Cryptocurrency
War, CPI and $28K BTC price — 5 things to know in Bitcoin this week
Bitcoin (BTC) starts the second week of October up 4% month-to-date as geopolitical instability provides a snap market focus.
BTC price action continues to hold steady at $28,000, but what will happen next as markets react to the war in Israel?
In what could end up a volatile period for risk assets, Bitcoin has yet to offer a significant reaction, spending the weekend in a tight corridor.
That could soon change, however, as the Wall Street open comes amid a hike in oil and gold, along with U.S. dollar strength.
Macroeconomic triggers are also far from lacking, with the coming days due to see the September print of the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI). In the wake of surprise employment data last week, the readout holds additional importance for the Federal Reserve.
Beneath the hood, meanwhile, on-chain metrics are pointing to interesting times for Bitcoin, as BTC/USD trades in a key range, which has formed a watershed area since 2021.
Cointelegraph looks at these factors and more in the weekly rundown of potential BTC price triggers to come.
Bitcoin “illiquid and choppy” as weekly close passes
The weekend saw market participants fully focused on the abrupt breakout of war in Israel, and as markets themselves reopen, change is already afoot.
For Bitcoin, however, the ongoing events have yet to deliver a palpable chain reaction, data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView shows.
BTC price action has centered on $28,000 since Friday, and that level remains key as traders hope for a resistance/support flip.
“Nothing special going on this weekend,” Daan Crypto Trades summarized on X (formerly Twitter) into the weekly close.
“Would expect volumes to pick up a bit soon but ultimately we should be hovering around this price region until futures open back up tonight.”
A further post noted that Bitcoin had yet to decisively break through the 200-week moving average (MA), which sits at $28,176 at the time of writing.
Analyzing the 4-hour chart, popular trader Skew described BTC price behavior as “illiquid and choppy.”
$BTC 4H
these wicks really say how illiquid & choppy price action is pic.twitter.com/Qq13GsuqfB— Skew Δ (@52kskew) October 9, 2023
“Bitcoin’s bullish flag is still in play — but it is taking too long to play out,” fellow trader Jelle continued, zooming out to monthly performance.
“October is generally the most bullish month of the year, thus I’m still expecting this one to break out upwards.”
War returns to crypto observers’ radar
When it comes to price triggers, however, the unfolding conflict in Israel has Bitcoin and crypto market participants anticipating the bulk of volatility is still to come.
With the memory of Bitcoin’s reaction to the war in Ukraine in February 2022 still in the background, Jelle was cautious over what might happen to BTC/USD next.
“All I do know is that the Ukraine war triggered an 8% down candle, that was erased within a day,” part of the day’s X commentary explained.
Mike McGlone, senior macro strategist at Bloomberg Intelligence, meanwhile described Bitcoin as now showing a “risk-off tilt” among traders.
“My bias is the downward sloping 100-week moving average is likely to win the battle vs. the up trending 50-week. Spiking #crudeoil is a liquidity pressure factor,” he wrote on Oct. 8.
At the time, the 100-week and 50-week MAs were at $28,938 and $24,890, respectively.
McGlone touched on an unfolding macro asset phenomenon, with gold up 1% on the day and Brent crude up 3.25% ahead of the Wall Street open.
“Markets reacting quite defensively,” Skew added, noting renewed strength in the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY), which gained 0.4%.
Last week, the DXY hit its highest levels since late 2022.
CPI leads “huge week for inflation”
In the U.S., attention focuses on the week’s macroeconomic data prints, headlined by the September CPI report.
After jobs data last week showed that employment levels remained resilient despite anti-inflation moves from the Fed, Bitcoin briefly recoiled over fears that officials would enact another interest rate hike, further pressuring liquidity.
While BTC/USD rebounded, those fears remain.
“A good CPI data on Thursday could provide a chance to break out from this range, whereas a hot CPI would push us back into the range lows with the premise that the FED might be forced to hike 25bsp,” part of weekend analysis from popular commentator CrypNuevo read.
