Bitcoin’s muted volatility phase continues, with structural support holding firm. The market’s next decisive move will likely be shaped by reactions at the $114,000 and $111,000 support zones.

BTC Price Analysis: Technicals

By Shayan

The Daily Chart

Bitcoin continues to consolidate within the narrow $116K–$120K range, marked by low volatility and subdued price action. This sideways movement suggests an ongoing equilibrium between buying and selling pressure, possibly due to capital rotation into the altcoin markets.

A key concern is the emergence of a bearish divergence between the price and the RSI indicator, indicating a fading of bullish momentum. This divergence increases the likelihood of renewed selling pressure and suggests a possible continuation of the correction phase. If so, a move toward the $111,000 support level becomes probable.

Despite this, the broader market structure remains bullish as long as the $111,000 level holds. If this price point acts as a reliable demand zone, an eventual breakout above $120K could resume the larger uptrend.

The 4-Hour Chart

On the lower timeframe, BTC is forming a bullish flag pattern, a classic consolidation formation within an uptrend. The price has consistently printed higher highs and higher lows, supported by an ascending trendline acting as dynamic support,  currently near the $114K level.

As long as this trendline remains intact, the market is likely to continue consolidating inside the flag, which aligns with a healthy correction.

However, a breakdown below this ascending support would likely trigger a sharper pullback toward $111K, forming a key liquidity zone.

On-chain Analysis

By Shayan

The latest futures order flow shows a noticeable surge in small-sized positions, a strong indication that retail traders are actively participating in the current price range. This spike reveals a high level of retail engagement, especially within the $116K–$120K consolidation zone.

Interestingly, large-scale sell-side activity (represented by green circles), typically associated with institutions or whales, is not present. These major players are not offloading their positions, suggesting that they remain confident in the ongoing bullish trend and do not expect a major reversal just yet.

This setup, with retail activity high and smart money quiet, has historically preceded major bullish moves. While the market may seem stagnant, this phase often serves as a cooling-off period before another leg of the upward trend. The lack of panic from whales adds weight to the theory that this is a healthy consolidation, not a trend reversal.

Once the current range resolves, a fresh wave of demand may enter the market, likely pushing Bitcoin toward new highs.

BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes has declared that the OG NFT collection CryptoPunks will outperform Ethereum (ETH) in this cycle, citing internet status culture as the primary driver.

With NFT market volumes exploding and Ethereum showing bullish momentum, his forecast has ignited debate among analysts and collectors alike.

Scarcity, Status, and Sentiment

Hayes believes that as ETH gains institutional traction, holders will increasingly flex their wealth through digital art and status NFTs like CryptoPunks.

“Cryptopunks will outperform $ETH this cycle in $ terms bc $ETH bag holders will flex in NFTs,” he tweeted. “It’s an internet status game.”

According to the Maelstrom Fund CIO, the entire global economy is built on status, and the “internet society” is no different. His argument has resonated across the NFT community, with investor Parzival highlighting the scarcity factor:

“8,000,000,000 people on earth, 10,000 CryptoPunks. Do the math.”

Others, like digital art collector Balon, highlighted the skyrocketing floor 12 hours earlier:

“CryptoPunks floor is already at 100 ETH? Things are about to get crazy.”

This frenzy isn’t theoretical either; NFT enthusiast Jediwolf reported on July 21 a “spectacular” sweep of 76 Punks for approximately $13.5 million within 5 hours, the largest since 2021.

On that same date, CoinGecko brought attention to a massive $1 billion single-day surge in NFT market cap, jumping from $5.1 billion to $6.3 billion. Daily volumes spiked 287% to $37.4 million, fueling renewed speculation that non-fungible tokens could be entering a fresh phase of explosive growth.

Animoca’s Yat Siu noted the correlation in a recent post on X, stating that the last time ETH peaked in late 2021 was also NFT season. CryptoPunks leads the charge, and their floor price is now at 48 ETH, which is about $175,726, according to live NFTpricefloor data.

Ethereum Demand Surge Sets Stage for NFT Boom

Hayes’ prediction comes amid a roaring ETH rally powered by growing institutional demand. Since May 15, spot Ethereum ETFs and corporate treasuries have bought 2.83 million ETH for more than $10 billion. This is over 32 times the net new supply, and Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan has projected demand to hit $20 billion in the next year.

At the time of this writing, the world’s second-largest cryptocurrency was consolidating around $3,672, down 1% in the last 24 hours but up more than 63% across 30 days. Earlier in the week, the asset broke past $3,800, and the NFT ecosystem, built mainly on Ethereum, appears to be riding shotgun on its bullish wave.

The question of how much Bitcoin is needed to retire has probably been asked by most investors, and recent research may now have the answer.

Bitcoin researcher and investor ‘Smitty’ has created a model calculating how much BTC is needed to retire on.

“Most people in most countries still need less than 1 BTC for 2035 [retirement],” he stated before adding that if retiring this year, most countries need between one and ten BTC.

The model is based on each country’s average income level, adjusted for inflation, age at retirement, and utilizing Bitcoin’s power law model for predicting prices.

Retiring on Bitcoin

Naturally, those living in expensive countries such as the United States and most of Europe will need more Bitcoin to maintain their lifestyles during retirement. However, for more than half of the countries listed, less than 1 BTC would be enough to retire on for most people in 2035.

For retirement in 2045, people in nearly all countries aside from a handful of super wealthy places would need less than 1 BTC, and in many, just 0.1 BTC would be enough, according to the research.

How much Bitcoin does the average person need to retire?

Here, its calculated and presented in radial charts
for 96 countries, ages 5 – 75, retiring in 2025 – 2055.
– – –

Based on each country’s average income level, adjusted for inflation (7% M2 expansion), and of course… pic.twitter.com/6Y9DMoHyeI

— Sminston With (@sminston_with) July 23, 2025

The findings presume that Bitcoin prices will continue to increase in accordance with the power law model, which is derived by taking resistance and support bands of BTC.

These bands are derived by taking a linear regression of the historical Bitcoin price to derive a “power law,” which is represented as a straight line showing the correlation between BTC’s price and time.

By 2035, BTC will be valued at $1.7 million, according to power law projections, more than enough to retire on for most people.

One Coiners a Rare Breed

Additionally, holding just one BTC now is rarer than being a millionaire. According to blockchain data, the actual number of unique people who own 1 Bitcoin is around 800,000 to 850,000, but this is just an estimate.

With 8 billion people on the planet, “wholecoiners” represent just 0.01% to 0.02% of the population, and those holding 1 BTC are also rarer than the estimated 16 million millionaires globally.

According to Glassnode, addresses with a balance over 1 BTC have remained above 1 million for the last year, but these include exchanges and institutional whales.