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Ethereum ETFs To Haul $15 Billion Within 18 Months, Bitwise Predicts

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Ethereum spot ETFs will accumulate over $15 billion in net inflows within their first 18 months of hitting the U.S. market, predicted crypto asset manager Bitwise on Wednesday.

The firm’s year-and-a-half-long forecast would roughly match the net haul from Bitcoin ETFs ($14.4 billion) since their launch five months ago – from which excitement has helped drive BTC to new all-time highs.

Calculating Ethereum’s ETF Flows

Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan based his estimate on Bitcoin’s ETF figures and compared Ethereum to the overall size of Bitcoin’s market.

At present, Bitcoin’s market cap is $1.26 trillion, compared to Ethereum’s $432 billion market cap – implying a 3:1 asset ratio. Of said Bitcoin, $56 billion is locked within U.S. Bitcoin ETFs, which Hougan expects will rise to $100 billion by the end of 2025.

“By this logic, spot Ethereum ETPs will need $35 billion in AUM to reach parity,” he argued.

This figure doesn’t imply $35 billion of inflows, however. Firstly, Grayscale’s Ethereum Trust (ETHE) will immediately convert into an ETF at launch day with $10 billion from its outset, much like the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) converted holding $30 billion in assets. Factoring this in, Hougan reduces his estimate for ETF flows to $25 billion.

Still, the proportional differences between Bitcoin and Ethereum ETP sizes in other jurisdictions are almost identical. In Europe, Bitcoin ETPs hold €4.6 billion to Ethereum’s €1.3 billion. In Canada, Bitcoin ETPs control CAD 4.9 billion, while Ethereum-based funds own CAD $1.4 billion.

‘The fact that the split is roughly in line with the relative market capitalization of the two assets adds to my confidence that this kind of break-down reflects “normal” demand,” Hougan wrote.

Assuming a conservative ratio 78% BTC, 22% ETH as seen in in Europe, this puts Hougan’s estimate down to $18 billion for Ethereum ETF inflows.

Correcting For Cash And Carry

The estimate must also correct for the Bitcoin ETF market’s “carry trade,” Hougan said.

Analysts in recent months have highlighted that many institutions buying the Bitcoin ETFs are simply doing a “cash and carry trade” to earn risk-free yield, by longing the spot market while shorting the futures market. Since Bitcoin futures are often directionally long-biased, yields are usually quite high for this trade.

However, Hougan said the Ethereum basis trade is “not reliably profitable” enough for non-staked assets, meaning Ethereum ETFs won’t garner demand for this reason. “Removing carry-trade assets from our model cuts our flow estimate from $18 billion to $15 billion” he said.

With $15 billion of inflows, Hougan said the Ethereum ETF would be a historic success. Only four ETFs launched since January 2020 have gathered inflows at that level.

“ETH is one of the best-performing assets of all time, and in my honest opinion its best days are ahead of it,” Hougan concluded.

In a research report earlier this month, K33 Research predicted that the Ethereum ETFs would haul $4 billion of inflows within their first five months on the market. Back in March, Standard Chartered predicted that the ETFs would gather $45 billion in capital inflows within their first 12 months.

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Cryptocurrency

Mass Liquidation: 250,000 Traders Hit as Bitcoin Falls Below $100K

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Bitcoin’s weekend took a wrong turn in the past 12 hours or so as the asset plunged below $100,000 for the first time since the Monday crash.

As expected, the altcoins have turned red as well, with substantial losses from the likes of LINK, SOL, AVAX, DOGE, and others.

BTCUSD. Source: TradingView
BTCUSD. Source: TradingView

Recall that the primary cryptocurrency had a strong end for the business week and, subsequently, the month, as its price stood above $105,000 and even challenged $106,000 on a couple of occasions.

However, the bears stepped up and didn’t allow a surge toward a new all-time high. Just the opposite, BTC slumped on Friday evening and Saturday morning to $102,000.

It maintained that level for most of Saturday but started to lose traction again in the past several hours. As a result, it dropped to $99,000, which became its lowest levels since the Monday correction that pushed it below $98,000.

As of now, the cryptocurrency stands about a grand higher and is striving to return within six-digit territory.

However, the altcoins have suffered a lot more, with SOL, DOGE, LINK, AVAX, LTC, and HYPE dumping by almost double-digits. Even more painful declines come from the likes of VIRTUAL (-19%), TAO (-15%), RAY (-13%), LDO (-13%), GALA (-13%), and TRUMP (-13%).

