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War, CPI and $28K BTC price — 5 things to know in Bitcoin this week

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Bitcoin (BTC) starts the second week of October up 4% month-to-date as geopolitical instability provides a snap market focus.

BTC price action continues to hold steady at $28,000, but what will happen next as markets react to the war in Israel?

In what could end up a volatile period for risk assets, Bitcoin has yet to offer a significant reaction, spending the weekend in a tight corridor.

That could soon change, however, as the Wall Street open comes amid a hike in oil and gold, along with U.S. dollar strength.

Macroeconomic triggers are also far from lacking, with the coming days due to see the September print of the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI). In the wake of surprise employment data last week, the readout holds additional importance for the Federal Reserve.

Beneath the hood, meanwhile, on-chain metrics are pointing to interesting times for Bitcoin, as BTC/USD trades in a key range, which has formed a watershed area since 2021.

Cointelegraph looks at these factors and more in the weekly rundown of potential BTC price triggers to come.

Bitcoin “illiquid and choppy” as weekly close passes

The weekend saw market participants fully focused on the abrupt breakout of war in Israel, and as markets themselves reopen, change is already afoot.

For Bitcoin, however, the ongoing events have yet to deliver a palpable chain reaction, data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView shows.

BTC price action has centered on $28,000 since Friday, and that level remains key as traders hope for a resistance/support flip.

BTC/USD 1-hour chart. Source: TradingView

“Nothing special going on this weekend,” Daan Crypto Trades summarized on X (formerly Twitter) into the weekly close.

“Would expect volumes to pick up a bit soon but ultimately we should be hovering around this price region until futures open back up tonight.”

A further post noted that Bitcoin had yet to decisively break through the 200-week moving average (MA), which sits at $28,176 at the time of writing.

Analyzing the 4-hour chart, popular trader Skew described BTC price behavior as “illiquid and choppy.”

“Bitcoin’s bullish flag is still in play — but it is taking too long to play out,” fellow trader Jelle continued, zooming out to monthly performance.

“October is generally the most bullish month of the year, thus I’m still expecting this one to break out upwards.”

BTC/USD annotated chart. Source: Jelle/X

War returns to crypto observers’ radar

When it comes to price triggers, however, the unfolding conflict in Israel has Bitcoin and crypto market participants anticipating the bulk of volatility is still to come.

With the memory of Bitcoin’s reaction to the war in Ukraine in February 2022 still in the background, Jelle was cautious over what might happen to BTC/USD next.

“All I do know is that the Ukraine war triggered an 8% down candle, that was erased within a day,” part of the day’s X commentary explained.

Mike McGlone, senior macro strategist at Bloomberg Intelligence, meanwhile described Bitcoin as now showing a “risk-off tilt” among traders.

“My bias is the downward sloping 100-week moving average is likely to win the battle vs. the up trending 50-week. Spiking #crudeoil is a liquidity pressure factor,” he wrote on Oct. 8.

BTC/USD vs. Fed funds futures with 50, 100-week MA chart. Source: Mike McGlone/X

At the time, the 100-week and 50-week MAs were at $28,938 and $24,890, respectively.

McGlone touched on an unfolding macro asset phenomenon, with gold up 1% on the day and Brent crude up 3.25% ahead of the Wall Street open.

“Markets reacting quite defensively,” Skew added, noting renewed strength in the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY), which gained 0.4%.

Last week, the DXY hit its highest levels since late 2022.

DXY 1-hour chart. Source: TradingView

CPI leads “huge week for inflation”

In the U.S., attention focuses on the week’s macroeconomic data prints, headlined by the September CPI report.

After jobs data last week showed that employment levels remained resilient despite anti-inflation moves from the Fed, Bitcoin briefly recoiled over fears that officials would enact another interest rate hike, further pressuring liquidity.

While BTC/USD rebounded, those fears remain.

“A good CPI data on Thursday could provide a chance to break out from this range, whereas a hot CPI would push us back into the range lows with the premise that the FED might be forced to hike 25bsp,” part of weekend analysis from popular commentator CrypNuevo read.

Fed target rate probabilities chart. Source: CME Group

According to data from CME Group’s FedWatch Tool, markets are increasingly betting on rates staying at current levels on decision day, set for Nov. 1.

Beyond CPI, this week will see the Producer Price Index (PPI) release, along with more jobless claims and a total of 12 Fed speakers delivering commentary. The minutes of the Fed meeting around the previous rates decision will also be unveiled on Oct. 11.

