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Is Bitcoin’s Bull Market Just Getting Started? This Crucial Metric Says So (Details)

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TL;DR

  • Although bitcoin’s price tumbled by over 20% since its January all-time high and is currently nowhere near it, a crucial metric shows that the actual cycle peak is not here yet.
  • In terms of entry prices, though, one analyst cautioned that the current levels might not be optimal.

No Peak Yet?

After hitting an all-time high on January 20 this year at over $109,000, bitcoin’s price started to lose value gradually until the end of the month and then nosedived following the global economic uncertainty prompted by US President Trump’s controversial approach.

The culmination came last week when BTC tumbled below $75,000 for the first time in five months. This meant that the asset had lost nearly $35,000 in less than three months.

This split the community into those who believe the bull market has come to a screeching halt and those who rely on history to be more optimistic, suggesting that such substantial corrections have occurred during all previous cycles. But there are only that—corrections, and BTC will persevere.

Ali Martinez, a crypto analyst with over 135,000 followers on X, brought another key metric that could support the latter. It still relies on historical performance, but it’s not focused on the technical aspects. Instead, it measures the retail activity as BTC tends to peak after a massive influx of such investors.

So far, there hasn’t been a big retail wave. This is evident from the lack of Google searches as well as the missing “retail activity through trading frequency surge.”

Martinez noted that the current cycle resembles the 2021 run when BTC peaked in April, only to break that high at the end of the year.

Don’t Rush to Buy

Although history suggests there might be more gains on the horizon for BTC, Martinez published another chart that suggests investors should maybe be more patient before allocating funds to the largest digital asset.

This is because of the Bitcoin Exchange inflow volume, a metric used to “spot strong entry points.”

This essentially confirms a previous report by Glassnode, which read that the BTC market is now in a “wait-and-see” phase.

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Cryptocurrency

$200K Bitcoin (BTC) This Year? On-Chain Metrics Make a Strong Case

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Bitcoin has entered a technical correction phase after reaching an all-time high of $123,400 on July 14. The crypto asset is down by almost 7% as it currently trades near $114,000. The drop is attributed to macroeconomic pressures such as inflation and tariffs, bearish technical signals, and liquidation events.

Data suggests that Q4 historically benefits Bitcoin, and after a strong July, bulls are hopeful for another breakout.

Bitcoin’s Technical Dip

CryptoQuant views the decline as primarily technical and said that the market is still in a broader price discovery cycle. This cycle, which reflects market attempts to determine Bitcoin’s fair value through supply and demand, could push the price toward the $200,000 level by the end of Q4 2025.

BTC has traditionally seen strong performance in Q4, and current market conditions could help continue that seasonal pattern. Binance’s on-chain data reveals large stablecoin reserves. This points to a considerable amount of sidelined capital that could soon flow back into the market, potentially boosting Bitcoin and prominent altcoins like BNB. This, in turn, may set the stage for a potential altseason.

The current reflexive relationship between Bitcoin and emerging treasury investors could aid its price discovery in Q4. But whether altcoins will follow suit remains uncertain amid growing market crowding. Nonetheless, institutional interest may further boost Bitcoin’s upward trajectory in the coming months.

Adding to this narrative, Glassnode noted that Bitcoin’s $109K-$116K range is steadily filling during price dips, which reflects continued investor interest. The consistent staircase-like pattern suggests steady accumulation. Additionally, minimal selling between $118K-$120K means that investors in this range are largely holding, which indicates confidence in long-term price appreciation.

Big Bets On Year-End Rally

Several market watchers remain optimistic about a strong year-end comeback despite the current pullback. TeraHash, for one, recently predicted a price range of $130K-$150K by December, citing ETF inflows, potential Fed rate cuts, and upcoming regulatory clarity from the SEC and MiCA framework. Important catalysts include continued ETF inflows, Fed policy easing in September, and full implementation of Europe’s MiCA framework.

Meanwhile, on-chain data shows surging mining difficulty and geographic expansion, while Hashrate-as-a-Service models attract institutions seeking exposure with less risk.

Bullish projections also came from Fundstrat’s Tom Lee and American venture capital investor Tim Draper, who forecast $250K by year-end. Even more aggressive predictions from Charles Schwab and Mike Novogratz place Bitcoin at $1 million by the end of 2025.

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Cryptocurrency

Important Binance Announcement: Here’s Why Some Services Will be Suspended This Week

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TL;DR

  • Binance will halt USDC withdrawals on certain networks for approximately two hours.
  • Over the past several days, the exchange introduced new features, including Discount Buy and Binance Wallet (Web).

