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Is Bitcoin About to Explode to $45K or Plunge Below $40K? (BTC Price Analysis)

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Bitcoin’s price has been consolidating recently, following months of bullish movement. The market is testing a key support level at the moment as things are getting tricky for a potential continuation to the upside.

Technical Analysis

By TradingRage

The Daily Chart

On the daily timeframe, the price has been aggressively rallying since a break above the 200-day moving average back in October. Multiple resistance levels have been broken through, and the market participants are quite optimistic.

However, the bullish momentum has faded recently, as the price failed to get past the $45K mark and dropped back towards the $40K support level.

This level is currently holding the market, preventing a deeper decline. In this case, a continuation toward the $48K level would be likely. With the Relative Strength Index showing values above 50%, the momentum is still in favor of the buyers, and the bullish scenario is still probable.

btc_price_chart_1812231
Source: TradingView

The 4-Hour Chart

The 4-hour chart paints a more clear picture of the recent price action. The price has formed a falling wedge pattern and is yet to break it to either side.

Meanwhile, the $40K support level is pushing the price toward the higher trendline of the pattern. A break above the falling wedge would be considered a classic continuation signal, and the market could rise above the recent high at $45K and potentially reach the $48K resistance level in the coming weeks. On the contrary, a breakdown of the pattern would be disastrous, as it could lead to a plunge toward the $38K support zone.

btc_price_chart_1812232
Source: TradingView

On-Chain Analysis

By Shayan

Bitcoin Fees per Block

The transaction fees associated with each Bitcoin block serve as a critical metric for gauging market dynamics, offering insights into network traffic and user demand. Elevated fees are often indicative of heightened network usage and can, at times, align with peaks in Bitcoin prices. This correlation implies that users are willing to pay higher fees to expedite transactions, pointing to a dynamic and active market.

Examining historical data reveals a pattern where peaks in both transaction fees and prices are succeeded by pullbacks. These retractions can be attributed to various factors such as network congestion, speculative trading activities, investor tendencies to sell, and the influx of Bitcoin miners into the market.

As the next Bitcoin halving approaches, with just 127 days remaining, speculation arises regarding potential retractions within this cycle due to speculative behavior and miner actions. This impending period presents a critical test for the overall health of the market and investor sentiment, providing insights into how these factors influence Bitcoin’s trajectory. With the market heading towards this significant event, meticulous observation and analysis of transaction fees, price movements, and related factors will be paramount for investors and analysts.

btc_tx_fees_block_chart_1812231
Source: CryptoQuant
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Disclaimer: Information found on CryptoPotato is those of writers quoted. It does not represent the opinions of CryptoPotato on whether to buy, sell, or hold any investments. You are advised to conduct your own research before making any investment decisions. Use provided information at your own risk. See Disclaimer for more information.

Cryptocurrency charts by TradingView.

Cryptocurrency

All TRX Holders Turn Profitable as Tron Hits Major 2025 Milestone

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While the crypto market recovered last week, the Tron ecosystem quietly recorded a significant milestone for the year.

As reported by Burakkesmeci, an analyst for the market intelligence platform CryptoQuant, all cohorts of investors holding TRX, the native asset of the Tron network, have seen their positions turn green.

TRX Holders Enter Profit Zone

Burakkesmeci disclosed that TRX investor sentiment turned bullish as the coin recorded 115% gains in a year. The journey to this milestone kicked off on May 5 when TRX rallied to $0.25, bringing all investor cohorts, from long- to short-term participants, into the green territory.

Investors who held TRX for one week, one month, three months (short-term), six months, and one year (medium/long-term) all became profitable. According to the analyst, this development is significant for market sentiment and network dynamics because it shows the level of user confidence in Tron’s future potential.

As of May 15, TRX investors holding the asset for one week were in 10% profit, while those holding for a month were 6% in the green. Three-month-old holders were in 11% profit, while six-month and one-year-old investors had recorded gains of 52% and 115%, respectively. Burakkesmeci insisted that short-term holders being in profit drives strong positive sentiment in the market.

“These investors are more likely to share their success stories, which can encourage new participants to invest in Tron, potentially creating a feedback loop of increasing demand and momentum,” he stated.

At the time of writing on May 16, TRX was worth $0.272 following a significant, but volatile price move over the last seven days.

Tron Attains Higher Reliability and Security

Besides Tron’s latest win in profitability, the network has become more reliable and secure, with block production consistently averaging 99.7% of the expected 28,800 blocks daily. Tron has come a long way from 2020 to 2021, when it witnessed more network volatility and disruptions in block output.

A recent report by CryptoQuant said Tron is now recording a steady upward trend in production efficiency.

