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This Declining Major Bitcoin Metric Hints at Upcoming BTC Bull Run: Details

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TL;DR

  • Bitcoin soared to around $67,400, with some metrics suggesting potential for further gains.
  • However, some bearish signals, such as an overvalued MVRV ratio and overbought RSI, indicate a possible price pullback.

BTC Price Explosion Incoming?

The price of the leading cryptocurrency surged by over eight grand in the past week, currently trading at around $67,400 (per CoinGecko’s data). The rally fueled huge enthusiasm among BTC proponents, many of whom assumed that “Uptober” was finally here.

BTC Price
BTC Price, Source: CoinGecko

Some important indicators signal that the asset has yet to witness substantial gains. One example is the BTC supply stored on exchanges, which, according to X user Ali Martinez, has tumbled to a five-year low. 

Such a development is generally considered bullish since it suggests that holders might be shifting from centralized platforms to self-custody methods (which reduces the immediate selling pressure). Moreover, fundamental economic principles dictate that BTC’s price should head north if demand remains constant or increases while the available supply drops.

A metric hinting that BTC could be ahead of a more volatile period is the growing Open Interest. As CryptoPotato reported on October 15, the figure reached an all-time high of $19.8 billion. It kept rising in the following hours, surpassing $20 billion on October 16 (per CryptoQuant’s data).

The rise of OI is combined with BTC funding rates that have hit their highest positive levels in the past two months. This indicates that most of the open interest is comprised of long positions, which, combined with the growing demand reported by CryptoQuant’s CEO, reaffirms the narrative about a potential rally. 

Some Bearish Factors

Contrary to the aforementioned indicators suggesting that the primary cryptocurrency could experience another bullish momentum soon, some hint at the opposite scenario.

BTC’s MVRV (Market Value to Realized Value), for instance, has been gradually increasing in the past week, crossing the critical ratio of 2. Readings above that mark typically show that the asset could be overvalued and poised for a pullback.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is next on the list. This technical analysis tool measures the speed and change of price movements and is commonly used to identify overbought or oversold conditions. When the ratio is above 70, it indicates that BTC is in overbought territory, meaning a correction could be imminent. The RSI has been hovering above that level in the past three days. 

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3 Possible Reasons Behind Ripple’s (XRP) 15% Surge Past $1.6

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Ripple’s native token has been among the best performers in the crypto market in the past few days, surging by over 60% since last Saturday. Despite retracing below $1.6, it reached that level for the first time since May of 2021.

Here are some of the possible reasons behind this impressive increase.

XRPUSD. Source: TradingView
XRPUSD. Source: TradingView

WisdomTree’s Ripple ETP

The Europe-based crypto asset manager WisdomTree has launched its latest exchange-traded product tracking the performance of a certain cryptocurrency, this time Ripple’s XRP.

The announcement reads that the WisdomTree Physical XRP ETP, with the ticker WXRP, is already live for trading on SIX Swiss exchange in USD and Swiss francs, on Euronext Amsterdam in USD, and on Xetra and Euronext Paris in euros.

“With risk-on sentiment building, altcoin exposures like XRP could outperform a standard bitcoin and ether allocation. XRP can sit alongside these mega caps in a multi-asset portfolio and reduce investors’ exposure to a single token.

Cryptocurrencies represent more than 1 per cent of the market portfolio, and should, therefore, be a component of a well-rounded investment strategy. As an asset class with low correlation to traditional asset classes, crypto can help enhance diversification and potentially improve risk-adjusted returns in a multi-asset portfolio.” – Commented the company’s Digital Assets Research Director, Dovile Silenskyte.

Gensler’s Exit

Perhaps the most valid reason behind XRP’s increase to over $1.6 earlier today is the hype by Gary Gensler’s announcement from Thursday evening. At the time, the current SEC chair said he would leave his position on the day the president-elect, Donald Trump, is inaugurated on January 20, 2025.

Although the move was expected, given Trump’s previous promise to fire Gensler on day 1 and the fact that SEC chairs have typically left their positions after a change in the presidency, it still sent shockwaves in the crypto industry.

Due to the four-year battle between the agency and Ripple, the latter’s native token skyrocketed by over 25% within the first 12 hours after the news broke. XRP went from about $1.15 to over $1.4. However, its rally continued on the next day, as mentioned above, and Gensler’s exit remains a highly plausible reason.

Regulatory Change and ETF Hopes

Gensler quitting the SEC is only a part of the overall wave of changes that will hit the US regulators after the Republicans take office. Reports are emerging frequently these days claiming that Trump has picked pro-crypto candidates for numerous key positions in his upcoming administration.

This is also regarded bullish for the entire market, which has added more than $1.2 trillion since the elections on November 5. XRP is no exception as, alongside other assets like Solana (SOL), is expected to have its own exchange-traded fund in the US. There have been a few filings with US regulators since September and experts believe the resolution could be just months away.

