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The economics of Bitcoin halving: Understanding the effects on price and market sentiment

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Bitcoin (BTC), the pioneering cryptocurrency that sparked a global revolution in digital assets, operates on a unique monetary policy. One of the defining features of Bitcoin is its halving event, which occurs approximately every four years.

This article will explore the economics behind Bitcoin’s halving, examining its effects on price movements and market sentiment. By understanding these factors, investors and enthusiasts can gain valuable insights into the cryptocurrency’s market behavior.

Related: How does the monetary supply affect cryptocurrencies?

What is a Bitcoin halving?

Bitcoin halving, also known as a “halvening,” refers to the predetermined reduction in the rate at which new BTC are created. It is programmed into the Bitcoin protocol and occurs every 210,000 blocks, which is roughly every four years. The halving event halves the block reward, reducing the number of newly minted Bitcoin awarded to miners.

Supply and demand dynamics

A Bitcoin halving directly impacts the supply and demand dynamics of the cryptocurrency. By reducing the rate at which new BTC enters the market, halving effectively reduces the available supply. As the supply decreases, assuming demand remains constant or increases, basic economic principles suggest that the price of Bitcoin should rise.

Supply and demand is the basic economic principle supporting a price increase in response to Bitcoin’s halving. The law of supply and demand states that prices tend to increase when a commodity’s supply declines, and demand either stays the same or rises. The Bitcoin halving slows the rate of new Bitcoin creation and market release.

As a result, there are fewer newly created BTC available for purchase. The diminished supply produces a scarcity effect, which might push the price upward if demand for Bitcoin stays the same or rises.

Bitcoin’s controlled supply is a key factor contributing to its value proposition. The total supply of Bitcoin is limited to 21 million coins, and the halving mechanism gradually reduces the rate at which new BTC are produced until the maximum supply is reached. This scarcity aspect, coupled with the increasing recognition and adoption of Bitcoin, can create a perception of limited availability and drive up demand, thereby impacting the price.

Historical price movements

Halving events have frequently been associated with increases in the price of Bitcoin, with significant upward momentum both before and after previous halvings. For example, during the 2012 halving, Bitcoin’s price soared from about $12 to over $200 in just one year. Similarly, Bitcoin experienced a stunning recovery after its 2016 price halving, reaching a high of about $19,700 in December 2017.

Following the most recent halving event in May 2020, Bitcoin’s price surged. Starting at $8,787 during the halving, the cryptocurrency experienced a remarkable rally, eventually reaching its all-time high of nearly $69,000 in November 2021.

Market attitude and investor perception

Bitcoin halving events often generate increased market attention and hype. Expectations of lower supply and likely price increases may fuel positive feelings among investors and traders. This optimism could result in higher demand for Bitcoin as traders try to profit from the expected price gain. As a result, a Bitcoin halving can result in the self-fulfilling prophecy of rising market sentiment and demand.

It is crucial to remember that during halving occurrences, market sentiment isn’t always favorable. Market participants may also experience FUD around the potential effects of a price halving. Short-term price swings and heightened volatility may result from this conflicting sentiment.

Impact on mining economics

The Bitcoin halving event may also impact mining economics. Block rewards and transaction fees are the primary sources of income for miners, which are essential to confirming transactions and safeguarding the Bitcoin network.

The decrease in block rewards caused by a halving event directly affects miner profitability. After a halving event, miners operating with increased expenses might find it less profitable to mine Bitcoin, which could result in a drop in mining activity.

Related: ‘Don’t short when it’s dark green’: How to trade the 2024 Bitcoin halving

Network security and long-term outlook

Bitcoin’s halving may initially impact mining economics, but it also plays a critical role in preserving the network’s long-term security and stability. Miners are encouraged to continue their activities and secure the network through transaction validation due to the carefully managed decline in block rewards.

The network becomes more robust and less dependent on freshly created currencies for security as the mining industry adapts to the decreased block rewards.

Collect this article as an NFT to preserve this moment in history and show your support for independent journalism in the crypto space.

Cryptocurrency

Analyst Predicts $3,500 Target for ETH as $2,800 Resistance Looms

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Ethereum (ETH) is back in the spotlight as analysts and traders eye a potential breakout past the stubborn $2,800 resistance, a level that has repeatedly halted upward momentum over the past month.

With growing institutional interest, regulatory clarity, and bullish social sentiment, some now believe a run toward $3,500 is within reach.

Momentum Meets a Wall

At the time of this writing, ETH was trading at around $2,775, marking a 9.1% gain in the last 24 hours and a more modest 6.2% increase over the past seven days, per data from CoinGecko.

While the asset slightly underperformed the broader crypto market’s 3.3% weekly growth, its recent rally comes on the back of a strong regulatory tailwind. On June 9, U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) Chair Paul Atkins declared staking and wallet software development outside the scope of securities laws, signaling a dramatic shift in the agency’s stance on decentralized finance (DeFi).

Yet despite the bullish news, the world’s second-largest cryptocurrency by market cap remains range-bound between $2,475 and $2,775. “The price has swept the highs and the lows… and has retested the range high for the 4th time now,” noted Daan Crypto Trades on X, advising patience until a decisive move occurs.

Market watcher Michaël van de Poppe echoed the sentiment, suggesting that a breakout past $2,800 could ignite a surge toward the $3,400 to $3,500 level, provided ETH holds above the critical $2,575 support zone.

Caution Amidst the Optimism

But not everyone is convinced the good times are coming just yet. Analyst Čyrus Ologun cautioned that ETH remains in a downtrend unless it closes decisively above the aforementioned $2,800, predicting a possible pullback to $2,200. His hypothesis aligns with CryptoPotato’s latest technical analysis, which flagged a bearish rising wedge pattern and growing selling pressure, as reflected in the declining 30-day Taker Buy-Sell Ratio.

