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US gov’t messed up my $250K Bitcoin price prediction: Tim Draper, Hall of Flame

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Tim Draper is a prominent venture capitalist, the founder of Draper University and the creator of the Meet The Drapers television series. He invested early in Tesla, SpaceX and Coinbase and has 254,000 followers on X.

“Let me get my second prediction to actually happen, and then we’ll move on to other predictions,” Tim Draper tells Hall of Flame, refusing to be drawn on price predictions for XRP and Ethereum.

This makes sense, given it’s been six years since he forecast that Bitcoin would reach $250,000 by 2022.

Spoiler alert: It didn’t.

Which is not to say it won’t happen eventually, as Draper has been pretty far-sighted in the past.

Back in 2014, Draper scooped up around 30,000 Bitcoin for $19 million after the U.S. Marshals took down Silk Road. Fast forward to today, and those Bitcoin have increased 4,165% in value to be worth a whopping $810.5 million.

Around the same time, he made a prediction that Bitcoin would reach $10,000 in three years, and lo and behold, it hit that mark in 2017.

Draper explains that he only dropped the $250,000 prediction because people kept asking after he totally nailed his first Bitcoin price guess.

“The only reason I’ve given the second prediction was that the first one was so good. I had a lot of pressure to put another one out there,” Draper declares.

He has politely requested a deadline extension on Bitcoin reaching a quarter of a million, with a timeline that would give a university lecturer a heart attack.

“Give me until the end of June next year,” he says.

Draper accuses the U.S. government of messing up his price prediction. He had expected the growth of blockchain to be reminiscent of the internet era, similar to when he made his earlier investments in companies like Hotmail and Skype.

He emphasizes the significant benefit that the United States reaped by maintaining a hands-off approach to overregulating the internet.

“I expected a much more light touch, the way Bill Clinton was with the internet; they said, hey, we got the internet! We regulated the internet, and Bill Clinton smartly left it alone, and it was fantastic for the whole world.”

Investing Alpha

Despite the media coverage, Draper doesn’t spend his days making predictions; in fact, his schedule is quite packed.

At 65 years old, he remains highly active, renowned as a serial investor who chucked cash early in companies like Tesla, SpaceX, Coinbase, and, well … Theranos.

He enjoys playing basketball because it energizes him and puts him in an investment mindset.

“When I play basketball, I’m thinking about how I can get the defender to move one way, and then I’ll move another,” he explains.

Draper claims he possesses alpha instincts both on the basketball court and in the investment world.

“I’m very aggressive; if I see something I like, I go right after it,” he says.

“I guess as an investor, I invest like a chess move because I’m always evaluating not just the entrepreneur or the idea. But what happens if it’s successful? how great could it be? What does the world look like then?”

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What led to Twitter Fame?

Draper started with a very modest Twitter following.

“I think I had one Twitter follower, and it was my mother,” he jokes.

While you might assume that one of Draper’s investments or media appearances helped his following to skyrocket, he describes his growth as very natural, attributing it to the content he has been consistently posting over the years, which has kept people coming back for more.

He is proud of how “truly organic” his following is.

“I think I have the most steady increase of Twitter followers of any influencer,” he declares.

What type of content can people expect?

Draper isn’t here to clutter up his followers’ feeds with nonsense.

He’s all about adding a little sprinkle of value to their lives, and he sticks to only posting about three times a week.

“I tend to post where it’s something I feel like people should see or where one of my startups has done something extraordinary, and I want to promote them,” he explains.

What content does Tim Draper like?

Within the 2,400 accounts he follows on Twitter, he relies on a select group of trusted people to keep him informed about the crypto industry.

Among his trusted crew are Gemini founders Cameron and Tyler Winklevoss, Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong, Ripple co-founder Chris Larsen and Silicon Valley investors Brad and Bart Stephens.

Tim Draper predictions

Draper is backing his 250,000 Bitcoin prediction so hard that if it doesn’t hit, he’ll bow out of predictions altogether.

