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The creator of Stock-to-Flow model believes that the bull market for Bitcoin has already begun

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A bull market for Bitcoin

Renowned crypto analyst and creator of the Stock-to-Flow (S2F) model PlanB has published a long-term chart called Bitcoin Market Stages. According to him, the new model is based on only one onchain variable — but he does not disclose which one. According to the analyst’s interpretation of the data, a bull market for Bitcoin began in January 2023.

Unlike Stock-to-Flow, the Bitcoin Market Stages model is not predictive or estimative. Its only purpose is to try to determine what stage of the market cycle BTC is in. 

Bitcoin market moves in cycles

Bitcoin Market Stages is based on the claim that any market, including the cryptocurrency market, moves cyclically. Moreover, these cycles are based on mathematical and fractal similarities, which are nothing more than quantitative representations of human psychology.

The new PlanB model is very simple — it assumes that the market cycle consists of 4 consecutive phases or stages:

  • Early bull market.
  • Late bull market.
  • Early bear market.
  • Late bear market.

According to the chart above, the late bear market phase ended at the end of 2022. Moreover, it has completed its 4th consecutive cycle, counting since 2011.

Analyst plans to update the S2F model

PlanB also discusses updating its famous Stock-to-Flow model based on historical data on Bitcoin price movement and shortfalls between halves. The analyst has created at least 3 versions of S2F over the years. The original model was published in 2019 and took into account monthly estimates of BTC’s value and scarcity — according to it, the current price of the asset is estimated at $55,000.

Two other versions are the annual S2F model and the so-called Stock-to-Flow (S2FX) cross-asset model. According to the first, the average price of BTC in the current cycle should be $100,000. According to the second one, up to $288,000. 

Earlier, we reported that Dubai is tightening inspections of cryptocurrency companies.

Cryptocurrency

Top Cardano (ADA) Price Predictions as of Late

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TL;DR

  • Analysts cite bullish chart patterns to envision potential price breakouts above $3 and even a new all-time high of over $4.
  • A rising outflow of ADA from exchanges to self-custody wallets suggests strong holding behavior, while Grayscale’s proposed spot ETF (now awaiting SEC approval) could open the floodgates to mainstream investment if approved.

Time for Another Pump?

Cardano’s ADA has been underperforming over the past two weeks, with its price dropping by 5% during that period to the current $0.77 (according to CoinGecko’s data). Despite the downtrend, many market observers remain optimistic in their predictions.

Hardy, an X user with more than 70,000 followers, thinks ADA looks solid at its ongoing level. Furthermore, they argued that the asset’s “epic bull run” has not yet started.

X Finance Bull described ADA as “one of the biggest sleeper gains in crypto right now. The X user believes the valuation is poised to surpass $3, adding that a new all-time high is closer than some might think. 

Smith also chipped in, spotting the formation of a “monstrous cup and handle” on ADA’s price chart. This is a bullish pattern that signals the potential for a major rally. Smith believes the valuation could explode above $4 once it exceeds the breakout target of $0.92. 

Those interested in exploring additional price forecasts for Cardano’s native token can refer to our previous dedicated article here.

The Bullish Indicators

According to CoinGlass’s data, there has been a significant shift of ADA tokens from centralized exchanges toward self-custody methods in the past several months. This is considered bullish since it reduces the immediate selling pressure.

ADA Exchange Netflow
ADA Exchange Netflow, Source: CoinGlass

The potential launch of a spot ADA ETF can also positively impact the price. The leading digital asset manager, Grayscale, displayed its intentions to introduce such a product in the USA in February of this year. The decision is now in the hands of the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC).

Such an investment vehicle will give investors additional and simplified options to gain exposure to ADA. After all, buying a spot ETF is like purchasing regular stocks, all done via standard brokerage accounts. In the aftermath, Investors own shares, while the fund holds the actual cryptocurrency on their behalf.

According to Polymarket, the approval odds before the end of 2025 stand at 83%.

ADA ETF Approval Odds
ADA ETF Approval Odds, Source: Polymarket
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Ethereum’s Low Funding Rates Signal ‘Full-Fledged’ Rally Ahead: Analyst

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Ethereum’s ten-year milestone has been marked not just by reflection but by a steady rally that has investors bracing for what could be the cryptocurrency’s next big breakout.

With ETH trading at $3,800 at press time, still 24% below its all-time high, pseudonymous CryptoQuant analyst CoinCare says its subdued futures funding rates and deep-pocketed accumulation suggest the uptick is far from over.

The Funding Rate Divergence

According to CoinCare, Ethereum’s ongoing four-month rally is quite similar in magnitude to a previous surge that happened between the start of Q4 2023 and the end of Q1 2024. However, unlike that run, where funding rates became overheated, today’s futures funding levels remain near pre-rally lows.