According to data from CME Group’s FedWatch Tool, markets are increasingly betting on rates staying at current levels on decision day, set for Nov. 1.
Beyond CPI, this week will see the Producer Price Index (PPI) release, along with more jobless claims and a total of 12 Fed speakers delivering commentary. The minutes of the Fed meeting around the previous rates decision will also be unveiled on Oct. 11.
Key Events This Week:
1. September PPI Inflation – Wednesday
2. Fed Meeting Minutes – Wednesday
3. September CPI Inflation – Thursday
4. OPEC Monthly Report – Thursday
5. Jobless Claims Data – Thursday
6. Total of 12 Fed speaker events
Huge week for inflation and the Fed.
— The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) October 8, 2023
“Huge week for inflation and the Fed,” financial commentary resource The Kobeissi Letter summarized in part of an X thread.
“In addition, markets will react to geopolitical tensions from this weekend. Volatility is the new normal.”
NVT signal spikes to highest since 2018
Within Bitcoin, the network value to transaction (NVT) signal leads the pack on on-chain metric volatility to start the week.
NVT, which its creator, Dmity Kalichkin, describes as a “PE ratio” for Bitcoin, seeks to estimate local BTC price tops and bottoms by comparing market cap to daily on-chain transaction values.
The latest data from on-chain analytics firm Glassnode shows NVT hitting its highest levels in five years — over 1,750 and far beyond its position at the start of 2023.
NVT has undergone various overhauls in recent years, as the dynamics of the BTC supply call for different guidance figures for determining price tops.
“If the trend towards side-chains and private transactions continues, we can expect less-and-less transactions to be captured in the public on-chain data (reducing the relative value of the “T” in NVT),” Charles Edwards, founder of quantitative Bitcoin and digital asset fund Capriole Investments, wrote in part of his own research in 2019.
“This could cause the fair value NVT range to increase with time.”
Analyzing the NVT spike, crypto market intelligence platform IntoTheBlock suggested that it was representative of a broader metamorphosis.
“The lens through which we view Bitcoin’s value is changing,” it wrote at the weekend.
“Transaction value & volume were once the go-to metrics. However, recent spikes in NVT ratios hint that Bitcoin’s value is now moving independently of transactional utility, hinting at its growing role as a store of value.”
Neither fearful, nor greedy
Providing a fleeting insight into crypto market sentiment, the classic Crypto Fear & Greed Index reflects an overall air of indecision.
Related: Bitcoin bull market awaits as US faces ‘bear steepener’ — Arthur Hayes
The average investor is ambivalent when it comes to the market, as shown by the Index sticking rigidly to its “neutral” territory.
As of Oct. 9, Fear & Greed is at 50/100 — exactly half way along its scale between two sentiment extremes.
Zooming out, recent months have marked some of its least volatile conditions on record.
“You know the drill, i will be mass buying when we drop down to Extreme Fear and a $20,000 Bitcoin,” popular trader Crypto Tony reacted to the latest data.
“May take a while, but i feel Q1 / Q2 2024 will be the ticket. If i see a change in behaviour i will re-evaluate.”
Crypto Tony referenced an inkling that BTC/USD will return to $20,000 for a final retest before expanding higher after the 2024 block subsidy halving.
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.
Cryptocurrency
Crypto Analyst Says Altcoins May Take 2 Months to Recover, Here’s Why
With the current state of the market, after one of the largest liquidations in the history of the crypto industry, an analyst is insisting that altcoins could take two months to recover from the gains they have shed over the last couple of days.
According to a tweet by crypto and stock market analyst Matthew Hyland, it is unlikely that altcoins will see a straight recovery within the next few days. Judging by past data, the cryptocurrencies could even take more than two months to find their way back up.
Altcoins Need 2 Months to Recover
Following bitcoin’s (BTC) $10,000 price slump over the weekend and into Monday, the altcoin market bled out, with many registering massive double-digit declines within hours. This market wipeout was triggered by United States President Donald Trump imposing tariffs on Canada, Mexico, and China.
