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Significant growth in Bitcoin is now considered extremely unlikely. What prevents the main cryptocurrency?

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One of the expected events of this week is the growth of Bitcoin to the level of 20 thousand dollars. So far, the main cryptocurrency is trading below this line, which was previously considered by many to be a very important support level and just a psychological mark. At the same time, BTC is now dependent on the dynamics of the DXY index, which is a representation of the strength of the U.S. dollar against a basket of the other six most weighty currencies in the world and is breaking records. Let’s talk more about the current conditions in the coin market.

At the moment, most experts really don’t expect any dramatic change in what’s happening in the coin industry, as inflation in various regions continues to pick up and geopolitical issues have not yet been resolved. That doesn’t mean, however, that the growth phase for the cryptocurrency niche will never come.

There could be several reasons for the transition to coin growth. The main one is a change in the policy of the Federal Reserve, whose representatives should sooner or later leave the key rate alone after its long rise. Also, adoption of a spot ETF on Bitcoin would have a good effect. 

That said, in the short term there really isn’t much to expect from the coin market.

Why Bitcoin is not rising

The DXY index is near its all-time highs at the moment, which shows the strength of the dollar against other assets, although it has seen a slight correction in the last few days.

Even such a slight drop in the index is a very sensitive indicator for the price of Bitcoin. It is worth noting how quickly risky assets rise when the DXY drops even to its lowest value. They react much more strongly to a drop in the index than to its rise. When the DXY falls even lower, more notable bounces in the crypto market are expected.

In other words, the analyst is betting on the weakening of the dollar against other assets. Such a situation usually creates conditions for investors’ activity, as they face the need to invest their own capital. And cryptocurrencies are an attractive niche, given their fundamental features.

First, we are talking about the fixed rate of inflation, which cannot be influenced. As of today, this Bitcoin indicator is 1.68 percent per year – that is exactly the share by which the total supply of bitcoins increases over a year. At the same time, in the overall economy of various countries, this figure in annual terms exceeds 10 percent.

Some experts are even more pessimistic. They argue that the probability of Bitcoin growing to at least $24,000 soon is “quite low.” A similar situation is also seen in the stock market – investors should allegedly prepare for a new wave of correction, rather than aiming for higher levels.

Bitcoin is weakly showing any preconditions for growth. After falling below $20,000 this week, the main cryptocurrency has not demonstrated even an attempt to approach thelevel. At the same time, any serious fall from current values could mean much bigger losses for investors, as the scale of this correction is already unprecedented.

Glassnode analysts have noted a trend of “heavy pressure” on long-term Bitcoin holders. This does not mean that the current bearish trend is even close to its bottom, and in fact it only lasts fully just over 50 days. By comparison, the bear trends of 2015 and 2018 lasted 402 and 328 days, respectively. Although, if we consider the market peak to be November 2021, when Bitcoin reached $69,000, the final current interval turns out to be longer.

So there is a chance that true fans of digital assets have yet to prove their unwavering faith in the industry. And Glassnode analysts also make it clear that it is too early to wait for the final turn of the industry in the direction of the bulls.

Cryptocurrency

New Ethereum Upgrade Could Reduce Block Time by 33% and Increase Throughput by 50%

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A new Ethereum Improvement Proposal, EIP-7781, introduced on October 5, 2024, aims to reduce Ethereum’s block time from 12 seconds to 8 seconds.

The upgrade, introduced by Ben Adams, co-founder of Illyriad Games, could also enhance data capacity and potentially increase network throughput by 50%.

A Major Step for Ethereum’s Future

In an October 6 post on X, a developer pseudonymously known as Cygaar hailed EIP-7781 as the “first huge” step toward improving Ethereum’s L1 performance. They suggested that implementing it could reduce network bottlenecks and improve data capacity.

EIP-7781 is designed to expand the capacity of “blobs,” a temporary data structure that reduces fees on layer-2 (L2) networks.

The proposed changes aim to improve mainnet throughput while evenly distributing bandwidth usage. Some hope this will ultimately reduce peak demands without increasing the number of blocks or blobs to ensure smoother processing and lower latency, particularly for L2s.

Many have expressed support for the improvement proposal. In the GitHub thread, Ethereum Foundation researcher Justin Drake noted that the plan aligns with broader scaling goals laid out by Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin, as well as several other scaling organizations.

