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This Is How BTC Could Hit $150K 14 Months Post-Halving, According to Bitfinex

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Bitcoin (BTC) could rally 160%, hitting $150,000 14 months after the halving takes place, according to analysts’ predictions in the latest edition of the Bitfinex Alpha report.

Bitfinex used a simplistic and straightforward regression model that projects diminishing returns by analyzing the effects of previous halvings on the price of BTC. However, this model did not consider BTC reaching a new all-time high pre-halving; hence, the cryptocurrency’s post-halving price increase may exceed 160%.

The Upcoming Halving Event

The halving occurs every four years or after 210,000 blocks and is currently slated for April 20. The mechanism slashes Bitcoin block rewards by 50% and will reduce the current figure from 6.25 BTC to 3.125 BTC. It decreases the rate at which new coins are produced to ensure a diminishing supply over time.

Historically, bitcoin’s value has increased post-halving due to sustained or increased demand, but the level of growth in this cycle may be different due to the asset recording a new all-time before the event took place for the first time.

Although this factor could be seen as a bullish indicator, analysts said it has also introduced a level of uncertainty into the market dynamics, highlighting the need for a more nuanced understanding of market conditions and their potential impact on Bitcoin’s future price movements.

Bitcoin Could Rally 160%

Bitcoin rose 9,300% from $12 to $1,161, 396 days, or roughly 13 months after the 2012 halving. The asset experienced another dramatic growth in 2017, surging 2,800% from $600 to $20,000 approximately 17 months after the 2016 halving. Three years ago, the effects of the 2020 halving pushed BTC up 700% from $9,000 to $69,000, roughly 11 months after the event.

Based on the analysis, BTC is expected to rise 160% within 420 days, or 14 months after the next halving. This offers a guideline for the expectations of Bitcoin’s post-halving market behavior.

“This estimation aligns with the observed trend of diminishing percentage increases following each halving event. With a conservative estimate placing the price of BTC at between $57,000 and $65,000 at the time of the halving, a 160 percent price increase would lead to BTC price ranging from approximately $150,000 to $169,000 at the peak of the cycle,” Bitfinex stated.

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Cryptocurrency

Bitcoin Price Analysis: Is New ATH Next for BTC After Surging Past $100K?

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Bitcoin has just broken above the $100K psychological level for the first time in months, and the momentum has shifted clearly in favor of the buyers.

With the price climbing sharply and on-chain metrics aligning, the current leg suggests bullish continuation, but there are still some key levels to monitor.

Technical Analysis

The Daily Chart

On the daily timeframe, BTC has pushed through the $100K resistance level and is now hovering around the $103K mark. This breakout came after a clean reclaim of both the 100-day and 200-day moving averages and a retest of the ascending trendline that’s been respected over the last months.

Moreover, the RSI is firmly in overbought territory, currently above 75, indicating strong bullish momentum, although it also warns of a possible short-term cooldown. If the breakout is sustained, the next visible resistance level will be around $108K, while the $99K zone will now act as a new key support.

The 4-Hour Chart

Investigating the 4H-chart, we can see the breakout from a rising wedge that had been forming for over a week. Price first broke above the $97K–$98K range, and exploded toward the $103K area.

Momentum indicators like RSI confirm strength, although we now see early signs of short-term exhaustion. This suggests a possible retest of the breakout zone around $100K or even $98K before continuation. Yet, as of now, the overall structure favors further upside unless the $96K–$97K zone fails to hold.

Onchain Analysis

Exchange Reserve

From an on-chain perspective, exchange reserves continue to plunge, making a new multi-year low. This ongoing decline reinforces the long-term bullish thesis: less BTC available on exchanges typically reflects accumulation behavior and reduced selling pressure.

It also suggests that long-term holders are not eager to offload their coins even at these high levels. The macro trend of shrinking exchange balances supports the current breakout and adds confidence to the sustainability of the rally, even if we get short-term pullbacks.

 

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Disclaimer: Information found on CryptoPotato is those of writers quoted. It does not represent the opinions of CryptoPotato on whether to buy, sell, or hold any investments. You are advised to conduct your own research before making any investment decisions. Use provided information at your own risk. See Disclaimer for more information.

Cryptocurrency charts by TradingView.

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Cryptocurrency

Bitcoin Bull Score Jumps to 80 as Spot Demand Fuels Optimism

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After months of price malaise, Bitcoin (BTC) is roaring back, having climbed past $103,000 today and signaling a shift in market sentiment.

According to CryptoQuant, the catalyst is a massive surge in spot demand, which has propelled Bitcoin’s Bull Score Index from a bearish 20 to a blazing 80, indicating one of the most bullish readings in over a year.

Market Sentiment Shift

The index comprises ten key on-chain metrics, including liquidity, network activity, and market inflows. Historically, flows above 60 have been associated with sustained rallies, while those below 40 have often signaled bear markets.

As recently as April 7, data from CryptoQuant shows Bitcoin’s Bull Score was languishing at 10, with prices struggling below $80,000. However, a steady climb in spot demand, fueled by ETF inflows and institutional interest, revitalized the market.

