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Here’s When the Current Bitcoin Bull Cycle Will End: CryptoQuant CEO

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Bitcoin’s price performances for the past ten years or so have been dominated by bear and bull cycles.

In general, the BTC halving is regarded as the catalyst for the start of the bull market, while the last two years ahead of each such event are dictated by the bears.

Current Cycle

However, this hasn’t been the case during the ongoing run, which started in the middle of 2023 and was fueled initially by hype surrounding the potential approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs in the States. Once those products became a reality in early 2024, the asset broke its 2021 all-time high and charted a new one of almost $74,000. This was the first time a new peak was registered ahead of a halving.

The reasoning behind this is that once those products saw the light of day, this meant that BTC is now a legitimate investment asset since the companies that launched them are some of the largest in the world, including BlackRock and Fidelity.

The inflows skyrocketed in the first few months, and even though the demand has somewhat flattened in the past several weeks, BTC’s price went on a massive run and still stands in a range between $60,000 and $70,000.

Additionally, the US Federal Reserve is rumored to start lowering the interest rates later this year, which is typically regarded as a bullish development for riskier assets like BTC and other cryptocurrencies.

Last but not least, the halving indeed took place a month ago. While most experts claim that the effects of each block reward slashing are diminishing in time, the fact of the matter is that the production of new BTC is declining and is now down to around 450 BTC per day. A lot less than the average accumulation rate by ETFs, whales, and retail investors.

When Will it End?

Ki Young Ju, the CEO of CryptoQuant, asserted that BTC is currently in the middle of its ongoing bull cycle. He outlined a chart showing that bitcoin’s actual market cap is “growing faster than its realized cap,” which is a variation of the market cap that values each UTXO at the price it was last moved.

Such a trend typically lasts two years and would mean that the ongoing bull run will end within the next 11 months or so.

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Something Funky Has Been Happening to the Bitcoin Markets Since 2021: Details

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The number of Bitcoin (BTC) deposit addresses on exchanges has dropped sharply. Such a pattern points to a deepening long-term conviction among investors.

Data reveals a dramatic reversal in behavior that began after the 2021 cycle peak. Between 2015 and 2021, the number of unique addresses depositing BTC to exchanges steadily increased, averaging 180,000 annually. However, since 2022, that trend has not only stalled, but it has declined consistently.

BTC Exchange Deposit Trend Reverses

According to CryptoQuant’s latest analysis, the 10-year average now stands at approximately 90,000, while the current 30-day moving average is just 48,000. On a daily basis, the number of depositing addresses has dropped to around 37,000, recording a multi-year low. Analysts say that this indicates a growing preference for holding Bitcoin rather than trading it.

The launch of spot Bitcoin ETFs has played a key role, which gave institutional and retail investors access to BTC’s price performance without needing to move or manage the asset directly. Additionally, lower retail trading activity in the current cycle has reduced active deposit behavior.

At the same time, an increasing number of investors, and even corporations, are adopting a savings-oriented approach, treating Bitcoin as a long-term reserve rather than a speculative instrument.

The report said,

“These shifts, which have emerged gradually over time, are precisely what drive Bitcoin’s evolving identity in financial markets. It may well be this transformation that ultimately solidifies BTC’s role as a store of value.”

This sentiment in investor behavior is echoed on a macro scale.

Bitcoin As Modern Reserve Asset

Bitcoin is increasingly seen as a strategic asset for nations seeking to strengthen economic resilience in the current global landscape, according to a recent report by CoinShares. The cryptocurrency’s potential to hedge inflation, diversify sovereign portfolios, and offer protection against geopolitical instability positions it as a modern complement to gold and foreign exchange reserves.

While the US decision in 2025 to add Bitcoin to its reserves is a crucial moment, CoinShares noted that the ongoing skepticism among economists who highlight its volatility and speculative nature.

Despite this, with rising global debt, inflation, and mounting geopolitical tensions, more governments are exploring alternatives. Brazil’s RESBit proposal and Russia’s reported interest in Bitcoin reserves suggest a competitive push to secure a share of the asset’s fixed supply. With a $2 trillion market cap and growing institutional presence, Bitcoin is increasingly viewed as a credible reserve option alongside traditional holdings.

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Shocking Amount of BTC Absorbed by Buyers During Recent Market Turmoil

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Bitcoin (BTC) has once again surged past $105,000, propelled by the easing of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East; however, an even more noteworthy story lies beneath the surface: the market has absorbed a colossal wave of profit taking without collapsing.

