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Cryptocurrency

If History Repeats, Here’s How High Bitcoin (BTC) Price Can Go Post Halving (Analysis)

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With the fourth halving event scheduled for April this year, speculation about Bitcoin’s future trajectory is rampant.

One notable voice in this conversation is Charles Edwards, the founder of hedge fund Capriole Investments, who has made a striking prediction – if Bitcoin’s post-halving returns mimic those of 2020, the market could be witnessing a staggering $280,000 valuation within the next year.

2020: “Worst Bitcoin Bull Market”

Matching the exceptional performance seen in 2020 could be viewed as an overly optimistic forecast for Bitcoin. However, Edwards dismissed 2020 as an outlier, labeling it as the worst Bitcoin bull market in history.

He further attributed this underwhelming performance to two significant factors: the substantial decline in the mining network, primarily due to China’s crackdown, and the subsequent aggressive tightening cycle of the Federal Reserve.

In contrast, Edwards pointed to a starkly different landscape in 2024. Quantitative easing has resumed, and the Fed, under Chair Powell’s leadership, is anticipated to implement three interest rate cuts this year alone. This dovish stance suggested a weaker dollar, which historically correlates with a stronger Bitcoin.

Moreover, Edwards also drew attention to the recent launch of spot Bitcoin ETFs, likening their impact to a “second halving.”

A $300,000 Bitcoin Price Prediction

The crypto analyst highlighted the growth of the gold market following the introduction of the GLD ETF in 2004, suggesting that Bitcoin, with its smaller market cap, could potentially experience even more substantial gains.

The rapid pace of technological adoption further bolstered Edwards’ bullish outlook. He asserted that Bitcoin’s growth trajectory surpassed even that of the Internet, citing the increasing velocity of market movements in today’s digital age.

So, what’s the bottom line, according to Edwards? He predicted a 500% return over the 18 months following the halving, coupled with an additional 300% appreciation over the next 2-5 years from the ETFs alone. Combining these factors led him to a conservative estimate of a $300,000 Bitcoin price within the next couple of years.

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Cryptocurrency

BTC Rejected Off $64,000 As Crypto Market Suffers $600 Million Of Liquidations

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The price of Bitcoin (BTC) experienced massive volatility on Wednesday, soaring to nearly $64,000 before sinking again to $60,500 within one hour.

Amid the chaos, crypto traders have experienced $638 million in liquidation over the past 24 hours, including $391 million of liquidations in the past 4 hours alone.

  • According to Coinglass, about $55 million of liquidations in the last hour impacted a consortium of little-known altcoins, while $96 million was liquidated on BTC trades directly.
  • Meanwhile, ETH traders suffered $45 million of liquidations, and DOGE traders lost $29 million.
  • In the past 24 hours, a massive 168,988 traders were liquidated. The largest single liquidation occurred on OKX on a BTC-USDT trade for $9.45 million.
  • The price of BTC is $61,400 at writing time, up 21% within the past five days alone.
  • Many credit the asset’s recent surge to the launch of several bitcoin ETFs last month.
  • BlackRock’s Bitcoin ETF – the largest of all newcomers – now holds over $8 billion in BTC, and absorbed a record $520 million of flows on Tuesday.
Bitcoin / USD. Source: TradingView
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Cryptocurrency

BlackRock Bitcoin ETF Smashes Daily Inflow Record, Ranks 2nd In United States

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BlackRock’s Bitcoin (BTC) ETF has cracked a new daily inflow record, helping push Bitcoin’s above $60,000 for the first time since November 2021.

The iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) absorbed another $520 million on Tuesday, bringing the fund’s total flows since launch above $6.5 billion. Furthermore, thanks to Bitcoin’s rising price during that period, the value of the firm’s Bitcoin stash has appreciated to over $8 billion.

BlackRock Breaking Record

By comparison, Fidelity’s Bitcoin ETF now holds $5.6 billion in BTC, but absorbed a much smaller $126 million flow on Tuesday.

