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Ripple Vs. SEC Lawsuit Update: Pro-XRP Attorney Lowers the Agency’s Appeal Chances

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TL;DR

  • Ripple was ordered to pay a $125 million fine, significantly lower than the US SEC’s initial demand, with both parties able to contend until early October.
  • Lawyer Bill Morgan now sees a reduced chance (45%-55%) of an appeal form the Commision, based on recent case developments and favorable views on Judge Torres’ ruling.

The Appeal Seems Less Likely?

The latest major development surrounding the lawsuit between Ripple and the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) occurred at the beginning of August when Judge Torres ruled that the company must pay a $125 million fine for violating certain securities laws. 

Numerous industry participants interpreted the decision as a major win for the firm, considering that the regulator initially insisted on a $2 billion penalty. Some even labeled it the end of the legal battle.

However, the case remains ongoing since both entities have until early October to appeal. Such a move coming from Ripple would be viewed as a surprise since the fine represents a 94% deduction on the regulator’s demand. Moreover, CEO Brad Garlinghouse said the firm respects the court’s ruling, while CLO Stuart Alderoty stated the organization will pay the $125 million penalty in cash off its balance sheet. 

One person who initially thought there was an 80% chance of appeal coming from the SEC is the pro-XRP lawyer Bill Morgan. Recently, though, he lowered the figure to 45%-55% after observing the developments in other cases involving the watchdog and the crypto industry. 

For instance, Judge Orrick (overseeing the lawsuit between Kraken and the SEC) preferred the approach of Judge Jackson (in the Binance case) and Judge Torres rather than Judge Rakoff (in the Terraform case).

“The favorable comments about aspects of Judge Torres’ reasoning in the Ripple summary judgment decision by Judges Orrick (Kraken case) and Jackson (Binance case) should assuage doubts about the correctness of her decision raised by some critics such as Gasparino,” Morgan maintained.

Earlier this year, Charles Gasparino, Senior Correspondent at FOX Business, claimed there were signs that Judge Torres’ legal analysis on the Ripple v. the SEC case might be “faulty.”

Morgan outlined that Judge Orrick praised Torres’ decision as “carefully constrained to the facts of the case and predicated on findings from a fully developed record.” 

Last but not least, Morgan said the SEC can easily distinguish the Ripple case from the other lawsuits “because it is narrowly confined to its own facts.” 

“Why appeal it at all, unless, of course, there are nonlegal considerations influencing the decision to appeal,” he concluded.

What if There Is an Appeal?

One individual who believes the SEC could have the upper hand should the case reach the Court of Appeal is Dennis Kelleher (former Senior Senate Staffer). 

Chance of the US SEC winning on appeal 90%: the Ripple judge got 90 years of law upside down when he ruled sophisticated investors get the protection of the securities laws, not unsophisticated investors. That’s why all the other judges have rejected it,” he said in mid-August.

On the other hand, Ripple’s top lawyer, Alderoty, estimated that the agency’s chances of securing a decisive victory are quite slim, arguing that the aforementioned court reverses the initial rulings in less than 10% of the cases. 

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El Salvador Buys the Dip, Adds 11 BTC to Its Holdings

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El Salvador has expanded its Bitcoin reserves by purchasing an additional 11 BTC on February 4.

The move is part of President Nayib Bukele’s ongoing strategy to accumulate the cryptocurrency, particularly during market downturns.

Bitcoin Purchases

According to the Nayib Bukele Portfolio Tracker, the latest acquisition brings El Salvador’s total holdings to 6,067.18 BTC, valued at approximately $613.7 million.

The country initially implemented a strategy of purchasing one Bitcoin per day but has recently accelerated its accumulation pace. Its National Bitcoin Office revealed via a February 4 post on X that in the past week alone, it has added over 20 BTC to its reserves.

President Bukele has made it clear that El Salvador’s goal is to continue acquiring more Bitcoin. He previously teased about getting the chance to “buy Bitcoin at a discount” after the U.S. government announced a $6.7 billion sale, an event typically associated with price volatility.

In September 2021, El Salvador became the first country to officially adopt BTC as a legal tender with the enactment of the Bitcoin Law. Since then, the government has introduced several initiatives connected to the cryptocurrency, including bonds, volcano-powered BTC mining, and a citizenship program linked to investments, while continuing to expand and maintain its holdings.

Last month, Bukele’s administration secured a $1.4 billion financing agreement with the International Monetary Fund (IMF), which included commitments to scale back certain Bitcoin initiatives.

Under the agreement, businesses are no longer required to accept cryptocurrency as payment, tax settlements in BTC have also been discontinued, and the government’s role in the state-backed Chivo wallet has been reduced.

El Salvador Remains Committed to Bitcoin Strategy

The IMF has repeatedly expressed concerns over El Salvador’s Bitcoin adoption, warning of potential financial stability risks. However, despite the recent policy adjustments, the government remains committed to its broader strategy.

In December 2024, Stacy Herbert, director of the National Bitcoin Office, hinted that El Salvador would accelerate its Bitcoin acquisitions. She recently reaffirmed this position, stating:

“El Salvador will continue buying Bitcoin (at possibly an accelerated pace AND at a discounted price) for its Strategic Bitcoin Reserve.”