Drake said that reducing block time could improve the efficiency of decentralized exchanges (DEXs) like Uniswap v3 by 22%, roughly saving it about $100 million each year in CEX-DEX arbitrage.

Additionally, experts say the upgrade could enhance the user experience for Ethereum smart contracts by reducing confirmation times by 33%. The changes would also distribute peak load times more evenly across more slots, reducing strain during periods of high demand.

Potential Concerns for Solo Stakers

Meanwhile, some developers are concerned about the plan’s impact on solo stakers. According to some of them, shorter block times would necessitate faster execution and more powerful hardware, increasing bandwidth and processing demands. It could pose challenges for individual stakers using consumer-grade hardware.

Responding to Cygaar’s post, Adam Cochran, a partner at Cinnehaim Ventures, described the EIP as “reasonable.” However, he stressed the need for the gas limit for every block to remain the same for it to be feasible for most users.

In addition, the Information Science professor warned that increased demands could hinder Ethereum’s long-term decentralization goals by making it harder for everyday users to act as validators.

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Metaplanet’s Bitcoin Stash Reaches $40.6 Million After Latest Purchase

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Tokyo-listed Bitcoin holder Metaplanet has purchased an additional 108.786 Bitcoin for 1 billion yen, reflecting its ongoing bullish stance on the crypto asset.

The latest stash is worth around $6.7 million.

Metaplanet Expands Bitcoin Holdings

According to the official statement released on Monday, Metaplanet – often referred to as Japan’s MicroStrategy – now holds 639.503 BTC, with a current market value of around $40.6 million. The firm disclosed that it acquired the additional bitcoins at an average price of 9.19 million yen ($61,880) per coin, while its total bitcoin purchases averaged 9.32 million yen ($62,790) per bitcoin.

The Japanese company has ramped up its bitcoin purchases over the past few months. In May, it declared that it was adopting the cryptocurrency as a key part of its treasury reserve strategy. Last week, it announced the acquisition of another 107.913 BTC, worth approximately 1 billion yen ($6.9 million).

Data compiled by Google Finance revealed that the firm’s stock price jumped over 12% following the announcement on October 7th, peaking at 1,045 yen on the Tokyo Stock Exchange, but later declining to 988 yen.

Metaplanet announced in August that it had obtained a 1 billion yen (worth around $6.8 million) loan from shareholder MMXX Ventures to boost its Bitcoin reserves. The loan features a 0.1% annual interest rate and a six-month term, beginning August 8, with repayment in a single lump sum. If the company uses the full loan amount for Bitcoin, it could purchase approximately 118.5 BTC at current prices.

Metaplanet’s Strategic Options Sale

Metaplanet also recently announced that it had sold 223 bitcoin put option contracts with a strike price of $62,000 and a maturity date of December 27.

The deal was made with Singapore-based digital asset trading firm QCP Capital as the counterparty. The announcement revealed that Metaplanet received a premium of 23.972 BTC ($1.44 million).

Metaplanet provided $13.826 million in collateral and received a 0.1075 BTC premium per contract upfront. The transaction yielded a nominal return of 10.75% and an annualized return of 45.63%.

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Ripple (XRP) Price Prediction for This Week

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XRP seems to have found support around 50 cents. Can buyers push the price higher this week?

Key Support levels: $0.50

Key Resistance levels: $0.54, $0.68

1. Price Finds Support

After a sharp fall last week, bulls appear to be back. XRP opened this Monday in green and is keen to return on an uptrend. As long as the key support at 50 cents holds, buyers have a good chance to return on the offensive.

XRPUSDT_2024-10-07_16-38-24
Chart by TradingView

2. Sellers are Retreating

Early October saw a spike in sell volume, but now sentiment across the market is improving, which could see the momentum shift back into the bulls’ favor. If so, buyers can aim to take XRP back above 60 cents. However, once there, sellers could return, as in late September.

XRPUSDT_2024-10-07_16-38-36
Chart by TradingView

3. MACD Momentum Shifting

After a difficult start this month, the momentum on the daily MACD is showing the first signs of a reversal, with a histogram making higher lows. If this trend continues, buyers could soon take over the price action and push XRP to break higher again.

XRPUSDT_2024-10-07_16-39-30
Chart by TradingView
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