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Significant growth in Bitcoin is now considered extremely unlikely. What prevents the main cryptocurrency?

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One of the expected events of this week is the growth of Bitcoin to the level of 20 thousand dollars. So far, the main cryptocurrency is trading below this line, which was previously considered by many to be a very important support level and just a psychological mark. At the same time, BTC is now dependent on the dynamics of the DXY index, which is a representation of the strength of the U.S. dollar against a basket of the other six most weighty currencies in the world and is breaking records. Let’s talk more about the current conditions in the coin market.

At the moment, most experts really don’t expect any dramatic change in what’s happening in the coin industry, as inflation in various regions continues to pick up and geopolitical issues have not yet been resolved. That doesn’t mean, however, that the growth phase for the cryptocurrency niche will never come.

There could be several reasons for the transition to coin growth. The main one is a change in the policy of the Federal Reserve, whose representatives should sooner or later leave the key rate alone after its long rise. Also, adoption of a spot ETF on Bitcoin would have a good effect. 

That said, in the short term there really isn’t much to expect from the coin market.

Why Bitcoin is not rising

The DXY index is near its all-time highs at the moment, which shows the strength of the dollar against other assets, although it has seen a slight correction in the last few days.

Even such a slight drop in the index is a very sensitive indicator for the price of Bitcoin. It is worth noting how quickly risky assets rise when the DXY drops even to its lowest value. They react much more strongly to a drop in the index than to its rise. When the DXY falls even lower, more notable bounces in the crypto market are expected.

In other words, the analyst is betting on the weakening of the dollar against other assets. Such a situation usually creates conditions for investors’ activity, as they face the need to invest their own capital. And cryptocurrencies are an attractive niche, given their fundamental features.

First, we are talking about the fixed rate of inflation, which cannot be influenced. As of today, this Bitcoin indicator is 1.68 percent per year – that is exactly the share by which the total supply of bitcoins increases over a year. At the same time, in the overall economy of various countries, this figure in annual terms exceeds 10 percent.

Some experts are even more pessimistic. They argue that the probability of Bitcoin growing to at least $24,000 soon is “quite low.” A similar situation is also seen in the stock market – investors should allegedly prepare for a new wave of correction, rather than aiming for higher levels.

Bitcoin is weakly showing any preconditions for growth. After falling below $20,000 this week, the main cryptocurrency has not demonstrated even an attempt to approach thelevel. At the same time, any serious fall from current values could mean much bigger losses for investors, as the scale of this correction is already unprecedented.

Glassnode analysts have noted a trend of “heavy pressure” on long-term Bitcoin holders. This does not mean that the current bearish trend is even close to its bottom, and in fact it only lasts fully just over 50 days. By comparison, the bear trends of 2015 and 2018 lasted 402 and 328 days, respectively. Although, if we consider the market peak to be November 2021, when Bitcoin reached $69,000, the final current interval turns out to be longer.

So there is a chance that true fans of digital assets have yet to prove their unwavering faith in the industry. And Glassnode analysts also make it clear that it is too early to wait for the final turn of the industry in the direction of the bulls.

Cryptocurrency

El Salvador Buys the Dip, Adds 11 BTC to Its Holdings

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El Salvador has expanded its Bitcoin reserves by purchasing an additional 11 BTC on February 4.

The move is part of President Nayib Bukele’s ongoing strategy to accumulate the cryptocurrency, particularly during market downturns.

Bitcoin Purchases

According to the Nayib Bukele Portfolio Tracker, the latest acquisition brings El Salvador’s total holdings to 6,067.18 BTC, valued at approximately $613.7 million.

The country initially implemented a strategy of purchasing one Bitcoin per day but has recently accelerated its accumulation pace. Its National Bitcoin Office revealed via a February 4 post on X that in the past week alone, it has added over 20 BTC to its reserves.

President Bukele has made it clear that El Salvador’s goal is to continue acquiring more Bitcoin. He previously teased about getting the chance to “buy Bitcoin at a discount” after the U.S. government announced a $6.7 billion sale, an event typically associated with price volatility.

In September 2021, El Salvador became the first country to officially adopt BTC as a legal tender with the enactment of the Bitcoin Law. Since then, the government has introduced several initiatives connected to the cryptocurrency, including bonds, volcano-powered BTC mining, and a citizenship program linked to investments, while continuing to expand and maintain its holdings.

Last month, Bukele’s administration secured a $1.4 billion financing agreement with the International Monetary Fund (IMF), which included commitments to scale back certain Bitcoin initiatives.

Under the agreement, businesses are no longer required to accept cryptocurrency as payment, tax settlements in BTC have also been discontinued, and the government’s role in the state-backed Chivo wallet has been reduced.

El Salvador Remains Committed to Bitcoin Strategy

The IMF has repeatedly expressed concerns over El Salvador’s Bitcoin adoption, warning of potential financial stability risks. However, despite the recent policy adjustments, the government remains committed to its broader strategy.

In December 2024, Stacy Herbert, director of the National Bitcoin Office, hinted that El Salvador would accelerate its Bitcoin acquisitions. She recently reaffirmed this position, stating:

“El Salvador will continue buying Bitcoin (at possibly an accelerated pace AND at a discounted price) for its Strategic Bitcoin Reserve.”

