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Fed’s Recession Fears Could Catapult Bitcoin Prices to $1M By 2030

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Powell warned Wednesday, Apr. 16 of a stagflationary situation ahead with “higher inflation and slower growth.” He said the scenario would be “challenging” for the central bank to make policy decisions.

The Fed chair said there would be tension between the central bank’s twin mandates from Congress: maximum productive employment with minimum consumer price inflation.

Meanwhile the New York Federal Reserve’s Treasury yield curve recession indicator gives a 56% chance of the US economy going into recession in July.

Economic Fears Could Catalyze Bitcoin’s Trajectory to $1 Million

In Q1, BlackRock’s crypto chief Robbie Mitchnick said while speaking with Yahoo Finance, “A recession would be a big catalyst for Bitcoin.”

“It’s long liquidity, meaning it benefits from increased fiscal spending, deficit accumulation, and lower interest rates—all typical features of a recessionary environment,” Mitchnick said.

The inflationary recession the US central bank fears may be the catalyst that launches Bitcoin to the stratospheric $1 million forecast Block and CashApp founder Jack Dorsey made for by 2030.

Here are five ways markets expect that to happen:

1. There Are No Tariffs on Cryptocurrency

Unlike imported steel and manufactured items, there are no Trump Administration tariffs for Bitcoin or cryptocurrencies on the table. Bitcoin is an amorphous global Web3 layer network that exists in a borderless cyberspace.

Javier Molina, market analyst for the eToro trading brokerage platform, said in mid-April:

“Right now Tesla, Apple, and Google are showing more volatility than bitcoin, because that’s where the tariffs have a direct impact.”

US import tariffs slow the exchange of dollar exports in exchange for foreign materials and manufactured goods. As a result, countries that import fewer dollars may opt to import Bitcoin instead.

2. National and Corporate BTC Stockpiles Race

In fact, the US government’s own official stockpile plans have launched an international land grab for the scarce supply of remaining Bitcoin, capped at 21 million.

Fortune Magazine reported on Thursday that Binance is in talks with several world powers to help them implement sovereign Bitcoin funds.

Meanwhile, a Trump White House official even discussed an idea in April with Anthony Pompliano to use tariff revenue to buy Bitcoin for the US strategic national reserve. These shifts are tectonic in the scale of their implications for present market valuations.

Following in the wake of US leadership and Strategy’s successes, corporate balance sheets and whale-sized BTC addresses began accumulating Bitcoin like never before in Q1.

3. Fed Rate Cuts God Candle Bitcoin’s Price

Furthermore, if Trump’s trade war leads to a slowing economy and rising prices, keeping Powell occupied at the moment, it could be another tsunami for Bitcoin’s price, with entrenched support levels locked in at the historical factor of 10 times on a roughly 4-year market cycle.

The financial crisis-era Fed rate cuts to nearly 0% in 2009 saw Bitcoin’s price move from $0.003 in 2010 to $469 in December 2015, when the central bank began raising rates again.

The global asset price crash in 2020, followed by emergency rate cuts to 0% in May 2020, launched Bitcoin’s price again from $5,245 on Mar. 18, 2020, to $66,953 in Nov. 2021.

Then, after pulling back for three months, Bitcoin immediately continued revising ruthlessly downward following the Fed’s pivot to rate hikes in Mar. 2022. That took markets to below $16,000 before the year was over.

Later, as the Fed started trimming rates down again in September 2024, like clockwork, Bitcoin’s price rallied to historic record high levels.

A slowing economy would likely prompt the printing press to target lower interest rates that ease lending to get businesses moving again. This has historically had the effect of pushing prices up for consumers, stock traders, and Bitcoin buyers.

4. US Fiscal Deficits Are Rocket Fuel For BTC

The Congressional Budget Office expects the US yearly national deficit in tax revenue to cover spending to continue to grow from its current record proportions. The CBO also predicts the national debt will be 156% of GDP by 2055.

There is a direct correlation since 1980 between US recessions and federal deficit spending rising to and becoming entrenched at new record high levels, according to data published by the St. Louis Federal Reserve.

Washington deficit spending levels also historically trend with Bitcoin prices because the government hogs up credit markets, creating upward pressure on loan rates that brings on more of the Fed’s printing press to keep business flowing.

