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Ethereum ETFs To Haul $15 Billion Within 18 Months, Bitwise Predicts

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Ethereum spot ETFs will accumulate over $15 billion in net inflows within their first 18 months of hitting the U.S. market, predicted crypto asset manager Bitwise on Wednesday.

The firm’s year-and-a-half-long forecast would roughly match the net haul from Bitcoin ETFs ($14.4 billion) since their launch five months ago – from which excitement has helped drive BTC to new all-time highs.

Calculating Ethereum’s ETF Flows

Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan based his estimate on Bitcoin’s ETF figures and compared Ethereum to the overall size of Bitcoin’s market.

At present, Bitcoin’s market cap is $1.26 trillion, compared to Ethereum’s $432 billion market cap – implying a 3:1 asset ratio. Of said Bitcoin, $56 billion is locked within U.S. Bitcoin ETFs, which Hougan expects will rise to $100 billion by the end of 2025.

“By this logic, spot Ethereum ETPs will need $35 billion in AUM to reach parity,” he argued.

This figure doesn’t imply $35 billion of inflows, however. Firstly, Grayscale’s Ethereum Trust (ETHE) will immediately convert into an ETF at launch day with $10 billion from its outset, much like the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) converted holding $30 billion in assets. Factoring this in, Hougan reduces his estimate for ETF flows to $25 billion.

Still, the proportional differences between Bitcoin and Ethereum ETP sizes in other jurisdictions are almost identical. In Europe, Bitcoin ETPs hold €4.6 billion to Ethereum’s €1.3 billion. In Canada, Bitcoin ETPs control CAD 4.9 billion, while Ethereum-based funds own CAD $1.4 billion.

‘The fact that the split is roughly in line with the relative market capitalization of the two assets adds to my confidence that this kind of break-down reflects “normal” demand,” Hougan wrote.

Assuming a conservative ratio 78% BTC, 22% ETH as seen in in Europe, this puts Hougan’s estimate down to $18 billion for Ethereum ETF inflows.

Correcting For Cash And Carry

The estimate must also correct for the Bitcoin ETF market’s “carry trade,” Hougan said.

Analysts in recent months have highlighted that many institutions buying the Bitcoin ETFs are simply doing a “cash and carry trade” to earn risk-free yield, by longing the spot market while shorting the futures market. Since Bitcoin futures are often directionally long-biased, yields are usually quite high for this trade.

However, Hougan said the Ethereum basis trade is “not reliably profitable” enough for non-staked assets, meaning Ethereum ETFs won’t garner demand for this reason. “Removing carry-trade assets from our model cuts our flow estimate from $18 billion to $15 billion” he said.

With $15 billion of inflows, Hougan said the Ethereum ETF would be a historic success. Only four ETFs launched since January 2020 have gathered inflows at that level.

“ETH is one of the best-performing assets of all time, and in my honest opinion its best days are ahead of it,” Hougan concluded.

In a research report earlier this month, K33 Research predicted that the Ethereum ETFs would haul $4 billion of inflows within their first five months on the market. Back in March, Standard Chartered predicted that the ETFs would gather $45 billion in capital inflows within their first 12 months.

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Tether Unveils Satoshi Nakamoto Statue at Plan ₿ Forum in Swiss City Lugano

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The world’s largest stablecoin issuer, Tether, has joined hands with authorities in the Swiss City of Lugano to unveil a new statue of the pseudonymous Bitcoin creator Satoshi Nakamoto at the third annual forum of the Plan ₿ initiative.

According to a press release by Tether, the Satoshi Nakamoto statue embodies the Bitcoin creator’s mystery and innovation, honoring their vision and legacy.

Tether Unveils Satoshi Nakamoto Statue in Lugano

The statue was designed by the artist Valentina Picozzi in a way that plays with an observer’s perspective. It gradually disappears as an observer changes their position to the front or back, and it fully depicts an image of a man focused on his laptop if observed from the sides. The image symbolizes Nakamoto’s disappearance from the public eye after creating a path for the decentralized financial system.

“This artwork serves as a reminder of the enduring influence of Satoshi’s vision, inspiring us to continue pushing the boundaries of innovation and financial freedom. It’s an honor to unveil this tribute to a visionary who reshaped the world of finance and empowered millions globally,” said Tether CEO Paolo Ardoino.

Tether asserted that the statue serves as a reminder that the principles of decentralization and financial sovereignty continue to thrive while Nakamoto’s identity remains hidden. It sits in front of Lugano’s Villa Ciani.

Embracing Crypto Payments

Since Lugano launched the Plan ₿ initiative in collaboration with Tether two years ago, the city has made giant strides in adopting Bitcoin. The initiative enabled its residents to settle public service fees and taxes in bitcoin (BTC), Tether (USDT), and its own Lugano’s Swiss-franc pegged stablecoin (LVGA), recognizing the assets as legal tender.

The city hosts a Plan ₿ forum each year, bringing together blockchain industry leaders, government officials, and Bitcoin enthusiasts to discuss the future of cryptocurrencies and decentralized finance.

