Connect with us
  • tg

Cryptocurrency

War, CPI and $28K BTC price — 5 things to know in Bitcoin this week

letizo News

Published

on

Bitcoin (BTC) starts the second week of October up 4% month-to-date as geopolitical instability provides a snap market focus.

BTC price action continues to hold steady at $28,000, but what will happen next as markets react to the war in Israel?

In what could end up a volatile period for risk assets, Bitcoin has yet to offer a significant reaction, spending the weekend in a tight corridor.

That could soon change, however, as the Wall Street open comes amid a hike in oil and gold, along with U.S. dollar strength.

Macroeconomic triggers are also far from lacking, with the coming days due to see the September print of the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI). In the wake of surprise employment data last week, the readout holds additional importance for the Federal Reserve.

Beneath the hood, meanwhile, on-chain metrics are pointing to interesting times for Bitcoin, as BTC/USD trades in a key range, which has formed a watershed area since 2021.

Cointelegraph looks at these factors and more in the weekly rundown of potential BTC price triggers to come.

Bitcoin “illiquid and choppy” as weekly close passes

The weekend saw market participants fully focused on the abrupt breakout of war in Israel, and as markets themselves reopen, change is already afoot.

For Bitcoin, however, the ongoing events have yet to deliver a palpable chain reaction, data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView shows.

BTC price action has centered on $28,000 since Friday, and that level remains key as traders hope for a resistance/support flip.

BTC/USD 1-hour chart. Source: TradingView

“Nothing special going on this weekend,” Daan Crypto Trades summarized on X (formerly Twitter) into the weekly close.

“Would expect volumes to pick up a bit soon but ultimately we should be hovering around this price region until futures open back up tonight.”

A further post noted that Bitcoin had yet to decisively break through the 200-week moving average (MA), which sits at $28,176 at the time of writing.

Analyzing the 4-hour chart, popular trader Skew described BTC price behavior as “illiquid and choppy.”

“Bitcoin’s bullish flag is still in play — but it is taking too long to play out,” fellow trader Jelle continued, zooming out to monthly performance.

“October is generally the most bullish month of the year, thus I’m still expecting this one to break out upwards.”

BTC/USD annotated chart. Source: Jelle/X

War returns to crypto observers’ radar

When it comes to price triggers, however, the unfolding conflict in Israel has Bitcoin and crypto market participants anticipating the bulk of volatility is still to come.

With the memory of Bitcoin’s reaction to the war in Ukraine in February 2022 still in the background, Jelle was cautious over what might happen to BTC/USD next.

“All I do know is that the Ukraine war triggered an 8% down candle, that was erased within a day,” part of the day’s X commentary explained.

Mike McGlone, senior macro strategist at Bloomberg Intelligence, meanwhile described Bitcoin as now showing a “risk-off tilt” among traders.

“My bias is the downward sloping 100-week moving average is likely to win the battle vs. the up trending 50-week. Spiking #crudeoil is a liquidity pressure factor,” he wrote on Oct. 8.

BTC/USD vs. Fed funds futures with 50, 100-week MA chart. Source: Mike McGlone/X

At the time, the 100-week and 50-week MAs were at $28,938 and $24,890, respectively.

McGlone touched on an unfolding macro asset phenomenon, with gold up 1% on the day and Brent crude up 3.25% ahead of the Wall Street open.

“Markets reacting quite defensively,” Skew added, noting renewed strength in the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY), which gained 0.4%.

Last week, the DXY hit its highest levels since late 2022.

DXY 1-hour chart. Source: TradingView

CPI leads “huge week for inflation”

In the U.S., attention focuses on the week’s macroeconomic data prints, headlined by the September CPI report.

After jobs data last week showed that employment levels remained resilient despite anti-inflation moves from the Fed, Bitcoin briefly recoiled over fears that officials would enact another interest rate hike, further pressuring liquidity.

While BTC/USD rebounded, those fears remain.

“A good CPI data on Thursday could provide a chance to break out from this range, whereas a hot CPI would push us back into the range lows with the premise that the FED might be forced to hike 25bsp,” part of weekend analysis from popular commentator CrypNuevo read.

Fed target rate probabilities chart. Source: CME Group

According to data from CME Group’s FedWatch Tool, markets are increasingly betting on rates staying at current levels on decision day, set for Nov. 1.

Beyond CPI, this week will see the Producer Price Index (PPI) release, along with more jobless claims and a total of 12 Fed speakers delivering commentary. The minutes of the Fed meeting around the previous rates decision will also be unveiled on Oct. 11.

“Huge week for inflation and the Fed,” financial commentary resource The Kobeissi Letter summarized in part of an X thread.

“In addition, markets will react to geopolitical tensions from this weekend. Volatility is the new normal.”

