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US Inflation Rises Again, Could Hawkish Fed Pivot Curb Crypto Bull Market?

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Economic data released in the United States on Wednesday has raised red flags as Core PCE inflation has increased to 2.8% for October.

The Personal Consumption Expenditures report reflects the average amount of money consumers spend monthly and is used by central bank policymakers as their primary inflation gauge.

“The Fed’s worst nightmare is officially here,” exclaimed the Kobeissi Letter, which added that this week’s data confirms that all three inflation metrics are back on the rise.

Compounding Inflation

These reports have been indicating a rising cost of living in the US since July, and now all three inflation gauges are increasing as well, it revealed.

“For the first time since February 2022, Core CPI, PCE, and PPI inflation are now rising at the SAME time.”

It added that the clear “elephant in the room” is that inflation has leveled off above the Fed’s 2% target.

Kobeissi added that the Core CPI has been above 3% for 42 consecutive months, the longest streak since the early 1990s, “which effectively means we have compounding inflation.”

President-elect Donald Trump’s proposed tariffs on China, Canada, and Mexico could also increase consumer prices and push inflation back up.

This week, Goldman Sachs economists predicted that tariffs would directly impact Personal Consumption Expenditures.

“Using our rule of thumb that every 1% increase in the effective tariff rate would raise core PCE by 0.1%, we estimate that the proposed tariff increases would boost core PCE prices by 0.9% if implemented,” they wrote.

Impact on Crypto

Increasing inflation means the Federal Reserve could pivot back to a hawkish stance in halting interest rate reductions or even increasing rates again.

After starting rate cuts with a 50 basis point cut for the first time in 2008, the Fed is now worried with chair Jerome Powell, who recently said the central banks were “not in a hurry” to cut rates.

High interest rates are usually bad news for risk-on assets such as crypto since lower-risk cash-related investments become more attractive. Additionally, higher rates mean lower liquidity and excess money for investing as there is less borrowing.

Nevertheless, crypto markets continued to march higher this week, with total capitalization hitting $3.5 trillion again, primarily driven by Ethereum and altcoins.

The bullish momentum from a new pro-crypto administration and major institutional acceptance and investment could be enough to overcome a hawkish pivot by the US central bank.

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Cryptocurrency

TRON Reaches Massive Milestone: Is TRX’s Price Primed to Rocket?

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TL;DR

  • Tron’s network continues to attract users due to its fast transaction speeds and low costs, hence the latest impressive milestone.
  • At the same time, the native token’s price seems stuck between two major buy and sell walls, with little indication of the direction of the next move.

Although it’s still behind the leader, Ethereum, Tron’s USDT share has skyrocketed in the past few years. According to Tether’s transparency page, almost $72 billion worth of the world’s largest stablecoin is on Tron (from the Total Authorized amount), while Ethereum leads with $74.5 billion.

The numbers are even closer when you look at the net circulation – $73 billion for Ethereum and $71 billion for Tron. Solana, Ton, and Avalanche trail further behind, with around $2 billion each.

Perhaps that’s one of the biggest reasons behind the milestone we hinted about. CryptoQuant informed earlier this week that Tron has “grown to be one of the most active blockchain networks in the world” as it had crossed the $10 billion total transactions target.

The report claims that the daily transaction count is well above $8 million, which places Tron among the leaders in the space.

Tron Transaction Count. Source: CryptoQuant

Although the current average daily numbers are far from the 2023 peak, they are still close to the bull runs in mid-2021 and late 2024.

TRX’s price exploded late last year, surging to a new all-time high of over $0.43. However, it failed to maintain its run and has lost over 40% of its value since then. The past few months have seen the asset trading mostly in a tight range between $0.2 and $0.26.

According to a popular market observer and data analyst, TRX has built a buy wall at approximately the current price range, which acts as support in case of a violent nosedive. However, it also has a sell wall at around $0.3, which could mean that the asset will remain within this range for a while.

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Cryptocurrency

Important Bitcoin Metric Hits 6-Month High as BTC Price Prepares for Rebound

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TL;DR

  • Months after it was declared a ghost town, the Bitcoin network has picked up pace again, with the number of active addresses skyrocketing to over 900,000.
  • At the same time, a popular technical indicator has flashed a buy signal, suggesting that BTC’s price could be primed for another run in the short term.

Network activity is an important metric that helps determine whether or not the underlying blockchain is being used and to what extent. Although it’s not directly linked to the asset’s price movements, it shows the overall interest in it, and sometimes coincides with said moves.

For instance, the active addresses skyrocketed after the US elections, and BTC’s price followed suit. Contrastingly, the activity levels plunged after Trump’s inauguration, as the Bitcoin network was declared a “ghost town,” and the asset’s price followed suit in the following months, dropping from over $100,000 to under $80,000.

Now, though, Ali Martinez, the popular analyst on X, outlined a substantial uptick in the number of daily active addresses. His chart shows that the usage has shot up to over 925,000 such wallets, which is the highest amount in six months.

Recall that BTC’s price has already regained over $20,000 since its April 7 and 9 lows of under $75,000. However, it faced rejection at $98,000 yesterday and has fallen by around two grand.

Nevertheless, Martinez brought up another chart, which suggests more price increases are to come for the largest digital asset. The TD Sequential, a metric used to showcase the market’s exhaustion in either direction, has flashed a buy signal on the hourly chart, which is usually a good entry point.

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The Baby’s Getting Big: Bitcoin Volatility Hits 563-Day Low

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Vetle Lunde, the head of research at K33 Research, pointed out in an astonishing Crypto X post on Apr. 30 that the cryptocurrency’s 7-day volatility had just hit a 563-day low.

Meanwhile, 30-day Bitcoin price volatility against the US dollar has steadily ratcheted down. BTC volatility has been receding since 2011 and since 2021, according to data from BitBo and TheBlock.

Low Bitcoin Volatility: Bullish or Bearish for Price?

Low volatility can be bearish for cryptocurrencies and stocks. That’s because during bull markets prices tend to swing upward with more volume and correct more suddenly.

As a result, some traders may interpret low volatility as a sell or wait signal. But, Bitcoin’s chart technicals achieved this landmark record during a fierce BTC rally on Wall Street funds and crypto exchanges.

So, it may be difficult to fit this into the bigger picture as a bearish sign.

Instead, low BTC volatility may simply be the result of Bitcoin now having such a high market cap, near the $2 trillion notch to start May, that liquidity runs smoother. Whale-sized participants no longer have the volatile splash effect on the overall market they once had.

Fidelity: Many Stocks More Volatile Than BTC

Overall, that’s a bullish milestone for Bitcoin. It means the network has grown in capitalization at such a startling pace that now it doesn’t bob up and down so much like a small boat in the ocean. Instead, it moves more like a large, well-keeled, and stately craft.

A Fidelity Digital Assets research study from last year pointed out some interesting facts about BTC’s price fluctuations, such as, “Bitcoin is volatile, but less so than many popular mega-cap stocks.”

The Boston-based mega investment corporation also said, “Bitcoin is currently less volatile than 33 S&P 500 stocks, and as recently as late 2023, there were 92 S&P 500 stocks more volatile than bitcoin.”

The report nailed one projection: “Bitcoin’s volatility has declined and is expected to continue doing so.” Meanwhile, the crypto’s price has been rapidly increasing after the early April low of under $75,000 and is knocking on the $100,000 door.

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