TL;DR

• Grayscale’s Cardano ETF filing boosts confidence, with analysts eyeing targets of over $3 for ADA’s valuation if approved.
• Whales have accumulated 1.4 billion ADA since November 2023, reducing supply and potentially contributing to a 110% price increase since then.

Where Next for ADA?

Cardano’s native token is among the very few leading altcoins charting some gains on a weekly scale. It currently trades at around $0.79, or a 5% increase for that period. 

The resurgence is a consequence of several factors, perhaps the most important of which is Grayscale’s move. As CryptoPotato reported earlier this week, the largest digital asset manager filed for a Cardano exchange-traded fund (ETF) with the New York Stock Exchange. 

The product (if it receives the necessary green light) will provide investors with a regulated and accessible way to gain exposure to ADA without needing to hold the asset directly. This could have a beneficial effect on the price in the long term. 

Many analysts on crypto X support that thesis. The one using the moniker Max Brown suggested that the potential approval of the investment vehicle could come soon and fuel a rally to $3 and even higher.

Ali Martinez and Carl Moon also chipped in, albeit making less bullish predictions. The former thinks ADA “is breaking out,” envisioning a spike toward $0.83 “if momentum holds.”

Carl Moon believes the price could soar to $1.23 if it breaks a particular “falling wedge” formed in the last two months. As observed on the chart, ADA needs to surpass $0.81 for this potential surge to happen. 

Those willing to explore additional price forecasts can take a look at our dedicated article here.

The Whales’ Activity

Another element that could influence ADA’s resurgence is the actions of large investors, known as whales. Crypto analytics platform Santiment recently revealed that those holding at least 1 million tokens have been consistently accumulating since late November 2023. They purchased over 1.4 billion ADA and 2.35% of the entire supply during this period.

The coin’s price has risen by over 110% since whales restarted the buying spree. This shouldn’t come as surprise since these actions reduce the circulating supply of the asset and could make it more valuable (assuming demand remains constant or increases).

Additionally, purchases from whales often signal confidence in ADA, leading other investors to follow their example.

The United States Bureau of Labor Statistics released the highly-anticipated Consumer Price Index data for the first month of the year, indicating a year-over-year increase of 3%, which is higher than expectations.

Somewhat expected, BTC’s price reacted with an immediate price drop that drove it south by around two grand within minutes.

*US JAN. CONSUMER PRICES RISE 0.5% M/M; EST. +0.3%

*US JAN. CONSUMER PRICES RISE 3% Y/Y; EST. +2.9%

*US JAN. CORE CPI RISES 0.4% M/M; EST. +0.3%

*US JAN. CORE CPI RISES 3.3% Y/Y; EST. +3.1%

— *Walter Bloomberg (@DeItaone) February 12, 2025

The data for December, reported in mid-January, suggested a more positive look in terms of overall inflation rates within the US year-over-year. However, the numbers for January defy that belief as all measured data shows bigger figures than the anticipated ones.

The Core CPI, which excludes more volatile sectors such as food and energy, is up by 3.3%, while the estimations were at 3.1%. The regular CPI has increased by 3% YoY instead of 2.9%.

BTC’s price reacted immediately to this data with a sharp price fall of nearly two grand. The asset had climbed to $96,500 ahead of the announcement but slumped to $94,500 (as of now). This became its lowest price position since the early February crash when it dumped below $92,000.

Once dismissed as gimmicks, meme coins are now backed by influential figures and even state-led initiatives.

However, while adoption surges, regulatory oversight remains absent.

The Regulatory Debate Continues

According to the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) Commissioner Hester Peirce, many of the meme coins in the market today do not come under the regulatory scope of the securities agency. While admitting that “facts and circumstances matter,” Peirce, in a recent interview with Bloomberg,

“Many of the meme coins out there probably do not have a home in the SEC under our current set of regulations. If Congress wants to address, they can do that; maybe something that the CFTC wants to address, but many of those, I think, probably are not under our jurisdiction.”

Peirce, often referred to as “Crypto Mom,” was recently appointed to lead the SEC’s new crypto-focused task force.

The latest comments are in line with Silicon Valley veteran and the new AI and crypto czar under Trump, David Sacks’ recent statement wherein he categorized NFTs and meme coins as collectibles while comparing them to memorabilia with cultural and commemorative value. He explained that while digital assets vary widely, these tokens fit within the collectible category rather than being classified as securities or commodities.

However, regulatory concerns persist, as figures like Senator Elizabeth Warren call for investigations into meme coins linked to political figures. Critics, including Mark Cuban and Balaji Srinivasan, had too warned that such assets could harm the crypto industry’s reputation without proper regulations amidst a spike in interest in meme coins.

Alarm on Meme Coins

Just three days before taking office, the incoming US president introduced Official Trump (TRUMP), a meme coin aimed at fans and speculators hoping for price surges. Initially soaring from $7 to $75 within a day, TRUMP later dropped to around $40 – coinciding with the launch of Official Melania (MELANIA) by the first lady.

Even the Detroit-based pastor leading the inauguration ceremony, Lorenzo Sewell, joined the trend, endorsing his own meme coin. Currently, TRUMP trades above $15, while MELANIA sits at $1.42.

Additionally, the Central African Republic (CAR) President Faustin-Archange Touadéra also announced the launch of the CAR token. While the project gained rapid traction, an investor reportedly turned $5,000 into over $12 million within hours. However, concerns over its legitimacy quickly surfaced.

Analysts noted inconsistencies, including AI-detection tools flagging the president’s announcement video and the project’s domain being suspended by Namecheap. Skeptics even went on to point out potential manipulation, as reports of developers allegedly altering the contract to retain millions in tokens emerged.