Cryptocurrency
Spot ETF Inflows to Have Weaker Effect on Ether Than Bitcoin: CryptoQuant
The first wave of spot Ethereum exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in the United States debuted on July 23, with inflows running above $100 million. While the positive flows signal a strong start for the funds, ether (ETH) may not witness the parabolic uptrend bitcoin (BTC) saw after asset managers launched its ETFs earlier this year.
In CryptoQuant’s latest weekly crypto report, on-chain experts explained that new money flows into digital asset products like ETFs would have a weaker effect on ETH than BTC due to the networks’ distinct multiplier effects.
ETH Multiplier Lower Than BTC
According to analysts, Ether’s multiplier is lower than bitcoin’s and has remained low in 2024. The multiplier is the ratio of the change in market capitalization to the realized capitalization. This means that Ether’s market value responds less to fresh inflow of investment money. For every $1 of fresh money invested in bitcoin, the asset’s market cap has grown by $5. However, Ether’s market cap has increased by $1.34 for every $1 invested.
The CryptoQuant report further outlined other factors that could hinder ETH from experiencing bitcoin’s post-ETF launch growth. One of them is Ether’s rising supply.
Since Ethereum developers implemented the Dencun upgrade on the network in March, Ether’s supply has been rising. Dencun introduced a mechanism that allowed for data blobs and reduced transaction fees drastically; lower transaction fees translated to a decline in burned ETH.
ETH Supply is Increasing
Before Dencun, Ethereum implemented upgrades that ensured the network remained deflationary by burning a part of transaction fees. Since Dencun, ether’s supply has been increasing at a high rate, the fastest since The Merge in September 2022. At press time, ETH had a total and circulating supply of 120.22 million but no maximum supply. Conversely, BTC has a supply cap of 21 million.
Analysts said the structural change in Ethereum’s monetary policy is causing the network to lose its ultra-sound money narrative. The ultrasound concept insists that Ethereum has the potential to become more sound than Bitcoin by using features that preserve purchasing power and reduce ETH supply over time.
Although the price of ETH appears to have bottomed out, and indicators signal positive momentum, the asset’s spot trading volume on centralized exchanges is still to be considered. Since January, ether’s spot volume has been 85% that of bitcoin in the same period and 58% that of the leading cryptocurrency since 2020.
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Cryptocurrency
El Salvador Buys the Dip, Adds 11 BTC to Its Holdings
El Salvador has expanded its Bitcoin reserves by purchasing an additional 11 BTC on February 4.
The move is part of President Nayib Bukele’s ongoing strategy to accumulate the cryptocurrency, particularly during market downturns.
Bitcoin Purchases
According to the Nayib Bukele Portfolio Tracker, the latest acquisition brings El Salvador’s total holdings to 6,067.18 BTC, valued at approximately $613.7 million.
The country initially implemented a strategy of purchasing one Bitcoin per day but has recently accelerated its accumulation pace. Its National Bitcoin Office revealed via a February 4 post on X that in the past week alone, it has added over 20 BTC to its reserves.
President Bukele has made it clear that El Salvador’s goal is to continue acquiring more Bitcoin. He previously teased about getting the chance to “buy Bitcoin at a discount” after the U.S. government announced a $6.7 billion sale, an event typically associated with price volatility.
In September 2021, El Salvador became the first country to officially adopt BTC as a legal tender with the enactment of the Bitcoin Law. Since then, the government has introduced several initiatives connected to the cryptocurrency, including bonds, volcano-powered BTC mining, and a citizenship program linked to investments, while continuing to expand and maintain its holdings.
Last month, Bukele’s administration secured a $1.4 billion financing agreement with the International Monetary Fund (IMF), which included commitments to scale back certain Bitcoin initiatives.
Under the agreement, businesses are no longer required to accept cryptocurrency as payment, tax settlements in BTC have also been discontinued, and the government’s role in the state-backed Chivo wallet has been reduced.
El Salvador Remains Committed to Bitcoin Strategy
The IMF has repeatedly expressed concerns over El Salvador’s Bitcoin adoption, warning of potential financial stability risks. However, despite the recent policy adjustments, the government remains committed to its broader strategy.
In December 2024, Stacy Herbert, director of the National Bitcoin Office, hinted that El Salvador would accelerate its Bitcoin acquisitions. She recently reaffirmed this position, stating:
“El Salvador will continue buying Bitcoin (at possibly an accelerated pace AND at a discounted price) for its Strategic Bitcoin Reserve.”
The Central American nation’s crypto policies have also attracted interest from major industry players. Tether, the issuer of the world’s largest stablecoin, recently relocated its headquarters to the country. The firm cited its supportive regulatory environment and long-term economic vision for the move.
Additionally, President Bukele has personally invited Rumble CEO Chris Pavlovski to consider moving his company’s operations to El Salvador, further showing the country’s commitment to its Bitcoin-centred approach.