The trade tariffs announcement led to one of the largest dumps in crypto history, with over 700,000 traders liquidating for more than $2.3 billion and the crypto market cap plummeting by at least 12% within a day.
Although the broader crypto market has shown signs of recovery within the last 24 hours, especially with President Trump temporarily pausing the tariffs against Canada and Mexico, most cryptocurrencies are still far from their pre-weekend levels.
Hyland stated that it is likely that the low is in for this cycle. He cited a similar liquidation event seen in 2020 during the COVID-19 crash, explaining that altcoins took more than two months to recover from the decline they saw at the time fully.
No High Expectations
Furthermore, the analyst highlighted more recent market liquidations witnessed during the TerraLuna dump in mid-2022 and in the aftermath of the bankrupt crypto exchange FTX implosion in late 2022. He asserted that recovery from previous experiences all took months.
Hyland urged crypto traders to keep their expectations “tempered” because they will not see the price highs recorded by most altcoins in December 2024 for at least two months. Bearing in mind that the crypto market is unpredictable and “can do anything,” Hyland still insisted that traders should expect the recovery to take time.
“I will gladly be wrong, but assuming there will be a straight recovery within days is just not likely and will probably make you uneasy if it doesn’t happen. Even a V shape like 2020 took weeks with many dips on the way back up,” the analyst stated.
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Cryptocurrency
Arthur Hayes Slams US Bitcoin Reserve Plans and Crypto Regulation Efforts
BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes has dismissed the idea of a U.S. Bitcoin reserve, calling it a politically driven and impractical concept.
In his February 5 essay called “The Genie,” Hayes argued that government stockpiling of the cryptocurrency would serve political interests rather than financial stability.
Bitcoin Reserve Would Be a Political Tool
“What can be bought can be sold,” he wrote, warning that politicians acquire assets for short-term gains. While some see Bitcoin as the “hardest” form of money, he pointed out that the U.S. government has no fundamental economic use for it. Instead, he suggested that political leaders would exploit its price fluctuations to serve their agendas rather than embrace its ideological underpinnings.
Hayes criticized Senator Cynthia Lummis’s proposal for a Bitcoin Strategic Reserve (BSR), arguing that if President Trump were to authorize the purchase of one million BTC, prices would rise temporarily but stall once buying stopped.
He also predicted that if the head of state failed to address major voter concerns like inflation, foreign conflicts, and corruption, Democrats could regain power in 2026. If they did, they would likely view the Bitcoin reserve as a convenient source of funds and sell it off to finance new policies. According to him, this would create uncertainty about the future of the government-held BTC, undermining confidence in the market.
The former exchange executive also questioned whether the administration would engage with Bitcoin beyond holding it as a passive asset. “Would they run nodes? Sponsor developers? Or just treat it like a trophy?” he asked.
Hayes further accused Trump’s team of using Bitcoin’s volatility to secure political gains, suggesting the reserve could become a tool for campaign fundraising.
Discussions about a federal Bitcoin reserve gained momentum after the President announced a sovereign wealth fund, with Lummis hinting that it could be used to buy Bitcoin. Prediction market platform Polymarket currently places the odds of a U.S. Bitcoin stockpile before the end of 2025 at 46%.
Regulatory Complexity
Hayes also spoke on crypto regulation, condemning what he called the “Frankenstein crypto bill.” He argued that any new framework would likely be excessively complex and prescriptive, favoring only the largest players in the industry who could afford the high costs of compliance.
He explained that investors with large stakes in centralized financial firms are the most likely to push for regulation, as they have the influence to shape policy in their favor. In contrast, developers in decentralized finance lack the resources to lobby for their interests.
The crypto investor warned that regulatory compliance would be affordable only to firms with deep pockets like Coinbase and BlackRock, reinforcing monopolies rather than creating competition. He also cautioned entrepreneurs against relocating to the U.S. for regulatory clarity, arguing that systemic corporate interests would stifle innovation and block smaller players from succeeding.
