Cryptocurrency
War, CPI and $28K BTC price — 5 things to know in Bitcoin this week
Bitcoin (BTC) starts the second week of October up 4% month-to-date as geopolitical instability provides a snap market focus.
BTC price action continues to hold steady at $28,000, but what will happen next as markets react to the war in Israel?
In what could end up a volatile period for risk assets, Bitcoin has yet to offer a significant reaction, spending the weekend in a tight corridor.
That could soon change, however, as the Wall Street open comes amid a hike in oil and gold, along with U.S. dollar strength.
Macroeconomic triggers are also far from lacking, with the coming days due to see the September print of the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI). In the wake of surprise employment data last week, the readout holds additional importance for the Federal Reserve.
Beneath the hood, meanwhile, on-chain metrics are pointing to interesting times for Bitcoin, as BTC/USD trades in a key range, which has formed a watershed area since 2021.
Cointelegraph looks at these factors and more in the weekly rundown of potential BTC price triggers to come.
Bitcoin “illiquid and choppy” as weekly close passes
The weekend saw market participants fully focused on the abrupt breakout of war in Israel, and as markets themselves reopen, change is already afoot.
For Bitcoin, however, the ongoing events have yet to deliver a palpable chain reaction, data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView shows.
BTC price action has centered on $28,000 since Friday, and that level remains key as traders hope for a resistance/support flip.
“Nothing special going on this weekend,” Daan Crypto Trades summarized on X (formerly Twitter) into the weekly close.
“Would expect volumes to pick up a bit soon but ultimately we should be hovering around this price region until futures open back up tonight.”
A further post noted that Bitcoin had yet to decisively break through the 200-week moving average (MA), which sits at $28,176 at the time of writing.
Analyzing the 4-hour chart, popular trader Skew described BTC price behavior as “illiquid and choppy.”
$BTC 4H
these wicks really say how illiquid & choppy price action is pic.twitter.com/Qq13GsuqfB— Skew Δ (@52kskew) October 9, 2023
“Bitcoin’s bullish flag is still in play — but it is taking too long to play out,” fellow trader Jelle continued, zooming out to monthly performance.
“October is generally the most bullish month of the year, thus I’m still expecting this one to break out upwards.”
War returns to crypto observers’ radar
When it comes to price triggers, however, the unfolding conflict in Israel has Bitcoin and crypto market participants anticipating the bulk of volatility is still to come.
With the memory of Bitcoin’s reaction to the war in Ukraine in February 2022 still in the background, Jelle was cautious over what might happen to BTC/USD next.
“All I do know is that the Ukraine war triggered an 8% down candle, that was erased within a day,” part of the day’s X commentary explained.
Mike McGlone, senior macro strategist at Bloomberg Intelligence, meanwhile described Bitcoin as now showing a “risk-off tilt” among traders.
“My bias is the downward sloping 100-week moving average is likely to win the battle vs. the up trending 50-week. Spiking #crudeoil is a liquidity pressure factor,” he wrote on Oct. 8.
At the time, the 100-week and 50-week MAs were at $28,938 and $24,890, respectively.
McGlone touched on an unfolding macro asset phenomenon, with gold up 1% on the day and Brent crude up 3.25% ahead of the Wall Street open.
“Markets reacting quite defensively,” Skew added, noting renewed strength in the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY), which gained 0.4%.
Last week, the DXY hit its highest levels since late 2022.
CPI leads “huge week for inflation”
In the U.S., attention focuses on the week’s macroeconomic data prints, headlined by the September CPI report.
After jobs data last week showed that employment levels remained resilient despite anti-inflation moves from the Fed, Bitcoin briefly recoiled over fears that officials would enact another interest rate hike, further pressuring liquidity.
While BTC/USD rebounded, those fears remain.
“A good CPI data on Thursday could provide a chance to break out from this range, whereas a hot CPI would push us back into the range lows with the premise that the FED might be forced to hike 25bsp,” part of weekend analysis from popular commentator CrypNuevo read.
