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Ethereum Killers Are Rallying: Is Ether (ETH) $4K Still in the Cards?

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Several base-layer blockchain cryptocurrencies that compete with Ethereum—because they are optimized for smart contracts and open-source currency issuance—rallied further up their price charts than ETH during the US election rally. Even Bitcoin gains beat Ether’s on this turn of the markets.

For the 30 days ending Friday, Nov. 22, Bitcoin’s price gained 47%. Meanwhile, Sui Coin (SUI) jumped by 74%, Solana by 56%, and Polkdadot (DOT) rose by 44%, according to data compiled by TradingView. Ether came up short of these DeFi competitors with a 25% increase for the period.

Even though the price of Ether on crypto exchanges marked $3,450 on Saturday, some investors are nervous about its prospects of reaching the $4,000 level by the peak of this crypto macrocycle.

In addition to concerns over the Ethereum platform’s overgrown, mutable code base and byzantine architecture, some analysts have expressed bearish worries about the Ether economy’s fundamentals.

Amberdata’s Director of Derivatives Greg Magadini, for example, said in a note to clients that “ETH faces serious headwinds as the value proposition of ‘sound money’ … has flipped to inflation supply as nearly all DeFi transactions are being executed on L2s … I believe that’s drastically dragging prices down.”

While ETH became a deflationary currency on Sept, 15, 2022, deflation has slowed in 2024 with the proliferation of currency onto Ethereum Layer-2 services. Though it hasn’t really slowed by much on the multi-year time scale.

1. Bullish: ETH/BTC Ratio Turns Again

Here’s how ETH has stacked up against BTC so far in 2024.

Legendary commodities and forex trader Peter Brandt pointed out to followers on Wednesday that the price ratio between BTC and ETH is at a cyclical inflection point, where it has formed a bottom in past cycles. That means Ether prices may soon rise, even as against BTC.

“A letter from the grave?” Brandt wrote in a note on X. The veteran commodities trader posted an Ethereum price-to-Bitcoin ratio graph from TradingView that shows how this metric melted up the chart last time it was this low at this time in BTC’s 4-year supply cycle.

Those are bullish technicals for Ethereum as cryptocurrency markets round the calendar into 2025.

2. Ethereum Price Prediction: $6,000 in 2025

Crypto chart analyst Ali Martinez predicts that Ether will outrun Bitcoin up the chart by the end of this macro market cycle. He marks $6,000 as a peak price in his most bullish scenario for Ether in the months ahead. Martinez expects at least $4,000 for Ethereum in this cycle.

“Every market cycle has experienced a phase where #Ethereum outperforms Bitcoin,” began Martinez in a note to followers on X Tuesday. “That hasn’t happened yet in the current cycle, but it is certainly on the horizon. As ETH lags behind, there is an opportunity here to buy before it outperforms.”

“Savvy investors are aware of this, and there has been a significant shift in spot Ethereum ETFs,” Martinez wrote, displaying a chart of Ethereum spot ETF inflows from August through Nov. 18. “They went from distribution to accumulation, having amazed over $147 million in ETH.”

In another chart, Martinez exhibited a long-term ascending parallel channel starting in July 2022, which, if continued, could potentially see an Ethereum price above $5,000 by April 2025.

In addition to increasing ETF volume, open interest in Ethereum futures on the Chicago Board Options Exchange also shifted over the same time period.

CBOE Ether futures volume and open interest rose from 3,613 and 6,121, respectively, on Oct. 11 to 16,614 and 13,043 on Nov. 21, according to data from CME Group.

3. DApp Volumes Up 38% in a Month

Another fundamental analysis of Ethereum’s price, in addition to its inflation rate against the US dollar, is monthly active usage of Web3 or decentralized apps secured by its blockchain network.

Dapp volumes for Ethereum are on the upswing along with ETH/BTC reaching a historical inflection point and ETF investor sentiment turning bullish— and over the same calendar span as increasing Ether futures volume and ETF inflows, according to data from DApp Radar.