About 720,000 BTC, sold mainly by recent buyers since mid-April, has been met with an equally strong demand, preventing a more resounding crash despite a $66 billion surge in the Realized Cap of coins held for less than one month.

Profit-Taking Meets Fresh Demand

According to on-chain analyst Axel Adler Jr., the $66 billion increase in Realized Cap for the 0-1 month cohort since April 13 is definitive proof of large-scale profit realization by short-term holders.

While such aggressive selling pressure would typically trigger significant downside, Adler highlighted a critical counterforce: new buyers entering the market have been steadily absorbing this massive supply.

In his opinion, this offsetting has kept Bitcoin trading within a relatively narrow range in the last few weeks.

However, his UTXO Block Profit/Loss Count Ratio Model indicates the profit-taking frenzy may have subsided, dropping from an extreme 34,000 points near BTC’s all-time high in May to just 216 points today.

“Profitable sales have almost disappeared,” noted Adler, while the proportion of loss-realizing transactions has increased. The likeliest explanation is that the wave of eager sellers has largely passed, replaced by buyers accumulating at lower levels, reducing the immediate risk of a sharp crash.

Meanwhile, the global markets are experiencing a sense of relief thanks to an unexpected ceasefire between Israel and Iran. U.S. President Donald Trump confirmed a “Complete and Total” cessation of hostilities, quelling fears of a deeper conflict.

Following that, investors like Daan Crypto Trades and Michaël van de Poppe echoed cautious optimism on X, pointing out that reduced geopolitical risk could ease headline-driven volatility and help Bitcoin regain upward momentum.

What’s Next for Bitcoin?

Indeed, BTC has staged a noticeable recovery since dipping below the symbolic $100,000 mark after the U.S. unleashed airstrikes against several Iranian nuclear installations last week. As of this writing, the king cryptocurrency had climbed 3.8% in the last 24 hours to hover around $105,400 after going as high as $105,927 during the Asian trading session.

On a weekly scale, it remains slightly underwater, down about 1.1%, which is a modest underperformance compared to the broader crypto market’s 0.4% gain over the same period.

The asset also experienced a slight 1.7% dip over the last 30 days, reflecting recent liquidation cascades and historical Q3 headwinds. As analyst Benjamin Cowen previously highlighted, Bitcoin often struggles through the summer months. Past bull cycles saw steep drops of 25–35% between June and July before roaring back in late Q4.

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Nano Labs Bets $500M on Binance Coin (BNB) as Treasury

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Nano Labs, a Nasdaq-listed crypto infrastructure company, has announced a $500 million convertible note deal that it will use to acquire BNB as a strategic treasury reserve.

The Hong Kong-based firm, known for designing crypto mining chips, is targeting up to $1 billion worth of BNB, which will eventually put its holding at between 5% and 10% of the token’s entire circulating supply.

BNB Ecosystem Integration

The company’s aggressive move represents a major strategic pivot. It previously focused on Bitcoin (BTC), adopting it as a reserve asset and buying $5.5 million worth of the cryptocurrency late last year.

According to a press release, funding for the BNB accumulation will be provided through convertible notes that mature in 360 days. After that, they’ll be converted into Nano Labs shares at $20 each.

Applauding the initiative, Binance founder Changpeng Zhao clarified that none of his “affiliated entities” participated in the fundraiser, though he remains “extremely supportive.”

Nano Labs is also planning to apply for Hong Kong stablecoin licenses and has specifically mentioned building frameworks for Bitcoin and BNB.

The two developments suggest a cohesive strategy by the firm to position itself at the heart of Hong Kong’s burgeoning regulated crypto market, leveraging the recently passed Stablecoins Bill, which is set to become effective at the beginning of August.

Market Reaction

Since the announcement, Nano Labs’ stock has skyrocketed 163% in pre-market trading according to Google Finance, signaling intense investor interest.

However, the immediate impact on the price of BNB has been more measured. As of this writing, the token had seen a 3.3% increase in the 24 hours following the disclosure, to trade around $638. Nonetheless, this uptick occurred against a backdrop of recent weakness. BNB has been down 2.5% over the past seven days and 3.5% in the last month, underperforming the global crypto market, which is up a slight 0.10% weekly.

Furthermore, technical analysis prior to the news breaking indicated BNB was in a downtrend since being rejected at the $692 resistance in late May, with critical support levels at $630 and $600.

While the Nano Labs commitment provides fundamental support, BNB may still face an uphill battle to reclaim its bullish momentum and challenge its all-time high of $788.84, reached just seven months ago in December 2024.

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