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Cryptocurrency
Dubai to Host Second Edition of Middle East Blockchain Awards as MENA Drives Global Crypto Growth
[PRESS RELEASE – Dubai, United Arab Emirates, February 6th, 2025]
The Middle East Blockchain Awards (MEBA) returns for its second year after the success of its inaugural edition, with Dubai selected as the host city. The ceremony will take place at the iconic Jumeirah Burj Al Arab on April 29, coinciding with the TOKEN2049 conference. The event will unite industry leaders, innovators, and visionaries to celebrate achievements in blockchain and cryptocurrency.
MEBA 2025 arrives at a pivotal moment amid the rapid acceleration of blockchain adoption across the MENA region. Recent data from Chainalysis positioned the region as the seventh-largest cryptocurrency market in the world. Between July 2023 and June 2024, MENA received an estimated on-chain value of $338.7 billion—accounting for 7.5% of the global transaction volume.
Notably, the UAE has emerged as a global leader in digital asset adoption. According to Henley & Partners’ latest report, the UAE ranks third worldwide in digital currency usage. Chainalysis data also revealed that the UAE received approximately $34billion in cryptocurrencies between June 2023 and July 2024, experiencing a robust 42% year-on-year growth. This is driven by the country’s progressive approach to blockchain technology, with cities like Dubai establishing themselves as key innovation hubs.
Max Palethorpe, Founder and CEO of Hoko Group, the official organizers of MEBA, commented: “The Middle East Blockchain Awards provides a unique platform to recognize the incredible achievements that are driving the next wave of innovation in blockchain and digital transformation. With the UAE leading the charge in the Web 3.0 revolution, it’s inspiring to see industry leaders coming together to shape the future of this dynamic industry. This year’s event promises to be a true celebration of the pioneers who are pushing boundaries and setting new standards.”
Returning as a judge for the second consecutive year, Dr. Marwan Al Zarouni, CEO, AI for Dubai Department of Economy and Tourism and CEO of Dubai Blockchain Centre (DBCC) added: “I am thrilled to be part of the judging panel once again and witness the rapid evolution of blockchain technologies in the MENA region. With the UAE at the forefront of this transformation, the government’s forward-thinking approach, combined with the region’s dynamic innovation ecosystem, is accelerating the adoption of Web 3.0 technologies. The Middle East Blockchain Awards captures this momentum and further cements the UAE’s position as a global hub for blockchain excellence.”
Other judges of the Middle East Blockchain Awards this year include:
● Jumana Al Darwish, Award Winning Social Entrepreneur and Founder of Happy Box
● Scott Melker, Host, The Wolf of All Streets Podcast, and Crypto TownHall
● Mario Nawfal, Host of Largest Show on X and Founder of International Blockchain Consulting Group
● Saqr Ereiqat, Secretary General of Dubai Digital Assets Association and Co-Founder of Crypto Oasis
● Jorge Sebastiao, Co-Founder Global Blockchain Organization and Co-Founder EcoX
● Matthies Mende, Founder and CEO of Bonuz and Co-Founder of Dubai Blockchain Center
MEBA aims to foster innovation, recognize excellence, and set new standards for blockchain and Web 3.0 projects across the region. In its inaugural edition in 2022, MEBA partnered with Abu Dhabi Global Market’s flagship platform, Abu Dhabi Finance Week, and the Middle East, Africa, and Asia Crypto and Blockchain Association (MEAACBA).
Submissions are now open at www.mebawards.io, where participants can find additional details about the categories and the nomination process.
About Hoko Abu Dhabi
Hoko Agency is a diversified and innovative company that owns and operates a diverse portfolio of businesses within the sectors of Finance, Blockchain, Entertainment, Sport and F&B. Hoko strives to be the best-in-class in each of their service lines; offering quality products, world class service and fitting solutions that go beyond the industry’s expectations.
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