Ethereum’s DApp volume for the 30-day period ending Nov. 20 was far and away first-in-class among DeFi coins. With $150 billion in volume on its decentralized application layer, Ethereum well outpaced Arbitrum (ARB) in second with $32 billion and Binance Coin (BNB) in third with ($26 billion).

4. ETH Vs. SOL Do-Si-Do Nov. ‘24

We’ll add up the percentage of each base layer coin’s gains over a relevant period in November and their top three meme tokens, and/or L2 utilities, lemme know if you have preference.

Over the multi-year timeframe, Solana went on a stout bull run while Ethereum was in hibernation. That could mean there’s more upside left in Ethereum’s market on the next turn of the cycle.

The relative performance of base-layer ETH tokens, the three most popular Ethereum meme coins, against SOL tokens and the three most popular Solana memes during the US election rally is another signal portent of a paradigm shift in the markets for these competing altcoins.

SOL outperformed ETH during the 30 days ending Nov. 22. Ethereum flowed up the chart 25%, while Solana stacked 53% gains. Still, Ethereum’s top three meme coins outpaced Solana memes overall during the same period.

The cumulative 30-day ROI for Ethereum plus its top three memes was 220%, while the ROI for Solana plus its top three memes was 200%.

That higher percentage gain is nice for the individual altcoin trader holding the Ethereum coins in their bag during this time, but how hard was it for the market to move these economies by those percentages? It depends on several factors, but the market cap is a central indicator of their confluence.

The collective market caps of these Ethereum and Solana economies, were on Nov. 22: $423 billion and $129 billion, respectively. So the extra 21% worth of cumulative ROI on Ethereum coins is more impressive than that of Solana because it’s harder to move the ETH market cap.

Plus, there are those ETH fees, as SOL boosters would be apt to point out.

5. Institutional Backing for Ethereum

In addition to the upward shift in monthly Ethereum ETF net inflows and Ether futures volume in November, institutional investors show a high level of conviction for ETH in the percentage of their held coins that remain stakes to secure the network and earn yield in addition to gains in market prices on cryptocurrency exchanges.

Institutional investors are really into investing in Ethereum—not merely holding Ether but locking it into staking contracts to secure the platform’s economy for yield. That shows a high level of conviction in the product and in its long-term growth prospects.

Earlier in October, Carlos Mercado, a data scientist for blockchain strategy firm Flipside Crypto, pointed out that the number of Ethereum stakers had increased by over 30% over the trailing 12-month period. That figure notched the one million mark for the first time in June.

A recent survey of Ethereum users by Blockworks Research, a blockchain intelligence firm based in New York City, published in mid-Oct. 30, found that 69.2% of survey respondents stake Ethereum, but 78.8% of investment firms or asset managers own ETH stake.

Furthermore, they’re taking extra steps to keep their Ether more liquid as they stake it, with over 52% reporting that they use a liquid staking token. That shows a level of sophistication for these traditional finance participants in the cryptographic smart contract economy.

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Cryptocurrency

SEC Reviews Grayscale’s Solana ETF Filing, Indicating Possible Shift in Crypto Regulation

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The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has acknowledged Grayscale’s filing for a Solana-based exchange-traded fund (ETF).

It is the first time the agency has engaged with an ETF proposal tracking a cryptocurrency that was once considered a security.

‘A Positive Sign’

The acknowledgment, relayed on February 6, caught many by surprise, given that just six weeks ago, the regulator, then led by former Chair Gary Gensler, asked the Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE) to withdraw similar Solana ETF filings.

Breaking the news on X, ETF expert James Seyffart pointed out that the regulator’s action was notable because it had previously refused to engage with other companies that had attempted to file SOL-based exchange-traded products. Further, he suggested it could be a “positive sign” for crypto firms, including exchanges, that the SEC has sued over claims that Solana is a security.

Eric Balchunas, Bloomberg’s senior ETF analyst, shared similar sentiments, calling it a “notable development” and adding:

“We are now in new territory, albeit just a baby step, but seemingly the direct result of leadership change.”