“Huge week for inflation and the Fed,” financial commentary resource The Kobeissi Letter summarized in part of an X thread.

“In addition, markets will react to geopolitical tensions from this weekend. Volatility is the new normal.”

NVT signal spikes to highest since 2018

Within Bitcoin, the network value to transaction (NVT) signal leads the pack on on-chain metric volatility to start the week.

NVT, which its creator, Dmity Kalichkin, describes as a “PE ratio” for Bitcoin, seeks to estimate local BTC price tops and bottoms by comparing market cap to daily on-chain transaction values.

The latest data from on-chain analytics firm Glassnode shows NVT hitting its highest levels in five years — over 1,750 and far beyond its position at the start of 2023.

Bitcoin NVT signal chart. Source: Glassnode/X

NVT has undergone various overhauls in recent years, as the dynamics of the BTC supply call for different guidance figures for determining price tops.

“If the trend towards side-chains and private transactions continues, we can expect less-and-less transactions to be captured in the public on-chain data (reducing the relative value of the “T” in NVT),” Charles Edwards, founder of quantitative Bitcoin and digital asset fund Capriole Investments, wrote in part of his own research in 2019.

“This could cause the fair value NVT range to increase with time.”

Analyzing the NVT spike, crypto market intelligence platform IntoTheBlock suggested that it was representative of a broader metamorphosis.

“The lens through which we view Bitcoin’s value is changing,” it wrote at the weekend.

“Transaction value & volume were once the go-to metrics. However, recent spikes in NVT ratios hint that Bitcoin’s value is now moving independently of transactional utility, hinting at its growing role as a store of value.”

Neither fearful, nor greedy

Providing a fleeting insight into crypto market sentiment, the classic Crypto Fear & Greed Index reflects an overall air of indecision.

Related: Bitcoin bull market awaits as US faces ‘bear steepener’ — Arthur Hayes

The average investor is ambivalent when it comes to the market, as shown by the Index sticking rigidly to its “neutral” territory.

As of Oct. 9, Fear & Greed is at 50/100 — exactly half way along its scale between two sentiment extremes.

Zooming out, recent months have marked some of its least volatile conditions on record.

“You know the drill, i will be mass buying when we drop down to Extreme Fear and a $20,000 Bitcoin,” popular trader Crypto Tony reacted to the latest data.

“May take a while, but i feel Q1 / Q2 2024 will be the ticket. If i see a change in behaviour i will re-evaluate.”

Crypto Tony referenced an inkling that BTC/USD will return to $20,000 for a final retest before expanding higher after the 2024 block subsidy halving.

Crypto Fear & Greed Index (screenshot). Source: Alternative.me

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.

Cryptocurrency

Pengu, Bonk Lead Top Meme Coin Gainers as Some Analysts Think Solaxy and Flockerz are Next to Pump

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It’s been a wild week in the crypto market, with Bitcoin grabbing headlines as it soared to a new all-time high of $108,268 before crashing back under $100k. Meanwhile, meme coins have followed suit, with majors like Dogecoin climbing over $0.41 before falling to $0.325 today.

Behind the volatility in these headline-grabbing tokens, meme coins have been on a tear. The most explosive gains have come from newer tokens like $PENGU and Solana meme coins like Bonk, both of which have been working their way up the meme coin charts.

Meanwhile, meme coin ICOs like Flockerz and Solaxy are seeing increasing momentum.

Let’s take a closer look at all the action in the meme coin market as we head into the final stretch of 2024.

Meme Coin Sector Marches Upward, Led by $PENGU and $BONK

The meme coin sector spent much of early December extending its winning streak, adding more than $17 billion to its total market cap between December 1 and December 8. The sector’s valuation has fallen to $96 billion in recent days, mostly driven by Dogecoin’s losses.

But look beyond Dogecoin, and the meme coin market offers a very different picture. In the past 24 hours alone, Pepe is up 11.7%, Shiba Inu is up 8.4%, and Dogwifhat is up 5.3%.

The biggest winners of this upward trend have been tokens like Pudgy Penguins ($PENGU) and Bonk, which are up 11.2% and 12.3%, respectively, since yesterday.

Bonk’s gains helped it overtake $WIF to become the top Solana meme coin by market cap—a cat-and-mouse game the two tokens have played for months, and which Bonk looks increasingly likely to win.