NVT signal spikes to highest since 2018

Within Bitcoin, the network value to transaction (NVT) signal leads the pack on on-chain metric volatility to start the week.

NVT, which its creator, Dmity Kalichkin, describes as a “PE ratio” for Bitcoin, seeks to estimate local BTC price tops and bottoms by comparing market cap to daily on-chain transaction values.

The latest data from on-chain analytics firm Glassnode shows NVT hitting its highest levels in five years — over 1,750 and far beyond its position at the start of 2023.

Bitcoin NVT signal chart. Source: Glassnode/X

NVT has undergone various overhauls in recent years, as the dynamics of the BTC supply call for different guidance figures for determining price tops.

“If the trend towards side-chains and private transactions continues, we can expect less-and-less transactions to be captured in the public on-chain data (reducing the relative value of the “T” in NVT),” Charles Edwards, founder of quantitative Bitcoin and digital asset fund Capriole Investments, wrote in part of his own research in 2019.

“This could cause the fair value NVT range to increase with time.”

Analyzing the NVT spike, crypto market intelligence platform IntoTheBlock suggested that it was representative of a broader metamorphosis.

“The lens through which we view Bitcoin’s value is changing,” it wrote at the weekend.

“Transaction value & volume were once the go-to metrics. However, recent spikes in NVT ratios hint that Bitcoin’s value is now moving independently of transactional utility, hinting at its growing role as a store of value.”

Neither fearful, nor greedy

Providing a fleeting insight into crypto market sentiment, the classic Crypto Fear & Greed Index reflects an overall air of indecision.

Related: Bitcoin bull market awaits as US faces ‘bear steepener’ — Arthur Hayes

The average investor is ambivalent when it comes to the market, as shown by the Index sticking rigidly to its “neutral” territory.

As of Oct. 9, Fear & Greed is at 50/100 — exactly half way along its scale between two sentiment extremes.

Zooming out, recent months have marked some of its least volatile conditions on record.

“You know the drill, i will be mass buying when we drop down to Extreme Fear and a $20,000 Bitcoin,” popular trader Crypto Tony reacted to the latest data.

“May take a while, but i feel Q1 / Q2 2024 will be the ticket. If i see a change in behaviour i will re-evaluate.”

Crypto Tony referenced an inkling that BTC/USD will return to $20,000 for a final retest before expanding higher after the 2024 block subsidy halving.

Crypto Fear & Greed Index (screenshot). Source: Alternative.me

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.

Cryptocurrency

BONK Explodes by 20% Daily as Bitcoin (BTC) Remains Solid at $108K: Weekend Watch

letizo News

Published

on

Bitcoin’s stagnation continues as the asset has made little to no attempt to move away from the $108,000 level.

While most larger-cap alts have produced insignificant gains, TON and BONK have emerged as the biggest gainers on a relatively calm Sunday morning.

BTC Calm at $108K

It has been a quiet period for the primary cryptocurrency. In fact, the latest major price moves came about two weeks ago – on June 23 and 24 – when it dumped to $98,000 before it soared past $105,000 a day later as the Middle East war was going rampantly.

Ever since then, though, the asset has been stuck in a tight trading range between $105,000 and $110,000. It tested the lower boundary on Wednesday, where the bulls stepped up and pushed it south toward the upper one.

On Thursday, BTC showed signs of a breakout attempt when it spiked to a multi-week peak of $110,500, but the bears stepped up at this point and didn’t allow a surge to a new all-time high.

The landscape has been somewhat unchanged since then, as bitcoin quickly returned to $108,000 and has not moved from that level for a few days. Its market capitalization stands strong at $2.150 trillion, while its dominance over the alts is at over 63% on CG.

BTCUSD. Source: TradingView
BTCUSD. Source: TradingView

BONK on the Run

As the graph below will demonstrate, most larger-cap alts are slightly in the green on a daily scale. Such minor increases are evident from the likes of ETH, BNB, SOL, TRX, DOGE, ADA, BCH, LINK, and XRP. In contrast, HYPE and PI have lost some traction over the past 24 hours.

The biggest gainers are TON and BONK. The former has risen by over 9% and sits at $3, while the meme coin has exploded by 20% and now trades at $0.000022.

The cumulative market cap of all crypto assets has remained relatively stable at $3.4 trillion on CG.

Cryptocurrency Market Overview. Source: QuantifyCrypto
Cryptocurrency Market Overview. Source: QuantifyCrypto
SPECIAL OFFER (Sponsored)
Binance Free $600 (CryptoPotato Exclusive): Use this link to register a new account and receive $600 exclusive welcome offer on Binance (full details).

LIMITED OFFER for CryptoPotato readers at Bybit: Use this link to register and open a $500 FREE position on any coin!

