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Ethereum Price Analysis: Critical Technical Warning Flashes for ETH as $2.1K Seems Imminent

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Ethereum has been notably bearish, marked by a sharp decline following a pullback to the lower boundary of a broken wedge, coupled with the formation of a death cross.

Despite this, the price is nearing a crucial support level that could lead to a short-term sideways consolidation.

By Shayan

The Daily Chart

Ethereum has been in a strong downtrend, instilling fear and uncertainty among market participants. Low inflows into spot ETH ETFs have further underscored this sentiment, signaling reduced investor interest and the appearance of the death cross, where the 100-day moving average crosses below the 200-day moving average.

Following a rejection at the lower boundary of the multi-month wedge and the 0.5-0.618 Fibonacci levels, Ethereum has continued its decline, confirming the strength of sellers in the market.

However, the price is approaching a critical support zone, defined by the static $2.1K level and the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement level at $2,067. This area is expected to have a substantial demand, which could lead to a short-term pause in the downtrend, with potential sideways consolidation before Ethereum’s next move is determined.

eth_price_chart_0709241
Source: TradingView

The 4-Hour Chart

On the 4-hour chart, ETH was firmly rejected from the resistance zone between the 0.5 ($2.6K) and 0.618 ($2.7K) Fibonacci levels, resulting in continued bearish momentum toward the $2.1K support. This level has held previously, particularly in early August, suggesting it might attract buyers looking to accumulate at these price points.

If demand resurfaces at the $2.1K mark, Ethereum may experience a temporary consolidation phase, pausing the downward pressure. However, if this crucial support is breached, it could trigger a long-liquidation event, potentially driving the price down toward the $1.8K region.

The coming days will be crucial in determining whether Ethereum can hold this support or if a deeper correction is on the horizon.

eth_price_chart_0609242
Source: TradingView

By Shayan

Ethereum’s value is fundamentally tied to its decentralized network and the active engagement of its users. One key metric to gauge this engagement is the number of unique active addresses on the network, which can serve as a valuable proxy for Ethereum’s overall market demand and valuation.

The chart showcases the 14-day moving average of Ethereum Active Addresses, which represents the total number of distinct active addresses, including both senders and receivers of ETH transactions. Since late March 2024, this metric has rapidly declined, highlighting a drop in user activity and transaction volumes.

This downward trend reflects a bearish market sentiment, with reduced demand and lower investor participation. For Ethereum to recover and potentially embark on a long-term sustainable rally, this trend must reverse. A resurgence in the number of active addresses would indicate growing interest and accumulation of Ethereum, signaling more robust demand and the possibility of a bullish market reversal.

eth_active_addresses_chart_0709241
Source: TradingView
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Cryptocurrency charts by TradingView.

Cryptocurrency

BlackRock’s ETH ETF Could Soon Offer Staking—SEC Filing Moves Forward

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The US Securities and Exchange Commission has acknowledged BlackRock’s filing about allowing investors in its flagship Ethereum ETF to stake their assets.

Although this development doesn’t guarantee an official approval of the filing, it’s still a big step in the right direction.

The “acknowledged” part means that the securities watchdog has confirmed that it has received certain amendments made by the ETF issuer. Typically, the SEC also opens a public comment period, allowing stakeholders to weigh in on the matter.

BlackRock and Nasdaq submitted a 19b-4 rule change proposal that aims to allow investors using the iShares Ethereum Trust (ETHA) to stake ETH with staking rewards treated as income to the fund.

ETHA is by far the largest Ethereum ETF, and it became the third-fastest to reach a $10 billion AUM milestone within less than a year after its launch.

It continues to attract substantial net inflows. The last day in the red was on July 2, with $46.9 million leaving the fund. Since then, it has been on a massive roll, attracting nearly $4 billion in net inflows in less than a month.

The underlying asset’s price has benefited substantially from these enormous inflows, having surged by over 50% in the past month alone. Moreover, ETH is up by more than 150% since its bottom in early April and is close to knocking on the $4,000 door now.

