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If History Repeats, Here’s How High Bitcoin (BTC) Price Can Go Post Halving (Analysis)

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With the fourth halving event scheduled for April this year, speculation about Bitcoin’s future trajectory is rampant.

One notable voice in this conversation is Charles Edwards, the founder of hedge fund Capriole Investments, who has made a striking prediction – if Bitcoin’s post-halving returns mimic those of 2020, the market could be witnessing a staggering $280,000 valuation within the next year.

2020: “Worst Bitcoin Bull Market”

Matching the exceptional performance seen in 2020 could be viewed as an overly optimistic forecast for Bitcoin. However, Edwards dismissed 2020 as an outlier, labeling it as the worst Bitcoin bull market in history.

He further attributed this underwhelming performance to two significant factors: the substantial decline in the mining network, primarily due to China’s crackdown, and the subsequent aggressive tightening cycle of the Federal Reserve.

In contrast, Edwards pointed to a starkly different landscape in 2024. Quantitative easing has resumed, and the Fed, under Chair Powell’s leadership, is anticipated to implement three interest rate cuts this year alone. This dovish stance suggested a weaker dollar, which historically correlates with a stronger Bitcoin.

Moreover, Edwards also drew attention to the recent launch of spot Bitcoin ETFs, likening their impact to a “second halving.”

A $300,000 Bitcoin Price Prediction

The crypto analyst highlighted the growth of the gold market following the introduction of the GLD ETF in 2004, suggesting that Bitcoin, with its smaller market cap, could potentially experience even more substantial gains.

The rapid pace of technological adoption further bolstered Edwards’ bullish outlook. He asserted that Bitcoin’s growth trajectory surpassed even that of the Internet, citing the increasing velocity of market movements in today’s digital age.

So, what’s the bottom line, according to Edwards? He predicted a 500% return over the 18 months following the halving, coupled with an additional 300% appreciation over the next 2-5 years from the ETFs alone. Combining these factors led him to a conservative estimate of a $300,000 Bitcoin price within the next couple of years.

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Cryptocurrency

Ethereum Price Analysis: Is There More Trouble Ahead for ETH After 14% Weekly Drop?

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Ethereum’s price has been dropping consistently over the past couple of weeks and is yet to show any sign of recovery.

As things stand, a deeper decline could be expected in the coming weeks.

Technical Analysis

By Edris Derakhshi (TradingRage)

The Daily Chart

On the daily chart, the asset has gradually decreased after breaking the 200-day moving average, located around the $3,000 mark, to the downside.

The $2,700 level has also been lost, and the market could now target the $2,350 support zone. Yet, with the RSI entering the oversold region, a bullish pullback might occur soon, which could even put an end to the downtrend if the market can recover above the 200-day moving average.

The 4-Hour Chart

Looking at the 4-hour timeframe, it is evident that the price has been consolidating inside a tight descending channel around the $2,700 level. Currently, the market is testing this level from below, and if it gets rejected, a breakdown of the channel and a drop toward the $2,350 level would be imminent.

However, if the opposite scenario occurs and the $2,700 level is reclaimed, a rally toward the key $3,000 area would be likely.

On-Chain Analysis

By Edris Derakhshi (TradingRage)

Exchange Reserve

While Ethereum’s price has been experiencing an aggressive downtrend, things might be looking attractive for long-term investors who like to buy the dip. This is somehow evident when looking at the Ethereum exchange reserve.

The metric measures the total amount of ETH that is held in exchange wallets. It is considered a proxy for supply, as these coins can be quickly sold and add to the overall selling pressure.

As the chart suggests, however, the exchange reserve has recently taken a nose dive following the recent market crash. This indicates that some investors are aggressively accumulating during this correction, and the subsequent supply shrink could lead to a recovery.

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3 Bullish Signs for Bitcoin Following Recent Crash

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February began on the wrong foot, even though it’s historically a highly positive month for bitcoin. This time, though, the cryptocurrency plunged last Sunday and Monday by $15,000 within days.

Although the asset has failed to recover most of the losses since the end of January, the overall bullish sentiment remains strong on several fronts.

Fear Is Good

The aforementioned crash took bitcoin down hard as its price stood above $106,000 last Friday before it dumped toward $91,000 on Monday morning during the US tariffs-induced collapse. Such substantial price movements in either direction tend to influence the overall market sentiment, and this correction was no exception.

