Ripple recently faced rejection at the 100-day MA of $2.5, leading to a substantial decline.

However, the price is now approaching a confluence of key support zones, increasing the likelihood of consolidation in the mid-term.

XRP Analysis

By Shayan

The Daily Chart

XRP recently encountered heightened selling pressure at the critical 100-day moving average ($2.5), leading to a rejection and subsequent price retracement. However, the asset has now reached a significant support zone, which includes:

• The 0.5 Fibonacci retracement level ($1.9)
• The 200-day moving average ($1.7)
• The expanding wedge’s lower boundary

This confluence of key support levels suggests strong demand in this price range, likely preventing further downward movement. Given these conditions, XRP is expected to approach this support range and enter a consolidation phase in the mid-term.

The 4-Hour Chart

On the lower timeframe, Ripple’s recent upward trend faced strong resistance, highlighting weak bullish momentum and a lack of buying pressure. This led to a notable bearish decline, pushing the asset toward the descending wedge’s lower boundary at $1.9, a key level that has repeatedly supported price action.

If XRP fails to hold above this level, further declines may follow. However, given the broader market conditions, the price is expected to stabilize and consolidate around this support range before its next major move.

The dynamics of the crypto industry have changed over the last year, and this has affected several assets, including the top projects. Evaluating the market capitalization evolution of top cryptocurrencies since November 2024 shows that some assets have been seeing steady positive growth while others have mostly struggled.

The market analytics platform CryptoQuant selected the top five cryptocurrencies, including Bitcoin (BTC), Ether (ETH), XRP (XRP), Binance Coin (BNB), and Solana (SOL). The firm excluded Tether (USDT) from the group because, as a stablecoin, its market cap is affected by different dynamics.

Market Cap Evolution for Top Assets

According to CryptoQuant’s analysis, BNB and XRP have witnessed the most notable growth in market capitalization. Recently, BNB overtook SOL in terms of market cap, returning to the top five cryptocurrencies. At the time this occurred, their market caps were $92 billion and $74 billion, respectively; however, by press time, they had fallen to $86 billion and $64 billion.

Solana’s market cap significantly increased in late 2024 due to the growth of its meme coin ecosystem. However, with the momentum and spotlight shifting towards BNB Chain, BNB has recovered and reclaimed its position as the fifth-largest asset by market cap.

On the other hand, XRP has been on the rise since November 2024, when Donald Trump won the United States presidential election. Optimism about the possible outcome of Trump’s crypto-friendly administration drove the asset’s market cap from $30 billion in early November to $141 billion in March. The latest market drawdown caused the figure to drop to $124 billion by press time.

As for ETH, the asset’s underperformance has caused its market cap to plummet by 50% to roughly $240 billion earlier this month. At writing time, the figure had dropped further to $226 billion.

While ETH struggles, BTC has been winning. The market cap of the number one cryptocurrency has grown from $1.36 trillion in early November to $2.14 trillion in January. In the last eight weeks, macroeconomic uncertainty has dragged BTC down, pulling its market cap back to the $1.66 trillion level.

Price Growth and Circulating Supply

CryptoQuant also evaluated the performance of the top cryptocurrencies in terms of year-over-year (YoY) price growth. The analysis revealed that BTC, BNB, and XRP have grown 25%, 8%, and 280% YoY, while ETH and SOL have fallen 43% and 25%, respectively.

Meanwhile, in terms of circulating supply, some coins have witnessed more growth than others in the past year. SOL has increased from 430 million to 511 million since January 2024, XRP has risen from 54 billion to 58 billion, while BNB has benefited from deflationary dynamics, decreasing over the same period from 154 million to 145 million.

Coinbase is the leading crypto exchange in the US by daily trading volume and is publicly traded on Wall Street.

But far out in Silicon Valley, Kraken is making waves.

Kraken Is a Secure US Crypto Exchange

California State University philosophy major Jesse Powell founded Kraken in 2011. After consulting for Mt. Gox, he decided the new Bitcoin sector would need a more secure solution.

Mt. Gox famously crashed and burned after a 2014 hack stole 650,000 BTC. Today, the value of the stolen bitcoin has grown to $56 billion.

But under the leadership of Powell, who stepped down as CEO a few years ago, Kraken developed a reputation for being a secure platform to trade cryptocurrencies and leave them in third-party custody.

“The original ideal was to get Bitcoin to the world, and we’ve achieved a lot of that, opening access to people who have been unbanked by the formal financial system,” Powell said recently.

Coinbase Is Popular With Investors

Founded in 2012 by Brian Armstrong, a former Airbnb engineer, Coinbase leapfrogged Kraken. Today, it is the most popular crypto exchange in the US, and its stock is publicly traded on the Nasdaq.

Cathie Wood’s ARK Invest swiped $9.3 million worth of Coinbase stocks at a discount when markets flipped this Feb. Just like the tech-focused hedge fund did last August when markets wigged out. And, in June 2023.

So, Coinbase has been a popular favorite among blockchain sector investors for some time. These recent Kraken news updates, however, may be giving its competitors at Coinbase a run for their money.