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Ripple Price Reversal Incoming as Investors Pull XRP Off Exchanges?

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TL;DR

  • XRP whales move over 80M tokens off exchanges, signaling long-term holding behavior.
  • $845M in single-day losses follows co-founder’s $140M sell-off amid price pressure.
  • RSI cools from an overbought zone, indicating that XRP may be stabilizing after the recent price drop.

Exchange Supply Drops Sharply

Between July 23 and July 26, the amount of XRP held on centralized exchanges dropped from around 4.45 billion to just over 4.25 billion, based on Glassnode data. This change suggests large holders may be moving their funds into cold storage rather than keeping them liquid.

According to Captain Redbeard, the shift shows users are not preparing to sell. Instead, they appear to be withdrawing assets, possibly to hold through current market conditions.

XRP was priced at $3.15 at press time, down 3% in the past 24 hours and nearly 9% over the last week. The asset has slipped steadily since reaching a new all-time high at $3.65 on July 18. Despite this, wallet outflows have continued. The behavior suggests many holders are not rushing to exit positions.

Analyst Ali Martinez said that losing the $3.15 level could open the door to a test of $3. He added that such a move “could present a solid buy-the-dip opportunity.” That level now acts as the nearest key support zone.

Selling Spikes After Insider Move

On-chain data shows roughly $845 million in realized losses over the past day, one of the most significant single-day sell-offs this month. This followed reports that a Ripple co-founder sold $140 million worth of XRP. The move added pressure to an already declining market.

glassnode-studio_xrp-net-realized-profit-loss
Source: Glassnode

While some investors are taking profits, trading volume remains strong at $6.2 billion. XRP continues to trade well below its all-time high, and recent activity shows a cautious mood.

Momentum Builds Underneath

The BBTrend value now sits at 27.66, pointing to a shift in short-term momentum. The recent expansion in green bars indicates renewed buying interest.

XRP price chart
Source: TradingView

Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) has declined to 59 against the recent peak of 72. This shift indicates that the asset is no longer overbought, and it could now stabilize.

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Dormant XRP Wallets Spring to Life – What Does This Mean for Ripple’s Price?

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After hitting an all-time high of $3.65 in mid-July, XRP has entered a phase of consolidation. The token is gradually retracing to hover around the $3.15 mark. Despite multiple attempts to break higher, XRP has faced resistance near $3.3.

This price action reflects a cooling-off period following the sharp rally from early July, when it surged from around $2.2. Interestingly, older XRP wallets are on the move again, which could impact the asset’s future price trajectory.

Old Coins Return to Circulation

XRP is still up by almost 46% over the past month while holding slightly shaky at the $3.15 support level. According to Santiment’s latest data, one important on-chain signal is the reactivation of dormant coins, which suggests renewed investor interest and participation from long-term holders.

The average age of XRP investments has dropped by 91 days and is now standing at 593 days. This means that a wave of older wallets is moving assets back into circulation. Historically, such behavior has often preceded or accompanied bullish price action, lending further weight to the current market momentum.

However, crypto analyst Ali Martinez warned that if XRP fails to hold the crucial $3.15 support level, the crypto asset could retrace to the $3 mark. While this potential dip may concern short-term traders, Martinez said it could offer a compelling buy-the-dip opportunity for investors anticipating a rebound, especially given XRP’s strong performance and recent on-chain activity.

While traders eye short-term price action, major players are taking a longer-term view – especially through large-scale XRP allocations.

XRP Gains Institutional Traction

In what appears to be a growing corporate confidence in XRP as a strategic asset, Hyperscale Data has officially launched its $10 million XRP treasury program. The company plans to provide weekly updates starting August 12, in a bid to boost transparency and investor trust.

With a possible 36-month lockup under consideration, Hyperscale’s move indicates a long-term commitment rather than short-term speculation. The latest development comes on the heels of Nature’s Miracle’s $20 million XRP plan.

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