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Cryptocurrency

Economics of Bitcoin ATM market could hinder wider adoption 

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ATM service provider, Bitcoin of America, had carved out a slice of the market but recently closed shop in the United States State of Connecticut due to a lack of proper licensing.

The Connecticut Department of Banking (DoB) issued a cease and desist order against the company, accusing it of operating unlicensed crypto ATMs in the state. But the allegations didn’t stop there; the firm was also accused of facilitating scams by allowing transactions related to fraudulent activities.

In response to the challenges, Bitcoin of America released a statement claiming it would immediately halt all of its operations in Connecticut. While the decision marked the end of the company’s presence in the state, it also underscored the regulatory hurdles faced by crypto ATM operators, particularly in the United States.

The closure also sent ripples across the crypto community, leading many industry observers to question the long-term efficacy and utility of these machines.

Connecticut closure explained

Due to the nascency of the cryptocurrency industry, marrying digital currencies with conventional financial structures — as in the case of crypto ATMs — requires intricate regulatory supervision. This is particularly true in Connecticut, where the DoB oversees ATMs under the Money Transmission Act. 

The act requires that any service involving the transfer of money, including the conversion of traditional currency to cryptocurrency, must secure a money transmitter license. 

On May 22, the Connecticut DoB claimed that Bitcoin of America had not secured the necessary license to operate Bitcoin ATMs in the state. It further stated that four Connecticut Bitcoin ATM users were scammed out of tens of thousands of dollars via Bitcoin of America’s kiosks. 

The DoB stated: “Bitcoin of America, following the consent order, compensated these consumers with a total of $86,000. After facing criminal charges, Bitcoin of America is in the process of ceasing its operations in Connecticut.”

In a separate incident in March, state officials in Ohio seized 52 Bitcoin of America ATMs, as authorities suspected scammers were using the kiosks.

Operating crypto ATMs is harder than it looks

Jason Grewal, chief legal officer for Web3 security firm Sys Labs, told that running a crypto ATM involves much more than just acquiring a license. 

Operators in the U.S. must adhere to Anti-Money Laundering (AML) rules set by the Financial Crimes Enforcement Network, comply with the Bank Secrecy Act’s Know Your Customer (KYC) norms, and conform to the Internal Revenue Service’s requirements for reporting crypto transactions.

In Grewal’s opinion, such complexities could play a significant role in the waning popularity of these machines. In March alone, a staggering 3,627 cryptocurrency ATMs went offline, marking the most significant monthly decrease in the history of crypto ATMs. He said:

“Considering the shifting popularity of crypto ATMs, various factors seem to be at play. For one, the transaction fees imposed by these machines often exceed those on online exchanges, posing a deterrent for heavy users. Additionally, the necessity to satisfy complex regulations and licensing requirements can be challenging and potentially overshadow the perceived advantages of in-person crypto transactions.”

Further tipping the scales away from crypto ATMs are alternatives like decentralized exchanges (DEXs) and decentralized finance (DeFi) platforms. 

Lower transaction costs, universal access, superior privacy and a broader range of supported cryptocurrencies make these projects increasingly compelling to many people. DeFi platforms also offer features such as staking, yield farming and borrowing — services typically absent from crypto ATMs.

Grewal believes that moving forward, crypto ATM operators will have to innovate and change to better serve the evolving needs of their consumers. 

Robert Quartly-Janeiro, chief strategy officer for cryptocurrency exchange Bitrue, told Primary companies currently dominate the crypto ATM market, something which needs to change for the market to grow and adoption to increase. 

Moreover, he believes that the physical location of crypto ATMs is also a major factor when it comes to engaging customers. He added:

“Ultimately, one of the key pillars for the mass adoption of crypto remains the ability to sell crypto for fiat currencies in-country. The landscape has changed slightly, so the need for crypto ATMs has changed economically, geographically, psychologically, as well as from an infrastructural standpoint.”

The economics of crypto ATMs

Most crypto ATMs in operation today run in collaboration with established companies like ChainBytes, LibertyX, CoinMe and others, which allow independent businesses to become “operators,” “partners,” or “hosts” for these machines. 

The return on investment depends on several factors, including the location of the business (e.g., commercial district, high-traffic area); the number of daily transactions; the average transaction size; the total expected revenue from transaction fees; and the marketing strategy to promote the crypto ATM in question.

According to crypto ATM firm Chainbytes, a single Bitcoin ATM can earn up to $3,000 monthly, with gross monthly revenues of $30,000.

