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How Will Markets React to $1B Bitcoin Options Expiring Today

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Approximately 17,400 Bitcoin options contracts are due for expiry on Friday, Oct. 4. These contracts have a notional value of around $1 billion.

Today’s options expiry is much smaller than last week’s mammoth end-of-the-month and end-of-the-quarter event, so it is unlikely to impact spot markets, which have been retreating this week.

Bitcoin Options Expiry

This week’s tranche of Bitcoin options contracts has a put/call ratio of 0.75. This means that slightly more long (call) contracts are expiring than shorts (puts).

Additionally, open interest (OI), or the value of open options contracts yet to expire, is still high at the strike price of $70,000 with $841 million.

OI at the $80,000 and $90,000 strike prices has fallen. However, according to Deribit, there is still $968 million at the $100,000 strike price.

Crypto derivatives provider Greeks Live shared its outlook for markets earlier this week, stating that “crypto markets are entering a shakeout” before adding:

“Quarterly delivery is over, major maturity IVs (implied volatility) are at lower levels and there is still a lot of downward pressure this week, historically October is generally a better month and now is a good opportunity to buy.”

In addition to today’s Bitcoin options, there are around 119,000 Ethereum options about to expire, with a notional value of $282 million and a put/call ratio of 0.68. This brings the total expiry event to around $1.3 billion.

Crypto Market Outlook

Crypto markets declined another 2% on the day, with total capitalization dropping to $2.21 trillion, its lowest level since mid-September.

Moreover, markets have dumped $200 billion since the beginning of this month, dispelling the hype of an “Uptober” to follow “Slumptember.”

Bitcoin hit an intraday low of $59,950 in late trading on Thursday but recovered to reclaim $61,000 during the Friday morning Asian trading session. However, that also looked precarious, with the asset falling back again at the time of writing.

Ethereum prices mirrored the action, dropping close to $2,300 before a marginal recovery to $2,370 at the time of writing. ETH has dumped 10% over the past seven days as the wave of FUD returns.

Most altcoins were in the red this Friday morning, as they have been for most of this week.

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Cryptocurrency

ADA, XRP Take Main Stage With 8% Gains, BTC Consolidation Continues (Weekend Watch)

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Bitcoin’s calmness over the weekend continues as the asset has failed to make a major move from its tight range between $94,000 and $95,000.

In contrast, several altcoins, such as XRP, ADA, and XLM, have posted significant gains over the weekend, while SUI has plunged hard.

ADA, XLM, XRP on the Rise

As reported on Saturday evening, Ripple’s cross-border token stole the show with a massive surge from $2.33 to $2.5. The asset kept climbing in the following hours and tapped a multi-week peak of $2.6 before correcting slightly to $2.52 now.

Cardano’s native token is the other massive gainer from the larger-cap alts. ADA has soared by nearly 9% over the past day and now sits at the coveted resistance level of $1. XLM has also gone on a tear, surging by more than 7% and now trading close to $0.45.

In contrast, SUI has dumped by over 3% to $4.82, while TRX, SHIB, and BNB are also slightly in the red. On the other hand, ETH, SOL, DOGE, AVAX, TON, LINK, HBAR, and DOT have marked minor gains over the past 24 hours.

The cumulative market capitalization of all crypto assets has remained at essentially the same spot as yesterday at just shy of $3.450 trillion on CG.

Cryptocurrency Market Overview. Source: QuantifyCrypto
Cryptocurrency Market Overview. Source: QuantifyCrypto

BTC Calms at $94K

The primary cryptocurrency had a highly eventful and volatile trading week in which it soared past $102,000 on Tuesday, only to crash by more than ten grand in the next 48 hours. This multi-week low took place on Thursday as BTC came close to breaking below $91,000 and even $90,000.

More volatility ensued in the following hours, with a jump toward $96,000 and a rejection that pushed it back to almost $92,000.