“In the current rally, there has been no overheating in funding rates,” wrote CoinCare. “In fact, the current funding rates are closer to the levels seen before the October 2023 rally began.”

CoinCare believes this is a sign that “a cooldown after a short-term surge is essential,” following which ETH could “enter a full-fledged rally” driven by renewed speculative interest.

Beyond derivatives, fundamental and on-chain forces also support Ethereum’s potential breakout. For instance, heavyweight Ethereum investors recently acquired 220,000 ETH, worth an estimated $850 million, in just 48 hours. This boosted their holdings to 23.5% of the asset’s supply, a record high that should lessen market liquidity and amplify an upward push.

At the same time, spot ETH ETFs have attracted roughly $5 billion in just 17 days, adding steady demand from regulated investment vehicles. Meanwhile, exchange balances have plunged to a near-decade low of 19 million ETH, with more than 1 million coins withdrawn in the past month alone, potentially reducing immediate sell-side pressure.

Price Momentum

Looking at the market, ETH has gained 1.7% in the past 24 hours, 7.9% in the last week, and 57% across 30 days. It is currently trading within a tight $3,708 to $3,874 range, with $4,000 as the next key resistance level and $3,500 providing critical short-term support.

Analyst Ali Martinez believes going above $4,100 could trigger “the real breakout” for ETH, marking a major psychological shift and potentially opening the door for a run towards its 2021 all-time high.

Despite short-term warning signals, such as an overbought RSI and a potential pullback toward $3,300 highlighted in CryptoPotato’s latest analysis, the bigger on-chain picture remains decisively bullish. If CoinCare’s funding-rate thesis proves accurate and institutional demand continues to grow, ETH’s next chapter could be written not with caution but with new highs.

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FTX Stakes $79M in ETH, Whales Are Buying, BlackRock’s ETHA Keep Growing

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TL;DR

  • FTX staked $79M ETH after withdrawing $75M, signaling renewed activity from major crypto players.
  • BlackRock now holds 2.5% of all ETH, adding $375M more through its growing Ethereum ETF.
  • Eleven new whale wallets added 722K ETH since July, with most already staked for the long term.
  • Ethereum ETFs saw $5.41B in July inflows, beating combined gains from the last eleven months.

FTX Moves ETH From Bybit, Then Stakes It

On-chain data tracked by Lookonchain shows that FTX and Alameda Research staked 20,736 ETH, valued at around $79 million, within the past few hours. The move follows a previous withdrawal of 21,650 ETH from crypto exchange Bybit. That withdrawal, carried out between December 17, 2024, and January 9, 2025, totaled $75.3 million at an average price of $3,478 per ETH.

At the time of writing, ETH trades at $3,860. The price has increased 1% in the last 24 hours and 7% over the past seven days. These ETH transfers and staking actions add to a trend of growing market activity around the asset.

BlackRock and Other Firms Continue ETH Accumulation

BlackRock added $375 million in ETH to its holdings this week. The firm now controls about 2.5% of Ethereum’s total circulating supply, which translates to over $11.4 billion in ETH, based on current prices. 

In addition, the iShares Ethereum ETF, launched in 2024, has now acquired more than 3 million ETH, according to Nate Geraci’s recent post. Since July 12 alone, it has added another 1 million ETH.

The Ether Machine, a company focused on ETH accumulation, bought 15,000 ETH this week for $56.9 million. This brings its total ETH holdings to over 334,000. 

Meanwhile, it also confirmed that additional capital remains available for further ETH purchases. With this latest transaction, The Ether Machine now holds more ETH than the Ethereum Foundation.

SharpLink, a Nasdaq-listed company, made yet another purchase earlier today, adding 11,359 ETH, which brings its total to 449,276 (worth $1.73 billion). A significant portion of the newly acquired ETH has already been staked.

Whale Wallets Enter the Market With Billions in ETH

Eleven new wallets have acquired a total of 722,152 ETH, worth $2.77 billion, since July 9. Three of those wallets added 73,821 ETH, worth $283 million, in the past 24 hours. The data was tracked by Crypto Rover.

Most of these new wallets are staking their ETH. This reduces the circulating supply and signals long-hold strategies. These new holders are joining a broader trend of long-term ETH accumulation by large entities.

ETF Inflows Surge in July

As we recently reported, Ethereum ETFs brought in $5.41 billion in net inflows during July. That figure is higher than the $4.21 billion combined inflows from the 11 previous months. Since their launch in July 2024, ETH ETFs have received $9.62 billion.

Earlier in the year, flows were more uneven. The first quarter of 2025 saw low inflows and a brief outflow in March. By contrast, November and December 2024 saw stronger interest, with inflows of $1.05 billion and $2.08 billion, respectively.

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