Bitcoin had a solid Friday, at least at first, as it pumped above $106,000 before the bears resumed control of the market and pushed it south by over four grand.

Most altcoins are quite sluggish on a daily scale, with SOL, ADA, XRP, and SUI in the red, while PEPE and DOT have charted some gains.

BTC to $102K

The largest cryptocurrency started the business week on the wrong foot as the AI mania that started in China called DeepSeek sent the entire market into a severe correction. On Monday morning, the asset fell by over $7,000 and dropped below $98,000 for the first time in almost two weeks.

After an unsuccessful recovery attempt later that day, the bulls finally stepped up on Tuesday and pushed BTC back into six-digit price territory. The markets calmed a bit on Wednesday in anticipation of the first yearly FOMC meeting, but once that concluded that it became known, as expected, that the Fed won’t change the interest rates, BTC started to lose value.

Within less than an hour, the asset dropped from $103,000 to $101,500. However, it bounced off and surged to $106,500 on Thursday. It remained on that solid ground on Friday morning as well, with a daily peak of $106,000.

Nevertheless, it slumped hard in the evening to $101,300 (on Bitstamp). Although it has recovered some ground since then, it’s still more than 2% down on the day and struggles beneath $102,000.

Its market capitalization has slipped below $2.020 trillion, while its dominance over the alts is at 55.6%.

SOL Slips Further

SOL was among the best performers last week due to the TRUMP token mania, but the tides have turned lately. Solana’s coin is down by 8% on a weekly scale, with a price tag of under $230.

On a daily scale, most other larger-cap alts, such as XRP, ADA, BNB, DOGE, TRX, and AVAX, have also posted some declines. ETH, LINK, and TON are with minor gains, while PEPE and DOT have jumped by 3-4%.

The total crypto market cap has seen just over $80 billion gone in a day and is down to $3.630 trillion on CG.

TL;DR

• The SEC doubled down on its appeal against the 2023 ruling favoring Ripple, while the non-profit organization Better Markets sided with the regulator, arguing that XRP is a security.
• With pro-crypto Mark Uyeda replacing Gary Gensler at the SEC, analysts speculate on potential outcomes that could favor Ripple.

The Tussle Goes on

While the lawsuit between Ripple and the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) started in 2020, its final resolution remains to be seen. The past few years were quite eventful, with numerous developments and partial court wins that seemingly tipped the scales in favor of the company.

The first month of the new year also offered some key updates. In mid-January, the securities regulator officially filed its first opening brief as part of its appeal against a court decision concerning the XRP sold on exchanges years ago. It also insisted (once again) that Ripple’s native token should be classified as a security. A week later, Ripple requested a due date of April 16, 2025, for its brief. 

The SEC’s appeal concerns Judge Torres’ ruling from August 2023 when she found that the firm’s programmatic sales of XRP to retail clients through centralized exchanges did not breach the rules. 

And while the crypto industry has largely sided with Ripple in the lawsuit, some financial entities have voiced support for the Commission. On January 22, the non-profit organization Better Markets categorized XRP as a security.

“The XRP tokens sold by Ripple Labs, Inc. (“Ripple”) are investment contract securities regardless of whether investors acquired them directly from Ripple or indirectly on secondary trading platforms.

And they are investment contracts regardless of the purchasers’ level of sophistication. In all cases, investors were led to expect profits from the efforts of others, thus satisfying the third prong of the Howey test for investment contracts,” the brief reads. 

Gensler’s Departure

An important event that may impact the Ripple v. SEC case is Gary Gensler’s resignation as a Chairman of the watchdog. He stepped down on January 20 (the day of Donald Trump’s inauguration) and was replaced by the pro-crypto Mark Uyeda. 

Gensler was considered a huge enemy of the crypto sector, and the XRP army interpreted the shifts in the SEC’s leadership as something that could lead to a potentially favorable resolution for Ripple. 

One person who presented three possible outcome scenarios following the changes is the American attorney John Deaton. First, he assumed that the SEC might stand by its appeal, thus prolonging the battle indefinitely.

Second, he suggested that the regulator could dismiss the plea and insist that Ripple pay the previously ruled penalty of $125 million. Last summer, Judge Torres ordered the company to settle the amount due to violating certain rules. Some of the company’s execs were more than happy to abide by the rules, considering that the fine represented just a fraction of the $2 billion the SEC initially asked for. 

Deaton concluded that the third (most unlikely) scenario includes dismissing the appeal and scrapping the multi-million penalty. 

TL:DR;

• XRP became one of the top performers of 2024, and the start of 2025 was also quite promising as it came just 1% away from its all-time high of $3.4.
• It has retraced since then, and the question now is whether it will be able to go into uncharted territory this year. Here’s DeepSeek’s answer.

XRP to New ATH Finally?

The daily chart above shows that XRP was stuck below $1 for years, and it was predominantly trading within a tight range between $0.35 and $0.6. It stood close to the latter as the US elections took place, but once it became known that Donald Trump will return to the White House, Ripple’s cross-border token exploded in value.

More positive news for the company behind it came from Gary Gensler’s departure announcement from the SEC, and this sent XRP further north. By the year’s end, the token had neared $3 and broke above it in January. Its peak came in the middle of the month, at just under $3.4, which is the 2018 ATH, according to CoinGecko.

Since then, XRP has been unable to push further and is even close to breaking below $3. However, there are more positive speculation in the US about its future, including a possible resolution of the SEC lawsuit as well as its introduction into strategic crypto reserve in the country.

DeepSeek, which made the headlines earlier this week by possibly becoming a cheaper version of ChatGPT, outlined the lawsuit against the US securities regulator as the most important factor behind another XRP rally.

“The ongoing lawsuit between Ripple Labs and the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has been a significant overhang on XRP’s price. A favorable outcome for Ripple could lead to a surge in XRP’s price as it would remove a major uncertainty.”

Other Factors

DeepSeek also mentioned the overall regulatory environment not only in the US but across the globe. Positive news on that front could “boost investors’ confidence,” especially those who tend to stay away from the uncertainty regarding XRP’s status in the States.

This could also enhance the XRP adoption rates, as well as lead to more strategic partnerships for the company behind it. The AI chatbot further indicated that the overall market conditions, meaning mostly BTC’s price movements, have to remain as bullish as they were in the past few months or even go beyond for XRP to resume its rally.

Lastly, DeepSeek said XRP could benefit a lot from an altcoin season. It’s currently the second-largest alt and, given ETH’s underperformance lately, could be among the leaders in terms of further gains against the dollar and BTC. However, there have been many industry experts who doubted the existence of an altseason under the current market conditions.

In conclusion, the ChatGPT alternative said it’s quite probable that XRP can indeed reach a new all-time high this year, but it needs the alignment of at least a few of the aforementioned factors.