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US Investor Seller Pressure Drags Bitcoin Coinbase Premium Index to 12-Month Low: CryptoQuant

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The positive seasonality known to affect the bitcoin market during the last quarters of every halving year is wearing off, as seen in BTC’s price movements over the past two weeks. This trend is often driven by high demand from investors; however, recent data shows that these market participants have slowed down in their acquisition of BTC.

The decline in demand, especially from investors in the United States, is seen in the Coinbase Premium Index, which fell to a level not seen in the past 12 months.

Coinbase Premium Slumps Again

According to a report from the CryptoQuant official Burakkesmeci, the Coinbase Premium Index,  which monitors BTC demand from U.S. retail investors, has fallen to -0.237, its lowest point since December 2023.

This metric fell to -0.200 on October 25, 2024, shortly before the United States presidential elections, due to heightened uncertainty about the outcome of the political race. However, the indicator surged above 0.15 a few weeks later as BTC rallied above $100,000 following President Donald Trump’s election victory.

The index’s latest plunge came as BTC fell below $92,000 to roughly $91,300 at the start of the current business week. Burakkesmeci said the index was also affected by a low-liquidity bitcoin market at the end of the year and increasing seller pressure on U.S. soil.

Room for Price Rally?

Outflows from the U.S.-based spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) market prove American investors have been selling their BTC. These products bled roughly $700 million on two out of the last three trading days of the year, and even on the day of inflows, they collectively recorded a measly $5.3 million in injected capital.

Even during the four days leading to Christmas, the spot Bitcoin ETFs shed more than $1.37 billion as investors scrambled to withdraw their funds. Burakkesmeci’s analysis indicates weak institutional demand and a cautious sentiment among U.S. bitcoin investors.

“This drop not only signals a lack of institutional demand but also underscores the cautious sentiment among U.S. investors. Such trends can create a challenging environment for Bitcoin’s short-term price recovery unless we see a shift in macroeconomic conditions or renewed interest from institutional or retail buyers,” the analyst stated.

Nevertheless, a drop in the Coinbase Premium Index signals room for price growth, meaning that bitcoin’s value could experience a recovery in no distant time.

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Analysts Post Thrilling Bitcoin Price Predictions for 2025: Where’s the Top?

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The little orange cryptocurrency was one of several digital assets in this segment that walloped 2024 gains from investing in US stocks like those in the S&P 500 Index or Nasdaq Composite.

Others, like Ripple’s XRP tokens for international settlements between large institutions, performed even better than Bitcoin. XRP was up 247% by Christmas Day in December. It notched 271% for the entire year on Wednesday.

But here’s how some leading crypto market analysts expect Bitcoin’s price to carry through some point over the 2025 calendar year.

For a basis of reference, Bitcoin traded at an average crypto exchange rate of $94,700 Wednesday evening US Eastern Time, according to data from CoinGecko.

Bitcoin Price Predictions: $80,000 – $160,000

Peter Brandt: $78,000

Brandt made a prediction on Sunday, Dec. 29, targeting a big drop in Bitcoin’s price to the $78,000 level, based on a 45-day head and shoulders top pattern.

If he’s right, BTC will have to take one step back before it advances toward the more bullish price targets for 2025. But Brandt also cautioned in the comment thread on his post, “Charts do NOT predict anything. Charts merely suggest possibilities.”

The famous stock chart technical analyst is bullish for XRP in 2025, but his outlook for Bitcoin’s price is bearish.

CoinShares: $80,000

European crypto hedge fund CoinShares’ head of research, James Butterfill, recently told CNBC that $150,000 BTC is possible in 2025. But he said a bearish correction to $80,000 is also on the cards.

“Disappointment surrounding Trump’s proposed crypto policies and doubts about their enactment could prompt a significant market correction,” Butterfill warned.

Bullish 2025 BTC Targets: $160,000 – $250,000

Standard Chartered: $200,000

British multinational bank Standard Chartered’s research head Geoff Kendrick says his office is targeting $200,000 BTC in 2025. He added that the entry of the United States government into the Bitcoin race is likely to fuel that rally.

“Even a small allocation of the USD 40tn in US retirement funds would significantly boost BTC prices,” Kendrick noted.

“We would turn even more bullish if BTC saw more rapid uptake by US retirement funds, global sovereign wealth funds (SWFs), or a potential US strategic reserve fund.”