Plus, technical analysis indicates there could be more gains for $BONK just around the corner. Using Elliott Wave analysis, @ManofBitcoin on X stated a potential pump to $0.000118 might come when Bonk breaks out of its current trend.

$BONK: The price has formed a wick to the downside but the daily candle closed above the trend line. So wave-4 is still valid. pic.twitter.com/3bz8iZ7EFX

— Man of Bitcoin (@Manofbitcoin) December 20, 2024

The gains in $PENGU are especially noteworthy because they represent continued momentum since the token listed on Binance on December 17. $PENGU is up nearly 500% since the listing and has a market cap of $1.8 billion, making it the 6th-largest meme coin overall within just days of its launch.

Meme coin traders and analysts have taken note of an emerging trend for which $PENGU is just the latest data point: Binance has the power to create winners out of emerging tokens in the meme coin market simply by listing them.

Figuring out which tokens the exchange will list next is now one of the best ways to find profits in the meme coin market.

Some Analysts Eye Emerging Meme Coins $SOLX and $FLOCK for Massive Gains

While it’s impossible to know which coins Binance’s listing teams have their eyes on next, a number of analysts are watching two emerging meme coins that they think could be destined for the exchange.

The first is Solaxy ($SOLX), a new project that plans to build the first Layer-2 scaling solution for Solana. While the $SOLX token is primarily a utility token, it makes a nod to the meme coin market by using a surfing, mustachioed Pepe as its mascot.

The $SOLX token presale is on now and has raised more than $4 million in less than a week, raising expectations that this project could be huge. A couple of analysts are certainly excited about Solaxy because of its potential to benefit from the meme coin supercycle.

The Solana blockchain already struggles from congestion issues, and a surge in meme coin trading could make these problems worse. Solaxy provides a solution for meme coin traders by offering a faster and cheaper Solana-based network for executions.

Another project on crypto some analysts’ radar is Flockerz ($FLOCK), a viral new meme coin that’s pioneering a vote-to-earn mechanism to engage and reward its community.

Under the vote-to-earn scheme, traditional staking rewards are thrown out the window. Instead, proposals for new development, partnerships, and how to use the $FLOCK treasury are voted on by the Flockerz community. Every time investors vote, they receive $FLOCK tokens as a reward.

This approach has the benefit of bringing the community together to build a more vibrant project while ensuring that investors get a real say in the project’s future through their $FLOCK tokens. Analysts like ClayBro are bullish on this approach, declaring Flockerz a ‘top meme coin to buy now.’

$FLOCK is also a hit with investors, who have poured more than $7 million into the Flockerz token presale so far. With that kind of backing, it’s likely that Binance might closely be watching this presale and could put its weight on the scales with a listing after the $FLOCK token launches.

Disclaimer: The above article is sponsored content; it’s written by a third party. CryptoPotato doesn’t endorse or assume responsibility for the content, advertising, products, quality, accuracy, or other materials on this page. Nothing in it should be construed as financial advice. Readers are strongly advised to verify the information independently and carefully before engaging with any company or project mentioned and do their own research. Investing in cryptocurrencies carries a risk of capital loss, and readers are also advised to consult a professional before making any decisions that may or may not be based on the above-sponsored content.

Readers are also advised to read CryptoPotato’s full disclaimer.

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Nigeria Arrests 792 in Landmark Crypto-Romance Scam Raid

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Nigeria’s Economic and Financial Crimes Commission (EFCC) on December 10 arrested 792 people linked to a massive crypto-romance scam operating out of Lagos.

The suspects, who included 148 Chinese, 40 Filipinos, and several other foreign nationals, were caught during a surprise raid at an imposing seven-story structure known as Big Leaf in the affluent Victoria Island neighborhood.

Sophisticated Scam Network Unveiled

According to information shared by the agency, the operation followed intelligence reports, which indicated that Big Leaf was a hub for fraudulent activities targeting victims around the globe.

Investigations revealed a highly organized network where foreign operatives collaborated with local accomplices to swindle unwitting individuals through romance and investment hoaxes.

The Nigerian recruits, chosen for their proficiency with computers, were reportedly trained for at least two weeks on how to impersonate foreign women and engage victims in romantic and business conversations.

