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If History Repeats, Here’s How High Bitcoin (BTC) Price Can Go Post Halving (Analysis)

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With the fourth halving event scheduled for April this year, speculation about Bitcoin’s future trajectory is rampant.

One notable voice in this conversation is Charles Edwards, the founder of hedge fund Capriole Investments, who has made a striking prediction – if Bitcoin’s post-halving returns mimic those of 2020, the market could be witnessing a staggering $280,000 valuation within the next year.

2020: “Worst Bitcoin Bull Market”

Matching the exceptional performance seen in 2020 could be viewed as an overly optimistic forecast for Bitcoin. However, Edwards dismissed 2020 as an outlier, labeling it as the worst Bitcoin bull market in history.

He further attributed this underwhelming performance to two significant factors: the substantial decline in the mining network, primarily due to China’s crackdown, and the subsequent aggressive tightening cycle of the Federal Reserve.

In contrast, Edwards pointed to a starkly different landscape in 2024. Quantitative easing has resumed, and the Fed, under Chair Powell’s leadership, is anticipated to implement three interest rate cuts this year alone. This dovish stance suggested a weaker dollar, which historically correlates with a stronger Bitcoin.

Moreover, Edwards also drew attention to the recent launch of spot Bitcoin ETFs, likening their impact to a “second halving.”

A $300,000 Bitcoin Price Prediction

The crypto analyst highlighted the growth of the gold market following the introduction of the GLD ETF in 2004, suggesting that Bitcoin, with its smaller market cap, could potentially experience even more substantial gains.

The rapid pace of technological adoption further bolstered Edwards’ bullish outlook. He asserted that Bitcoin’s growth trajectory surpassed even that of the Internet, citing the increasing velocity of market movements in today’s digital age.

So, what’s the bottom line, according to Edwards? He predicted a 500% return over the 18 months following the halving, coupled with an additional 300% appreciation over the next 2-5 years from the ETFs alone. Combining these factors led him to a conservative estimate of a $300,000 Bitcoin price within the next couple of years.

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Ripple (XRP) Price Explosion, Shiba Inu’s (SHIB) Potential, and More: Bits Recap July 18

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TL;DR

  • XRP surged by 60% in the last month, hitting a new historic peak. Analysts predict further gains, with targets up to $10.
  • SHIB rose 30% in two weeks, yet 45% of holders remain in the red. Market observers see more upside based on certain chart patterns.
  • BTC dipped to $119K after peaking at $123K, but strong ETF inflows and whale activity suggest the bull run may continue.

XRP Reached Uncharted Territory

Ripple’s XRP has been on the crest of the wave recently, with its price tapping an all-time high (on most exchanges and data aggregators) of over $3.60. The asset’s investors had to wait more than seven years for this achievement since the previous peak of approximately $3.40 was registered at the start of 2018.

Meanwhile, XRP’s market capitalization surged well above $200 billion, solidifying the token as the third-largest cryptocurrency and widening the gap with the fourth, Tether’s USDT.

The coin’s massive rally appears to be a combination of multiple bullish factors, including rising public interest, growing network growth, whales’ accumulation, and the recent green light on some important crypto bills in the United States.

Unsurprisingly, crypto X is rammed with users expecting the uptrend to continue in the short term. Ali Martinez believes a weekly close above $3 could open the door for a price ascent to as high as $4.80. Others like Javon Marks were even more bullish, envisioning a rise to the major milestone of $10. 

What’s Going on With SHIB?

The second-largest meme coin experienced a 30% price increase over the last two weeks, while its market capitalization briefly exceeded $9 billion.

However, many of its holders await more substantial gains as they remain in the red. Earlier this week, the percentage of SHIB investors sitting on unrealized losses was around 54%, while currently it is 45%. This is so because a lot of holders joined the ecosystem years ago when Shiba Inu’s price was in much better condition.

SHIB Holders in Profit
SHIB Holders in Profit, Source: ITB

Still, numerous analysts think the meme coin has the potential to pump much more significantly during this bull cycle. X user CJ claimed SHIB has formed “a pretty epic structure” on its price chart and predicted a massive jump in the near term. 

Is BTC Ready for More?

While the leading cryptocurrency exploded to an all-time high of approximately $123,000 on July 14, it cooled off slightly in the following days. As of this writing, it trades at around $119,000, but certain indicators suggest the rally is far from being over. 

BTC’s Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV), for instance, currently stands at around 2.36. “Historically, values over 3.7 indicated price top and values below 1 indicated price bottom,” CryptoQuant explained.

