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How Will Markets React to $2B Bitcoin Options Expiring Today?

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Approximately 20,000 Bitcoin options contracts will expire on Friday, Jan. 3, in the first such event of 2025.

They have a notional value of $1.93 billion, which is a fraction of last week’s mammoth end-of-year expiry event, so the impact on spot markets is likely to be minimal.

Bitcoin Options Expiry

This week’s batch of Bitcoin options contracts has a put/call ratio of 0.68, meaning that there are more long (call) contracts expiring than short (put) contract sellers.

Open interest, or the value or number of options contracts yet to expire, is highest at the $120,000 strike price, with $1.4 billion in OI, according to Deribit. There is also $1.3 billion in OI at $110,000, so derivatives traders remain bullish with open contracts at higher strike prices.

Bitcoin options OI by expiry. Source: Deribit

On Jan. 2, Deribit reported that the continuous trading market, or perpetual swaps, is showing more optimistic signals, similar to what was seen before the recent downturn.

“Options markets report a similarly mixed message: BTC’s short-tenor volatility smiles remain slightly more skewed toward OTM puts, while longer tenors have increased their bullish tilt.”

It added that December’s end-of-year expiration of a significant proportion of the market’s OI in options “did not result in the fireworks that some expected.”

Earlier this week, crypto derivatives provider Greeks Live observed that a major short call position had been put on Bitcoin with a notional value of $42 million. The speculator is betting that BTC will not exceed $150,000 by March 28 and stands to net $900,000 from the bet if successful.

In addition to today’s Bitcoin options, around 205,000 Ethereum contracts are expiring today. These have a notional value of $710 million and a put/call ratio of 0.82.

This brings Friday’s combined crypto options expiry notional value to around $2.6 billion.

Crypto Market Outlook

Around $160 billion has entered crypto markets since the beginning of the year on Wednesday, lifting total capitalization to $3.56 trillion.

Bitcoin has had a solid 24 hours, gaining 1.7% to stand close to the $97,000 level during early trading in Asia on Friday. However, it remains range-bound and needs to clear resistance at the psychological $100,000 level to see further momentum.

Meanwhile, Ethereum, which has been predicted to perform well this quarter, has fared better, gaining 2% on the day as it approaches the $3,500 price level. ETH needs to clear $3,600 to break resistance and notch further gains.

The altcoins were pretty much all in the green this Friday, with most of them outpacing Bitcoin on daily gains.

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Cryptocurrency

3 Things to Watch in Ripple’s (XRP) Price Today

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XRP is testing the resistance at $2.3. Will it break?

Key Support levels: $2

Key Resistance levels: $2.3, $2.6, $3

1. Key Resistance Under Pressure

Yesterday, buyers pushed XRP to the key resistance at $2.3, but sellers returned to stop a breakout. At the time of this post, the price is in a pullback. Nevertheless, this is a positive sign that shows buyers are returning. If this bullish momentum intensifies, then $2.3 could fall and be followed by a test of $2.6 next.

XRPUSDT_2025-07-01_11-55-28
Chart by TradingView

2. Optimism Returns

With the price keen on making higher highs, optimism is returning to this cryptocurrency. This can be seen on the volume profile where buyers have dominated in the last few days. A break above $2.3 will likely see the volume spike and allow further price expansion into new highs.

XRPUSDT_2025-07-01_11-55-56
Chart by TradingView

3. MACD Turning Bullish

After the daily MACD turned positive last week, the 2-day MACD has also turned bullish today. This shows that the buy momentum is slowly creeping into higher timeframes which will build confidence in the price action and attract more buyers. With a positive feedback loop in action, XRP has a good shot at $2.6 or even higher in July.

XRPUSDT_2025-07-01_11-56-50
Chart by TradingView
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Cryptocurrency

Bitcoin Traders Wait Important Economic Announcements Today, These Altcoins Plummet (Market Watch)

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Bitcoin’s price has retraced by a slight 0.9% in the past 24 hours as traders are expecting a few important economic events during today’s session.

Meanwhile, the broader cryptocurrency market is also reflecting the uncertainty as the majority of altcoins are trading in the red with some charting a lot bigger declines than others.

Bitcoin Price Waits for News

The deep involvement of corporate Bitcoin buyers and institutions has surely played a major role in its price increase over the past year but it’s also the reason why the crypto market has been largely correlated to traditional ones.