1. Kraken to IPO in Q1 2026

The little purple monster is reportedly planning to go public with an IPO in quarter one of 2026. That’s according to a recent Bloomberg report.

“We recently disclosed 2024 financial highlights to be more transparent about our business, which is something we started by being first to publish proof of reserves, and we’re going to continue to prioritize going forward. We’ll pursue public markets as it makes sense for our clients, our partners and shareholders.”

After the report set off a media buzz among crypto news outlets, Kraken co-CEO Arjun Sethi tried to calm the rumors, clarifying to Axios that there isn’t a date set:

“I think the way we think about it is that, if it’s in service to our clients to going public, building that trust as a currency, then we’ll think about doing it. So we’ll always be ready for it, but it may not be that we’ll have it on a specific date.”

But, he did note that, “the overall regulatory environment, worldwide, not just in the United States, has become a lot more favorable.”

The jump to regulated public markets has been brewing for years now. Back in 2021, Powell said the crypto exchange would be more apt to debut via IPO than a direct listing.

Because direct listings issue no new shares and raise no new capital, an IPO could be a way for Kraken to swell the value of the equity on its books.

An eventual Kraken IPO would be momentous for the blockchain sector. Crypto insights firm CoinGecko noted in February that Coinbase remains the only publicly traded crypto exchange.

2. Kraken Explores $1B Debt Note With JPMorgan

Meanwhile, Kraken’s finances are looking solid for an IPO stock market debut.

The company is exploring a $1 billion corporate debt package with Goldman Sachs and JP Morgan. Yes, that JP Morgan, the US banking giant whose CEO just 15 months ago said only criminals have a use for Bitcoin. That’s a potentially big change in outlook from the private banking sector.

Anonymous sources with knowledge of the proceeding told Bloomberg in late March that both giants had begun conversations with other banks and lenders to put together the massive loan a year or so before Kraken’s anticipated IPO.

According to the report, the exchange has over 10 million users in 190 different countries, and it serves $207 billion in trading volume quarterly.

If Kraken’s business is anything like Coinbase’s, it can count on future cash flows to float such a hefty loan. This February, Coinbase reported last year’s Q4 revenue of $2.3 billion.

Some 60% of its quarterly revenue came from small fees to execute trades.

3. Futures Platform NinjaTrader Acquisition

Today, I’m excited to announce @krakenfx‘s agreement to acquire @NinjaTrader for $1.5 billion. This is about much more than adding another product—it’s a significant step toward our vision of building the most powerful, global platform for the future of finance.@realDonaldTrump…

— Arjun Sethi (@arjunsethi) March 20, 2025

Kraken makes a giant quarterly haul of fees for its services, too.

But it’s hoping to add to its cash rake with a $1.5 billion purchase of NinjaTrader announced on Mar. 20. In a press release, Kraken called the crypto futures contract brokerage the leading US retail futures trading platform.

The unicorn-sized acquisition captures Ninja Trader’s CFTC-registered Futures Commission Merchant licenses, which allow Kraken to broker crypto futures and derivatives contracts in the US.

Sethi explained the move fits into Kraken’s ambitions to build a crypto everything app: “This transaction is the first step in our vision of an institutional-grade trading platform where any asset can be traded, anytime.”

Coinbase first offered retail crypto futures trading products to customers with Coinbase Advanced accounts in Nov. 2023.

4. SEC Agrees to Dismiss Kraken Lawsuit

At the beginning of March, markets added Kraken to a spate of dropped lawsuits at the fearsome US Securities and Exchange Commission.

An update on Kraken’s website read:

“The SEC staff has agreed in principle to dismiss its lawsuit against Kraken with prejudice, with no admission of wrongdoing, no penalties paid and no changes to our business.”

The update noted that the SEC’s previous policy of enforcement by hostility and haphazard lawsuits “undermined a nascent industry that repeatedly urged clear rules of the road.”

Once implacable in its opposition to cryptocurrency companies, the SEC has decidedly flipped to a friendly policy under the new Trump Administration. That’s been great news for the industry and no small factor in the euphoric crypto market rally from last November through January.

“This dismissal lifts that cloud of uncertainty,” Kraken said. “It reaffirms that businesses like Kraken, which prioritize compliance and consumer protection, should not be subject to arbitrary legal battles.”

5. Kraken Relaunches Crypto Staking

Beep, beep: By daily trading volume, Kraken is playing the little Nash Rambler to Coinbase’s Cadillac.

Coinbase may have an order of magnitude more daily active users and weekly visits than Kraken in March, but the latter logs daily trading volume a little over a third of its younger competitor. That’s according to the most recent crypto spot exchange data from CoinMarketCap.

Many are there to trade altcoins in the expectation of turning profits by arbitraging inefficiencies in these novel Internet currency markets.

After Kraken relaunched crypto staking in Q1 this year, its users can also stake their coins, which use a proof-of-stake mechanism to lock in value and earn staking fees from their network.

It’s a potentially very lucrative business for Kraken to operate. For comparison, in March, Coinbase held nearly 12% of all staked ETH on Ethereum’s network.