BTC MVRV
BTC MVRV, Source: CryptoQuant

The flow of capital toward spot BTC ETFs remains solid, showing huge interest from investors, while the whales’ accumulation efforts can also be added to the bullish factors.

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Stellar Surges 61% Weekly, Peter Brandt Calls XLM the ‘Most Bullish’ Chart

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TL;DR

  • XLM climbs 61% in seven days, nearing key resistance after strong technical breakout signals.
  • Peter Brandt calls XLM the “most bullish chart,” eyes $1 breakout to confirm a multi-year pattern.
  • Franklin Templeton tokenizes $446M in U.S. Treasuries on Stellar blockchain, boosting confidence.

Brandt Eyes Breakout Above $1

Stellar (XLM) has gained over 60% in the past week, with the price reaching $0.48 at press time. It is up nearly 5% in the last 24 hours, backed by a 24-hour trading volume of $2.1 billion. The rally has drawn fresh attention after market veteran Peter Brandt described the XLM chart as “potentially the most bullish chart of all.”

Brandt stated that XLM must hold above its April 2025 low near $0.22 and “must must close decisively above $1” to confirm the setup. Until that happens, he said, the chart “will remain range bound.”

Price Structure Builds Toward Key Resistance

Notably, the long-term chart shows a potential ascending triangle along with a cup-and-handle pattern. Both patterns are forming below long-standing resistance at the $1.00 level. That resistance has been tested multiple times since 2018 but has not yet been broken on a closing basis.

XLM’s price is trading above both the 8-period and 18-period moving averages. The shorter-term average has crossed above the longer one, which often signals rising momentum. The ADX is at 45.16, showing that trend strength is elevated.

A short-term resistance area sits near $0.58, according to market analyst CW. 

“$XLM is heading towards the sell wall at $0.58. Below that, there is support from the buy wall,” they said.

Stellar Network Sees Institutional Growth

Franklin Templeton recently tokenized $446 million in U.S. Treasuries on the Stellar network. This reflects continued use of the blockchain platform for real-world asset settlement.

In addition, the Stellar Development Foundation also announced new executive hires. José Fernández da Ponte, who previously led blockchain efforts at PayPal, has joined as President and Chief Growth Officer. Jason Karsh, who held roles at Blockchain.com and Coinbase, is now Chief Marketing Officer.

Stellar’s Protocol 23 is set for a mainnet vote on August 14, 2025. The proposal focuses on updates to core features. Ahead of the vote, interest in XLM has increased, with users and developers watching the outcome closely.

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Cardano (ADA) Bulls Target $1.31 After Surpassing $0.85 Mark

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TL;DR

  • ADA breaks resistance at $0.74 and tests $0.85 as bulls push toward higher price levels.
  • Analysts eye $1.18 and $1.31 targets if ADA closes daily above the $0.85 breakout level.
  • Open Interest on ADA hits $1.65 billion, setting a new record and showing rising trader confidence.

Cardano Holds Gains Near $0.85 After Breakout

Cardano (ADA) traded at $0.852 after rising 7% in 24 hours and 20% over the week. The move followed a breakout from a long downward trend, with buyers now pushing into higher price zones.

Earlier resistance around $0.74 had held the price in check during multiple attempts this year. That level has now been breached. ADA touched nearly $0.78 last week before a brief pullback, but buyers stepped in again, pushing the price above $0.84 heading into the weekend.

Analysts Watch the $0.85 Level for Confirmation

Crypto analyst Ali Martinez said a daily close above $0.85 could open the way toward $1.31. His view is based on earlier market structure and current momentum. ADA has cleared the $0.68 mark, which may now serve as support if prices remain above it.

Marcus Corvinus noted that ADA has exited a long-term descending channel and flagged $0.77 to $0.82 as the next zone to watch. He added that holding above $0.82 could shift attention to $1.18. On the downside, $0.68 and $0.58 are the nearest support zones in case of any pullback.

Open Interest Pushes Higher With Price

Cardano’s recent gains are backed by rising interest in its futures market. Data from CoinGlass shows Open Interest (OI) on ADA has grown by 16% in the last 24 hours, reaching $1.65 billion, surpassing the previous record high of $1.50 billion set on January 18.

ADA open interest
Source: Coinglass

Open Interest reflects capital tied to active trading positions. A steady rise often means traders are committing more capital, which can support ongoing moves. This increase adds weight to the recent price trend.

In fact, with ADA reclaiming the $0.80 range and testing $0.85, traders are focused on whether it can close the day above that level.

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