5. Easy Dollars Make Hard Bitcoin More Dear In Recessions

Bitcoin’s world-historically disruptive growth as an independent Internet currency seems to exemplify the economic principle expressed by Gresham’s Law:

“Bad money drives out good from circulation.”

Thomas Gresham, who founded the Royal Exchange of the City of London in the 16th Century, noticed a pattern in the circulation of metal coins off the mint.

During uncertain times, merchants would spend and deposit the coins that were easier to make, like copper and silver, but hoard the most difficult coins, like gold.

International currency economists found the same pattern in free-floating global currency exchanges in the 20th century monetary era as central banks adjusted supplies and loan rates.

While dollars are easy for the Fed to make as long as the economy has the capacity to grow production to cover its loans, BTC is very hard to make, but demand for it continues to grow.

Bitcoin’s price was up 37% on the 12-month window the week ending Friday, Apr. 18. Meanwhile, the high-growth, tech-focused Nasdaq Composite was up 4.39% on a one-year basis.

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Cryptocurrency

Metaplanet and K33 Deepen Bitcoin (BTC) Exposure With Strategic Initiatives

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In a strategic move to accelerate its Bitcoin acquisition goals, Japan-based Metaplanet issued $21 million in interest-free bonds to the Evo Fund on May 29, following a separate $50 million raise the previous day. These zero-coupon bonds, known as the 17th series, come with a $525,000 face value and are set to mature on November 28, 2025.

As they bear no interest, Metaplanet avoids additional financial costs tied to borrowing.

Metaplanet Adds to Bitcoin Warchest

According to the official document, the terms allow Evo Fund to initiate early redemptions with a five-day notice, either in full or in multiples of $525,000. Additionally, redemptions may be linked to future funding rounds with the same investor.

The bonds are unsecured, with no guarantees or administrators, which is in line with Japanese corporate law. Payment processing will take place at the company’s Tokyo office.

This fundraising effort contributes to Metaplanet’s larger goal of amassing 10,000 BTC by the end of 2025. Year-to-date, the company has raised $135.2 million, including previous rounds in February ($25.9 million), March ($13.3 million), and earlier in May ($25 million).

Currently holding approximately 7,800 BTC, worth around $840 million, Metaplanet ranks 11th among global corporate Bitcoin holders, with an average purchase price of $91,340 per BTC. In March, it used cash-secured put options to acquire 696 BTC, followed by an additional 145 BTC in April for $13.6 million.

Metaplanet isn’t the only company doubling down on Bitcoin. In Scandinavia, K33 is taking a similar approach.

K33 Joins Corporate Bitcoin Trend

K33, the Oslo-based cryptocurrency brokerage company, announced plans to begin holding Bitcoin on its balance sheet after raising 60 million SEK ($6.22 million). As per the announcement on May 28th, the funding was secured via interest-free convertible loans and a new round of share and warrant issuances.

The Norwegian firm confirmed that 100% of the funds will be used to buy Bitcoin, possibly acquiring up to 57 BTC at current prices. The firm secured 45 million SEK ($4.66 million) through loans maturing in June 2028, and 15 million SEK ($1.5 million) via equity and warrants. Investors converting their warrants before March 2026 will be granted additional free warrants, which would potentially allow K33 to raise a total of 75 million SEK ($7.77 million).

In its Q1 financial update, CEO Bull Jenssen said K33 is partnering with other Nordic Bitcoin treasury firms and intends to leverage its holdings to create Bitcoin-based services, including collateralized lending.

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Crypto Markets Shed $200B in 48 Hours as Bitcoin Dumps to 12-Day Low (Weekend Watch)

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Perhaps driven by the latest escalation of tensions between the US and China, bitcoin’s price has tumbled over the past 12 hours to a multi-week low of $103,000.

The altcoins have it even worse, with massive price drops from the likes of SUI, LINK, DOGE, SOL, ADA, and more. CRO has defied the market-wide trend with a double-digit price surge.

BTC Dumps to $103K

Ever since it skyrocketed to almost $112,000 last Thursday to chart a new all-time high, bitcoin’s price has been unable to recapture or even sustain its momentum. It started to fall on the next day when US President Trump recommended a new set of tariffs against the EU.

