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Is BTC in Danger of Crashing Below $40K in a Vicious Correction? (BTC Price Analysis)

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After an extended consolidation phase around the crucial $45K resistance region, Bitcoin’s price is exhibiting slight fluctuations, possibly forming a double-top pattern. The emergence of this pattern could signal a notable downturn in the short term.

Technical Analysis

By Shayan

The Daily Chart

A detailed examination of the daily chart reveals that Bitcoin’s consolidation has prolonged near the critical $45K resistance zone. This significant price range aligns with the upper boundary of a multi-month ascending channel, resulting in a period of price stabilization and sideways movement. However, the failure to reclaim the prior significant swing high at $44.6K suggests the presence of supply near this crucial threshold.

As a potential development, the price seems to form a double-top pattern. A break below the neckline of this pattern could indicate a possible downturn in the market, targeting the decisive support range of around $38K. Nevertheless, the market will likely maintain the current consolidation pattern in the short term, fluctuating from $38K to $45K.

btc_price_chart_2412231
Source: TradingView

The 4-Hour Chart

An in-depth analysis of the 4-hour chart illustrates Bitcoin’s price experiencing a sideways movement, consolidating within a crucial range between the 0.5 Fibonacci level at $40.5K and the resistance region of $45K. This reflects an overall balance between buyers and sellers.

Amid this consolidation, the price has been tracing a sideways wedge pattern, moving between its upper and lower thresholds. Notably, the lower trendline of this wedge aligns with a key support level represented by the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement level, offering substantial support.

Currently, the price is attempting to surpass the upper boundary of the wedge. This breakout could pave the way for a renewed bullish movement if successful. However, considering the current market state and sentiment, it is likely that the price will extend its consolidation stage, continuing to fluctuate between the significant support at $40K and the crucial resistance at $45K.

btc_price_chart_2412232
Source: TradingView

On-chain Analysis

By Shayan

This chart depicts the mean amount of coins per transaction sent to exchanges, with a 30-day moving average applied alongside Bitcoin’s price. Elevated values of this metric indicate that investors are transmitting a higher amount of coins per transaction, suggesting increased selling pressure that may lead to a future price drop.

Historically, a surge in this metric has been correlated with a subsequent price cascade attributed to significant selling pressure from larger market participants. Recently, the indicator has experienced an upswing, signifying that participants are sending larger amounts of BTC to exchanges, potentially for distribution purposes.

While current distribution activities may be attributed to profit realization, sustained surges in this metric to concerning levels could signal substantial selling pressure from major market players, potentially resulting in a decline in prices.

btc_exchange_inflow_chart_2412231
Source: CryptoQuant
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Disclaimer: Information found on CryptoPotato is those of writers quoted. It does not represent the opinions of CryptoPotato on whether to buy, sell, or hold any investments. You are advised to conduct your own research before making any investment decisions. Use provided information at your own risk. See Disclaimer for more information.

Cryptocurrency charts by TradingView.

Cryptocurrency

All TRX Holders Turn Profitable as Tron Hits Major 2025 Milestone

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While the crypto market recovered last week, the Tron ecosystem quietly recorded a significant milestone for the year.

As reported by Burakkesmeci, an analyst for the market intelligence platform CryptoQuant, all cohorts of investors holding TRX, the native asset of the Tron network, have seen their positions turn green.

TRX Holders Enter Profit Zone

Burakkesmeci disclosed that TRX investor sentiment turned bullish as the coin recorded 115% gains in a year. The journey to this milestone kicked off on May 5 when TRX rallied to $0.25, bringing all investor cohorts, from long- to short-term participants, into the green territory.

Investors who held TRX for one week, one month, three months (short-term), six months, and one year (medium/long-term) all became profitable. According to the analyst, this development is significant for market sentiment and network dynamics because it shows the level of user confidence in Tron’s future potential.

As of May 15, TRX investors holding the asset for one week were in 10% profit, while those holding for a month were 6% in the green. Three-month-old holders were in 11% profit, while six-month and one-year-old investors had recorded gains of 52% and 115%, respectively. Burakkesmeci insisted that short-term holders being in profit drives strong positive sentiment in the market.

“These investors are more likely to share their success stories, which can encourage new participants to invest in Tron, potentially creating a feedback loop of increasing demand and momentum,” he stated.

At the time of writing on May 16, TRX was worth $0.272 following a significant, but volatile price move over the last seven days.

Tron Attains Higher Reliability and Security

Besides Tron’s latest win in profitability, the network has become more reliable and secure, with block production consistently averaging 99.7% of the expected 28,800 blocks daily. Tron has come a long way from 2020 to 2021, when it witnessed more network volatility and disruptions in block output.

A recent report by CryptoQuant said Tron is now recording a steady upward trend in production efficiency.

