Analysts at the market intelligence platform CryptoQuant have identified concerning signals from on-chain valuation metrics that suggest bitcoin (BTC) may be at the onset of a bear season.

According to a CryptoQuant report, bitcoin’s correction is not unusual in terms of magnitude because such dips have been witnessed in past bull runs. However, the state of all valuation metrics suggests the leading cryptocurrency is either at deep value levels or in a deeper correction phase than typically seen during bull seasons.

BTC in Bearish Territory?

CryptoQuant said all Bitcoin valuation metrics indicate that the market is in bearish territory. The Bitcoin Bull-Bear Market Cycle Indicator is at its most bearish level in this cycle, while the Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) Ratio Z-score has plunged below its 365-day moving average.

The MVRV Ratio Z-score’s fall below its 365-day moving average indicates that bitcoin’s upward price momentum has become weak. Historical data reveals that when the MVRV Ratio and the Bull-Bear Market Cycle Indicator fall to their current levels, then BTC is either in a sharp correction or at the brink of a bear market.

Bitcoin demand is not left out. This metric is still in contraction territory, and whales have reduced their accumulation pace. Last week, Bitcoin’s apparent demand contracted at its fastest pace since July 2024, plummeting swiftly by 103,000 BTC. Besides whales, other large investors are seeing their annual rate of BTC accumulation fall significantly—from 368,000 BTC in January to 268,000 BTC today.

BTC Could Fall to $63K

With the growth of large investors’ holdings falling, U.S.-based spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) have become net BTC sellers – a trend that sharply contrasts their purchases in the same period last year.

CryptoQuant found that spot Bitcoin ETFs have cumulatively bought BTC worth $0.7 billion so far this year, a far cry from the $8.7 billion purchases seen this time in 2024. This indicates that these funds have been net sellers this year, putting additional downward pressure on bitcoin’s price.

Additionally, the volume of BTC flowing into the American crypto exchange Coinbase from other trading platforms has fallen below the 90-day moving average. This is evident in CryptoQuant’s Inter-exchange Flow Pulse, which has been in a period of price correction since February 13 while BTC was trading around $96,000. Coins often flow into Coinbase when demand is high.

Meanwhile, CryptoQuant analysts think BTC could plummet to $63,000 if it fails to hold the support level between $75,000 and $78,000. The asset was worth $82,000 at press time, and $63,000 represents the Trader’s minimum On-chain Realized Price minimum band.

Bitcoin’s price performance over the weekend continues in a calm fashion as the asset has remained close to the $84,000 level.

Most altcoins are slightly in the red on a daily scale, aside from Ton after positive news around Telegram’s founder, Pavel Durov.

BTC Stands Still at $84K

It was a highly volatile week for the primary cryptocurrency from the get-go. It all started on Monday with a six- grand price drop that drove the asset south to $80,000. Although it managed to defend that level at first and bounced off to $84,000, the bears kept the pressure on and it lost it on Tuesday.

At the time, the cryptocurrency plunged to a four-month low of under $77,000. The bulls finally intercepted the move and didn’t allow another price breakdown. In fact, BTC jumped above $80,000 and spiked to $84,000 on Thursday.

It was first stopped there despite the favorable US CPI data for February. Nevertheless, it shot up on Friday and jumped past $85,000 for the first time since the previous weekend. It has lost some ground since then, and it trades at around $84,000 for most of the weekend.

Its market capitalization remains stuck below $1.670 trillion, while its dominance over the alts is still just shy of 59%.

TON on the Rise

The biggest news within the cryptocurrency community yesterday came from France and concerned Telegram’s founder, Pavel Durov. After being arrested in August 2024, the French authorities finally returned his passport on Saturday, as announced by the TON Foundation.

Expectedly, Toncoin exploded immediately after the news broke by over 20%. Although it has retraced slightly since yesterday’s peak, it’s still up by double digits now.

MNT is the other notable gainer from the larger-cap alts, having surged by 8%. AVAX is up by 3%, while most other crypto assets are in the red, including XRP, DOGE, LTC, and ADA.

The total crypto market cap has shed about $30 billion since yesterday’s peak and is below $2.840 trillion now.

Bitcoin has recently rebounded from the critical $78K support level and is now testing a significant resistance at $85K.

If it manages to reclaim this level, the next target will likely be the $90K region.

Technical Analysis

By Shayan

The Daily Chart

BTC’s recent price action has seen a slight rebound from the ascending wedge’s lower boundary, which aligns with the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level at $78K. This confluence of support levels strengthens the likelihood of buyers defending this area in the mid-term.

However, Bitcoin has now headed toward a key resistance zone at $85K, which coincides with the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement level and the 200-day moving average. While a breakout above this region could trigger a surge toward the $90K threshold, the presence of sellers at this level suggests that further consolidation is the more probable short-term scenario.

The 4-Hour Chart

On the lower timeframe, Bitcoin’s recent upward movement has brought it close to the upper boundary of the descending wedge at $85K. This pattern often signals a bullish market rebound if the price breaches the upper trendline. If Bitcoin sustains its momentum and successfully breaks above this resistance, a rally toward the $90K level will likely follow.

However, given the current market conditions and the lack of strong buying demand, further consolidation within the wedge remains the more likely short-term outcome.

On-chain Analysis

By Shayan

The Realized Cap UTXO Age Bands (%) is a valuable on-chain metric that illustrates the distribution percentage of Bitcoin based on the duration they have been held.

According to the latest data, the percentage of coins held for 3 to 6 months has been rising rapidly, mirroring the accumulation patterns observed during the prolonged correction in the summer of 2024. This trend highlights a holding sentiment, where investors refrain from selling their Bitcoin despite the current market correction.

Historically, this type of resilience among Bitcoin holders has played a crucial role in forming market bottoms and igniting new uptrends. As long-term holders continue accumulating, the available supply in circulation decreases, making Bitcoin more scarce. When demand eventually picks up, this supply squeeze often leads to price surges, pushing Bitcoin toward new record highs.

Given this behavior, the data suggests that Bitcoin’s current market phase is more of a healthy correction rather than the start of a prolonged bear market. Many market participants still view Bitcoin as a long-term valuable investment, reinforcing the potential for an eventual bullish continuation.