Nonetheless, the fundamentals are improving. As angel investor Momin Saqib highlighted not long ago, Ethereum is enjoying “7 straight weeks of net inflows,” with over $815 million going into ETH ETFs in just 20 days, and a record 34.6 million ETH staked, which is roughly 28% of the total supply. Moreover, the SEC’s remarks have galvanized institutional conviction, with major players like BlackRock and Fidelity reportedly increasing ETH exposure.

While the asset’s all-time high of $4,878 remains a distant 45% away, the journey back toward that position could be kick-started by the convergence of regulatory clarity, institutional momentum, and increasing on-chain activity, with more than 16 million active addresses recorded so far this week. As pseudonymous trader Master of Crypto put it: “This isn’t just a price pump… People are actually using ETH.”

For now, the consensus seems to be that $2,800 is the line in the sand. A break above could open the floodgates to $3,000 and beyond.

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120,000,000 ADA in Just 2 Days: What Are Cardano Whales Preparing for?

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TL;DR

  • Large investors scooped up more than $85 million worth of ADA in the last two days.
  • The question now arises whether they are getting ready for a price pump, perhaps fueled by encouraging news on the ADA ETF front.

Stacking More ADA

The renowned analyst, going by the pseudonym Ali Martinez on X, disclosed that Cardano whales purchased more than 120 million ADA in the last 48 hours. The USD equivalent of the stash equals over $85 million (calculated at current rates). 

Martinez’s chart shows that the buying spree was conducted by investors holding between 100 million and 1 billion tokens. He also revealed that, as of the moment, they collectively own 3.14 billion ADA, or approximately 8% of the asset’s circulating supply.

The whales’ actions are usually closely monitored by smaller players who may decide to mimic the move and join the ADA ecosystem or increase their exposure. It is also a common theory (or at least a suspicion) that such large investors sometimes have inside information about vital events that can impact the price, which might explain their accumulation (or dumping) efforts. 

One development that Cardano proponents might be waiting for is the potential approval of the first spot ADA ETF in the United States. One of the companies with intentions to introduce this type of product is Grayscale. 

Just a few weeks ago, the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) delayed its decision on the fund until July 15, with its final “yes” or “no” expected to be announced before the October 22 deadline. 

At the start of the business week, the chances of approval (before the end of 2025) on Polymarket dropped to nearly 40%. However, over the past few hours, the odds briefly surged to 70% and currently stand at 66%.

ADA ETF Odds
ADA ETF Odds, Source: Polymarket

The improved chances come shortly after the SEC greenlighted a NASDAQ crypto US settlement price index, which includes numerous altcoins, such as ADA. 

Poised for an Uptrend?

Cardano’s native token currently trades at around $0.70, representing a 5% daily increase but an 11% decline over the past month. 

Nonetheless, important indicators suggest that a more substantial resurgence may be on the way. For instance, ADA’s exchange netflow has been predominantly negative in the past several months.

ADA Exchange Netflow
ADA Exchange Netflow, Source: CoinGlass

This suggests that many investors may have shifted from centralized platforms to self-custody methods, which reduces immediate selling pressure.

Meanwhile, some well-known analysts on X, including Lucky, have made bullish predictions about ADA’s future price. Those willing to explore that in detail can take a look at our article here.

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US Bitcoin Investors Are Buying Again: What Does This Mean for BTC’s Price?

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The cryptocurrency market is experiencing a surge in bitcoin (BTC) purchases from investors in the United States. This is a positive occurrence for the sector and could drive a sustained rally in bitcoin’s price.

According to a report from the market intelligence platform CryptoQuant, the Coinbase Premium index, which measures U.S. buyer appetite, has reached its highest level in over three months.

U.S. Investors Are Buying BTC

CryptoQuant analyst Dan revealed that the market has been in an upward trend for eight weeks, starting from mid-April. The surge in the Coinbase Premium shows that buying pressure from Bitcoin investors in the U.S. is supporting the uptrend.

Bitcoin’s movement has shown no signs of overheating. Dan says this is a typical sign often seen in rising cycles following corrections. This suggests that the crypto market will see optimistic movements as the bull cycle progresses in the second half of the year.

The increased buying pressure from U.S. investors is evident in the spot Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) market. Data from CoinGlass shows that six of the eleven U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded inflows that totaled $386.2 million during trading hours on Monday. The positive flows came after two consecutive days of outflows on Thursday and Friday last week.

Besides the positive ETF flows, another sign that buyers are dominating again is the Bitcoin Spot 90-day Cumulative Volume Delta (CVD) flashing green for the first time in four months. This metric measures market dominance between buyers and sellers. A separate CryptoQuant analysis disclosed that CVD turning green after a prolonged period in red could mark the start of a new bullish move.

New Whales Acquire BTC at Record Pace

Furthermore, CryptoQuant discovered that Bitcoin whales have been buying at an increased rate. A filter that isolated new whales from long-dormant cold investors found that a fresh cohort has been stacking BTC at a record pace. This cohort holds ≥ 1,000 BTC with an average coin age of less than six months.

Between March 1 and June 4, the holdings of this group of whales doubled, from approximately 500,000 BTC to around 1.1 million BTC. This shows an increase of at least 600,000 BTC worth roughly $63 billion. Additionally, their supply share has climbed from 2.5% to 5.6% of the total BTC circulating supply – this is equivalent to approximately ten months of mining output removed from circulation.

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