TL:DR;

• XRP received a massive regulatory boost after Trump’s election victory, and the landscape is also expected to get better during his upcoming administration.
• With some notable reports on the matter of Ripple’s potential prioritization under the new government, the question arises of what could happen to the token’s price.

XRP’s Potential Under Trump

Ripple’s cross-border token exploded shortly after the US elections due to the long-awaited change in the upcoming government, especially in the SEC’s leadership. Most recently, the asset touched its 2018 all-time high of $3.4, which represented a massive 460% surge since early November when it stood below $0.6.

The latest rally came after reports that the president-elect, who steps into office on January 20, will focus on US-based cryptocurrency projects, such as Solana, Cardano, and Ripple.

It seems a bit far-fetched now to consider that any crypto asset, including BTC, could be included in the US treasury, but there have been many reports suggesting that it is possible under a favorable administration. Consequently, we decided to ask ChatGPT what would happen to XRP’s price should something as shocking as this indeed take place in the next four years.

The popular AI chatbot responded that the first price target for the third-largest cryptocurrency would be $6 before it could really take off. Based on a positive market environment and a more suitable regulatory landscape, XRP, alongside ADA and SOL, could continue its rise. ChatGPT laid out two scenarios for a price peak.

Optimistic Scenario: Some analysts speculate XRP could reach $10-$15 in the medium term if added to the reserve and supported by consistent utility and adoption.
Aggressive Projections: In a highly favorable scenario, where XRP gains significant institutional adoption globally, prices could exceed $20 or even $50 over time.

It’s safe to say that even the more modest scenario sounds quite bullish and maybe slightly unrealistic. A price level of $10 would put XRP’s market cap at over $570 billion – meaning Ripple’s token will be way ahead of ETH (if it remains close to its current level of $410 billion).

The $50 projection would mean a market cap of well over $2.5 trillion, which will make it the number one cryptocurrency. As of January 19, this sounds exaggerated, to say the least.

XRP Will Face Challenges

ChatGPT further outlined some of the challenges ahead of XRP, most of which are related to the competition. Aside from the aforementioned ADA and SOL, Ripple’s asset will have to fight an uphill battle against BTC.

Moreover, the AI platform warned that Trump’s plans might have changed with the introduction of his own crypto asset. As reported during the weekend, the president-elect announced the launch of a meme coin called Official Trump (TRUMP). It has already taken the crypto world by storm, becoming the second-largest meme token at one point before retracing slightly.

Nevertheless, it could be a viable competition to XRP and the rest of the market as its impact on the industry is still debated.

Ether (ETH), the second largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization ranking, recently soared from around $3,000 earlier this month to $3,500 for the first time this year before it lost some of its momentum.

In a recently published crypto derivatives report, Bybit and research firm Block Scholes highlighted several factors, including macroeconomic developments and trading signals from the spot and futures market metrics, that could give ETH the much-needed push to reclaim higher price levels.

What Could Drive ETH’s Surge?

Perpetual swap funding rates have fluctuated in alignment with spot prices while maintaining a positive record for most of this month, especially for ETH. Bybit’s report explained that this translates to a “strong demand for long positions in the contract despite the downturn, or at least a lack of interest in short positions, due to liquidations or other factors.”

Additionally, the crypto options market reflects a mix of short-term caution and long-term optimism. Due to uncertainty, traders are hedging against potential short-term price drops. However, they remain optimistic about the market’s long-term prospects, as the bullish skew in longer-dated options contracts shows.

Moreover, the recent Consumer Price Index (CPI) data triggered a change in market structure as BTC, ETH, and many altcoins headed north. The bullish volatility smile indicates increased speculation and betting on potential price uptrends.

Meanwhile, news about the incoming inauguration of the pro-crypto President-elect, Donald Trump, has recently boosted the market’s uptrend. Agreeably, the crypto community eagerly expects a new America with less strict crypto trading and investment laws.

Thus, investors have switched attention to digital assets, mostly ETH and BTC, as they have struggled to gain regulatory clarity involving these assets over the past few years and survived different wavering market conditions.

More Altcoins to Record Uptrends

Like ETH, a few altcoins have also recently displayed bullish momentum. These include SOL, XRP, LTC, and others. Due to XRP’s 40% surge over the past week to reach $3.40, a few bullish and optimistic traders predict it may soar to $100 soon.

Meanwhile, SOL became the biggest beneficiary of the TRUMP-induced price rally and shot up to a new all-time high of its own of almost $300 at press time.

Bitcoin’s $90K support region has demonstrated its strength, sparking a notable bullish surge. The price is now nearing its all-time high of $108K, where a breakout could ignite a short liquidation cascade, potentially pushing the asset into uncharted territory.

Technical Analysis

By Shayan

The Daily Chart

The $90K support zone has proven to be a robust floor, holding the price steady in recent months and showcasing strong buyer confidence. This resurgence of buying interest has driven Bitcoin above the channel’s middle trendline, positioning it close to the ATH at $108K.

That peak level represents a substantial resistance region with concentrated supply and heightened selling pressure. As Bitcoin approaches this critical threshold, short-term volatility is expected due to the ongoing battle between buyers and sellers.

If bullish momentum continues, reclaiming the ATH at $108K could trigger a short liquidation cascade, likely resulting in another surge as market participants rush to cover positions.

The 4-Hour Chart

The lower timeframe highlights the importance of the $90K support, which has consistently halted downward momentum in recent months. This has fueled an impulsive bullish move, driving Bitcoin toward the $108K resistance zone.

This region not only represents Bitcoin’s ATH but also aligns with the ascending channel’s middle boundary, further reinforcing it as a critical juncture. A successful breakout and consolidation above this level could pave the way for a sustained rally toward new highs.

The upcoming price action at the $108K resistance region will be crucial in determining Bitcoin’s next trend, with heightened volatility expected in the short term.

On-chain Analysis

By Shayan

The realized price of UTXO age bands, particularly for the 1-3 month cohort, offers critical insights into short-term holding behavior and broader market sentiment. This metric represents the average acquisition price for recent buyers, acting as a dynamic support or resistance line that reflects market confidence.

When Bitcoin is above this short-term cohort’s realized price, it signals growing bullish momentum. This indicates that new buyers are confident in holding their positions, even at elevated price levels. Conversely, a drop below this threshold suggests a heightened risk of sell-offs, as these participants face unrealized losses.

Recently, the realized price for the 1-3 month UTXO cohort at the $90K region has acted as a crucial support level, pushing the asset up toward its ATH. Bitcoin holding above this level signals a bullish sentiment in the market, with the potential for the price to continue its upward trajectory.

However, if the cryptocurrency breaks below this dynamic support line, market sentiment could shift to a fearful state, increasing the likelihood of a distribution phase.