Earlier in the year, Seyffart had said that proposals for ETFs tracking the world’s fifth-largest cryptocurrency by market cap may face delays until 2026 because of ongoing lawsuits involving the classification of SOL as a security. The SEC had taken separate legal action against Binance and Coinbase, accusing the exchanges of offering unregistered securities for listing tokens such as Solana and Cardano.

Grayscale, the biggest digital asset manager in the world, first applied to convert its Grayscale Solana Trust into an ETF towards the end of last year. It launched the product slightly more than three years ago, and as of the start of this month, it had over 7 million shares outstanding.

Accepting its filing is just the first step in a lengthy process. The regulator now has a 240-day window to approve or deny the proposal.

CBOE Files XRP ETF Requests

Elsewhere, the CBOE has filed 19b-4 forms on behalf of several crypto investment firms, including Bitwise, Canary Funds, WisdomTree, and 21Shares, for XRP ETFs. The documents represent the next stage in the approval process, following the submission of S-1 registration statements.

While their validation is far from guaranteed, the SEC’s recent engagement with Litecoin ETF proposals suggests there could be a more favorable environment for crypto-based financial products going forward.

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Binance Test Token Pumps to $37M After Accidental Name Reveal

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A test meme coin (TST) created for a tutorial on the Four.Meme platform experienced an unexpected surge in value following a social media post by former Binance CEO Changpeng Zhao, popularly known as CZ.

The token, originally intended as a demonstration asset on the BNB Chain, saw its market cap skyrocket as traders and influencers turned it into a fully functional cryptocurrency.

Accidental Launch

According to an X post from Zhao, the meme coin’s name was briefly visible in a single frame of the training video. After realizing it had been exposed, the team removed the video from the web. However, by then, it had already been spread across the internet.

The video and the token soon caught the eye of several Chinese crypto influencers, with their endorsements creating further interest and attracting more traders. What had started as a simple test asset quickly transformed into a fully tradable coin.

Zhao has since clarified that neither he nor Binance endorsed the coin, stating:

“This is NOT an official token by the BNB Chain team, or anyone. It is a test token used just for that video tutorial. Nothing more.”

He added that a team member had also deleted the private key for the creator address used in the tutorial, which contained 0.13% of the token supply. He further stated that no one on the training team or at Binance held any of the cryptocurrency.

Despite this, the former executive suggested restoring the instruction video while also encouraging the community by commenting, “Happy trading.”

TST’s Meteoric Rise

According to DEX Screener data, TST, which initially held a valuation of just under $500,000, saw its fully diluted value surge beyond $25 million. Eager traders drove its market cap past $37 million, with its liquidity reaching $4.5 million.

As the coin continued gaining traction, it was listed on PancakeSwap. Shortly after, it was also added to the MEXC exchange, where its price fluctuated between $0.02 and $0.04. Early investors also made substantial profits, with one trader reportedly earning $303,600 from sales and another securing $258,200.

The rapid rise of the meme coin shows the intense demand for this asset class. However, despite their popularity, they have faced growing scrutiny in recent weeks. Pump.fun is currently the subject of a proposed class-action lawsuit from investors alleging it marketed and sold unregistered securities.

Additionally, the launch of a Trump-themed meme coin in January also caused controversy within the industry. Mark Cuban criticized the initiative as a setback for crypto’s legitimacy, arguing that it weakens ownership and fuels speculation.

Senator Elizabeth Warren also called for an investigation into the Trump token, citing concerns over ethics, foreign influence, and regulatory oversight.

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Bitcoin Eyes $100K After Market Crash, Trump Approves US Sovereign Wealth Fund: Weekly Crypto Recap

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Somewhat unexpectedly, all the drama started during the previous weekend, which is typically a calmer period for the financial markets. Well, except crypto, because it’s open 24/7.