Attention, Binance Users

The world’s largest crypto exchange will perform wallet maintenance for USDC withdrawals via Ethereum (ETH), Polygon (POL), Arbitrum (ARB), Base (BASE), and Optimism (OP) networks on August 6. To support the process, USDC withdrawals through the networks above will be halted on that day. The maintenance is expected to be concluded in two hours, and after that, all services will be resumed

Binance assured that the trading of tokens on the depicted networks will not be impacted and promised to handle all technical requirements involved for the users. It also said there will be no further announcements on the matter.

The company regularly conducts such operations to enhance the overall user experience and ensure the seamless operation of its services. Last week, it paused all deposits and withdrawals due to a live upgrade on its wallet network infrastructure.

Over the past several months, it briefly suspended services on the TRON, Cardano, and other networks because of similar efforts. 

Binance’s Latest Features

The company frequently introduces new products to address ongoing market trends and provide additional services to its users. Just a few days ago, it unveiled Discount Buya feature which allows clients to make advanced crypto purchases in markets with lower volatility. 

Included in Binance’s Earn portfolio, this product lets users lock in future buys at pre-set prices under market value, or collect a fixed APR if the trade isn’t carried out. 

“Discount Buy is well-suited for users who anticipate limited price fluctuations and want to accumulate crypto at a discount without needing to time the market or monitor prices closely. It offers flexibility across investment scenarios, giving users more choices and opportunities in how they want to participate in the crypto market,” said Jeff Li, VP of Product at Binance.

Earlier this week, the exchange introduced Binance Wallet (Web), which allows users to “trade smart, fast, and securely, all without leaving their desktops.” A key feature of the offering is Secure Auto Sign (SAS) – a new signing method that enables customers to approve transactions once and trade seamlessly for up to seven days, without repeated confirmations. 

The product is specifically designed for those who want to discover new meme coins, follow on-chain activities in real time, explore transaction history and token balances in one place, and access Alpha tokens.

Binance Wallet (Web) was introduced to address desktop-specific needs. It offers more screen space, modular layouts, and faster multitasking for on-chain users who trade actively or monitor multiple signals.

While the mobile app excels in portability, Binance Wallet (Web) enables plugin-free, browser-native trading with floating widgets and real-time data panels, all on a single page. It is ideal for meme coin discovery, wallet tracking, and strategy execution without tab switching,” the disclosure reads.

Currently, the feature supports BNB Smart Chain and Solana. Clients of the exchange can instantly connect their account to Binance Wallet (Web) via QR code, with no additional setup required.

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ETH Open Interest Sees Dramatic Rise – 3.5x Higher Than 2021 Bull Run Levels

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Ethereum’s Open Interest (OI) on Binance has surged to a record $8.7 billion, which indicates a significant increase in speculative positioning on the platform.

This represents a dramatic rise compared to the 2021 bull market, when ETH traded at similar price levels but OI on Binance peaked at only $2.5 billion.

Ethereum’s Market Is Heating Up

In its latest analysis, CryptoQuant revealed that the current figure, nearly 3.5 times higher, highlighted the growing appetite for leveraged exposure in Ethereum’s market. Despite this surge in OI, funding rates, interestingly, remain neutral, indicating that traders are not yet heavily biased toward long or short positions.

The lack of directional conviction hints at room for further buildup in positions without triggering immediate liquidation pressures. The increase in OI, paired with neutral funding, paints a picture of cautious but growing speculative interest.

With the broader crypto market trending upward, these conditions may support a steady rally in the leading altcoin’s price, potentially accompanied by increased volatility.

CryptoQuant said that the current setup is a constructive signal, and added that Ethereum has a high chance of continuing its bullish trajectory. The quiet accumulation of leveraged positions on Binance, absent extreme sentiment, may be laying the groundwork for the next phase of price expansion. As traders position themselves, Ethereum could be primed for a sharper move in the near term.

Ethereum Defies Market Outflows

Despite the broader market turbulence last week, Ethereum continued to attract investor interest and secured its 15th straight week of inflows with $133 million. While digital asset investment products saw net outflows of $223 million, the first in 15 weeks, Ethereum stood out for maintaining positive momentum.

The week began with a strong $883 million in inflows but reversed sharply after hawkish signals from the FOMC and strong US economic data. Bitcoin bore the brunt of the risk-off sentiment and lost $404 million.

Still, CoinShares said that the recent correction likely reflects profit-taking, not fading confidence, especially as Ethereum and select altcoins like XRP and Solana remained resilient.

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