“If it’s not $250,000 or higher, then don’t listen to me ever again on that kind of prediction,” he laughs.

When questioned about the chances of a Bitcoin ETF getting approved, he doesn’t sound hopeful.

“It might have to wait for [Republican candidate] Nikki Haley to be president,” he declares.

“Maybe it’s the cushy relationship they have with banks, maybe it’s the fact that they have uncertainty about it. Maybe a lot of our government is pretty old, maybe they’re just out of touch. But they’re missing something very, very important for the good of society, and I’m hoping they all come around.”

Ciaran Lyons

Ciaran Lyons is an Australian crypto journalist. He’s also a standup comedian and has been a radio and TV presenter on Triple J, SBS and The Project.

Cryptocurrency

Something Funky Has Been Happening to the Bitcoin Markets Since 2021: Details

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The number of Bitcoin (BTC) deposit addresses on exchanges has dropped sharply. Such a pattern points to a deepening long-term conviction among investors.

Data reveals a dramatic reversal in behavior that began after the 2021 cycle peak. Between 2015 and 2021, the number of unique addresses depositing BTC to exchanges steadily increased, averaging 180,000 annually. However, since 2022, that trend has not only stalled, but it has declined consistently.

BTC Exchange Deposit Trend Reverses

According to CryptoQuant’s latest analysis, the 10-year average now stands at approximately 90,000, while the current 30-day moving average is just 48,000. On a daily basis, the number of depositing addresses has dropped to around 37,000, recording a multi-year low. Analysts say that this indicates a growing preference for holding Bitcoin rather than trading it.

The launch of spot Bitcoin ETFs has played a key role, which gave institutional and retail investors access to BTC’s price performance without needing to move or manage the asset directly. Additionally, lower retail trading activity in the current cycle has reduced active deposit behavior.

At the same time, an increasing number of investors, and even corporations, are adopting a savings-oriented approach, treating Bitcoin as a long-term reserve rather than a speculative instrument.

The report said,

“These shifts, which have emerged gradually over time, are precisely what drive Bitcoin’s evolving identity in financial markets. It may well be this transformation that ultimately solidifies BTC’s role as a store of value.”

This sentiment in investor behavior is echoed on a macro scale.

Bitcoin As Modern Reserve Asset

Bitcoin is increasingly seen as a strategic asset for nations seeking to strengthen economic resilience in the current global landscape, according to a recent report by CoinShares. The cryptocurrency’s potential to hedge inflation, diversify sovereign portfolios, and offer protection against geopolitical instability positions it as a modern complement to gold and foreign exchange reserves.

While the US decision in 2025 to add Bitcoin to its reserves is a crucial moment, CoinShares noted that the ongoing skepticism among economists who highlight its volatility and speculative nature.

Despite this, with rising global debt, inflation, and mounting geopolitical tensions, more governments are exploring alternatives. Brazil’s RESBit proposal and Russia’s reported interest in Bitcoin reserves suggest a competitive push to secure a share of the asset’s fixed supply. With a $2 trillion market cap and growing institutional presence, Bitcoin is increasingly viewed as a credible reserve option alongside traditional holdings.

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Shocking Amount of BTC Absorbed by Buyers During Recent Market Turmoil

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Bitcoin (BTC) has once again surged past $105,000, propelled by the easing of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East; however, an even more noteworthy story lies beneath the surface: the market has absorbed a colossal wave of profit taking without collapsing.

About 720,000 BTC, sold mainly by recent buyers since mid-April, has been met with an equally strong demand, preventing a more resounding crash despite a $66 billion surge in the Realized Cap of coins held for less than one month.

Profit-Taking Meets Fresh Demand

According to on-chain analyst Axel Adler Jr., the $66 billion increase in Realized Cap for the 0-1 month cohort since April 13 is definitive proof of large-scale profit realization by short-term holders.

While such aggressive selling pressure would typically trigger significant downside, Adler highlighted a critical counterforce: new buyers entering the market have been steadily absorbing this massive supply.