Operating a crypto ATM presents several challenges as well. Regulatory complexities require operators to navigate often unclear laws, obtain necessary licenses, and comply with AML and KYC regulations. Security risks, both physical and digital, necessitate robust protective measures, adding to high operational costs that include machine maintenance and cash management. 

The inherent volatility of cryptocurrencies can also impact profitability, with significant value fluctuations potentially leading to financial losses. Operators must also maintain sufficient cryptocurrency and cash reserves to meet customer demand, as shortages could harm their reputation and business.

Who’s leading the global crypto ATM race?

Since the first crypto ATM debuted in a Vancouver coffee shop in 2013, the sector has evolved dramatically. Today, there are around 35,000 machines globally, transforming how people interact with digital currencies. 

The United States has the lion’s share of crypto ATMs globally. Source: Coin ATM Radar

The U.S. houses roughly 30,000 crypto ATMs, accounting for 86% of all such machines worldwide. 

Canada’s crypto ATM scene has also flourished over the last few years. As of Q1 2023, the country hosts 2,744 machines, while its European compatriot Spain boasts around 286 machines. 

Down under, Australia has also been making waves. After adding 99 ATMs in late 2022, it leapfrogged El Salvador and Poland to become the fourth-largest crypto ATM hub with around 473 kiosks.

The future of crypto ATMs

Despite the many hurdles impeding the growth of the crypto ATM market, the space is expected to grow significantly in the coming years. The market — valued at $71.9 million in 2021 — is projected to rise to $5.45 billion by 2030.

However, for the sector to thrive, it will be crucial for operating companies to obtain regulatory clarity. Physical and digital security measures must also be enhanced to protect the machines and the transactions they facilitate. This includes robust cybersecurity measures to prevent digital hacks and adequate physical security to deter theft attempts. 

Finally, efforts must be made to reduce the operational costs of running these machines. This could involve developing more cost-effective kiosks, optimizing cash management processes and exploring alternative business models. Thus, as we head into a future driven by crypto-enabled tech, it will be interesting to see how the future of the crypto ATM market continues to evolve and grow.



Cryptocurrency

These Indicators Suggest Bitcoin May Be at the Start of a Bear Market: CryptoQuant

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Analysts at the market intelligence platform CryptoQuant have identified concerning signals from on-chain valuation metrics that suggest bitcoin (BTC) may be at the onset of a bear season.

According to a CryptoQuant report, bitcoin’s correction is not unusual in terms of magnitude because such dips have been witnessed in past bull runs. However, the state of all valuation metrics suggests the leading cryptocurrency is either at deep value levels or in a deeper correction phase than typically seen during bull seasons.

BTC in Bearish Territory?

CryptoQuant said all Bitcoin valuation metrics indicate that the market is in bearish territory. The Bitcoin Bull-Bear Market Cycle Indicator is at its most bearish level in this cycle, while the Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) Ratio Z-score has plunged below its 365-day moving average.

The MVRV Ratio Z-score’s fall below its 365-day moving average indicates that bitcoin’s upward price momentum has become weak. Historical data reveals that when the MVRV Ratio and the Bull-Bear Market Cycle Indicator fall to their current levels, then BTC is either in a sharp correction or at the brink of a bear market.

Bitcoin demand is not left out. This metric is still in contraction territory, and whales have reduced their accumulation pace. Last week, Bitcoin’s apparent demand contracted at its fastest pace since July 2024, plummeting swiftly by 103,000 BTC. Besides whales, other large investors are seeing their annual rate of BTC accumulation fall significantly—from 368,000 BTC in January to 268,000 BTC today.

BTC Could Fall to $63K

With the growth of large investors’ holdings falling, U.S.-based spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) have become net BTC sellers – a trend that sharply contrasts their purchases in the same period last year.

CryptoQuant found that spot Bitcoin ETFs have cumulatively bought BTC worth $0.7 billion so far this year, a far cry from the $8.7 billion purchases seen this time in 2024. This indicates that these funds have been net sellers this year, putting additional downward pressure on bitcoin’s price.

Additionally, the volume of BTC flowing into the American crypto exchange Coinbase from other trading platforms has fallen below the 90-day moving average. This is evident in CryptoQuant’s Inter-exchange Flow Pulse, which has been in a period of price correction since February 13 while BTC was trading around $96,000. Coins often flow into Coinbase when demand is high.

Meanwhile, CryptoQuant analysts think BTC could plummet to $63,000 if it fails to hold the support level between $75,000 and $78,000. The asset was worth $82,000 at press time, and $63,000 represents the Trader’s minimum On-chain Realized Price minimum band.