Popular crypto analyst Ali Martinez pushed a chart indicating that the crowd has turned negative toward BTC. Moreover, the Fear and Greed Index also went from ‘greed’ to ‘fear’ for the first time since the US elections in November. However, both of those could actually be a blessing in disguise for the largest crypto asset as “the best buying opportunities often come when crowd sentiment toward bitcoin is negative,” said Martinez.

Bitcoin Fear and Greed Index. Source: Alternative.me
Bitcoin Fear and Greed Index. Source: Alternative.me

Let’s not forget Warren Buffett’s timeless advice, suggesting that investors should be fearful when people are greedy and vice versa.

Critical Support and Buying Pressure

Martinez further highlighted $92,800 as the critical support that showcases whether the ongoing bull run is intact or not. If BTC maintains it, the MVRV pricing bands show that the bull case is still active, while a drop below it could spell trouble for the asset.

The cryptocurrency has slipped beneath that line on several occasions in the past few months but has managed to bounce above it almost immediately after each correction.

Lastly, the analyst asserted that investors operating on two of the biggest crypto exchanges – HTX and BitMEX – have gone on an accumulation spree as the buying pressure on both had gone through the roof in the past day or so.

Bonus: February

Although BTC is currently down by over 5% since the start of February, the second month of the year is historically a highly bullish one for the asset. This is particularly true for Februaries, which come after a halving year, such as the current one.

In 2021, BTC soared by nearly 37% in February; in 2017, its gains were a bit more modest at 23%, while in 2013, the cryptocurrency jumped by almost 62%.

Still, history is no indication of future price performances, but it does tend to rhyme sometimes.

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Disclaimer: Information found on CryptoPotato is those of writers quoted. It does not represent the opinions of CryptoPotato on whether to buy, sell, or hold any investments. You are advised to conduct your own research before making any investment decisions. Use provided information at your own risk. See Disclaimer for more information.

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Binance Coin Soars by Double Digits, Bitcoin Taps $97K (Weekend Watch)

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Bitcoin managed to defend the $96,000 level during yesterday’s correction, and the asset now sits above a grand higher in a calm weekend landscape.

The altcoins have bounced off, and Binance Coin leads the pack with a substantial increase, followed by SOL, AVAX, SUI, and others.

BTC Back to $97K

The previous weekend went badly for the primary cryptocurrency as US President Trump began a trade war with China, Canada, and Mexico. The tariffs he imposed on those countries led to an immediate crash in the crypto market, with BTC slumping from $106,000 on Friday to $97,000 on Sunday.

The correction worsened on Monday morning as the asset fell below $92,000 for the first time in a few weeks. However, the bulls finally stepped up at this point and didn’t allow a further breakdown beneath $90,000. Just the opposite, bitcoin recorded another ten grand move, this time in the opposite direction, and tapped $102,000.

It couldn’t maintain its run, though, and returned to five-digit price territory almost immediately. The second attempt to break above $100,000, which came on Friday, was also stopped in its tracks, and the subsequent rejection pushed BTC south to $96,000 yesterday.

It defended that line and now sits around $97,000 following a minor daily increase. Its market cap has gone up to $1.925 trillion on CG, but its dominance over the alts has taken a hit and is down to 58.2%.

BTCUSD. Source: TradingView
BTCUSD. Source: TradingView

BNB on the Run

Most altcoins have turned red today after yesterday’s crash. Ethereum is above $2,650 once again after a minor 2% increase. XRP is heading toward $2.5, following a 3.5% rise. Similar price pumps are evident from DOGE, LINk, ADA, and XLM. Solana, Avalanche, SUI, HBAR, and SHIB have recorded more impressive gains.

Binance Coin has stolen the show today. BNB has soared by nearly 12% in the past 24 hours and now trades at a multi-day peak of $645.

Other impressive gainers from the top 100 alts include FLOKI (14%), IMX (13%), FET (12%), TIA (11%), and RENDER (10%).

The total crypto market cap has added around $80 billion and is above $3.3 trillion now.

Cryptocurrency Market Overview. Source: QuantifyCrypto
Cryptocurrency Market Overview. Source: QuantifyCrypto
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Disclaimer: Information found on CryptoPotato is those of writers quoted. It does not represent the opinions of CryptoPotato on whether to buy, sell, or hold any investments. You are advised to conduct your own research before making any investment decisions. Use provided information at your own risk. See Disclaimer for more information.

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