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ETH is up 20% for the week. Is this a bull trap?

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Ethereum gained 20% over the past week and continued to build on the gains this morning, hitting $1,412. Euphoria over the impending move to Proof-of-Stake or a bull trap?

As of this morning’s writing, Ethereum was well ahead of bitcoin regarding growth. Meanwhile, a popular crypto analyst and trader nicknamed Bluntz noted that ETH has recovered above its 200-week moving average. This could be a signal that the coin has hit bottom.

Recall that the growth rate of ETH picked up towards the end of last week after it became known that the Ethereum blockchain may move to a new Proof-of-Stake algorithm as early as September 19. This was announced by one of the developers of the project. Against this background, the exchange rate of ETH immediately jumped more than 12% to $1,300.

The developers plan to complete all of the updates to the test networks before the main network moves. For example, the Goerli test network has yet to “merge” (go through the Merge phase) with the new algorithm on August 11.

However, it’s too early to celebrate the victory. ETH is still trading 71% below its all-time high of November, and the crypto market continues to be dominated by gloomy sentiment.

Many industry analysts still expect a final surrender triggered by further interest rate hikes by the US Federal Reserve and gloomy news on the recession and inflation. In that case, bitcoin could head back under the $20,000 mark, and Ethereum would surely follow it southward as well.

If that’s the case, the 3-day ETH pummeling might just be a bull trap, since the coin has been in a downtrend for the past 8 months, and bear markets don’t usually end that quickly.

The number of ETH on the steaming blockchain is on the rise

Investors, however, continue to consistently accumulate ETH stocks. According to CoinShares, capital inflows from institutional investors into Ethereum-based products and funds have started to increase again, although investors’ positions on bitcoin have remained mostly short.

On July 18, analyst firm Glassnode reported that the number of addresses with more than 32 ETH on their balance sheet hit a 16-month high of 116,895, breaking the previous day’s record.

As a reminder, 32 is the smallest number of tokens to have on their balance validator nodes. However, many exchanges now offer various staking services, so in fact, an investor can engage in staking even with a smaller number of coins. 

According to Beacon Chain, there are currently 13,089,105 ETH in staking. At current prices, this is equivalent to about $18.3 billion and represents nearly 11% of the total number of coins in circulation.

Speculation periodically starts creeping around the market that a powerful wave of Ethereum sales should be expected after the Merge phase. However, developers have repeatedly confirmed that the coins will not be unlocked in an “all at once” format to maintain the security and performance of the network. 


Cryptocurrency

Bitcoin Price Tests $110K as Total Liquidations Near $300 Million

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Bitcoin’s price has managed to completely erase the losses from yesterday and it appears that bulls are on the run again.

At the time of this writing, BTC is trading at around $109,500, preparing to test the pivotal technical and psychological level of $110K, sitting right below the cryptocurrency’s all-time high.

BTCUSD_2025-07-02_19-15-08

Data from Coinglass shows that the total number of liquidations across the derivatives market currently sits at almost $300 million – a 32% increase compared to the previous 24 hours.

BTC leads the way with around $50 million in liquidations, where the majority of positions were short. In total, $190M out of the $300 million in forced-closed traders were betting on the price to go down.

Naturally, the altcoins are following suite and are also recovering and most of them are now trading in the green. It’s interesting to see if this will transition into a more sustained upward movement in the next few days.

Screenshot 2025-07-02 at 19.18.06
Source: Qunatify Crypto
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Ripple (XRP) Price Outlook: 2 Bearish and 2 Bullish Factors to Watch

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TL;DR

  • XRP’s recent dip comes alongside a drop in key on-chain metrics – like active accounts and executed transactions – hinting at declining user engagement and a potential short-term correction.

  • Despite the concerns, optimism remains high as Polymarket gives a 92% chance for a spot XRP ETF approval by end-2025, while negative exchange netflows suggest reduced immediate selling pressure.

Pullback on the Horizon?