With a more favorable guard at the SEC, that resolution could be quite positive for the XRP army. After all, Ripple’s CEO has frequently noted that an XRP ETF is ‘inevitable.’

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Here’s What Users Expect as Donald Trump Begins Tenure as Crypto President: Bybit

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It’s been barely a few weeks since the pro-crypto candidate Donald Trump won the United States presidential elections, and the digital asset market still feels the impact of that victory. As the Trump administration prepares to take complete charge of affairs at the White House by January, crypto users anticipate what this could mean for the industry.

According to a quarterly institution report by the digital asset exchange Bybit and the crypto research firm Blocks Scholes, market participants are expecting a transformative period in the industry, with a focus on areas like heightened institutional interest, regulatory reforms, and increased value for bitcoin (BTC) and altcoins.

Trump to Provide Regulatory Clarity

Trump was previously a crypto skeptic, but he eventually turned around and centered his 2024 campaign on advocating for BTC. The U.S. president has declared that he would create clear policy and regulatory frameworks for digital assets to ensure the United States takes a leadership position in the crypto space.

Bybit and Blocks Scholes said Trump’s re-emergence as America’s first crypto president could foster an environment more conducive to innovation. Trump wants to make the U.S. the crypto capital of the planet, and his goals align with those of digital asset stakeholders.

The crypto space will likely see significant regulatory changes with a Republican majority in both chambers of the U.S. Congress. The Bybit report revealed that targeted political spending by crypto entities during the election reshaped legislative priorities, especially in key Senate races.

As pro-crypto lawmakers take office, bills like the Financial Innovation and Technology for the 21st Century Act (FIT21 Act), which aimed to provide regulatory certainty for digital assets, could be enacted into law. The bill faced legislative challenges while passing Congress chambers.

Favorable Environment For Altcoins And DeFi

Furthermore, Trump’s win increases the potential for altcoins to gain traction even as BTC continues to dominate the market narrative. The incoming administration may cause investors to show fresh interest in the decentralized finance (DeFi) sector and networks powered by smart contracts.

The Biden administration took an unfavorable stance toward DeFi and even took legal action against some decentralized entities. However, as regulatory clarity emerges, Trump’s presidency could attract increased investment in these platforms.

Meanwhile, BTC has already gained over 47% since Trump won. With the cryptocurrency about 2% away from the $100,000 mark, traders are optimistic of a continued rally in the coming months.

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Double-Digit Price Surges From These Altcoins as BTC Was Stopped Before $100K (Weekend Watch)

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Bitcoin tried and tried to break into a six-digit price territory but was stopped just inches below $100,000 and has been pushed south by around a grand.

Its dominance over the alts has slumped in the past day, as many, such as DOGE, ADA, AVAX, and DOT, have charted double-digit surges.

BTC Fails at $100K

Bitcoin had a highly positive business week, which started with a price surge to over $90,000 on Monday. After a brief retracement, the bulls returned and helped BTC chart a new all-time high of $94,000 on Tuesday.

However, that was just the start as the asset kept climbing and broke above $95,000, $96,000, $97,000, $98,000, and $99,000 by Friday.

Naturally, all eyes turned to the coveted $100,000 target, which many speculated could be broken immediately. However, the bears managed to defend that level well. As such, bitcoin failed to overcome it on Friday, even though it came just $250 away from it.

Since then, the cryptocurrency has corrected slightly and now sits below $99,000. Nevertheless, its market cap is still above $1.950 trillion, placing it as the seventh-largest asset in the world, but its dominance over the alts has taken a big hit and is down to 56% on CG.

Bitcoin/Price/Chart 23.11.2024. Source: TradingView
Bitcoin/Price/Chart 23.11.2024. Source: TradingView

Alts on the Rise

The declining BTC dominance means only one thing – alts are exploding. While that cannot be said about ETH, SOL, and BNB, other larger caps have charted mind-blowing surges in the past day.

As already reported, these include XRP, DOGE, and ADA, all of which have shot up to multi-year peaks. The landscape is similar for Avalanche and Polkadot, as they have skyrocketed by 22% each. AVAX now sits close to $44, while DOT is near $7.5.

Even more notable surges come from XLM (52%), ALGO (33%), and VET (31%).

The total crypto market cap reached a new all-time high earlier at over $3.5 trillion on CG.

Cryptocurrency Market Overview. Source: Coin360
Cryptocurrency Market Overview. Source: QuantifyCrypto
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Disclaimer: Information found on CryptoPotato is those of writers quoted. It does not represent the opinions of CryptoPotato on whether to buy, sell, or hold any investments. You are advised to conduct your own research before making any investment decisions. Use provided information at your own risk. See Disclaimer for more information.

Cryptocurrency charts by TradingView.

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