi). He has promised clearer regulatory guidance for the sector, and Binance believes this could push the area to outperform others, bolstering Ethereum as the largest DeFi ecosystem.

Ethereum has seen several developments that could increase the possibility of an altseason. The SEC recently made clarifications that enable Ethereum exchange-traded funds (ETFs) to offer staking, making them yield-bearing products. Spot Ethereum exchange-traded products (ETPs) have also not experienced a single day of net outflows since May 16. This streak is a first for ETH and longer than any seen in the history of spot Bitcoin ETPs.

Bitcoin’s price experienced substantial volatility yesterday when Israel struck Iran, but the asset has remained a lot calmer today when the roles reversed.

Many altcoins have started to recover from the Friday crash, including HYPE, which has risen back above $42.

BTC Calm Despite Attacks

The business week started on the right foot for BTC as the asset broke out of last weekend’s consolidation range and shot above $110,000 on Monday. Although it was stopped there, it managed to remain close to that level for the next couple of days.

More positive news emerged on Wednesday, including a trade deal between the US and China as well as better-than-expected CPI data, but BTC failed to maintain its run. Just the opposite, it lost some ground and went back down to under $107,000.

The bulls took it north to $108,500 on Thursday, but the geopolitical tension in the Middle East skyrocketed that night as Israel fired countless missiles against Iran, killing over 70 people in the process. Bitcoin’s prices reacted immediately with a price plunge that drove it south by over five grand since Thursday’s peak to under $103,000.

Nevertheless, it recovered some ground on Friday and even challenged $106,000 at one point. It couldn’t breach that level but still trades above $105,000 now, which is somewhat surprising as Iran retaliated against Israel last night. Still, there are some warning signs about its future price trajectory if it fails to remain above $100,000.

For now, though, its market cap has jumped to almost $2.1 trillion on CG, while its dominance over the alts is at 61.5%.

Alts Rebound

Most altcoins suffered yesterday but are with minor gains on a daily scale. Ethereum has returned above $2,500 after a small increase, while Ripple’s cross-border token has defended the $2.15 support. SOL, DOGE, ADA, and AVAX are also slightly in the green, while BCH and SHIB have posted more impressive gains.

However, HYPE has stolen the show once again from the larger-cap alts, having surged by almost 8%. As a result, the asset now trades close to its all-time high of roughly $43. Other notable gainers from the past day include WBT, Fartcoin, PI, and ICP.

The total crypto market cap has recovered over $60 billion and is back to $3.4 trillion on CG.

Ripple’s cross-border token has failed to recapture its momentum from the late 2024 and early 2025 run when it skyrocketed from $0.6 to $3.4. In the past few months, the asset has been stuck in a consolidation phase within a tight range between $2.1 and $2.4, with a few brief and unsuccessful breakout attempts in both directions.

However, more recent data from Glassnode indicates that XRP is once again in the driver’s seat in terms of capital rotation, at least when compared to SOL, which could trigger a substantial shift in the narrative around the asset and potentially impact its price movements.

Realized Cap Changes

$XRP is pulling ahead again. Its 30D % change in Realized Cap just hit +4.2%, outpacing $SOL modest +1%. Capital is rotating faster into #XRP, hinting at stronger short-term conviction: https://t.co/cOSVts1PMm pic.twitter.com/W0eub7oGTe

— glassnode (@glassnode) June 13, 2025

The analytics platform’s graph shows that XRP dominated SOL in terms of 30D Realized Cap changes until the end of March. At the beginning of that month, Ripple’s token flew past $3 briefly, and even though it corrected slightly in the following weeks, it still stood above $2.6-7 for the most part.

However, then came the trade war escalation, and XRP’s price tumbled, alongside Glassnode’s metric. The situation changed briefly in early May as XRP was recovering from a plunge to $1.6 and returned above $2. SOL performed a lot better in the following month, but XRP has regained its lead in the past few days.

Consequently, Glassnode determined that this growing capital rotation into XRP hints at “stronger short-term conviction.”

Why So?

The primary narrative supporting XRP’s improving position is the renewed hope for spot Ripple ETF approvals. Most recently, the SEC greenlighted a Nasdaq crypto US settlement price index, which included Ripple’s token. Many analysts believe this opened the door even more for an XRP ETF in the States.

Polymarket’s current data shows a 89% chance for such a product to be approved in the US this year. Although SOL’s percentage is quite high as well, other experts noted that Ripple continues to expand its DeFi ecosystem, including the recent introduction of USDC on XRPL, which could further enhance its position.

Additionally, some noted that XRP is holding better because capital “chases regulatory clarity and event-driven hype, while SOL’s bounce potential is hampered by recent drawdowns and meme rotation fatigue.”