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Ripple v. SEC Lawsuit Updates, BTC Price Volatility Ahead of US Election, and More: Bits Recap Nov 4

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TL;DR

  • Ripple-SEC lawsuit continues, with the next key filing due by January 2025.
  • Bitcoin’s price recently surged to nearly $73,600 before dropping to around $67,400, potentially influenced by political factors.
  • Ethereum plunged from $2,700 to $2,400, with analysts watching key support levels.

The Prolonged Lawsuit

The legal battle between Ripple and the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) remains ongoing approximately four years after its start. It all began in 2020 when the agency accused the company of illegally raising more than $1.3 billion in an unregistered securities offering by selling XRP.

Last year, the case reached a pivotal moment after Federal Judge Analisa Torres ruled that the firm’s XRP sales to retail investors on crypto exchanges did not violate US securities laws. The regulator officially appealed the decision a month ago, triggering a fresh doze of uncertainty. The action means that the lawsuit entered a new phase comprised of filings and a briefing process, with its final resolution most likely delayed for another few years.

It is worth mentioning that Ripple responded to the SEC with a cross-appeal, outlining some fundamental points for the magistrates to consider. The first question is whether an “investment contract” under the 1933 Securities Act requires a formal agreement, post-sale duties, and buyer profit rights. This could potentially redefine the interpretation of digital asset transactions.

The second point disputes the lower court’s ruling that the company’s XRP transfers meet the SEC v. W.J. Howey Co. case criteria, which established the Howey Test to determine what qualifies as an investment contract. Ripple claims that its transactions did not resemble an investment of money in a common enterprise, with profits dependent entirely on the firm’s efforts.

Third, the company focused on “fair notice” (a term referring to the legal principle that a person or entity must be given clear and adequate details about the laws or regulations that apply to their actions). It insists that it provided potential XRP buyers with sufficient information about the uncertainty related to cryptocurrencies

Lastly, Ripple questioned the clarity of the injunction from Judge Torres (who ordered the company to pay a $125 million fine for violating certain securities laws), claiming it only instructs the company to follow the law without enough specifications.

Most recently, James K. Filan (a US attorney who closely observes the legal tussle) said the Second Circuit Court of Appeals has ordered that the Commission’s brief must be filed on or before January 15, 2025. Failure to act by the deadline may result in dismissal of the appeal. 

How’s BTC Doing?

The primary digital asset has been one of the hottest topics in the crypto space due to its rapid price swings in the past week. Its valuation soared from $68,000 (per CoinGecko’s data) on October 28 to $73,600 (almost a new all-time high) 24 hours later.

It consolidated at around $72K in the next two days, plunging sharply toward the end of the month. The bulls attempted to push the price on November 1, but the rally was short-lived, and BTC kept losing ground. It dropped under $68,000 on November 3, currently worth approximately $68,500.

BTC Price
BTC Price, Source: CoinGecko

One factor potentially contributing to the asset’s poor performance recently is Donald Trump’s declining odds of winning the US presidential elections. Last week, the Republican had a massive lead on Polymarket: 66.9% versus 33.1% for his opponent, Kamala Harris. The picture looks much different now, with Trump’s figure standing at 57.5%, while the Democratic candidate follows with 42.6%.

According to many industry participants, the former president is the better choice for the digital asset market, considering his pro-crypto stance indicated throughout his campaign. Recall that Trump promised to make America a leader in bitcoin mining and hinted at establishing a strategic BTC reserve. 

We have yet to see whether the Republican can enter the White House as a winner again and if he will stand by his commitment.

What About ETH?

The second-largest cryptocurrency spiked above $2,700 on October 30. Like BTC, though, it headed south and is currently hovering at around $2,460. 

ETH Price
ETH Price, Source: CoinGecko

According to some analysts, ETH remains on a bullish path as long as it trades above certain resistance zones. The X user Ali Martinez believes it can skyrocket to a new ATH of $6,000 if it doesn’t plunge below $2,400. ETH dropped to as low as $2,417 on November 3, still holding the depicted level. 

Poseidon, on the other hand, promised to cash out their holdings if Ethereum’s price tumbled below $2,450. 

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Cryptocurrency

Bitcoin Sees Intense Surge in Realized Profits Following Ascent to $111K: Glassnode

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Bitcoin investors have been aggressively taking profits since the cryptocurrency recorded a new all-time high (ATH) above $111,000. Although the asset has retracted over the past week and has been consolidating around $105,000, traders are still offloading their bags to realize gains.

This is evident in Glassnode’s Entity-Adjusted Spent Output Profit Ratio, which shows that investors are seeing a high level of profitability recorded on less than 8% of trading days.

Intense Surge in Realized Profits

The market intelligence and research firm stated that Bitcoin investors are undergoing a significant shift towards profit-taking activity. Since BTC had its ATH breakout, the average coin has captured at least 16% profit during the sale, reflecting a notable uptick in profits locked in.

On May 3, Glassnode also noted a significant spike in its Entity-Adjusted Realized Profit. The metric rallied above the $500 million/hour range three times within a 24-hour period, signaling intense profit-taking activity.

Investors locking in gains coincided with bitcoin’s brief recovery to $106,780. The asset broke out of the $105,000 region yesterday; however, at the time of writing, it had fallen back, failing to hold above $105,500.

Long-Term Holders Are Not Left Out

Last week, Glassnode revealed that long-term BTC holders were not left out of the profit-taking spree. Investors holding BTC for one to five years took profits to the extent that their aggregate volume reached $4.02 billion, the highest since February.

