TL;DR

• Although bitcoin’s price tumbled by over 20% since its January all-time high and is currently nowhere near it, a crucial metric shows that the actual cycle peak is not here yet.
• In terms of entry prices, though, one analyst cautioned that the current levels might not be optimal.

No Peak Yet?

After hitting an all-time high on January 20 this year at over $109,000, bitcoin’s price started to lose value gradually until the end of the month and then nosedived following the global economic uncertainty prompted by US President Trump’s controversial approach.

The culmination came last week when BTC tumbled below $75,000 for the first time in five months. This meant that the asset had lost nearly $35,000 in less than three months.

This split the community into those who believe the bull market has come to a screeching halt and those who rely on history to be more optimistic, suggesting that such substantial corrections have occurred during all previous cycles. But there are only that—corrections, and BTC will persevere.

Ali Martinez, a crypto analyst with over 135,000 followers on X, brought another key metric that could support the latter. It still relies on historical performance, but it’s not focused on the technical aspects. Instead, it measures the retail activity as BTC tends to peak after a massive influx of such investors.

So far, there hasn’t been a big retail wave. This is evident from the lack of Google searches as well as the missing “retail activity through trading frequency surge.”

#Bitcoin $BTC market tops have historically aligned with surges in retail activity. The move from $70,000 to $110,000 lacked that, echoing the late 2021 setup. pic.twitter.com/rVJPUTpXZC

— Ali (@ali_charts) April 18, 2025

Martinez noted that the current cycle resembles the 2021 run when BTC peaked in April, only to break that high at the end of the year.

Don’t Rush to Buy

Although history suggests there might be more gains on the horizon for BTC, Martinez published another chart that suggests investors should maybe be more patient before allocating funds to the largest digital asset.

This is because of the Bitcoin Exchange inflow volume, a metric used to “spot strong entry points.”

#Bitcoin $BTC exchange inflow volume momentum is a key metric for spotting strong entry points. For now, it’s signaling patience. We’re still waiting for the right opportunity to step in. pic.twitter.com/NSS1fZcHMl

— Ali (@ali_charts) April 19, 2025

This essentially confirms a previous report by Glassnode, which read that the BTC market is now in a “wait-and-see” phase.

Bitcoin is slowly pushing higher, aiming to reclaim the 200-day moving average, but the price remains stuck below it. Considering the futures market sentiment, the next breakout or rejection could spark major volatility.

Technical Analysis

By Edris Derakhshi

The Daily Chart

As the daily chart suggests, BTC has managed to recover from the March sell-off and is now trading just below the 200 DMA, located around the $88K mark, which is acting as a strong dynamic resistance. The recent structure shows short-term higher highs and lows, but the price is still capped below the $88K level.

The buyers need a clean daily close above this zone and the 200-day moving average to open the door toward $92K and eventually, the $100K level. If the price gets rejected again, the $80K region will be key for maintaining a recovery structure.

The 4-Hour Chart

On the 4-hour timeframe, Bitcoin has broken above the long-term descending trendline and is consolidating just below the $86K–$88K supply zone. The structure shows higher highs and higher lows, indicating bullish momentum.

However, the price action has been choppy recently, with multiple rejections from the $86K area. The RSI is also gradually rising but hasn’t reached overbought yet, meaning bulls still have fuel, but they need to show conviction. A confirmed breakout above $88K could trigger a fast rally in the coming weeks.

Sentiment Analysis

By Edris Derakhshi

Open Interest

Looking at the futures market sentiment metrics, the open interest is climbing again, now sitting around $28B as the price hovers around the $85K mark. This rising OI trend suggests growing speculative activity in the derivatives market.

Historically, sharp increases in OI during sideways or slightly bullish price action often precede major volatility. If the market breaks higher, the stacked long positions could fuel a squeeze to the upside. But if resistance holds and price reverses, a long liquidation cascade is likely. Either way, the next major move will likely be amplified by this buildup in leverage.

While market volatility pressures Bitcoin mining firms to liquidate assets for survival, Tether is charting a different course.

In fact, the stablecoin giant has significantly deepened its involvement in the Bitcoin mining sector through a series of bold initiatives.

Bitcoin Mining and Beyond

According to a recent SEC filing, Tether has increased its stake in Bitcoin mining firm Bitdeer to 21%, capitalizing on a dip in the company’s stock price. The move marks a continued push into the mining industry, where traditional players are struggling amid stagnant BTC prices and waning investor confidence.

In a separate development this week, Tether announced plans to deploy its existing and future hashrate on OCEAN, a decentralized mining pool spearheaded by veteran Bitcoin Core developer Luke Dashjr. The company intends to implement OCEAN’s DATUM Gateway across its global mining operations, in a bid to optimize low-latency connections and generate unique block templates directly at mining sites.

This initiative is particularly focused on boosting operations in underserved regions, including rural areas in Africa. The rollout not only ensures global competitiveness through technological innovation but also aligns with Tether’s growing footprint in Africa, which includes investments in both digital infrastructure and educational programs.

In a statement, Tether CEO Paolo Ardoino said,

“As a company committed to financial freedom and open access, we see supporting decentralization in Bitcoin mining as essential to the network’s long-term integrity. Deploying hashrate to OCEAN aligns with both our mining investments and our broader mission to fortify Bitcoin against centralizing forces.”

Tether Backs Fizen’s Blockchain Infrastructure

Alongside its efforts in Bitcoin mining, Tether also announced a strategic investment in Fizen Limited, a fintech company focused on self-custody crypto wallets and digital payment solutions.

Through this partnership, Fizen aims to strengthen its blockchain infrastructure, to allow for smoother integration of stablecoins across diverse blockchain networks. The initiative is expected to improve user experience by offering a more streamlined and inclusive way to store, transfer, and transact with stablecoins, without the barriers of complex documentation or restricted access.