In his opinion, this offsetting has kept Bitcoin trading within a relatively narrow range in the last few weeks.

However, his UTXO Block Profit/Loss Count Ratio Model indicates the profit-taking frenzy may have subsided, dropping from an extreme 34,000 points near BTC’s all-time high in May to just 216 points today.

“Profitable sales have almost disappeared,” noted Adler, while the proportion of loss-realizing transactions has increased. The likeliest explanation is that the wave of eager sellers has largely passed, replaced by buyers accumulating at lower levels, reducing the immediate risk of a sharp crash.

Meanwhile, the global markets are experiencing a sense of relief thanks to an unexpected ceasefire between Israel and Iran. U.S. President Donald Trump confirmed a “Complete and Total” cessation of hostilities, quelling fears of a deeper conflict.

Following that, investors like Daan Crypto Trades and Michaël van de Poppe echoed cautious optimism on X, pointing out that reduced geopolitical risk could ease headline-driven volatility and help Bitcoin regain upward momentum.

What’s Next for Bitcoin?

Indeed, BTC has staged a noticeable recovery since dipping below the symbolic $100,000 mark after the U.S. unleashed airstrikes against several Iranian nuclear installations last week. As of this writing, the king cryptocurrency had climbed 3.8% in the last 24 hours to hover around $105,400 after going as high as $105,927 during the Asian trading session.

On a weekly scale, it remains slightly underwater, down about 1.1%, which is a modest underperformance compared to the broader crypto market’s 0.4% gain over the same period.

The asset also experienced a slight 1.7% dip over the last 30 days, reflecting recent liquidation cascades and historical Q3 headwinds. As analyst Benjamin Cowen previously highlighted, Bitcoin often struggles through the summer months. Past bull cycles saw steep drops of 25–35% between June and July before roaring back in late Q4.

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Nano Labs Bets $500M on Binance Coin (BNB) as Treasury

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Nano Labs, a Nasdaq-listed crypto infrastructure company, has announced a $500 million convertible note deal that it will use to acquire BNB as a strategic treasury reserve.

The Hong Kong-based firm, known for designing crypto mining chips, is targeting up to $1 billion worth of BNB, which will eventually put its holding at between 5% and 10% of the token’s entire circulating supply.

BNB Ecosystem Integration

The company’s aggressive move represents a major strategic pivot. It previously focused on Bitcoin (BTC), adopting it as a reserve asset and buying $5.5 million worth of the cryptocurrency late last year.

According to a press release, funding for the BNB accumulation will be provided through convertible notes that mature in 360 days. After that, they’ll be converted into Nano Labs shares at $20 each.

Applauding the initiative, Binance founder Changpeng Zhao clarified that none of his “affiliated entities” participated in the fundraiser, though he remains “extremely supportive.”

Nano Labs is also planning to apply for Hong Kong stablecoin licenses and has specifically mentioned building frameworks for Bitcoin and BNB.

The two developments suggest a cohesive strategy by the firm to position itself at the heart of Hong Kong’s burgeoning regulated crypto market, leveraging the recently passed Stablecoins Bill, which is set to become effective at the beginning of August.

Market Reaction

Since the announcement, Nano Labs’ stock has skyrocketed 163% in pre-market trading according to Google Finance, signaling intense investor interest.

However, the immediate impact on the price of BNB has been more measured. As of this writing, the token had seen a 3.3% increase in the 24 hours following the disclosure, to trade around $638. Nonetheless, this uptick occurred against a backdrop of recent weakness. BNB has been down 2.5% over the past seven days and 3.5% in the last month, underperforming the global crypto market, which is up a slight 0.10% weekly.

Furthermore, technical analysis prior to the news breaking indicated BNB was in a downtrend since being rejected at the $692 resistance in late May, with critical support levels at $630 and $600.

While the Nano Labs commitment provides fundamental support, BNB may still face an uphill battle to reclaim its bullish momentum and challenge its all-time high of $788.84, reached just seven months ago in December 2024.

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