“The absence of large swings in block production indicates a maturing network with robust governance and operational performance, reinforcing TRON’s credibility as a high-throughput blockchain platform,” CryptoQuant added.

Meanwhile, Tether (USDT) supply on Tron recently surpassed Ethereum for the first time in crypto history.

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These Altcoins Plunge Hard but Bitcoin (BTC) Maintains $103K (Market Watch)

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Bitcoin’s price slipped below $103,000 earlier today, but the bulls managed to defend that level, and the asset is back well above it now.

However, several altcoins have marked massive losses over the past day, led by another double-digit price plunge from PI.

BTC Stays Calm

Bitcoin started the business week on the right foot as its price shot up from under $104,000 to a multi-month peak of just shy of $106,000. This came as a direct consequence of the trade deal struck by the US and China.

However, the asset couldn’t maintain its run and dropped by roughly five grand in the following hours to a weekly low of under $101,000. Nevertheless, the bulls didn’t allow a breakdown beneath $100,000, and the cryptocurrency began its recovery that pushed it to $105,000 by Thursday.

Another rejection followed, and more volatility ensued on Friday, but overall, bitcoin has been able to remain in a relatively tight range between $102,500 and $104,000. The past 24 hours brought some more minor fluctuations around these levels, and BTC now stands close to the upper boundary.

Its market cap has remained above $2.050 trillion on CG while its dominance over the alts has risen by over 0.5% daily to 60.4%.

BTCUSD. Source: TradingView
BTCUSD. Source: TradingView

PI Keeps Dumping

Most larger-cap alts have turned red in the past 24 hours. ETH has slipped below $2,500 after a 3% daily decline. A similar nosedive is evident from DOGE, while SHIB and LINK have dropped by over 4%.

However, PI leads the pack in terms of the biggest daily losses. Pi Network’s native token has plummeted by 20% and sits below $0.7.

Other larger-cap alts in the red today include PEPE, UNI, ONDO, AAVE, NEAR, APT, and more.

The total crypto market cap has seen over $70 billion disappear in a day and is down to $3.4 trillion on CG.

Cryptocurrency Market Overview. Source: QuantifyCrypto
Cryptocurrency Market Overview. Source: QuantifyCrypto
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Disclaimer: Information found on CryptoPotato is those of writers quoted. It does not represent the opinions of CryptoPotato on whether to buy, sell, or hold any investments. You are advised to conduct your own research before making any investment decisions. Use provided information at your own risk. See Disclaimer for more information.

Cryptocurrency charts by TradingView.

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Cryptocurrency

FTX Creditors to Receive Over $5B Starting May 30

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The FTX Recovery Trust has announced it will begin disbursing more than $5 billion to creditors from May 30.

This payment round marks the second distribution to eligible parties as the firm continues its efforts to reimburse those affected by its collapse.

Repayment Efforts

In a May 15 release, the company’s bankruptcy estate categorized creditors into five “convenience classes” with specified payout rates. Members of creditors Class 5A will receive a 72% distribution, while Class 5B will be paid 54%.

Classes 6A and 6B, comprised of small lenders and Alameda Research trading partners, are each set for 61% distributions. Finally, Class 7 Convenience Claims will receive 120%.

John J. Ray III described the upcoming payments as a major development, stating:

“These first non-convenience class distributions are an important milestone for FTX. The scope and magnitude of the FTX creditor base makes this an unprecedented distribution process.”

He added that the announcement demonstrated the strong results of the team’s recovery and coordination efforts and emphasized that their focus remained on maximizing returns for creditors and addressing unresolved claims.

Eligible creditors are expected to receive their funds through their selected distribution service provider, either Bitgo or Kraken, within one to three business days after May 30. However, customers who onboard with a Distribution Service Provider will forfeit the right to receive cash directly from the bankrupt exchange, with all funds sent through their chosen provider instead.

The FTX Recovery Trust also said that the repayment schedule for upcoming creditor classes will be announced in due course. If all claims are filed, total repayments could reach up to $16.5 billion.

Separately, the FTX bankruptcy estate initiated legal proceedings in April against NFT Stars Limited and Delysium. The lawsuits aim to recover digital assets allegedly withheld from the estate and are part of the company’s efforts to reclaim funds and maximize recoveries following its November 2022 collapse.

Criticism Over Valuation Method

FTX currently has about $11.4 billion allocated for creditor repayments. The first round of reimbursements began on February 18, 2025, directed at creditors with “convenience claims” under $50,000. Approximately $1.2 billion was paid out in that phase.

The second distribution phase will now target those with requests exceeding that amount. These include major investors and institutions that held millions in crypto on the platform.

Despite progress, the repayment model has faced criticism for calculating reimbursements based on crypto values at the time of the bankruptcy filing. This has led to some creditors receiving less than the current market value of their holdings.

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