According to data from CME Group’s FedWatch Tool, markets are increasingly betting on rates staying at current levels on decision day, set for Nov. 1.
Beyond CPI, this week will see the Producer Price Index (PPI) release, along with more jobless claims and a total of 12 Fed speakers delivering commentary. The minutes of the Fed meeting around the previous rates decision will also be unveiled on Oct. 11.
Key Events This Week:
1. September PPI Inflation – Wednesday
2. Fed Meeting Minutes – Wednesday
3. September CPI Inflation – Thursday
4. OPEC Monthly Report – Thursday
5. Jobless Claims Data – Thursday
6. Total of 12 Fed speaker events
Huge week for inflation and the Fed.
— The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) October 8, 2023
“Huge week for inflation and the Fed,” financial commentary resource The Kobeissi Letter summarized in part of an X thread.
“In addition, markets will react to geopolitical tensions from this weekend. Volatility is the new normal.”
NVT signal spikes to highest since 2018
Within Bitcoin, the network value to transaction (NVT) signal leads the pack on on-chain metric volatility to start the week.
NVT, which its creator, Dmity Kalichkin, describes as a “PE ratio” for Bitcoin, seeks to estimate local BTC price tops and bottoms by comparing market cap to daily on-chain transaction values.
The latest data from on-chain analytics firm Glassnode shows NVT hitting its highest levels in five years — over 1,750 and far beyond its position at the start of 2023.
NVT has undergone various overhauls in recent years, as the dynamics of the BTC supply call for different guidance figures for determining price tops.
“If the trend towards side-chains and private transactions continues, we can expect less-and-less transactions to be captured in the public on-chain data (reducing the relative value of the “T” in NVT),” Charles Edwards, founder of quantitative Bitcoin and digital asset fund Capriole Investments, wrote in part of his own research in 2019.
“This could cause the fair value NVT range to increase with time.”
Analyzing the NVT spike, crypto market intelligence platform IntoTheBlock suggested that it was representative of a broader metamorphosis.
“The lens through which we view Bitcoin’s value is changing,” it wrote at the weekend.
“Transaction value & volume were once the go-to metrics. However, recent spikes in NVT ratios hint that Bitcoin’s value is now moving independently of transactional utility, hinting at its growing role as a store of value.”
Neither fearful, nor greedy
Providing a fleeting insight into crypto market sentiment, the classic Crypto Fear & Greed Index reflects an overall air of indecision.
Related: Bitcoin bull market awaits as US faces ‘bear steepener’ — Arthur Hayes
The average investor is ambivalent when it comes to the market, as shown by the Index sticking rigidly to its “neutral” territory.
As of Oct. 9, Fear & Greed is at 50/100 — exactly half way along its scale between two sentiment extremes.
Zooming out, recent months have marked some of its least volatile conditions on record.
“You know the drill, i will be mass buying when we drop down to Extreme Fear and a $20,000 Bitcoin,” popular trader Crypto Tony reacted to the latest data.
“May take a while, but i feel Q1 / Q2 2024 will be the ticket. If i see a change in behaviour i will re-evaluate.”
Crypto Tony referenced an inkling that BTC/USD will return to $20,000 for a final retest before expanding higher after the 2024 block subsidy halving.
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.
Bitcoin’s largest holders are accumulating aggressively while retail investors cash out, fueling speculation of a potential major price jump to a new all-time high (ATH) ahead.
According to blockchain analytics firm Santiment, over the last 30 days, wallets holding between 10 and 10,000 BTC have scooped up an additional 83,105 BTC, while smaller retail wallets, with less than 0.1 BTC, have collectively shed 387 BTC in the same period.