At the time, it was unclear whether the movement of coins from their wallets was part of a strategic reallocation or profit-taking. However, it is now clear that older Bitcoin investors have been taking profits, and this spending spike is being led by the cohort aged three to five years.

While profit-taking is in full swing, on-chain data suggests that long-term investors, specifically those in the three- to five-year cohort, are becoming exhausted from selling. This group of BTC holders has locked in significant profits each time BTC rallied in March, October, November 2024, and February 2025.

Currently, their supply share hovers around 12%, meaning they control a significant share of the wealth in the Bitcoin market. This also means that they are likely to sell and collect profits if BTC begins to surge again.

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Bitcoin Price Analysis: Is BTC Poised to Retest the $100K Support?

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Bitcoin is undergoing a retracement after hunting the liquidity above the $111K level, and is now approaching a key support zone around the $100K recent swing low. A breakdown below this level could trigger a deeper correction in the coming sessions.

Technical Analysis

By ShayanMarkets

The Daily Chart

Bitcoin has entered a corrective phase after tapping liquidity above the $111K level, encountering significant selling interest in that region. This distribution-driven pullback has pushed the price down toward a pivotal support zone near the recent swing low at $100K, a key area that could determine the asset’s next directional move.

Market momentum has noticeably cooled, and the RSI is hovering near the neutral 50 level, further reflecting indecision among participants. Should this support hold and fresh demand re-enter the market, a recovery toward the $111K all-time high becomes increasingly probable.

Conversely, if sellers manage to push the price below this crucial $100K support, a continuation of the downtrend is likely, with the 200-day moving average around $95K emerging as the next potential target.

The 4-Hour Chart

Zooming in, Bitcoin has broken down from a long-standing ascending channel and confirmed the move with a textbook pullback to the channel’s lower boundary near $106K, a bearish order block. This rejection led to renewed selling pressure, driving the price toward $103K.

Currently, BTC is consolidating within a bearish flag pattern, a classic continuation setup that typically precedes further downside. A breakdown below the $103K support would validate the pattern and likely extend the correction toward the $100K psychological level. However, if $103K acts as support, a period of sideways movement within the $103K–$106K range could unfold, awaiting a decisive breakout to define the next market direction.

On-chain Analysis

By ShayanMarkets

This chart illustrates the Exchange Outflow metric, which tracks the number of coins withdrawn per transaction from centralized exchanges. Elevated outflow values typically suggest that investors are transferring larger amounts of Bitcoin off exchanges, often interpreted as a signal of reduced short-term selling pressure and a preference for holding.

A major development recently occurred on Bitfinex, where nearly 20,000 BTC, valued at over $1.3 billion at current market prices, was withdrawn in a single day. This marks the largest daily outflow from Bitfinex since July 2022, a notable event that often signals strategic accumulation by large investors or institutions. Such significant withdrawals are generally associated with long-term storage intentions, reducing the likelihood of these coins re-entering the market in the near term.

Despite the current market volatility and price consolidation, several on-chain and derivative market indicators point toward a potential bullish phase. The alignment of neutral funding rates, deleveraging through liquidations, and heightened whale accumulation suggests the market may be undergoing a healthy reset, potentially paving the way for Bitcoin’s next upward leg.

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Disclaimer: Information found on CryptoPotato is those of writers quoted. It does not represent the opinions of CryptoPotato on whether to buy, sell, or hold any investments. You are advised to conduct your own research before making any investment decisions. Use provided information at your own risk. See Disclaimer for more information.

Cryptocurrency charts by TradingView.

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30,000 BTC Bought in 4 Days: New Bitcoin Bull Run Incoming?

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TL;DR

  • Whales bought more than $3.1 billion worth of BTC in less than a week.
  • The Fear and Greed Index has climbed back into “Greed” territory, reflecting rising optimism, though history warns against blindly following crowd sentiment.

Whales on the Move Again

The popular crypto analyst Ali Martinez revealed on X that some of the largest Bitcoin whales purchased more than 30,000 BTC in the past 96 hours alone.

According to his estimations, the collective bitcoin possessions of this group of investors are around 4.52 million BTC, representing almost 23% of the asset’s circulating supply. 

The latest buying spree comes in contrast to the price pullback of the leading digital asset, which has slipped by around 3% over the past week. Furthermore, BTC (currently worth approximately $105,800) is down 5.5% from its historical peak of nearly $112,000, registered on May 22

Such accumulation from whales is typically interpreted as a bullish factor for the price. The effort leaves fewer assets available on the open market, which, combined with non-declining demand, could trigger a rally. Additionally, it could serve as an encouraging sign to smaller players who may also join the ecosystem with fresh capital.

Less than a week ago, Martinez announced that investors holding between 100 BTC and 1,000 BTC (referred to as “sharks”) purchased 20,000 BTC in the span of just 48 hours. 

Back Into ‘Greed’ Territory

While the whales’ activity suggests that the price may head north in the short term, other metrics indicate that the opposite scenario is also not out of the question.

The popular Bitcoin Fear and Greed Index, which shows the current investor sentiment toward the cryptocurrency, is one example. 

On May 31, BTC’s price slipped below $104,000, which caused the ratio to retreat to 50, or the “Neutral” zone. However, the bulls recovered some of the losses in the following days, and the index re-entered “Greed” territory.

BTC Fear and Greed
BTC Fear and Greed, Source: alternative.me

This suggests growing optimism and an increasing appetite for BTC, but investors should stay alert. After all, the cryptocurrency market often defies the crowd’s expectations, while some prominent individuals have previously recommended buying when fear dominates. On that note, we can cite Warren Buffett’s famous advice, who once said people should “be fearful when others are greedy and to be greedy only when others are fearful.”

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