Although he delayed their implementation for over a month, BTC failed to bounce off decisively and was stopped at around $110,000 on a couple of occasions. The latest rejection, which came on Thursday at $109,000, was the worst one (for now) as it drove BTC down to $105,000.

It recovered some ground to $106,000 yesterday, but the bears reemerged and pushed the cryptocurrency south to a 12-day low of just over $103,000. This decline transpired after Trump said China “violated” the trade agreement between the two, while Beijing responded kindly.

Although BTC has regained some ground and now sits above $103,500, its market cap has slid to $2.06 trillion on CG, while its dominance over the alts has shot up to 61.3%.

BTCUSD. Source: TradingView
BTCUSD. Source: TradingView

Alts Bleed Out, Not CRO

The alternative coins have marked some big losses over the past day. Ethereum is close to breaking below $2,500 after a 4.5% drop. XRP has plunged beneath $2.15, while DOGE, SOL, ADA, SUI, LINK, and AVAX have plummeted by up to 9%.

The situation with the lower-cap alts is even more painful, as many, such as ENA, INJ, VIRTUAL, and PEPE, have charted double-digit price declines.

CRO is the only exception, having gained 17% in the past day and trading close to $0.11.

The total crypto market cap has seen roughly $200 billion gone in the past two days and is down to $3.360 trillion.

Cryptocurrency Market Overview. Source: QuantifyCrypto
Cryptocurrency Market Overview. Source: QuantifyCrypto
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Disclaimer: Information found on CryptoPotato is those of writers quoted. It does not represent the opinions of CryptoPotato on whether to buy, sell, or hold any investments. You are advised to conduct your own research before making any investment decisions. Use provided information at your own risk. See Disclaimer for more information.

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Ethereum Price Analysis: Is ETH Dumping to $2K Next as Momentum Fades?

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ETH continues to consolidate beneath a key resistance level around $2,800, struggling to break higher after a strong rally earlier in May.

While the bulls have held higher lows in the short term, repeated rejection from the same level raises questions about buyer conviction at these highs.

Technical Analysis

The Daily Chart

Ethereum is currently consolidating below the major resistance at $2,800, which aligns with the 200-day moving average. The uptrend that began near $1,500 has paused, and the RSI has slightly dropped below 70, reflecting weakening bullish momentum.

Despite this, the price remains above the 100-day MA and the previous breakout zone near $2,200, indicating structure remains bullish unless those levels are lost. A clean breakout above $2,800 would open the path toward the $3,400–$3,600 supply zone. On the other hand, failure to do so could trigger a retest of the $2,200 demand block.

The 4-Hour Chart

The 4H chart shows that the price has formed a clear ascending triangle between the $2,800 resistance and roughly $2,500 support. The structure resembles a potential distribution phase following two strong accumulation zones below $1,850 earlier this month. While ETH continues to set higher lows, the repeated rejection at the highs is starting to weigh on the short-term outlook.

The RSI is also hovering near 47, suggesting a neutral momentum shift. A break below $2,500 and the lower boundary of the pattern would signal bearish reversal toward $2,100, while a confirmed breakout above $2,800 would invalidate the distribution idea and favor upside expansion.

Sentiment Analysis

The Coinbase Premium Index is currently holding slightly above zero, indicating moderate spot demand from US-based investors. Historically, a rising premium has often preceded strong bullish trends driven by institutional or high-volume retail buyers on Coinbase. Although the current levels are not aggressively high, they reflect underlying strength in the spot market and a willingness to pay slightly more for ETH on U.S. exchanges.

If this premium begins expanding while ETH approaches resistance again, it could signal renewed confidence and front-running of a breakout. On the other hand, if the premium fades or turns negative, it may signal waning interest and a possible short-term top, which is the scenario that is seemingly occurring at the moment.

Therefore, if the demand from the US declines, it would be highly likely for ETH to go into a correction phase once more.

 

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Disclaimer: Information found on CryptoPotato is those of writers quoted. It does not represent the opinions of CryptoPotato on whether to buy, sell, or hold any investments. You are advised to conduct your own research before making any investment decisions. Use provided information at your own risk. See Disclaimer for more information.

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