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Cryptocurrency

Toncoin (TON) Skyrockets by Double Digits, Bitcoin (BTC) Holds Steady at $84K (Weekend Watch)

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Bitcoin’s price performance over the weekend continues in a calm fashion as the asset has remained close to the $84,000 level.

Most altcoins are slightly in the red on a daily scale, aside from Ton after positive news around Telegram’s founder, Pavel Durov.

BTC Stands Still at $84K

It was a highly volatile week for the primary cryptocurrency from the get-go. It all started on Monday with a six- grand price drop that drove the asset south to $80,000. Although it managed to defend that level at first and bounced off to $84,000, the bears kept the pressure on and it lost it on Tuesday.

At the time, the cryptocurrency plunged to a four-month low of under $77,000. The bulls finally intercepted the move and didn’t allow another price breakdown. In fact, BTC jumped above $80,000 and spiked to $84,000 on Thursday.

It was first stopped there despite the favorable US CPI data for February. Nevertheless, it shot up on Friday and jumped past $85,000 for the first time since the previous weekend. It has lost some ground since then, and it trades at around $84,000 for most of the weekend.

Its market capitalization remains stuck below $1.670 trillion, while its dominance over the alts is still just shy of 59%.

BTCUSD. Source: TradingView
BTCUSD. Source: TradingView

TON on the Rise

The biggest news within the cryptocurrency community yesterday came from France and concerned Telegram’s founder, Pavel Durov. After being arrested in August 2024, the French authorities finally returned his passport on Saturday, as announced by the TON Foundation.

Expectedly, Toncoin exploded immediately after the news broke by over 20%. Although it has retraced slightly since yesterday’s peak, it’s still up by double digits now.

MNT is the other notable gainer from the larger-cap alts, having surged by 8%. AVAX is up by 3%, while most other crypto assets are in the red, including XRP, DOGE, LTC, and ADA.

The total crypto market cap has shed about $30 billion since yesterday’s peak and is below $2.840 trillion now.

Cryptocurrency Market Overview. Source: QuantifyCrypto
Cryptocurrency Market Overview. Source: QuantifyCrypto
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Cryptocurrency charts by TradingView.

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Cryptocurrency

Bitcoin Price Analysis: This Key Resistance Could Prevent BTC’s Surge to $90K

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Bitcoin has recently rebounded from the critical $78K support level and is now testing a significant resistance at $85K.

If it manages to reclaim this level, the next target will likely be the $90K region.

Technical Analysis

By Shayan

The Daily Chart

BTC’s recent price action has seen a slight rebound from the ascending wedge’s lower boundary, which aligns with the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level at $78K. This confluence of support levels strengthens the likelihood of buyers defending this area in the mid-term.

However, Bitcoin has now headed toward a key resistance zone at $85K, which coincides with the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement level and the 200-day moving average. While a breakout above this region could trigger a surge toward the $90K threshold, the presence of sellers at this level suggests that further consolidation is the more probable short-term scenario.

The 4-Hour Chart

On the lower timeframe, Bitcoin’s recent upward movement has brought it close to the upper boundary of the descending wedge at $85K. This pattern often signals a bullish market rebound if the price breaches the upper trendline. If Bitcoin sustains its momentum and successfully breaks above this resistance, a rally toward the $90K level will likely follow.

However, given the current market conditions and the lack of strong buying demand, further consolidation within the wedge remains the more likely short-term outcome.

 

On-chain Analysis

By Shayan

The Realized Cap UTXO Age Bands (%) is a valuable on-chain metric that illustrates the distribution percentage of Bitcoin based on the duration they have been held.

According to the latest data, the percentage of coins held for 3 to 6 months has been rising rapidly, mirroring the accumulation patterns observed during the prolonged correction in the summer of 2024. This trend highlights a holding sentiment, where investors refrain from selling their Bitcoin despite the current market correction.

Historically, this type of resilience among Bitcoin holders has played a crucial role in forming market bottoms and igniting new uptrends. As long-term holders continue accumulating, the available supply in circulation decreases, making Bitcoin more scarce. When demand eventually picks up, this supply squeeze often leads to price surges, pushing Bitcoin toward new record highs.

Given this behavior, the data suggests that Bitcoin’s current market phase is more of a healthy correction rather than the start of a prolonged bear market. Many market participants still view Bitcoin as a long-term valuable investment, reinforcing the potential for an eventual bullish continuation.

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Disclaimer: Information found on CryptoPotato is those of writers quoted. It does not represent the opinions of CryptoPotato on whether to buy, sell, or hold any investments. You are advised to conduct your own research before making any investment decisions. Use provided information at your own risk. See Disclaimer for more information.

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