Whales Buy the Dip, Retail Sells the Rally
Santiment analysts noted clear signs that smaller wallets were taking profits, likely out of fear of a market top, while whales and sharks were doubling down. This stark divergence, especially the large-scale accumulation, led the analysts to suggest that Bitcoin’s next push up may only be “a matter of time” and could see the asset breach the $110,000 level to usher in a new ATH.
The prediction is based on growing macroeconomic optimism, after the flagship cryptocurrency soared to $105,800 on May 12 following news of de-escalating trade tensions between the United States and China.
The two squabbling nations have agreed to cease tariff hostilities for 90 days, with the U.S. slashing taxes on Chinese imports from 145% to 30% and Beijing bringing down its levies on American-made goods from 125% to 10%.
However, while the agreement spurred rallies in global equities and crypto, Santiment urged caution at the time, noting in an earlier post on X that the announcement may only outline a framework deal, not an executed agreement.
The experts advised, “Avoid overextending until confirmations are made,” warning of a potential “buy the rumor, sell the news” pullback.
Still, institutional confidence remains unshaken. Yesterday, Michael Saylor’s Strategy added 13,390 BTC to its books for $1.34 billion, averaging $99,856 for each. The purchase brings its total holding to 568,840 BTC, worth over $59 billion, translating to about $20 billion in unrealized profit.
Not to be left behind, Metaplanet also announced a more modest $126.7 million acquisition of 1,271 BTC, at $102,119 each. The buy took the Tokyo-based company’s BTC reserves to 6,796, eclipsing El Salvador’s and pushing its BTC Yield for the year to 170%.
Price Action
Looking at the market, the world’s largest cryptocurrency by market cap is showing signs of consolidation after its recent spike. At the time of going to press, it was trading at $102,427, down about 1.8% in the last 24 hours.
Additionally, although it’s up 8.5% on the week, it slightly underperformed compared to the broader crypto market, which gained 10.5% in that time. However, BTC has continued to shine across longer periods, up 21.2% for the month and 68.1% year-on-year, even though it remains 5.7% shy of its $108,786 ATH set earlier in the year.
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TL;DR
- On-chain data shared by popular crypto analyst Ali Martinez claims that XRP has no major resistance obstacles on its way up.
- At the same time, Glassnode reported that the latest rally could be driven by the futures market.
No Resistance Ahead?
Until this time last week, analysts indicated that $2 is crucial support in XRP’s future price performance, while noting that a surge past the resistance at $2.26 could become pivotal in reaffirming the asset’s bull run restart.
Such a price surge indeed transpired several days ago and the third-largest non-stablecoin cryptocurrency has remained above the latter ever since. Although it was stopped on its way to $2.7 yesterday, it still trades above $2.5 now and is among the few altcoins in the green today.
According to Martinez, there’s only clear sky ahead for XRP. In a recent post, the analyst with nearly 140,000 followers on X indicated that “on-chain data shows XRP has no major resistance clusters ahead.” On the other hand, the zone around $2.38 has become a key support level.
On-chain data shows $XRP has no major resistance clusters ahead, while the key support zone to watch sits at $2.38. pic.twitter.com/vvXjsSUYG1
— Ali (@ali_charts) May 13, 2025
In accordance with this bullish news came a few big price predictions for XRP. AllInCrypto said the asset is on its way to turn the previous all-time high of $3.4 into support, which would “lead it further along its way to our $19 price target in the long term.”
Others were a bit more modest, posting price targets of up to $5.4.
Futures-Driven Rally?
Glassnode noted earlier today that the XRP Futures Open Interest had skyrocketed by over $1 billion in just a week, up to $3.42 billion, representing a 41.6% increase. Given the underlying asset’s price rally that drove it to over $2.5, the analytics company determined that most of it was driven by leveraged positions, which suggests “growing directional conviction.”
