One of the expected events of this week is the growth of Bitcoin to the level of 20 thousand dollars. So far, the main cryptocurrency is trading below this line, which was previously considered by many to be a very important support level and just a psychological mark. At the same time, BTC is now dependent on the dynamics of the DXY index, which is a representation of the strength of the U.S. dollar against a basket of the other six most weighty currencies in the world and is breaking records. Let’s talk more about the current conditions in the coin market.
At the moment, most experts really don’t expect any dramatic change in what’s happening in the coin industry, as inflation in various regions continues to pick up and geopolitical issues have not yet been resolved. That doesn’t mean, however, that the growth phase for the cryptocurrency niche will never come.
There could be several reasons for the transition to coin growth. The main one is a change in the policy of the Federal Reserve, whose representatives should sooner or later leave the key rate alone after its long rise. Also, adoption of a spot ETF on Bitcoin would have a good effect.
That said, in the short term there really isn’t much to expect from the coin market.
Why Bitcoin is not rising
The DXY index is near its all-time highs at the moment, which shows the strength of the dollar against other assets, although it has seen a slight correction in the last few days.
Even such a slight drop in the index is a very sensitive indicator for the price of Bitcoin. It is worth noting how quickly risky assets rise when the DXY drops even to its lowest value. They react much more strongly to a drop in the index than to its rise. When the DXY falls even lower, more notable bounces in the crypto market are expected.
In other words, the analyst is betting on the weakening of the dollar against other assets. Such a situation usually creates conditions for investors’ activity, as they face the need to invest their own capital. And cryptocurrencies are an attractive niche, given their fundamental features.
First, we are talking about the fixed rate of inflation, which cannot be influenced. As of today, this Bitcoin indicator is 1.68 percent per year – that is exactly the share by which the total supply of bitcoins increases over a year. At the same time, in the overall economy of various countries, this figure in annual terms exceeds 10 percent.
Some experts are even more pessimistic. They argue that the probability of Bitcoin growing to at least $24,000 soon is “quite low.” A similar situation is also seen in the stock market – investors should allegedly prepare for a new wave of correction, rather than aiming for higher levels.
Bitcoin is weakly showing any preconditions for growth. After falling below $20,000 this week, the main cryptocurrency has not demonstrated even an attempt to approach thelevel. At the same time, any serious fall from current values could mean much bigger losses for investors, as the scale of this correction is already unprecedented.
Glassnode analysts have noted a trend of “heavy pressure” on long-term Bitcoin holders. This does not mean that the current bearish trend is even close to its bottom, and in fact it only lasts fully just over 50 days. By comparison, the bear trends of 2015 and 2018 lasted 402 and 328 days, respectively. Although, if we consider the market peak to be November 2021, when Bitcoin reached $69,000, the final current interval turns out to be longer.
So there is a chance that true fans of digital assets have yet to prove their unwavering faith in the industry. And Glassnode analysts also make it clear that it is too early to wait for the final turn of the industry in the direction of the bulls.
BTC Rejected Off $64,000 As Crypto Market Suffers $600 Million Of Liquidations
The price of Bitcoin (BTC) experienced massive volatility on Wednesday, soaring to nearly $64,000 before sinking again to $60,500 within one hour.
Amid the chaos, crypto traders have experienced $638 million in liquidation over the past 24 hours, including $391 million of liquidations in the past 4 hours alone.
- According to Coinglass, about $55 million of liquidations in the last hour impacted a consortium of little-known altcoins, while $96 million was liquidated on BTC trades directly.
- Meanwhile, ETH traders suffered $45 million of liquidations, and DOGE traders lost $29 million.
- In the past 24 hours, a massive 168,988 traders were liquidated. The largest single liquidation occurred on OKX on a BTC-USDT trade for $9.45 million.
- The price of BTC is $61,400 at writing time, up 21% within the past five days alone.
- Many credit the asset’s recent surge to the launch of several bitcoin ETFs last month.
- BlackRock’s Bitcoin ETF – the largest of all newcomers – now holds over $8 billion in BTC, and absorbed a record $520 million of flows on Tuesday.
BlackRock Bitcoin ETF Smashes Daily Inflow Record, Ranks 2nd In United States
BlackRock’s Bitcoin (BTC) ETF has cracked a new daily inflow record, helping push Bitcoin’s above $60,000 for the first time since November 2021.
The iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) absorbed another $520 million on Tuesday, bringing the fund’s total flows since launch above $6.5 billion. Furthermore, thanks to Bitcoin’s rising price during that period, the value of the firm’s Bitcoin stash has appreciated to over $8 billion.
BlackRock Breaking Record
By comparison, Fidelity’s Bitcoin ETF now holds $5.6 billion in BTC, but absorbed a much smaller $126 million flow on Tuesday.
Meanwhile, Grayscale – IBIT’s largest competitor – suffered another $125 million of outflows. Though Grayscale still bears a significant lead in total assets at $25 billion, BlackRock’s ETF is slowly gaining ground against the incumbent fund due to its much lower management fee.
According to Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas, BlackRock’s stellar inflow figure made it the number two ETF for inflows in the United States yesterday, only behind BlackRock’s iShares Core S&P 500 ETF (IVV).
“This means a good portion of that massive volume was new buying vs arb/algo,” Balchunas wrote to X on Tuesday.
The analyst also noted that individual trades for IBIT’s ETF surpassed those of both the SPY and QQQ. This suggests that a large component of buyers trading the ETFs are retail-based – an unexpected finding given the ETF’s popularity as an institutional trading ground.
Bitcoin ETFs And Surging Price
The price of Bitcoin has skyrocketed by over 25% in the past five days, now trading at over $63,000 at writing time. Many analysts credit its success to the launch of Bitcoin spot ETFs, which have collectively absorbed over $6.7 billion of flows since going live on January 11.
After 30 days, BlackRock and Fidelity’s Bitcoin funds had already broken records as the two most successful ETF launches in history based on flows. BlackRock also tapped a new daily high for trading volume on Monday, surpassing $1.3 billion and entering into the top 11 ETFs in the country by volume.
Bitcoin now approaches its all-time high of $69,000 USD, though, in some currency denominations, it has already broken its prior records. For instance, one BTC is now worth over 95,000 Australian dollars, compared to $87,000 at its peak in November 2021.
3 Catalysts That Suggest More Gains for Bitcoin After Price Broke $60K
Bitcoin surged above $61,000 on Wednesday, marking its highest level since November 2021. The rally seems fueled by significant inflows into US-based spot Bitcoin ETFs.
With bullish momentum building, all eyes are on the leading crypto asset’s trajectory, and data suggest that it might be able to break its previously established all-time high of $69,045.
MVRV Ratio Signals Buying Opportunity
The MVRV Ratio, derived from dividing an asset’s market capitalization by its realized capitalization, serves as a pivotal metric in cryptocurrency trading. When below 1, it indicates most holders are at a loss, signaling a potential buying opportunity.
On the other hand, a rising ratio suggests increased profit-taking, potentially leading to selling pressure and market corrections.
Historically, an MVRV Ratio nearing 4 signaled market tops, though this threshold has decreased in each cycle. According to Intotheblock’s latest observation, the value stands at 2.22, essentially hinting at a bullish market that is not yet excessively overheated.
Subdued Retail Crowd
Despite Bitcoin’s remarkable price movement, current data suggests an absence of retail investors. While there has been a rise in the number of new addresses, Intotheblock said it is likely attributed to active market participants engaging with Ordinals.
However, new addresses have since declined and remain relatively consistent. The same pattern is observed with active addresses. Both Google trends and app store data show no significant surge in retail interest yet.
On-chain volume is gradually increasing, reminiscent of the early phases of the 2021 bull market, but it has not reached the frenzy levels seen during the peak.
This implies that institutional investors might be driving this phase, with attention focused on ETFs as potential accumulators.
Despite Bitcoin’s incredible price movement, current data indicates a quiet retail front💤
➖While there was a boost in new addresses, this was likely related to active market participants engaging with Ordinals. New addresses have dropped since and remain relatively stable. The… pic.twitter.com/uS1Gxd3Rg2
— IntoTheBlock (@intotheblock) February 28, 2024
Meanwhile, those monitoring altcoins are speculating on whether renewed retail interest will shift Bitcoin’s upward trend towards broader market movements. However, the upcoming halving could change this dynamic and push the crypto asset to a new peak.
Bitcoin Halving: A Major Catalyst
The analysis from ITB suggests that the upcoming Bitcoin halving in April typically triggers a surge in price according to historical patterns. However, in the current cycle, the price rally has occurred earlier than anticipated.
This deviation may imply that investors are aware of the potential impact of the halving and are adjusting their investments accordingly ahead of time. In short, these market players are anticipating and acting upon the expected price movement associated with the halving event well before it actually takes place.
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