Michele Foletti, Mayor of Lugano, said: “Lugano is rapidly becoming a leading hub for digital innovation, and this statue honors Satoshi Nakamoto but also embodies the forward-thinking spirit that drives our city. We are proud to host the Plan ₿ Forum and to support the growth of blockchain technology and digital assets, and we are thrilled to now be home to this statue honoring the creator of Bitcoin.”

In December 2023, Lugano fully embraced crypto payments by incorporating a technology that allows residents to handle their expenses by scanning the invoice QR code via their preferred mobile wallets.

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No More Flippening: Bitcoin Is Now Worth $1 Trillion More Than Ethereum

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Bitcoin has assumed its biggest price lead in recent history over the altcoin ecosystem, leaving Ethereum – its perennial number 2 – in the dust.

The market capitalization of the OG crypto is now over $1 trillion greater than its runner-up, which has hit its lowest price point against its senior since early 2021.

Bitcoin’s Trillion Dollar Lead

According to CoinGecko, Bitcoin traded for $68,180 on Thursday, with a market cap of $1.34 trillion. Ethereum, by contrast, traded at $2530, with a market cap of $305 billion.

That leaves the ETH/BTC ratio at just 0.037, a low last seen in April 2021 following Ethereum’s meteoric rise over the previous 12 months. During the previous bull market, Ethereum followed the same general price behavior of the other major altcoins: when Bitcoin pumped, Ethereum pumped higher.

That’s not the case this time around. Since Ethereum’s highly anticipated Merge upgrade in September 2022, the top smart contract platform has lost over 50% of its value against BTC – despite the entire crypto market rallying in dollar terms since that time.

Over the last two years, several of crypto’s most bullish catalysts have been Bitcoin-centric. In March 2023, Bitcoin’s reputation as “digital gold” encouraged investors to come flooding into it as several U.S. banks collapsed. Later on, Bitcoin rallied for several months on excitement for Bitcoin spot ETF approvals, and again in 2024 following the ETF’s monumental success.

During this time, Bitcoin dominance has reclaimed multi-year highs, with the asset now worth 59% of the entire crypto market, according to TradingView.

Ethereum’s Lackluster Performance

Unlike Bitcoin ETFs, which have absorbed over $20 billion in net flows since launch, the Ethereum spot ETFs that went live in July have still seen net negative flows since that time, due to losses from the Grayscale Ethereum Trust (ETHE).

According to CryptoQuant, declines in the Coinbase Premium Index, suggest that institutional investors could be reducing their exposure to ETH.

Ethereum bulls online remain defiant, in the face of underperformance, however. Ethereum educator Anthony Sassal argued Wednesday that Ethereum’s L2s are dismantling any existing FUD around Ethereum being a slow and expensive network, and the network’s current bears are mere “bandwagoners.”

“The only thing ETH lacks right now is confidence – but that can change overnight,” added Bankless podcast host Ryan Sean Adams on Wednesday.

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Market Watch: Solana and Tron Defy Weekly Market Sentiment, Bitcoin Shaky at $67K

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The past seven days didn’t go well for bitcoin, which is on course to end the week with minor losses of nearly 2%.

The altcoins were a lot more volatile, but the majority are deep in the red now. Solana and Tron are among the few exceptions from the larger caps.

BTC Uncertain at $67K

The business week started quite well for the primary cryptocurrency as it jumped on Monday morning to $69,500 to market its highest price tag since late July. However, the landscape changed at that point as it was mostly downhill.

BTC dumped hard by the end of the day and kept losing value until the culmination on Wednesday, when it dropped to $65,000. It bounced off on Thursday, but some FUD about Tether pushed it south once again, this time to $65,500 (on Bitstamp).

The bulls managed to intervene at this point, and propelled a price rally that drove the cryptocurrency to around $67,000 yesterday. It has recovered a bit more traction in the past 24 hours, and now sits inches above $67,000.

Consequently, bitcoin is down by 1.6% in the past week despite the massive ETF inflows, which has harmed its market cap. The metric is now down to $1.325 trillion. However, its dominance over the alts shot up to a new high since 2021 of 55.6% on CoinGecko.

Bitcoin/Price/Chart 27.10.2024. Source: TradingView
Bitcoin/Price/Chart 27.10.2024. Source: TradingView

SOL, TRX Gain Weekly

As most alts sit quietly on a daily scale, we will focus on their weekly performances. It was another volatile week in the market, but most larger-cap alts are about to end it in the red.

Ethereum has lost 6% of its value within this timeframe and now struggles below $2,500. Toncoin (-6%), Avalanche (-8%), and Shiba Inu (-8.5%) are deep in the red as well.

The situation with Polkadot, NEAR, SUI, LTC, APT, FET, PEPE, IMX, TAO, and STX is even more painful, with losses of up to 15%.

The two larger-cap alts that have clearly defied this trend are Solana and Tron. SOL has gained 8.5% weekly and sits above $170, while TRX is north of $0.166 after a 6% surge.

The total crypto market cap, though, has seen over $60 billion gone since last Sunday and is below $2.390 trillion on CG.

Cryptocurrency Market Overview. Source: QuantifyCrypto
Cryptocurrency Market Overview. Source: QuantifyCrypto
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Cryptocurrency charts by TradingView.

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