$XRP Futures Open Interest has surged by over $1B in the past week, rising from $2.42B to $3.42B (+41.6%). This sharp increase in leverage coincides with a price rally from $2.14 to $2.48, suggesting elevated speculative activity and growing directional conviction, pic.twitter.com/QbsaOM9oxE
— glassnode (@glassnode) May 13, 2025
Recall that the last time the Open Interest for XRP had shot up this fast led to a price surge from $2.3 to $3.3 within a week or so back in January.
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[PRESS RELEASE – Victoria, Seychelles, May 13th, 2025]
As centralized exchanges and On-chain Trading edge closer to integration, global crypto trading platform BYDFi has officially launched MoonX, a powerful new on-chain trading engine. Positioned as a “ticket to the DEX world” for CEX users, MoonX simplifies DeFi access and marks the beginning of BYDFi’s dual-engine strategy.
CEX vs. DEX: From Competition to Integration
With meme coins, airdrops, and early-stage tokens gaining traction, on-chain markets have become a high-growth arena for crypto users. But wallet setup, gas fees, and cross-chain operations remain hurdles for mainstream CEX users.
At the same time, CEXs are increasingly limited in capturing early-stage or long-tail assets. The industry is clearly shifting: CEXs and DEXs are no longer separate silos—they are becoming complementary systems. MoonX is BYDFi’s answer to this evolution.
MoonX: The Gateway to On-Chain Trading
MoonX isn’t another exchange or wallet; it’s a lightweight entry point to Web3 trading. It retains the security and user familiarity of CEXs while unlocking the asset diversity and potential of DeFi.
For Example: a user discovers a trending meme coin on social media and wants to copy a whale trade. Traditionally, that would involve switching wallets, acquiring gas, copying contract addresses, and navigating multiple DEX interfaces. With MoonX, there’s no wallet setup, no gas fees, no chain switching—just one BYDFi account and a single tap to execute.
MoonX delivers a Web2-level user experience tailored for a Web3 world:
Access to Over 500,000 Meme Coins
- Aggregates liquidity from multiple platforms like Pump.fun, Raydium, PancakeSwap, and more.
- Currently supports Solana and BNB Chain, with plans to expand to additional major blockchains.
Built-In Trading Intelligence
- Integrates smart strategies and smart money copy trading.
- Millisecond-level execution, optimized for high-frequency Degen Traders.
Security-First On-Chain Infrastructure
- Hybrid custody ensures users don’t manage private keys but still retain asset control.
- Co-built with Safeheron using MPC + TEE for institutional-grade protection.
- Integrated with GoPlus for real-time contract risk scanning and alerts.
BYDFi: Entering the Dual-Engine Era
MoonX is more than a product update—it’s the start of BYDFi’s CEX + DEX dual-engine architecture. Users can now manage centralized and on-chain assets within one unified account framework.
By combining liquidity, strategy tools, and advanced security, MoonX goes beyond trend-chasing. It’s building a foundation for trading early-stage, long-tail assets with optimized on-chain efficiency.
Michael, Co-Founder of BYDFi, stated: “MoonX is more than a new feature—it could shape a new standard: a scalable Web3 onboarding system that starts with a CEX front-end and runs on a DEX backend, designed for frictionless asset flow.”
He added: “MoonX merges the best of both worlds—CEX performance and DEX freedom—so that anyone can participate in smart on-chain trading. Web3 shouldn’t be exclusive to experts. It should be a finance layer open to all.”
About BYDFi
Founded in 2020, BYDFi serves over 1,000,000 users across 190+ countries. Its product lineup includes spot, derivatives, copy trading, and now on-chain trading via MoonX.
In 2023, BYDFi was recognized by Forbes as one of the Top 10 Global Crypto Exchanges. In 2025, it partnered with Ledger to launch a co-branded hardware wallet, reinforcing user self-custody and asset security.
BYDFi is committed to providing a world-class crypto trading experience for users. BUIDL Your Dream Finance.
- Website: https://www.bydfi.com
- Support Email: cs@bydfi.com
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- Media Inquiries: media@bydfi.com
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