Nexo: $250,000

Swiss-based crypto fund manager Nexo’s chief product officer, Elitsa Taskova, told CNBC, “We see Bitcoin more than doubling to $250,000 within a year.”

She points to ongoing trends in adoption by institutional finance and social indicators for the bullish outlook in 2025.

“These projections align with ongoing trends and social markers: increasing recognition of Bitcoin as a reserve asset, more Bitcoin and crypto-related exchange-traded products (ETPs), and stronger adoption,” Taskova said.

Bottom Line for Investors

Like stocks, cryptocurrency assets are held at risk. But for more than a decade, Bitcoin has delivered world-class returns during bull markets. That means it’s possible for a small allocation to BTC can substantially speed individual investment portfolios toward reaching personal finance goals.

Nevertheless, investors should do their own research before allocating funds into any asset, no matter its returns over the past year or two.

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From $2 to $11: Popular Analyst Maps Out Ripple’s (XRP) Next Big Move

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TL:DR;

  • XRP rebounded from its most recent price slip below $2, but the asset might not be out of the woods yet.
  • However, a popular crypto analyst suggested that a potential decline toward that level again could be beneficial for XRP’s long-term price movements.
XRPUSD. Source: TradingView
XRPUSD. Source: TradingView

Ripple’s cross-border token went on a massive run after the US elections, skyrocketing by triple digits at one point and peaking close to $3. All of these gains came in the span of a few weeks, but the asset lost momentum at the start of December.

It tumbled hard on several occasions in the following weeks, with the latest decline to under $2 transpiring last Monday – December 30. This came during the most recent market-wide correction.

However, the popular crypto asset reacted well to this decline and shot up by over 20% since then, currently sitting at around $2.45. Consequently, XRP has regained its spot as the third-largest cryptocurrency by market cap by surpassing Tether’s USDT.

According to analyst Ali Martinez, XRP still stands below a steep resistance level of $2.73, which has stopped its price ascent on a couple of occasions during this rally. If the asset fails to overcome it soon, it could slump back to $2.05.

However, Martinez actually believes that such a scenario could be a blessing in disguise for XRP, which could catapult it toward a fresh all-time high above $3.4 (CoinGecko data) and all the way up to $11.

It’s safe to say that $11 sounds quite extraordinary for XRP. Such a price tag would put the asset’s market cap at well over $600 billion, which would help it top Ethereum in that regard. Although this might sound plausible under a friendlier Trump administration, it’s still a long way away and falls under the category of exaggerated price predictions.

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2 Strong Indicators US Investors Are Flocking Back to Bitcoin

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The landscape around bitcoin after the last FOMC meeting for 2024 in the US turned upside down, with local investors pulling funds out of the ETFs and the Coinbase Premium Index declining to yearly lows.

However, on-chain data shows that US investors are back on the BTC front, with massive accumulations.

ETFs Demand Returns

During the aforementioned meeting at the highest levels in the US central bank, Fed Chair Jerome Powell warned that there might be fewer or even no rate cuts in 2025 due to rising inflation. US investors reacted immediately and started pulling funds out of riskier assets like BTC and crypto.

Within the next four trading days, they withdrew more than $1.5 billion out of the US-based Bitcoin exchange-traded funds. December 26 was the only day well in the green, as December 27, 30, and January 2 saw more net outflows. Even BlackRock’s IBIT, the world’s largest Bitcoin ETF, was posting negative records.

However, this changed on Friday, January 3. The total net inflows for the day shot up to $908.1 million, according to FarSide data. IBIT was actually second with $253.1 million, trailing behind Fidelity’s FBTC with $357 million. Ark Invest’s ARKB also had a strong presence, attracting $222.6 million. This became the best day in terms of net inflows since November 21.

Coinbase Premium Index

The other metric that showcases US investors’ overall behavior toward bitcoin and crypto is the Coinbase Premium Index, which measures the BTC price difference between Coinbase and Binance. When it shoots up into positive territory, this means that US-based investors are accumulating heavily, and vice versa.

The metric recently plunged to a yearly low, as reported, which coincided with the growing ETF outflows after the FOMC meeting. Now, though, CryptoQuant data shows that it has returned to neutral territory almost immediately after posting that low. This shows that “sentiment by the US and institutional investors is back.”

Bitcoin Coinbase Premium Index. Source: CryptoQuant
Bitcoin Coinbase Premium Index. Source: CryptoQuant
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