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Cryptocurrency

Sell-Off by Small Bitcoin Traders Contrasted by Increasing Whale and Shark Holdings

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Bitcoin has experienced its most significant decline in the current cycle and is currently trading at over 25% lower than its all-time high.

Data also suggests that BTC’s current dip period has sparked contrasting behaviors among investors with whale and shark wallets, depicting a different pattern than the smaller holders.

Bitcoin’s Big Wallets Increasing

The world’s leading crypto has been plagued with the distribution of seized tokens from the German government and the defunct crypto exchange Mt. Gox.

According to the latest analysis by crypto analytic platform Santiment, small traders have been actively offloading their BTC holdings, potentially due to fear, which has contributed to the current selling pressure in the market.

Contrastingly, there has been a notable surge in the number of whales holding 1,000 BTC or more, and sharks, with 10 to 1,000 BTC, are increasing their bitcoin holdings and have remained unfazed by the factors that have prompted the small traders to reduce their stash. In fact, July has seen a net increase of more than 261 wallets that now hold at least 10 BTC.

This shift suggests that larger, more established investors are increasingly confident in bitcoin’s long-term potential, possibly signaling a bullish outlook despite the crypto facing the deepest correction since late 2022.

Correction Shallower Than Past Cycles?

According to Glassnode’s “The Week Onchain” newsletter, the current correction is significantly shallower compared to previous cycles, indicating a strong market structure and decreased volatility as BTC matures as an asset class. Glassnode analysts further noted that the sell-off has resulted in 83% of the supply held by short-term holders (addresses that have held bitcoin for less than 155 days) falling into unrealized losses.

Their estimates show that 2.9 million BTC (around $166.75 billion at current rates) out of the 3.2 million BTC ($184 billion) held by short-term holders were pushed below their cost basis due to the recent drop to $53,000. This has exerted considerable pressure on Bitcoin and the broader cryptocurrency market.

“Nevertheless, drawdowns across our current cycle remain favourable when compared to historical cycles suggesting a relatively robust underlying market structure.”

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Bitcoin Price Crashes Below $100K as Iran Votes to Close Straits of Hormuz

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Bitcoin’s price has crashed below $100,000 for the first time since May 25th, charting a decline of around 4% in the past 24 hours alone. The cryptocurrency is down 5.5% throughout the last seven days.

BTCUSD_2025-06-22_17-42-47
Source: TradingView

The market downturn has also caused a broader selloff amongst altcoins, most of which are deep in the red, resulting in almost $1 billion worth of liquidated positions, according to CoinGlass.

As CryptoPotato reported earlier today, the US joined the war between Israel and Iran, striking three strategic nuclear Irany sites.

In response, some media reports indicate that the Iranian Parliament has voted in support of closing the Strait of Hormuz – one of the world’s most criticial oil transit chokepoints.

This resulted in immediate increase in oil prices, which are up almost 1% on the day, sparking international fears of inflation and economic turmoil. Traders are seemingly derisking and it’s interesting to see how deep this correction will extend.

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Bitcoin Demand is Drying Up, What Does This Mean? (CryptoQuant)

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As bitcoin (BTC) attempts to recover from the effects of tensions in the Middle East, demand for the digital asset is drying up. Market experts from the on-chain intelligence company CryptoQuant have discovered that Bitcoin demand is entering a slowdown period.

According to the latest CryptoQuant weekly report, the decline in Bitcoin demand comes after a period of acceleration that pushed the price of BTC towards $112,000. Demand-momentum metrics are currently showing their most negative readings on record — -2 million BTC.

Bitcoin Demand is Weakening

CryptoQuant revealed that Bitcoin spot demand has continued to grow but at a decelerated expansion rate. Apparent demand growth has fallen to 118,000 BTC over the last 30 days, compared to 228,000 BTC recorded on May 27. The metric is also below its 30-day moving average, indicating that the demand for BTC is weakening.

Bitcoin whale and spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs) have halved their purchases. The expansion of whale balances has fallen to 1.7% month-over-month (MoM) from 3.9% as of May 27. Daily BTC purchases from ETFs are also down from an April 23 local peak of 9,700 BTC to 3,300 BTC today.

Additionally, demand from new participants entering the Bitcoin market is low, and overall demand momentum has turned negative. Short-term holders now account for 4.5 million BTC, a decline of 0.8 million BTC from the 5.3 million BTC they controlled as of May 27.

Furthermore, investors in the futures market have sold their BTC to lock in profits and are currently opening new short positions. CryptoQuant said its Bitcoin Traders’ Behavior Dominance metric shows that participants offloaded their coins to take profits after BTC hit $110,000 last week. Afterward, they opened fresh short positions as BTC below $105,000 amid rising tensions between Israel and Iran.

What to Expect

For BTC to experience a sustained rally, whales and spot ETFs need to increase their demand for the cryptocurrency. New investors also need to buy BTC from the old ones, thereby expanding the balances of short-term holders.

If demand continues to decline, BTC could plummet below $100,000 and fall to the support zone near $92,000. The crypto asset was hovering around $102,700 at the time of writing following the attacks from the US against Iran.

Meanwhile, CryptoQuant has identified $92,000 as the Traders’ On-chain Realized Price, which often acts as price support during bull markets. If BTC falls below this level, it could plunge to $81,000, which has been marked as the lower band of the Traders’ On-chain Realized Price.

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Max Keiser Predicts $800K BTC from ‘Bond Apocalypse,’ Markets Eye $93K

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At the time of this writing, Bitcoin (BTC) was a couple of hundred dollars under $103,000, after dipping 4% in 24 hours, but Max Keiser is suggesting this volatility is mere tremors before a seismic surge to $800,000.

In a sit-down with Bitcoin Magazine’s Isabella Santos, the legendary BTC prophet claimed that the 10-year Japanese Government Bond (JGB) yield is the “lynchpin” threatening financial collapse and triggering Bitcoin’s epic moon mission.

The Road to $800K

In the interview, the Bitcoin bull laid out a doomsday scenario that could potentially lead to an astronomical spike in the king cryptocurrency’s price:

“There is one piece of data that is the lynchpin of the entire global financial system… It’s the rate of interest on the 10-year Japanese bond,” Keiser declared.

Currently, the yield is at about 3.5%, and any higher, the market watcher warned, could potentially lead to the collapse of the decades-long “yen carry trade,” where Wall Street borrowed near-zero-yen to fuel speculative investments.

“The Japanese economy is going to have to start selling U.S. Treasury bonds to stay solid, which would create a cascading event, what I call the bond apocalypse, where the global bond market crashes.”

He stated that if this were to happen, then trillions of dollars’ worth of capital would flee collapsing government debt and rush straight into BTC.

“In that environment, Bitcoin spikes to $500,000, $600,000, $800,000.”

Bearish Caution

While Keiser’s prediction might have gotten the crypto community on X talking, the market remains rather tense and confused. Pseudonymous trader Mr Wall Street hinted at a potential short-term nosedive to the $93,000 to $95,000 range, warning that the charts were “screaming for lower.”

Still, voices of resilience have been piping up, with analyst Axel Adler Jr. pointing to rising long liquidation dominance without a major price crash as a “good signal,” suggesting strong underlying buyer support.

Additionally, on-chain sleuth DeFiTracer sees cooling Middle East tensions due to Iran’s apparent openness to talks as well as Fed member Christopher J. Waller’s signal for July rate cuts as bullish signals. He suggested these catalysts are quietly shifting markets from uncertainty “into the trust phase.”

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