This enhanced volatility has led to more than $500 million in liquidations over the past day, and the number is north of $400 million within the last 12 hours alone. Nearly 250,000 traders have been wrecked on a 24-hour scale. The single-largest liquidation order took place on Binance. It was worth close to $12 million.

Cryptocurrency Market Overview. Source: QuantifyCrypto
Cryptocurrency Market Overview. Source: QuantifyCrypto
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T3 FCU Freezes $26.4M in Spain as Justin Sun Warns of Blockchain Abuse

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Spanish law enforcement, in partnership with blockchain firms Tron, Tether, and TRM Labs, has frozen $26.4 million in cryptocurrency linked to a money laundering network operating across Europe.

The operation was carried out by the T3 Financial Crime Unit, an initiative formed in August 2024 by the three companies to combat illicit financial activities.

The T3 FCU’s Operation

Justin Sun admitted in an X post that the operation highlights that “Criminals are drawn to the same features that make blockchain revolutionary — speed, efficiency, and borderless transactions.”

However, he emphasized that by freezing over $26 million through coordinated efforts with law enforcement, Tron’s transparency ultimately makes money laundering more difficult, not easier.

According to a press release, the probe into the money laundering operation relied on police surveillance to uncover the criminal organization. Authorities also used various investigative techniques and Know Your Customer (KYC) records from virtual asset service providers to successfully link several crypto wallets to illegal activities.

“This organization moved millions across borders, using both cash and crypto to help criminal groups launder their profits,” a spokesperson for Spain’s Guardia Civil stated.

This latest action is the largest asset freeze conducted by T3 FCU so far, adding to the $100 million in frozen funds since its creation. The unit, established in August 2024, collaborates with global law enforcement agencies to disrupt criminal activities that rely on blockchain transactions.

Tron Reduced Illicit Transactions by $6B

On the other hand, security measures on the Tron network have reportedly reduced illicit transaction volumes on the blockchain by $6 billion. Analysis from TRM Labs shows that 49% of prohibited activity on the blockchain is linked to sanctioned entities, while 32% involves blacklisted funds.

Despite these reductions, the network remains the most used for illegal transactions, accounting for 58% of criminal activity in the sector. Tether’s USDT stablecoin remains the preferred asset for unlawful financial movements.

Tether CEO Paolo Ardoino stated that the operation highlighted blockchain’s role in combating illicit activities. He reaffirmed the commitment to protecting the financial system by working with global law enforcement to dismantle criminal networks.

 “Let this serve as a clear warning—criminals who attempt to misuse Tether will get caught,” he said.

Ardoino added that the stablecoin issuer has cooperated with more than 220 law enforcement agencies in 51 countries, freezing over 2,400 addresses holding a total of $2.2 billion.

In November 2023, the company froze $225 million worth of USDT linked to a global romance scam known as “pig butchering.” The following month, it also locked 161 Ethereum wallets, 11 of which contained over $3.5 million in USDT.

 

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Why Did Ripple’s (XRP) Price Tumble by 8% Daily?

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TL:DR;

  • The entire crypto market turned red on Sunday morning, but some altcoins were hit harder than others.
  • XRP’s price decline came just hours after a warning by a popular analyst that whales have started to sell off their holdings.
XRPUSD. Source: TradingView
XRPUSD. Source: TradingView

The third-largest cryptocurrency failed to go into uncharted territory a few weeks back, and it was stopped 1% away from its 2018 all-time high of $3.4 (CoinGecko data). Since then, the asset has failed to resume its rally and actually slipped to $2.8 during the Monday correction.

Nevertheless, it turned the tables during the business week by reclaiming the coveted $3 line. Moreover, it jumped to a weekly high of $3.15 on Friday, but its progress was halted at that point.

It started to lose value gradually over the weekend but slumped hard in the past 12 hours or so alongside bitcoin and the rest of the alts. Its price fell to a 6-day low of $2.82, thus dropping by more than 8% on a daily scale from top to bottom.

Despite recovering some ground to almost $2.9 now, XRP is still over 5% down on the day. This correction for the cross-border token comes not only with the rest of the market but also following a strategy reversal by whales.

These large market participants were among the biggest propellers of XRP’s surge since the elections by accumulating billions of dollars worth of the asset within months. Now, though, Ali Martinez showed that they have changed their tune and actually offloaded $70 million worth of XRP within a few days.

Whales are particularly important to the overall market movements as they have the ability to move it with their large purchases or sell-offs.

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