Disclaimer: Information found on CryptoPotato is those of writers quoted. It does not represent the opinions of CryptoPotato on whether to buy, sell, or hold any investments. You are advised to conduct your own research before making any investment decisions. Use provided information at your own risk. See Disclaimer for more information.

Cryptocurrency charts by TradingView.

Continue Reading

Cryptocurrency

XRP Price Builds Bullish Momentum: Watch This Resistance Level Closely

letizo News

Published

on

TL;DR

  • Ripple’s cross-border token had a stellar Q4 24 and early Q1 25 but stalled in the following months, and its consolidation phase has not ended yet.
  • However, analysts are adamant that the asset can unlock major gains, as long as it reclaims a key resistance level.

Basing his analysis on XRP’s UTXO, Ali Martinez determined that this pivotal level is situated at $2.38, where the fourth-largest cryptocurrency faced several rejections in the past few months. However, a conclusive breakout above it could send the token flying, he added.

Shortly after, the analyst with almost 140,000 followers on X indicated that XRP can surge to $2.6 as long as it reclaims $2.33.

BitGuru also outlined the significance of the same two major resistance lines, saying the asset was rejected at the lower one after it confirmed an “inverse head and shoulders and triple bottom pattern.”

With XRP now testing the $2.23 support, the doors open for a surge back to $2.33 as long as it can remain above it, BitGuru added.

Elite Crypto’s analysis is similar to that of Martinez, as they noted that XRP is “showing a strong bullish setup.” They added that “the price is consistently respecting the horizontal support and now approaching the downtrend resistance.”

The analyst predicted that a breakout from this obstacle could result in a massive price surge for Ripple’s token, perhaps to and above the $3.4 all-time high.

SPECIAL OFFER (Sponsored)
Binance Free $600 (CryptoPotato Exclusive): Use this link to register a new account and receive $600 exclusive welcome offer on Binance (full details).

LIMITED OFFER for CryptoPotato readers at Bybit: Use this link to register and open a $500 FREE position on any coin!

Continue Reading

Cryptocurrency

Ethereum Price Fell 2% In June But Has These 4 Bullish Signs Going Into July

letizo News

Published

on

June was a lackluster month for crypto market gains amid global uncertainty looming over international tariff policy and the future direction of US central bank rates.

US Stocks Outpaced Ethereum In June

For the 30 day window ending Friday, Jun. 27, the S&P 500 Index gained +4.25%.

The push overcame serious resistance from the tariff nail biters and took the broad US stock benchmark to a historic record close Friday.

But after running from $76,200 on 4/8 to $111,600 on 5/22, a +46% gain in a little over a month, Bitcoin’s price took some time to cool down in June. The cryptocurrency charted minor gains, which could be seen as a positive in the face of massive international turmoils and geopolitical shocks.

Meanwhile, Ethereum corrected by 24% before bouncing off the Jun. 22 support to finalize a 2% loss for the 30 days ending Friday, Jun. 30th. So does ETH have a problem that Bitcoin doesn’t?

Not really.

Ethereum is a smaller currency by market cap, about 14% of Bitcoin’s size. Traders still perceive it as a more speculative bet. So it tends to move in the same direction as BTC — by larger percentages.

That means on the way down, losses are frequently greater. But on the way up, gains are often greater too.

For example, during the crypto market’s rally from early April through early June, Bitcoin made a +46% gain. But during the same rally, Ethereum gained +100%, rising from the $1,400 handle to the $2,800 level.

Bitcoin and Ethereum Rainbow Charts

Double rainbow all the way across the sky?

Bitcoin is by and large the biggest leading indicator for the rest of the crypto market’s prices, including Ethereum. It appears to have a long ways to go before topping out this year or next.

Based on popular and authoritative analysts’ price targets for Bitcoin in 2025, it’s pacing to enter July and Q3 at 50% to 66% of its peak price before this cycle is over.

That means it could double or gain by half again its June price levels before the year is over.

Standard Chartered, Bernstein, Galaxy Digital, and Peter Brandt all expect $150,000 to $200,000 for BTC sometime in the next six months.

Bitcoin’s long-term price trend rainbow chart confirms these projections.

Meanwhile, Ethereum’s own long-term trend chart is shaping up to signal a three-peat of a multi-year trend.

If it happens the way it did the last two major market cycles, this Ether prices could be primed to rise by more than Bitcoin’s during the next big monthly rally.

Screenshot 2025-07-06 at 10.07.12
Source: X

If it turns out to be Bitcoin’s final push for its peak on this cycle as market watchers expect, Ethereum’s gains could signal the start of this cycle’s alt season in meme coins and Layer 2 app tokens.

In addition to the market technical setup for ETH prices in Q3, here are four further bullish signals supporting the leading smart contract platform’s price gains in July.