President Trump’s implementation of new taxes on Canada, China, and Mexico brought mass panic across the charts. On Saturday evening and Sunday, BTC tumbled from $102,000 to under $100,000 and down to $97,000. It managed to catch its breath on Sunday afternoon, but the bears were back in control of the market on Monday morning.

In a matter of hours, BTC slumped hard and fell below $92,000 for the first time in about two weeks. Consequently, bitcoin had lost ten grand within 24 hours and roughly $15,000 since last Friday when it stood above $106,000.

After that multi-week low, though, the cryptocurrency bounced off and jumped above $100,000 and back to $102,000, thus completing another ten-grand move within hours. Nevertheless, it failed to sustain within six-digit territory and headed south in the following days. It flirted with the $96,000 support line on several occasions but so far has managed to maintain above it.

Hours ago, BTC pumped by a few grand and touched $100,000 for the first time since Monday, following the US jobs data. However, it couldn’t keep the momentum going and is now back below it.

The weekly charts are quite painful for most altcoins. Ethereum is down by 17% and trades well below $2,800. XRP has plunged by 18% to under $2.5, while DOGE, ADA, LINK, AVAX, and SUI have plummeted by over 20%.

In fact, OM is the only larger-cap altcoin in the green. An 18% surge since last Friday has pushed its price to well above $6.

Market Data

Crypto Weekly. Source: QuantifyCrypto

Market Cap: $3.359T | 24H Vol: $154B | BTC Dominance: 58.5%

BTC: $98,750 (-5%) | ETH: $2,750 (-17.25% ) | XRP: $2.49 (-18.3%)

This Week’s Crypto Headlines You Can’t Miss

Bitcoin Rallies Toward $100K as Mexico and US Suspend Tariffs. As explained above, the highly volatile trading week due to Trump’s tariffs against a few countries led to a substantial crash in the market. However, the suspension agreement between the US and Mexico sent BTC flying on Monday evening, with a brief surge toward $100,000.

Trump Approves US Sovereign Wealth Fund, Will it Buy Bitcoin? The new US President dominates the news on all fronts and his decision to approve a US sovereign wealth fund earlier this week broke Crypto Twitter as many anticipated that it will finally see the inclusion of BTC and perhaps other digital assets. However, that doesn’t seem to be the case, at least for now.

MicroStrategy Drops ‘Micro’ From Name After Record BTC Buying Quarter. The biggest corporate holder of bitcoin rebranded its name this week by dropping ‘Micro.’ The company, now called simply ‘Strategy,’ has introduced BTC into its logo and reaffirmed its leadership position in the bitcoin landscape by registering its best quarter in terms of accumulation.

Arthur Hayes Slams US Bitcoin Reserve Plans and Crypto Regulation Efforts. The BitMEX co-founder is among the critics of the supposed US bitcoin reserve as he believes that such a move would be mostly political and can be a double-edged sword. He noted that ‘what can be bought can be sold,’ and a potential accumulation of BTC by the US government could be devastating if there’s a change in the nation’s political scene in the next few years.

Crypto Analyst Says Altcoins May Take 2 Months to Recover, Here’s Why. The aforementioned crash in the crypto markets hit the altcoins the hardest, with many charting double-digit losses daily and on a weekly scale. A popular analyst believes many of them would need at least a month or two to recover as their corrections were deeper.

BlackRock Expands Crypto Offerings With Bitcoin ETP in Europe: Report. The asset manager behind the world’s largest Bitcoin ETF plans to expand its portfolio of BTC-related products. BlackRock aims to launch a BTC-linked exchange-traded product in Europe, which would become its first entry into the European crypto scene.

Charts

This week, we have a chart analysis of Ethereum, Ripple, Cardano, Binance Coin, and Solana – click here for the complete price analysis.

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Disclaimer: Information found on CryptoPotato is those of writers quoted. It does not represent the opinions of CryptoPotato on whether to buy, sell, or hold any investments. You are advised to conduct your own research before making any investment decisions. Use provided information at your own risk. See Disclaimer for more information.

Cryptocurrency charts by TradingView.

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