Ripple’s XRP started July on the right foot, with its price rising to as high as $2.30. The uptrend, however, was short-lived, and it currently trades at around $2.17 (according to CoinGecko’s data).

Meanwhile, the decline of certain XRP metrics suggests the asset’s investors may have to endure a more substantial correction in the near future. Data shows that the number of active accounts, the number of executed transactions, and the number of newly activated accounts have headed south in the past few days.

This development points to reduced user engagement and utility in XRP’s ecosystem, which may lead to price stagnation or even a pullback. 

Interest in Ripple’s cross-border token has also waned over the past several months. Google searches involving the asset are currently far below the peak levels registered in December last year. This could mean that fewer new buyers are entering the market.

XRP Google Searches
XRP Google Searches, Source: Google Trends

The Bullish Signals

Every coin has two sides, so let’s also observe the factors that suggest Ripple’s native token might be on the verge of a renewed rally.

To begin with, XRP investors could gain significantly if a spot ETF receives regulatory approval in the United States. A growing list of major firms – such as Grayscale, Bitwise, Franklin Templeton, 21Shares, and others – have already expressed interest in launching such a product.”

According to Polymarket, there’s a 92% chance that a spot XRP ETF will be greenlighted in America before the end of 2025.

XRP ETF Chances
XRP ETF Chances, Source: Polymarket

The surge in odds follows the SEC’s recent approval of Grayscale’s request to convert its Digital Large Cap Fund (GDLC) into a spot ETFa fund that holds multiple cryptocurrencies, including XRP.

Next on the list is XRP’s exchange netflow, which has been predominantly negative in the last several weeks. This indicates that investors have switched from centralized platforms toward self-custody methods, reflecting a reduced immediate selling pressure.

XRP Exchange Netflow
XRP Exchange Netflow, Source: CoinGlass
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Who is Selling Their BTC at These Prices? Glassnode Reveals Bitcoin Profit Takers

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About a month ago, market analysts noted that profit-taking on the Bitcoin network was modest. However, that has changed.

The on-chain insights provider Glassnode has revealed that profit-taking on the leading digital network is ramping up again. This comes as Bitcoin (BTC) remains in a consolidation phase following weeks of upward movement.

BTC Holders Take Profits

According to Glassnode’s tweet, bitcoin’s realized profits hit $2.46 billion on June 30, while the network’s seven-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) spiked to $1.52 billion.

The SMA, which identifies trends by averaging prices over a specific period, is currently above its year-to-date (YTD) average of $1.14 billion. However, the metric is still below its November-December 2024 peak of approximately $4.5 billion.

The spike in Bitcoin’s seven-day SMA indicates that coin distribution on the network is on the rise. Mid-to-long-term BTC holders have been leading this profit-taking spree; Glassnode said investors aged three to five years have realized at least $849 million in profits. This cohort of market participants is followed by those aged seven to ten years, with $485 million in profits, and investors aged one to two years with $445 million.

Short-term BTC holders, those holding for under one year, have been cashing out the least gains, at less than $6 million.

Interestingly, older BTC holders have been leading the profit-taking for this cycle. CryptoPotato reported a rise in spending by this cohort in late May, which drove the aggregate volume for the one- to five-year cohorts to $4 billion, its highest level since February. While older investors take the lead, the bulk of the volume is coming from this particular group of Bitcoin holders.

Whales Are Redistributing Too

Glassnode’s latest report is further substantiated by an analysis from the institutional decentralized finance (DeFi) analytics platform, Sentora (previously known as IntoTheBlock).

The firm disclosed that wallets holding more than 1,000 BTC have been steadily reducing their balances. This indicates that although institutional money is flowing into Bitcoin, whales are still offloading their holdings.

It is worth mentioning that Sentora sees the redistribution by whales as a sign of a maturing market rather than weakness. Older whale coins being dispersed could become a dynamic that would strengthen Bitcoin’s long-term potential.

Meanwhile, BTC was still consolidating at the time of writing, hovering under $110,000 – a level, which it has remained confined to in the last few weeks.

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