By April 26, the score had hit 40 as BTC reclaimed the $94,000 level, and this week’s jump to 80 comes alongside the crypto asset smashing through $100,000 for the first time since February.

Supporting this thesis, analytics firm Santiment recently reported that more than 344,000 new wallets had been created on the Bitcoin network over the past week, as retail FOMO kicked in. Such growth has often been witnessed during previous cycle tops, suggesting a wider demographic is now buying into BTC.

CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju acknowledged the importance of the shift, posting on X earlier today:

“Two months ago, I said the bull cycle was over, but I was wrong… selling pressure is easing, and massive inflows are coming through ETFs.”

Ju noted that traditional sell-pressure triggers, like whale dumps, are now being offset by institutional demand. The relentless acquisition of Bitcoin by corporations like Strategy, spot ETFs, and even government interest, including the signing off on a national Bitcoin Strategic Reserve by U.S. President Donald Trump, has introduced unprecedented liquidity, making past cycle models less reliable.

“It’s time to throw out that cycle theory,” said the analyst. “The market is merging with TradFi, and institutional liquidity is overpowering traditional sell-off patterns.”

A Rally From April Lows

Meanwhile, price action tells its own story. Bitcoin is currently trading at $103,260, up some 3.5% in the last 24 hours. The asset has also rallied 33.7% over the past 30 days, while year-on-year, it’s increased almost 70%.

However, despite the impressive rebound, BTC still sits 5.2% below its all-time high of roughly $109,000 from earlier in the year.

Furthermore, Bitcoin’s 6.6% uptick across the week means that despite dominating altcoins with a 60.5% share of the sector, its performance lags slightly behind the broader crypto market, which grew 8.8% in the last week.

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Orderly Announces Retroactive 2.3M $esORDER Available to Claim for Solana Traders

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[PRESS RELEASE – Singapore, Republic of Singapore, May 9th, 2025]

Web3 liquidity layer Orderly has announced retroactive escrowed $ORDER tokens for Solana users. Traders who have used any Orderly-powered DEX on Solana will automatically earn the retrospective trading rewards, with more than 2.3M $esORDER (escrowed $ORDER) available to claim.

Traders who used any Orderly-powered DEX on Solana who visit Orderly’s Trading Rewards page can connect their wallet and claim their retroactive rewards. After claiming their share of 2.3M $esORDER, Solana users can elect to stake their tokens to participate in the $ORDER staking program or vest their $esORDER and convert it to $ORDER at a later date.

The retroactive $esORDER incentive has been accompanied by the launch of Orderly’s staking program on Solana. This allows Solana users to stake Orderly’s native token and receive trading rewards for fees accrued across its omnichain liquidity layer. The introduction of $ORDER staking on Solana allows network users to utilize their tokens to earn yield while supporting the growth of Orderly’s cross-chain trading infrastructure.

Orderly’s decision to launch its popular staking program on Solana follows the integration of its shared order book on the network earlier this year. This has allowed Solana traders and trading protocols to gain access to deep liquidity procured from across the omnichain landscape, including EVM networks. Orderly’s liquidity layer is now powering leading Solana DEXs, including Raydium.

Orderly CEO Ran Yi said, “Bit by bit, we’re breaking down the barriers that separate Solana from the Ethereum ecosystem. First by bringing our cross-chain orderbook to Solana, and now by following suit with $esORDER rewards to Orderly traders and the launch of $ORDER staking. This means that Solana users can now capture the upside to Orderly’s growing trading volume, both on their own chain and on the long tail of EVM networks that Orderly supports.”

The $ORDER staking program, which redirects 60% of all Orderly fees to holders who stake the native token, has proven extremely popular since its inception. More than 4,200 active stakers currently share in a portion of the more than $10M in fees that have been generated to date.

Through staking their tokens on Solana, $ORDER holders can earn a pro rata share of protocol fees generated not just on Solana but across all of the networks Orderly supports. Solana users who participate in the program will be eligible for a share of the same rewards pool currently open to EVM stakers while benefiting from Solana’s low fee environment.

The introduction of $ORDER staking on Solana reinforces Orderly’s commitment to building within the Solana ecosystem. Through supplying the liquidity for decentralized exchanges to offer superior pricing, Orderly aims to become the network’s preeminent DeFi solution for unified liquidity.

Solana users can now stake their native $ORDER tokens at https://app.orderly.network/staking, while $esORDER rewards will continue to be distributed to Solana traders using Orderly DEXs on a fortnightly basis.

About Orderly

Orderly is the infrastructure that lets people trade anything, anywhere via a permissionless liquidity layer that delivers deep, unified liquidity across all blockchains through a single orderbook. Orderly ensures robust liquidity across major chains such as Solana, Sonic, Arbitrum, Base, Mantle, Ethereum Mainnet, OP, and Polygon, and grants traders and exchanges access to over 100 markets through their unified trading infrastructure.

Learn more: https://orderly.network/

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