“The absence of large swings in block production indicates a maturing network with robust governance and operational performance, reinforcing TRON’s credibility as a high-throughput blockchain platform,” CryptoQuant added.

Meanwhile, Tether (USDT) supply on Tron recently surpassed Ethereum for the first time in crypto history.

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Cryptocurrency

These Altcoins Plunge Hard but Bitcoin (BTC) Maintains $103K (Market Watch)

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Bitcoin’s price slipped below $103,000 earlier today, but the bulls managed to defend that level, and the asset is back well above it now.

However, several altcoins have marked massive losses over the past day, led by another double-digit price plunge from PI.

BTC Stays Calm

Bitcoin started the business week on the right foot as its price shot up from under $104,000 to a multi-month peak of just shy of $106,000. This came as a direct consequence of the trade deal struck by the US and China.

However, the asset couldn’t maintain its run and dropped by roughly five grand in the following hours to a weekly low of under $101,000. Nevertheless, the bulls didn’t allow a breakdown beneath $100,000, and the cryptocurrency began its recovery that pushed it to $105,000 by Thursday.

Another rejection followed, and more volatility ensued on Friday, but overall, bitcoin has been able to remain in a relatively tight range between $102,500 and $104,000. The past 24 hours brought some more minor fluctuations around these levels, and BTC now stands close to the upper boundary.

Its market cap has remained above $2.050 trillion on CG while its dominance over the alts has risen by over 0.5% daily to 60.4%.

BTCUSD. Source: TradingView
BTCUSD. Source: TradingView

PI Keeps Dumping

Most larger-cap alts have turned red in the past 24 hours. ETH has slipped below $2,500 after a 3% daily decline. A similar nosedive is evident from DOGE, while SHIB and LINK have dropped by over 4%.

However, PI leads the pack in terms of the biggest daily losses. Pi Network’s native token has plummeted by 20% and sits below $0.7.

Other larger-cap alts in the red today include PEPE, UNI, ONDO, AAVE, NEAR, APT, and more.

The total crypto market cap has seen over $70 billion disappear in a day and is down to $3.4 trillion on CG.

Cryptocurrency Market Overview. Source: QuantifyCrypto
Cryptocurrency Market Overview. Source: QuantifyCrypto
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Disclaimer: Information found on CryptoPotato is those of writers quoted. It does not represent the opinions of CryptoPotato on whether to buy, sell, or hold any investments. You are advised to conduct your own research before making any investment decisions. Use provided information at your own risk. See Disclaimer for more information.

Cryptocurrency charts by TradingView.

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Cryptocurrency

FTX Creditors to Receive Over $5B Starting May 30

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The FTX Recovery Trust has announced it will begin disbursing more than $5 billion to creditors from May 30.

This payment round marks the second distribution to eligible parties as the firm continues its efforts to reimburse those affected by its collapse.

Repayment Efforts

In a May 15 release, the company’s bankruptcy estate categorized creditors into five “convenience classes” with specified payout rates. Members of creditors Class 5A will receive a 72% distribution, while Class 5B will be paid 54%.

Classes 6A and 6B, comprised of small lenders and Alameda Research trading partners, are each set for 61% distributions. Finally, Class 7 Convenience Claims will receive 120%.

John J. Ray III described the upcoming payments as a major development, stating:

“These first non-convenience class distributions are an important milestone for FTX. The scope and magnitude of the FTX creditor base makes this an unprecedented distribution process.”

He added that the announcement demonstrated the strong results of the team’s recovery and coordination efforts and emphasized that their focus remained on maximizing returns for creditors and addressing unresolved claims.

Eligible creditors are expected to receive their funds through their selected distribution service provider, either Bitgo or Kraken, within one to three business days after May 30. However, customers who onboard with a Distribution Service Provider will forfeit the right to receive cash directly from the bankrupt exchange, with all funds sent through their chosen provider instead.

The FTX Recovery Trust also said that the repayment schedule for upcoming creditor classes will be announced in due course. If all claims are filed, total repayments could reach up to $16.5 billion.

Separately, the FTX bankruptcy estate initiated legal proceedings in April against NFT Stars Limited and Delysium. The lawsuits aim to recover digital assets allegedly withheld from the estate and are part of the company’s efforts to reclaim funds and maximize recoveries following its November 2022 collapse.

Criticism Over Valuation Method

FTX currently has about $11.4 billion allocated for creditor repayments. The first round of reimbursements began on February 18, 2025, directed at creditors with “convenience claims” under $50,000. Approximately $1.2 billion was paid out in that phase.

The second distribution phase will now target those with requests exceeding that amount. These include major investors and institutions that held millions in crypto on the platform.

Despite progress, the repayment model has faced criticism for calculating reimbursements based on crypto values at the time of the bankruptcy filing. This has led to some creditors receiving less than the current market value of their holdings.

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