They then created fake profiles on social media platforms such as WhatsApp, Instagram, and Telegram, which they used to lure targets to invest in bogus crypto schemes hosted on a platform called Yooto[.]com. The website required users to pay an activation fee starting from $35, with promises of high returns.

Per investigators, after the Nigerians initiated contact with potential victims and built their confidence, they handed over communication to the foreign operatives who then executed the scams. This division of labor ensured that the local accomplices were kept in the dark about the full extent of the criminal enterprise.

During their inquiries, authorities found at least 500 SIM cards and high-end computers on the premises, which were presumably used to maintain anonymity and target individuals primarily from North America and Europe.

Further, they stated that the Nigerian recruits received cash payments for their part in the con, with no documentation, helping to obscure the identity of the operation’s masterminds, who remain at large.

The agency is working with international partners to uncover the full extent of the scheme and any connections it may have to organized crime networks.

Large-Scale Crypto Fraud Schemes

Crypto scams have been on the rise recently, with a study by the Australian Cyber Security Centre (ACSC) revealing that Australians had lost nearly $270 million to fake investments.

Elsewhere, South Korean law enforcement apprehended 215 people accused of perpetrating a $232 million crypto rip-off. Among those arrested was a popular YouTuber with more than 600,000 followers who allegedly ran a phony investment consulting firm pushing a purported digital asset product promising 20-fold returns.

Also, in October, Hong Kong police dismantled a huge cross-border fraud operation that used deepfakes to lure men into deceptive crypto investments.

Like in the Nigerian case, the Hong Kong group, consisting of at least 27 individuals, operated from a building in the city’s Hung Hom area. Upon raiding the facility, authorities recovered computers, mobile phones, and about $25,000 in suspected criminal proceeds.

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Ethereum Price Analysis: Following a 15% Weekly Crash, What’s Next for ETH?

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Ethereum has once again failed to reclaim the critical $4K resistance level, leading to a notable decline in price. However, the cryptocurrency has now reached a significant support zone, where a rebound followed by consolidation is anticipated.

By Shayan

The Daily Chart

Ethereum’s $4K price region has proven to be a critical resistance zone over the past year, consistently halting bullish advances due to strong selling pressure.

Most recently, the price faced another rejection at this level, triggering a significant sell-off. This decline was further fueled by Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell’s remarks, suggesting the central bank might pause its current policy of lowering key interest rates.

Despite this setback, ETH has found support at the $3K level, a crucial price zone, leading to a rebound above the $3.5K threshold. Currently, the cryptocurrency is consolidating within the $3.5K–$4K range, with expectations of a potential bullish attempt to retest the $4K resistance following this consolidation phase.

eth_price_chart_2112241
Source: TradingView

The 4-Hour Chart

On the 4-hour chart, Ethereum’s rejection at the $4K resistance triggered a sharp decline, breaking below the ascending wedge pattern—a clear indication of sellers’ dominance. This bearish momentum pushed the price lower, leading to a pullback before resuming its downtrend.

At present, Ethereum is trading within a significant support zone, defined by the 0.5 ($3.2K)–0.618 ($3K) Fibonacci retracement levels.

This is expected to provide stability in the short to mid-term, with the likelihood of continued consolidation and minor retracements. If this support holds, buyers may re-enter the market, setting the stage for another attempt to challenge the $4K resistance.

eth_price_chart_2112242
Source: TradingView

By Shayan

Ethereum’s failure to reclaim the $4K threshold triggered significant liquidations in the futures market, followed by a flash crash that appears to have substantially cooled the broader sentiment.

The chart illustrates the funding rates metric, a reliable indicator of futures market sentiment. While Ethereum’s aggregate funding rates saw a sharp spike last week, the rejection at $4K led to substantial liquidations, bringing funding rates back to levels conducive to a bullish trend.

This cooling effect could pave the way for a more sustainable rally in the coming weeks. A similar pattern was observed in January 2024 when a sharp decline in funding rates calmed the futures market, setting the stage for Ethereum’s next major impulsive rally. This historical precedent suggests that the current market reset could mark the beginning of another bullish phase.

eth_funding_rates_2112241
Source: CryptoQuant
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Disclaimer: Information found on CryptoPotato is those of writers quoted. It does not represent the opinions of CryptoPotato on whether to buy, sell, or hold any investments. You are advised to conduct your own research before making any investment decisions. Use provided information at your own risk. See Disclaimer for more information.

Cryptocurrency charts by TradingView.

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