The Central American nation’s crypto policies have also attracted interest from major industry players. Tether, the issuer of the world’s largest stablecoin, recently relocated its headquarters to the country. The firm cited its supportive regulatory environment and long-term economic vision for the move.

Additionally, President Bukele has personally invited Rumble CEO Chris Pavlovski to consider moving his company’s operations to El Salvador, further showing the country’s commitment to its Bitcoin-centred approach.

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Dogecoin’s Price Could Hit $1.25 by May, Analyst Predicts

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The crypto market is showing signs of recovery following a rollercoaster for a few days, and thoughts are turning to how high some of the more popular assets could go in the coming days and months.

One analyst has suggested that the largest meme coin by market cap, Dogecoin (DOGE), could shatter its current all-time high price and break past the $1 level by May, drawing from historical trends and technical patterns.

Bullish Symmetry

Pseudonymous crypto analyst Master Kenobi recently highlighted DOGE’s price symmetry over the past year. He noted that the OG meme coin followed a cyclical pattern of two major pumps, the first coming in February 2024 and the second following six months later in August.

While the initial surge saw the coin’s value go up at least 3 times, the gains were all lost following a significant crash in August. However, it rallied a second time soon after, with its price multiplying six times.

This particular pump also came to an abrupt end over the weekend when the entire crypto market shed more than $400 billion, triggered by a squabble over tariffs between the United States and three of its trading partners, Mexico, Canada, and China.

Dogecoin holders saw about 57% of the profits they had gained over the last five months disappear within 24 hours as the market reacted to the tariff impasse.

Despite the setback, Kenobi sees potential for another upswing. According to the analyst, DOGE’s green trendline support, which was a key level, has now turned into resistance. Consequently, if the meme coin breaks above that level again, it could trigger a strong rally.

The analyst laid out two possible scenarios for the token’s price action: On one hand, it could repeat the rally from February last year, with a peak forming by the end of the month. The second possibility is that it could follow an extended consolidation period before hitting new highs by mid-April or early May.

Kenobi is leaning more towards the latter case, estimating that if DOGE mirrors the August 2024 pattern, then a 6x rally from the current bottom could push its price to at least $1.25.

Market Sentiment Divided

The analyst’s prediction has come only a day after reports emerged that several Dogecoin whales had offloaded 270 million tokens worth about $70 million within 24 hours. This mass sell-off increased supply and raised concerns about further price declines if demand fails to keep up.

Another well-regarded market watcher, Ali Martinez, previously flagged a bearish crossover between DOGE’s Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) ratio and its 30-day Simple Moving Average. According to him, this signal could indicate further price drops in the near term.

At the time of writing, the cryptocurrency was back in the green, jumping 5.9% in the last 24 hours. However, the current price is still 21% below its seven-day peak of $0.3398, underperforming the broader crypto market, which is down 5.7%.

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US Prosecutors Charge Canadian Hacker in $65M Crypto Heist

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U.S. authorities have charged 22-year-old Canadian Andean Medjedovic for allegedly stealing approximately $65 million from two decentralized finance (DeFi) protocols, Indexed Finance and KyberSwap.

The U.S. Department of Justice (DOJ) announced on February 3 that a federal court had unsealed a five-count indictment against him.

The Charges Against Medjedovic

According to court documents, Medjedovic manipulated smart contracts on the two platforms between 2021 and 2023, tricking the protocols into miscalculating key financial variables. This allowed him to withdraw funds at artificial prices, causing significant investor losses.

Prosecutors say he laundered the stolen money through digital asset swaps, bridging transactions, and crypto mixers in an attempt to hide the illicit proceeds.

U.S. Attorney John J. Durham described the alleged crimes as a “highly sophisticated scheme to exploit two decentralized finance protocols and steal tens of millions of dollars’ worth of cryptocurrency from investors.”

Authorities further allege that after the KyberSwap exploit, the accused sought to extort the protocol’s developers and investors, demanding full control of the platform and its DAO in exchange for returning half of the stolen assets.

Medjedovic is charged with wire fraud, unauthorized damage to a protected computer, attempted extortion under the Hobbs Act, and two counts of money laundering. If convicted, he could receive a maximum sentence of 10 years for the computer damage charge and up to 20 years for the other four counts.

The Suspect’s Trail

The Canadian has been on the run since stealing from Indexed Finance in 2021. He has defended his actions online by claiming they were legal under the disapproved “code-is-law” argument, which suggests that exploiting flaws in smart contracts is fair game.

In a 2023 interview with DL News, Medjedovic stated he had traveled through Europe and Latin America, eventually settling on an undisclosed island. While he dodged questions about the exploit, he insisted he had turned to ethical hacking as a “more sustainable mode of being.”

Months later, KyberSwap was drained of approximately $50 million in crypto. Blockchain investigators linked the incident to a wallet associated with the 22-year-old that later transferred $2 million to a separate one also tied to him.

After the exploit, prosecutors say he tried to move stolen crypto to Ethereum but was blocked by developers. Frustrated, he allegedly contacted support to demand they process the transaction.

Laurence Day, a co-founder of Indexed Finance, believes the suspect’s arrest will bring little relief to victims. He noted that much of the stolen crypto was later taken in a separate hack, complicating recovery efforts.

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