The Central American nation’s crypto policies have also attracted interest from major industry players. Tether, the issuer of the world’s largest stablecoin, recently relocated its headquarters to the country. The firm cited its supportive regulatory environment and long-term economic vision for the move.

Additionally, President Bukele has personally invited Rumble CEO Chris Pavlovski to consider moving his company’s operations to El Salvador, further showing the country’s commitment to its Bitcoin-centred approach.

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Dogecoin’s Price Could Hit $1.25 by May, Analyst Predicts

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The crypto market is showing signs of recovery following a rollercoaster for a few days, and thoughts are turning to how high some of the more popular assets could go in the coming days and months.

One analyst has suggested that the largest meme coin by market cap, Dogecoin (DOGE), could shatter its current all-time high price and break past the $1 level by May, drawing from historical trends and technical patterns.

Bullish Symmetry

Pseudonymous crypto analyst Master Kenobi recently highlighted DOGE’s price symmetry over the past year. He noted that the OG meme coin followed a cyclical pattern of two major pumps, the first coming in February 2024 and the second following six months later in August.

While the initial surge saw the coin’s value go up at least 3 times, the gains were all lost following a significant crash in August. However, it rallied a second time soon after, with its price multiplying six times.

This particular pump also came to an abrupt end over the weekend when the entire crypto market shed more than $400 billion, triggered by a squabble over tariffs between the United States and three of its trading partners, Mexico, Canada, and China.

Dogecoin holders saw about 57% of the profits they had gained over the last five months disappear within 24 hours as the market reacted to the tariff impasse.

Despite the setback, Kenobi sees potential for another upswing. According to the analyst, DOGE’s green trendline support, which was a key level, has now turned into resistance. Consequently, if the meme coin breaks above that level again, it could trigger a strong rally.

The analyst laid out two possible scenarios for the token’s price action: On one hand, it could repeat the rally from February last year, with a peak forming by the end of the month. The second possibility is that it could follow an extended consolidation period before hitting new highs by mid-April or early May.

Kenobi is leaning more towards the latter case, estimating that if DOGE mirrors the August 2024 pattern, then a 6x rally from the current bottom could push its price to at least $1.25.

Market Sentiment Divided

The analyst’s prediction has come only a day after reports emerged that several Dogecoin whales had offloaded 270 million tokens worth about $70 million within 24 hours. This mass sell-off increased supply and raised concerns about further price declines if demand fails to keep up.

Another well-regarded market watcher, Ali Martinez, previously flagged a bearish crossover between DOGE’s Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) ratio and its 30-day Simple Moving Average. According to him, this signal could indicate further price drops in the near term.

At the time of writing, the cryptocurrency was back in the green, jumping 5.9% in the last 24 hours. However, the current price is still 21% below its seven-day peak of $0.3398, underperforming the broader crypto market, which is down 5.7%.

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US Prosecutors Charge Canadian Hacker in $65M Crypto Heist

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U.S. authorities have charged 22-year-old Canadian Andean Medjedovic for allegedly stealing approximately $65 million from two decentralized finance (DeFi) protocols, Indexed Finance and KyberSwap.

The U.S. Department of Justice (DOJ) announced on February 3 that a federal court had unsealed a five-count indictment against him.

The Charges Against Medjedovic

According to court documents, Medjedovic manipulated smart contracts on the two platforms between 2021 and 2023, tricking the protocols into miscalculating key financial variables. This allowed him to withdraw funds at artificial prices, causing significant investor losses.

Prosecutors say he laundered the stolen money through digital asset swaps, bridging transactions, and crypto mixers in an attempt to hide the illicit proceeds.

U.S. Attorney John J. Durham described the alleged crimes as a “highly sophisticated scheme to exploit two decentralized finance protocols and steal tens of millions of dollars’ worth of cryptocurrency from investors.”

Authorities further allege that after the KyberSwap exploit, the accused sought to extort the protocol’s developers and investors, demanding full control of the platform and its DAO in exchange for returning half of the stolen assets.

Medjedovic is charged with wire fraud, unauthorized damage to a protected computer, attempted extortion under the Hobbs Act, and two counts of money laundering. If convicted, he could receive a maximum sentence of 10 years for the computer damage charge and up to 20 years for the other four counts.

The Suspect’s Trail

The Canadian has been on the run since stealing from Indexed Finance in 2021. He has defended his actions online by claiming they were legal under the disapproved “code-is-law” argument, which suggests that exploiting flaws in smart contracts is fair game.

In a 2023 interview with DL News, Medjedovic stated he had traveled through Europe and Latin America, eventually settling on an undisclosed island. While he dodged questions about the exploit, he insisted he had turned to ethical hacking as a “more sustainable mode of being.”

Months later, KyberSwap was drained of approximately $50 million in crypto. Blockchain investigators linked the incident to a wallet associated with the 22-year-old that later transferred $2 million to a separate one also tied to him.

After the exploit, prosecutors say he tried to move stolen crypto to Ethereum but was blocked by developers. Frustrated, he allegedly contacted support to demand they process the transaction.

Laurence Day, a co-founder of Indexed Finance, believes the suspect’s arrest will bring little relief to victims. He noted that much of the stolen crypto was later taken in a separate hack, complicating recovery efforts.

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