However, the bulls managed to defend the latter and pushed BTC to $94,000 where it has spent most of the weekend, aside from a brief spike to $95,000.

As such, bitcoin’s market cap remains at $1.865 trillion on CG, but its dominance over the alts is down to 54.2%.

BTCUSD. Source: TradingView
BTCUSD. Source: TradingView
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Disclaimer: Information found on CryptoPotato is those of writers quoted. It does not represent the opinions of CryptoPotato on whether to buy, sell, or hold any investments. You are advised to conduct your own research before making any investment decisions. Use provided information at your own risk. See Disclaimer for more information.

Cryptocurrency charts by TradingView.

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Cryptocurrency

2 Metrics Indicate Ripple (XRP) Price Faces Trouble After Recent Surge to $2.60

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TL:DR;

  • XRP’s price went on an unexpected run on Saturday night, surging to a multi-week peak of $2.6 before correcting slightly.
  • However, some on-chain metrics suggest that the asset could face trouble in the following days, especially if it fails to close above $2.47.
XRPUSD. Source: TradingView
XRPUSD. Source: TradingView

As reported on Saturday evening, XRP’s rally drove the asset from $2.33 to $2.5 and later to $2.6, which represented an 11.5% surge within less than 24 hours. Although the asset has lost some steam since then and currently sits at $2.51, it’s still over 6% up on the day.

This came shortly after reports emerged that whales had amassed more than a billion XRP tokens within a mere 48-hour period during the most recent correction in the middle of the business week.

However, this is where the popular crypto analyst Ali Martinez sounded the alarm about a potential drawback for XRP’s price.

At first, he pointed out that the TD Sequential, a technical indicator used to show the market exhaustion in either direction, had flashed a sell signal on the 4-hour chart. Nevertheless, this bearish formation will be invalidated if the asset closes above that line, which it still maintains.

Additionally, Martinez highlighted a growing number of short positions opened when XRP peaked at $2.6. Recall that Ripple’s cross-border token was among the few with notable gains on Saturday evening while the rest of the market stood silently.

Many traders might have anticipated a short-term correction due to XRP’s divergence from the pack, which indeed occurred to the current levels. The question now remains whether the cryptocurrency will remain above the aforementioned support or that was just the start of a broader correction.

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Cryptocurrency

Ripple Price Analysis: Can XRP’s Momentum Sustain After 8% Daily Surge?

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Ripple displayed low market activity, as reflected in its subdued price action for a while before a sudden surge to $2.6 yesterday.

The price remains confined within a sideways wedge pattern, highlighting a phase of consolidation and indecision. A decisive breakout is necessary to establish a sustained market direction.

XRP Analysis

By Shayan

The Daily Chart

Ripple’s current low volatility signals a lack of trading interest, potentially linked to broader macroeconomic factors, such as uncertainty surrounding President Trump’s transition to the White House. XRP’s price remains trapped within a wedge pattern and oscillates in the $2-$3 range even though it jumped to $2.6 yesterday evening.

A breakout from this range is crucial, as it will likely dictate Ripple’s long-term trend. A bullish breakout could trigger a rally, while a bearish breakout may result in significant declines.

The 4-Hour Chart

On the 4-hour timeframe, Ripple found support at the 0.5 Fibonacci level ($2), prompting a minor upward move. However, the price has now entered a low volatility phase with no clear directional bias.

Ripple faces significant support near the 0.5 ($2) and 0.618 Fibonacci levels, which have served as strong defenses for buyers in recent months. If buyers manage to defend this region, XRP may experience a bullish spike. However, if sellers push the price below this key support zone, the market could face long liquidations, leading to a substantial decline.

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Disclaimer: Information found on CryptoPotato is those of writers quoted. It does not represent the opinions of CryptoPotato on whether to buy, sell, or hold any investments. You are advised to conduct your own research before making any investment decisions. Use provided information at your own risk. See Disclaimer for more information.

Cryptocurrency charts by TradingView.

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