Cryptocurrency
How Will Markets React to $2B Bitcoin Options Expiring Today?
Approximately 20,000 Bitcoin options contracts will expire on Friday, Jan. 3, in the first such event of 2025.
They have a notional value of $1.93 billion, which is a fraction of last week’s mammoth end-of-year expiry event, so the impact on spot markets is likely to be minimal.
Bitcoin Options Expiry
This week’s batch of Bitcoin options contracts has a put/call ratio of 0.68, meaning that there are more long (call) contracts expiring than short (put) contract sellers.
Open interest, or the value or number of options contracts yet to expire, is highest at the $120,000 strike price, with $1.4 billion in OI, according to Deribit. There is also $1.3 billion in OI at $110,000, so derivatives traders remain bullish with open contracts at higher strike prices.
On Jan. 2, Deribit reported that the continuous trading market, or perpetual swaps, is showing more optimistic signals, similar to what was seen before the recent downturn.
“Options markets report a similarly mixed message: BTC’s short-tenor volatility smiles remain slightly more skewed toward OTM puts, while longer tenors have increased their bullish tilt.”
It added that December’s end-of-year expiration of a significant proportion of the market’s OI in options “did not result in the fireworks that some expected.”
Earlier this week, crypto derivatives provider Greeks Live observed that a major short call position had been put on Bitcoin with a notional value of $42 million. The speculator is betting that BTC will not exceed $150,000 by March 28 and stands to net $900,000 from the bet if successful.
In addition to today’s Bitcoin options, around 205,000 Ethereum contracts are expiring today. These have a notional value of $710 million and a put/call ratio of 0.82.
This brings Friday’s combined crypto options expiry notional value to around $2.6 billion.
Crypto Market Outlook
Around $160 billion has entered crypto markets since the beginning of the year on Wednesday, lifting total capitalization to $3.56 trillion.
Bitcoin has had a solid 24 hours, gaining 1.7% to stand close to the $97,000 level during early trading in Asia on Friday. However, it remains range-bound and needs to clear resistance at the psychological $100,000 level to see further momentum.
Meanwhile, Ethereum, which has been predicted to perform well this quarter, has fared better, gaining 2% on the day as it approaches the $3,500 price level. ETH needs to clear $3,600 to break resistance and notch further gains.
The altcoins were pretty much all in the green this Friday, with most of them outpacing Bitcoin on daily gains.
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Cryptocurrency
Analysts Post Thrilling Bitcoin Price Predictions for 2025: Where’s the Top?
The little orange cryptocurrency was one of several digital assets in this segment that walloped 2024 gains from investing in US stocks like those in the S&P 500 Index or Nasdaq Composite.
Others, like Ripple’s XRP tokens for international settlements between large institutions, performed even better than Bitcoin. XRP was up 247% by Christmas Day in December. It notched 271% for the entire year on Wednesday.
But here’s how some leading crypto market analysts expect Bitcoin’s price to carry through some point over the 2025 calendar year.
For a basis of reference, Bitcoin traded at an average crypto exchange rate of $94,700 Wednesday evening US Eastern Time, according to data from CoinGecko.
Bitcoin Price Predictions: $80,000 – $160,000
Peter Brandt: $78,000
Brandt made a prediction on Sunday, Dec. 29, targeting a big drop in Bitcoin’s price to the $78,000 level, based on a 45-day head and shoulders top pattern.
This is a head and shoulders top pattern. It might complete and take price to $78,000; it might fail with a thrust hire: or, it might morph into something else. But as it stands right now, it is a head and shoulders top and must be chartist dealt with for what it is. pic.twitter.com/b9AUUO7ddL
— Peter Brandt (@PeterLBrandt) December 29, 2024
If he’s right, BTC will have to take one step back before it advances toward the more bullish price targets for 2025. But Brandt also cautioned in the comment thread on his post, “Charts do NOT predict anything. Charts merely suggest possibilities.”
The famous stock chart technical analyst is bullish for XRP in 2025, but his outlook for Bitcoin’s price is bearish.
CoinShares: $80,000
European crypto hedge fund CoinShares’ head of research, James Butterfill, recently told CNBC that $150,000 BTC is possible in 2025. But he said a bearish correction to $80,000 is also on the cards.
“Disappointment surrounding Trump’s proposed crypto policies and doubts about their enactment could prompt a significant market correction,” Butterfill warned.
Bullish 2025 BTC Targets: $160,000 – $250,000
Standard Chartered: $200,000
British multinational bank Standard Chartered’s research head Geoff Kendrick says his office is targeting $200,000 BTC in 2025. He added that the entry of the United States government into the Bitcoin race is likely to fuel that rally.