Meanwhile, Grayscale – IBIT’s largest competitor – suffered another $125 million of outflows. Though Grayscale still bears a significant lead in total assets at $25 billion, BlackRock’s ETF is slowly gaining ground against the incumbent fund due to its much lower management fee.

According to Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas, BlackRock’s stellar inflow figure made it the number two ETF for inflows in the United States yesterday, only behind BlackRock’s iShares Core S&P 500 ETF (IVV).

“This means a good portion of that massive volume was new buying vs arb/algo,” Balchunas wrote to X on Tuesday.

The analyst also noted that individual trades for IBIT’s ETF surpassed those of both the SPY and QQQ. This suggests that a large component of buyers trading the ETFs are retail-based – an unexpected finding given the ETF’s popularity as an institutional trading ground.

Bitcoin ETFs And Surging Price

The price of Bitcoin has skyrocketed by over 25% in the past five days, now trading at over $63,000 at writing time. Many analysts credit its success to the launch of Bitcoin spot ETFs, which have collectively absorbed over $6.7 billion of flows since going live on January 11.

After 30 days, BlackRock and Fidelity’s Bitcoin funds had already broken records as the two most successful ETF launches in history based on flows. BlackRock also tapped a new daily high for trading volume on Monday, surpassing $1.3 billion and entering into the top 11 ETFs in the country by volume.

Bitcoin now approaches its all-time high of $69,000 USD, though, in some currency denominations, it has already broken its prior records. For instance, one BTC is now worth over 95,000 Australian dollars, compared to $87,000 at its peak in November 2021.

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3 Catalysts That Suggest More Gains for Bitcoin After Price Broke $60K

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Bitcoin surged above $61,000 on Wednesday, marking its highest level since November 2021. The rally seems fueled by significant inflows into US-based spot Bitcoin ETFs.

With bullish momentum building, all eyes are on the leading crypto asset’s trajectory, and data suggest that it might be able to break its previously established all-time high of $69,045.

MVRV Ratio Signals Buying Opportunity

The MVRV Ratio, derived from dividing an asset’s market capitalization by its realized capitalization, serves as a pivotal metric in cryptocurrency trading. When below 1, it indicates most holders are at a loss, signaling a potential buying opportunity.

On the other hand, a rising ratio suggests increased profit-taking, potentially leading to selling pressure and market corrections.

Historically, an MVRV Ratio nearing 4 signaled market tops, though this threshold has decreased in each cycle. According to Intotheblock’s latest observation, the value stands at 2.22, essentially hinting at a bullish market that is not yet excessively overheated.

Bitcoin MVRV. Source: ITB
Bitcoin MVRV. Source: ITB

Subdued Retail Crowd

Despite Bitcoin’s remarkable price movement, current data suggests an absence of retail investors. While there has been a rise in the number of new addresses, Intotheblock said it is likely attributed to active market participants engaging with Ordinals.

However, new addresses have since declined and remain relatively consistent. The same pattern is observed with active addresses. Both Google trends and app store data show no significant surge in retail interest yet.

On-chain volume is gradually increasing, reminiscent of the early phases of the 2021 bull market, but it has not reached the frenzy levels seen during the peak.

This implies that institutional investors might be driving this phase, with attention focused on ETFs as potential accumulators.

Meanwhile, those monitoring altcoins are speculating on whether renewed retail interest will shift Bitcoin’s upward trend towards broader market movements. However, the upcoming halving could change this dynamic and push the crypto asset to a new peak.

Bitcoin Halving: A Major Catalyst

The analysis from ITB suggests that the upcoming Bitcoin halving in April typically triggers a surge in price according to historical patterns. However, in the current cycle, the price rally has occurred earlier than anticipated.

This deviation may imply that investors are aware of the potential impact of the halving and are adjusting their investments accordingly ahead of time. In short, these market players are anticipating and acting upon the expected price movement associated with the halving event well before it actually takes place.

Bitcoin Price History. Source: ITB
Bitcoin Price History. Source: ITB
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