1. Who Will Win Ethereum L2 Fee Wars?

Ethereum’s price has taken time to absorb the shock of the Dencun upgrade on Mar. 13, 2024.

The upgrade lowers rates for Layer 2 apps to lock in tranches of transaction updates with the base layer chain.

In the 15 months since, developers have deployed a number of new apps with currencies that offer Ethereum services for lower fees.

The base chain’s fee revenue dropped from $30 million annually to $500,000 by Q1 of this year.

That saves users money, but a lot of Ethereum stakers who had their money parked in staking contracts to earn that fee revenue felt inclined to move it somewhere that it could still earn returns on their savings.

This is a massive factor in Ethereum’s sluggish price growth compared to Bitcoin’s over the past year. But it’s not that the latter is falling behind its competitors like Solana and Ripple.

When factoring in the growth of the post-Dencun L2 coins on Ethereum— like Mantle (MNT), POL (POL), Arbitrum (ARB), Optimism (OP), Movement (MOVE), and Starknet (STRK)— the money mostly didn’t leave Ethereum and go to its competitors. It went to another layer, powered by and supporting the base chain.

For that reason, Ethereum may be undervalued by a large number of the cryptocurrency market’s headline readers that don’t understand what happened.

Ethereum Identity Crisis?

Some have referred in the mean time to this awkward stage in Ethereum’s growth as an identity crisis. It’s an open platform and anyone can build on it in any way that the code can handle.

The question for Vitalik Buterin and crypto market investors who show up to value early is:

Will one of the slew of Ethereum scale and fee apps, some new app we haven’t heard of yet, or an upgrade be what implements the best ultra long term, future proof, platform-wide standardizations that define the network’s global advantages?

Find the answer to that question and you’re doing some real work.

2. SharpLink $30M ETH Buy

In another positive development, the corporate treasury race that started for Bitcoin supplies continues to rock the Ethereum markets.

SharpLink Gaming, bought another $30 million worth of ETH just before the Ether price chart threw a small cup and handle pattern. But why does this matter? Well, let’s see what happened to STrategy.

Led by founder and executive chairman Michael Saylor, Tyson’s Corner, Virginia-based Strategy Inc. and Bitcoin have both benefited from the company’s pivot in 2020 to simply pile up as much BTC as it can hold on to forever.

As a result of the cryptocurrency’s increasing popularity with investors since then, MSTR stock rallied 566% in under 11 months from $63 per share on Jan. 5, 2024 to a price peak of $420 on Nov. 22, 2024.

Over that same time, the S&P 500 Index rallied 27% from the 4697 level to 5969.

Every $100 spent on Strategy stock on Jan. 5 last year could be sold for $666 dollars on Nov. 22, paying back buyers $566 for saving their $100 with MSTR shares for a term of 11 months.

That’s like a downpayment on a new car lease with a high credit score.

Meanwhile, $100 spent on an S&P 500 ETF would have returned buyers $27. That’s more like a cheap dinner out for two. All for the same hundred bucks and the same 11 months.

That suggests regulated Wall Street investors wanted on to the Bitcoin bandwagon and found a way in Strategy stocks. Seeing the bullishness of corporate finance, Internet crypto markets were now racing Strategy to accumulate a scarce supply of BTC tokens.

Now, SharpLink is doing it again with ETH. The company’s stocks spiked over 8 days in late May from $3.76 per share to just under $80 a share as Wall Street rewarded the former gaming company for pivoting to accumulating a regulated corporate Ether treasury.

3. $39M ETH Whale Bite

Meanwhile, an Ethereum whale took a $39 million chomp out of the crypto dip on 6/22.

Ethereum’s forward outlook was too good for this whale not to bite at that 24% off discount tag.

Every token is a vote with a daily trading value that fluctuates on a global open market of crypto exchanges. Participants “vote” by locking, unlocking, moving, and swapping currencies, as often as they like, any time they like.

When crypto investors take Ether tokens off a crypto exchange, the remaining supply of ETH tends to attract higher prices at the point of sale. But when they stake ETH for yield, it creates even more support.

4. Bit Digital Drops $34M BTC for ETH

Not to be outdone by SharpLink, publicly traded, New York-based blockchain company Bit Digital, announced on 6/25 it is giving up $34 million worth of BTC tokens to move the proceeds into Ether and develop staking strategies.

They might profit well from determining in advance of the overall market which of the Ethereum scale and fee coins will deliver the most yield and gains together over timespans relevant to their balance sheet and calendar.

SPECIAL OFFER (Sponsored)
Binance Free $600 (CryptoPotato Exclusive): Use this link to register a new account and receive $600 exclusive welcome offer on Binance (full details).

LIMITED OFFER for CryptoPotato readers at Bybit: Use this link to register and open a $500 FREE position on any coin!

Continue Reading

Trending

©2021-2024 Letizo All Rights Reserved