A few years ago, literally nobody cared about metrics such as CPI, PMI, and whatnot, but now every crypto trader has them on their watchlist.

As such, today is also shaping up to be a volatile experience with a few important economic events on the calendar.

First, Jerome Powell will speak in the afternoon, followed by data for job openings, PMI, and ISM manufacturing – all indicators that shape policymaking, especially when gauging the strenght of the local economy.

That said, Bitocin’s price is down about 1% on the day and is currently trading at around $106,500 after having tested $109,000 yesterday. It’s interesting to see if the bulls have it in them to push bakc towards the upper boundary of the recent trading range or if the bears will send the price back below $105K.

BTCUSD_2025-07-01_12-41-24
Source: TradingView

Altcoins in Red, Some More Than Others

As you can clearly see in the heatmap below, the altcoins are also not having a great day. This is, perhaps, to be expected – Bitcoin’s dominance over the market has been rising gradually over the past many months and whenever BTC slips, altcoins crash.

The past 24 hours have hardly been a crash, though, but it’s clear that most of them are charting more considerable declines.

This is especially true for TKX, ARB, SPX6900, SEI, and others, that are down between 8% and 15% on the day.

Believe it or not, Bitcoin Cash (BCH) is today’s best performer, gaining more than 6%. Who would have thought?

Screenshot 2025-07-01 at 12.44.19
Source: Quantify Crypto
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Disclaimer: Information found on CryptoPotato is those of writers quoted. It does not represent the opinions of CryptoPotato on whether to buy, sell, or hold any investments. You are advised to conduct your own research before making any investment decisions. Use provided information at your own risk. See Disclaimer for more information.

Cryptocurrency charts by TradingView.

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Cryptocurrency

How Much You Should Invest in Bitcoin (BTC)? Veteran Trader Peter Brandt Weighs in

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TL;DR

  • The expert advises monthly investments in SPY and BTC for long-term success.
  • The leading cryptocurrency is up 6% this week and trades near $108,000. Analysts are split – some see a breakout to $130K – $200K if key resistance levels are cleared, while others warn of a possible drop to $100K or even $95K if momentum fades.

‘Trading is the Wrong Path’

Besides its fundamentals and ability to transform the global financial system, Bitcoin (BTC) has proven to be an excellent investment opportunity.

At least, that was the case in the past few years: the asset went through multiple bear and bull markets to eventually cross the $100,000 mark. Currently, it trades at around $108,000 (according to CoinGecko’s data), representing a 75% increase on a yearly scale and a substantial 43,000% jump compared to its valuation a decade ago.

But does the leading cryptocurrency remain a good investment after this major rally over the years, and how much should people allocate to it? That’s a question many people are trying to figure out.

It seems that there isn’t a direct answer, and it all depends on the risk profile of the investors, as well as other important factors. However, one can turn to certain experts who are experienced enough to give guidance. 

An example is the veteran trader Peter Brandt, who recently suggested that approximately 95% of people fail when trading. Instead, he advised them to excel in their regular jobs, prioritize their families, and invest in homeownership. Last but not least, Brandt recommended making monthly investments, allocating 80% of the amount to SPY (the ETF that tracks the S&P 500 Index) and 20% to BTC.

The Next Potential Targets

Let’s now take a closer look at BTC’s recent performance and explore its chances for a further pump in the short term. The asset has increased in value by approximately 6% over the past week, with numerous analysts predicting a surge to a new all-time high if certain conditions are met.

The X user Cipher X believes “a strong weekly close” above $107,720 could open the door to a further rally to as high as $130,000-$135,000 in Q3 2025.

“Just look at Q4 2024 chart and you’ll see what happened when BTC had its biggest weekly close,” they added.

Merlijn The Trader thinks the final pump for this bull run is coming, envisioning a fresh ATH of around $200,000 towards the end of the year. At the same time, he advised investors to take profits, anticipating a drastic pullback to $95,000 shortly after that.

On the contrary, Ali Martinez argued that the cryptocurrency currently faces a key rejection while the stochastic RSI flashes a death cross on the daily chart. The analyst thinks a plunge to $100,000 is not out of the question unless “we get a sustained close” above $109,000.

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