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Cryptocurrency
Dogecoin’s Price Could Hit $1.25 by May, Analyst Predicts
The crypto market is showing signs of recovery following a rollercoaster for a few days, and thoughts are turning to how high some of the more popular assets could go in the coming days and months.
One analyst has suggested that the largest meme coin by market cap, Dogecoin (DOGE), could shatter its current all-time high price and break past the $1 level by May, drawing from historical trends and technical patterns.
Bullish Symmetry
Pseudonymous crypto analyst Master Kenobi recently highlighted DOGE’s price symmetry over the past year. He noted that the OG meme coin followed a cyclical pattern of two major pumps, the first coming in February 2024 and the second following six months later in August.
While the initial surge saw the coin’s value go up at least 3 times, the gains were all lost following a significant crash in August. However, it rallied a second time soon after, with its price multiplying six times.
This particular pump also came to an abrupt end over the weekend when the entire crypto market shed more than $400 billion, triggered by a squabble over tariffs between the United States and three of its trading partners, Mexico, Canada, and China.
Dogecoin holders saw about 57% of the profits they had gained over the last five months disappear within 24 hours as the market reacted to the tariff impasse.
Despite the setback, Kenobi sees potential for another upswing. According to the analyst, DOGE’s green trendline support, which was a key level, has now turned into resistance. Consequently, if the meme coin breaks above that level again, it could trigger a strong rally.
The analyst laid out two possible scenarios for the token’s price action: On one hand, it could repeat the rally from February last year, with a peak forming by the end of the month. The second possibility is that it could follow an extended consolidation period before hitting new highs by mid-April or early May.
Kenobi is leaning more towards the latter case, estimating that if DOGE mirrors the August 2024 pattern, then a 6x rally from the current bottom could push its price to at least $1.25.
Market Sentiment Divided
The analyst’s prediction has come only a day after reports emerged that several Dogecoin whales had offloaded 270 million tokens worth about $70 million within 24 hours. This mass sell-off increased supply and raised concerns about further price declines if demand fails to keep up.
Another well-regarded market watcher, Ali Martinez, previously flagged a bearish crossover between DOGE’s Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) ratio and its 30-day Simple Moving Average. According to him, this signal could indicate further price drops in the near term.
At the time of writing, the cryptocurrency was back in the green, jumping 5.9% in the last 24 hours. However, the current price is still 21% below its seven-day peak of $0.3398, underperforming the broader crypto market, which is down 5.7%.
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Cryptocurrency
US Prosecutors Charge Canadian Hacker in $65M Crypto Heist
U.S. authorities have charged 22-year-old Canadian Andean Medjedovic for allegedly stealing approximately $65 million from two decentralized finance (DeFi) protocols, Indexed Finance and KyberSwap.
The U.S. Department of Justice (DOJ) announced on February 3 that a federal court had unsealed a five-count indictment against him.
The Charges Against Medjedovic
According to court documents, Medjedovic manipulated smart contracts on the two platforms between 2021 and 2023, tricking the protocols into miscalculating key financial variables. This allowed him to withdraw funds at artificial prices, causing significant investor losses.
Prosecutors say he laundered the stolen money through digital asset swaps, bridging transactions, and crypto mixers in an attempt to hide the illicit proceeds.
U.S. Attorney John J. Durham described the alleged crimes as a “highly sophisticated scheme to exploit two decentralized finance protocols and steal tens of millions of dollars’ worth of cryptocurrency from investors.”
Authorities further allege that after the KyberSwap exploit, the accused sought to extort the protocol’s developers and investors, demanding full control of the platform and its DAO in exchange for returning half of the stolen assets.
Medjedovic is charged with wire fraud, unauthorized damage to a protected computer, attempted extortion under the Hobbs Act, and two counts of money laundering. If convicted, he could receive a maximum sentence of 10 years for the computer damage charge and up to 20 years for the other four counts.
The Suspect’s Trail
The Canadian has been on the run since stealing from Indexed Finance in 2021. He has defended his actions online by claiming they were legal under the disapproved “code-is-law” argument, which suggests that exploiting flaws in smart contracts is fair game.
In a 2023 interview with DL News, Medjedovic stated he had traveled through Europe and Latin America, eventually settling on an undisclosed island. While he dodged questions about the exploit, he insisted he had turned to ethical hacking as a “more sustainable mode of being.”
Months later, KyberSwap was drained of approximately $50 million in crypto. Blockchain investigators linked the incident to a wallet associated with the 22-year-old that later transferred $2 million to a separate one also tied to him.
After the exploit, prosecutors say he tried to move stolen crypto to Ethereum but was blocked by developers. Frustrated, he allegedly contacted support to demand they process the transaction.
Laurence Day, a co-founder of Indexed Finance, believes the suspect’s arrest will bring little relief to victims. He noted that much of the stolen crypto was later taken in a separate hack, complicating recovery efforts.
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