“Even a small allocation of the USD 40tn in US retirement funds would significantly boost BTC prices,” Kendrick noted.
“We would turn even more bullish if BTC saw more rapid uptake by US retirement funds, global sovereign wealth funds (SWFs), or a potential US strategic reserve fund.”
Nexo: $250,000
Swiss-based crypto fund manager Nexo’s chief product officer, Elitsa Taskova, told CNBC, “We see Bitcoin more than doubling to $250,000 within a year.”
She points to ongoing trends in adoption by institutional finance and social indicators for the bullish outlook in 2025.
“These projections align with ongoing trends and social markers: increasing recognition of Bitcoin as a reserve asset, more Bitcoin and crypto-related exchange-traded products (ETPs), and stronger adoption,” Taskova said.
Bottom Line for Investors
Like stocks, cryptocurrency assets are held at risk. But for more than a decade, Bitcoin has delivered world-class returns during bull markets. That means it’s possible for a small allocation to BTC can substantially speed individual investment portfolios toward reaching personal finance goals.
Nevertheless, investors should do their own research before allocating funds into any asset, no matter its returns over the past year or two.
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Cryptocurrency
From $2 to $11: Popular Analyst Maps Out Ripple’s (XRP) Next Big Move
TL:DR;
- XRP rebounded from its most recent price slip below $2, but the asset might not be out of the woods yet.
- However, a popular crypto analyst suggested that a potential decline toward that level again could be beneficial for XRP’s long-term price movements.
Ripple’s cross-border token went on a massive run after the US elections, skyrocketing by triple digits at one point and peaking close to $3. All of these gains came in the span of a few weeks, but the asset lost momentum at the start of December.
It tumbled hard on several occasions in the following weeks, with the latest decline to under $2 transpiring last Monday – December 30. This came during the most recent market-wide correction.
However, the popular crypto asset reacted well to this decline and shot up by over 20% since then, currently sitting at around $2.45. Consequently, XRP has regained its spot as the third-largest cryptocurrency by market cap by surpassing Tether’s USDT.
According to analyst Ali Martinez, XRP still stands below a steep resistance level of $2.73, which has stopped its price ascent on a couple of occasions during this rally. If the asset fails to overcome it soon, it could slump back to $2.05.
However, Martinez actually believes that such a scenario could be a blessing in disguise for XRP, which could catapult it toward a fresh all-time high above $3.4 (CoinGecko data) and all the way up to $11.
$XRP is still consolidating within the pennant of a massive bull pennant pattern. Until the $2.73 resistance is broken, a pullback to $2.05 remains possible before a potential breakout to $11! pic.twitter.com/ET39FJMtAc
— Ali (@ali_charts) January 4, 2025
It’s safe to say that $11 sounds quite extraordinary for XRP. Such a price tag would put the asset’s market cap at well over $600 billion, which would help it top Ethereum in that regard. Although this might sound plausible under a friendlier Trump administration, it’s still a long way away and falls under the category of exaggerated price predictions.
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Cryptocurrency
2 Strong Indicators US Investors Are Flocking Back to Bitcoin
The landscape around bitcoin after the last FOMC meeting for 2024 in the US turned upside down, with local investors pulling funds out of the ETFs and the Coinbase Premium Index declining to yearly lows.
However, on-chain data shows that US investors are back on the BTC front, with massive accumulations.
ETFs Demand Returns
During the aforementioned meeting at the highest levels in the US central bank, Fed Chair Jerome Powell warned that there might be fewer or even no rate cuts in 2025 due to rising inflation. US investors reacted immediately and started pulling funds out of riskier assets like BTC and crypto.
Within the next four trading days, they withdrew more than $1.5 billion out of the US-based Bitcoin exchange-traded funds. December 26 was the only day well in the green, as December 27, 30, and January 2 saw more net outflows. Even BlackRock’s IBIT, the world’s largest Bitcoin ETF, was posting negative records.
However, this changed on Friday, January 3. The total net inflows for the day shot up to $908.1 million, according to FarSide data. IBIT was actually second with $253.1 million, trailing behind Fidelity’s FBTC with $357 million. Ark Invest’s ARKB also had a strong presence, attracting $222.6 million. This became the best day in terms of net inflows since November 21.
Coinbase Premium Index
The other metric that showcases US investors’ overall behavior toward bitcoin and crypto is the Coinbase Premium Index, which measures the BTC price difference between Coinbase and Binance. When it shoots up into positive territory, this means that US-based investors are accumulating heavily, and vice versa.
The metric recently plunged to a yearly low, as reported, which coincided with the growing ETF outflows after the FOMC meeting. Now, though, CryptoQuant data shows that it has returned to neutral territory almost immediately after posting that low. This shows that “sentiment by the US and institutional investors is back.”
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