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Cryptocurrency

Why Peter Schiff Is Wrong About Bitcoin and Inflation (Opinion)

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The world’s leading cryptographic currency is trading over 40% higher than its average price on the eve of the November 5th US elections.

Analysts agree that this is owing in large part to the promises of the Trump campaign and its allies to ensure that the federal government is fair to the innovative new Internet industry. But it’s also a repeat of a historic pattern in Bitcoin’s 4-year market supply cycle.

Ark Invest’s Cathie Wood recently doubled down on her 2030 price target for Bitcoin. Last week, she told CNBC’s audience that if history continues to repeat itself, BTC will trade at $1 million by 2030.

The blockchain money industry says that’s good news for the economy as well as the secure layer of the Internet they’re building for financial transactions. But not everyone agrees.

Peter Schiff Casts Shade on Web3 Macro Economics

Peter Schiff, founder and chief strategist of the Euro Pacific macro hedge fund, said in a post on X Wednesday that money spent on Bitcoin is a “misallocation” that will lead to inefficiencies in the economy. Schiff added that larger trade deficits, a weaker dollar, and lower GDP are the health of the Bitcoin regime.

In another post Wednesday, Schiff remarked that Bitcoin will ironically become a source of inflation, even as buyers use the cryptocurrency as a shelter from dollar inflation.

How Bitcoin Helps the Fed Do its Job

Schiff may be getting tangled up in the terminology of inflation. It’s a forgivable error. Bitcoin’s role in the ecosystem is so novel it’s still difficult to comprehend, even for a capable economist like the founder of the Euro Pac.

Rising business and consumer costs from low-rate dollar environments are the inflation that cryptocurrency users use Bitcoin to protect and grow their wealth. Rising BTC prices represent the dollar’s inflation and Bitcoin’s relative deflation.

(BTC is inflationary, but far less so than the dollar when the Federal Reserve cuts rates.)

So, will more investment in Bitcoin actually goose the trade deficit with China and US dollar inflation while slowing new supplies of goods and services that people use money to buy?

Every dollar sent to Bitcoin instead of overseas to China for imports actually helps balance the trade deficit. Meanwhile, it’s not Bitcoin that causes dollar inflation; the Federal Reserve increases the dollar supply to target lower borrowing costs.

Since resolving the financial crisis of 2008, the Fed has actually been terrified that the money supply isn’t keeping up with GDP. The danger of the resulting deflation is a potential debt devaluation spiral that could mire the economy into an intractable depression.

Bitcoin actually supports the central bank in this regard by locking up excess savings in a digital economy that incentivizes participants to “hodl,” not to spend their surplus earnings.

If they were spending all that crypto market cap worth of surplus value, it could drive up prices, ceterus paribus, and make life harder for fixed-income households to manage.

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Cryptocurrency

TRON Reaches Massive Milestone: Is TRX’s Price Primed to Rocket?

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TL;DR

  • Tron’s network continues to attract users due to its fast transaction speeds and low costs, hence the latest impressive milestone.
  • At the same time, the native token’s price seems stuck between two major buy and sell walls, with little indication of the direction of the next move.

Although it’s still behind the leader, Ethereum, Tron’s USDT share has skyrocketed in the past few years. According to Tether’s transparency page, almost $72 billion worth of the world’s largest stablecoin is on Tron (from the Total Authorized amount), while Ethereum leads with $74.5 billion.

The numbers are even closer when you look at the net circulation – $73 billion for Ethereum and $71 billion for Tron. Solana, Ton, and Avalanche trail further behind, with around $2 billion each.

Perhaps that’s one of the biggest reasons behind the milestone we hinted about. CryptoQuant informed earlier this week that Tron has “grown to be one of the most active blockchain networks in the world” as it had crossed the $10 billion total transactions target.

The report claims that the daily transaction count is well above $8 million, which places Tron among the leaders in the space.

Tron Transaction Count. Source: CryptoQuant

Although the current average daily numbers are far from the 2023 peak, they are still close to the bull runs in mid-2021 and late 2024.

TRX’s price exploded late last year, surging to a new all-time high of over $0.43. However, it failed to maintain its run and has lost over 40% of its value since then. The past few months have seen the asset trading mostly in a tight range between $0.2 and $0.26.

According to a popular market observer and data analyst, TRX has built a buy wall at approximately the current price range, which acts as support in case of a violent nosedive. However, it also has a sell wall at around $0.3, which could mean that the asset will remain within this range for a while.

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Important Bitcoin Metric Hits 6-Month High as BTC Price Prepares for Rebound

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TL;DR

  • Months after it was declared a ghost town, the Bitcoin network has picked up pace again, with the number of active addresses skyrocketing to over 900,000.
  • At the same time, a popular technical indicator has flashed a buy signal, suggesting that BTC’s price could be primed for another run in the short term.

Network activity is an important metric that helps determine whether or not the underlying blockchain is being used and to what extent. Although it’s not directly linked to the asset’s price movements, it shows the overall interest in it, and sometimes coincides with said moves.

For instance, the active addresses skyrocketed after the US elections, and BTC’s price followed suit. Contrastingly, the activity levels plunged after Trump’s inauguration, as the Bitcoin network was declared a “ghost town,” and the asset’s price followed suit in the following months, dropping from over $100,000 to under $80,000.

Now, though, Ali Martinez, the popular analyst on X, outlined a substantial uptick in the number of daily active addresses. His chart shows that the usage has shot up to over 925,000 such wallets, which is the highest amount in six months.

Recall that BTC’s price has already regained over $20,000 since its April 7 and 9 lows of under $75,000. However, it faced rejection at $98,000 yesterday and has fallen by around two grand.

Nevertheless, Martinez brought up another chart, which suggests more price increases are to come for the largest digital asset. The TD Sequential, a metric used to showcase the market’s exhaustion in either direction, has flashed a buy signal on the hourly chart, which is usually a good entry point.

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The Baby’s Getting Big: Bitcoin Volatility Hits 563-Day Low

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Vetle Lunde, the head of research at K33 Research, pointed out in an astonishing Crypto X post on Apr. 30 that the cryptocurrency’s 7-day volatility had just hit a 563-day low.

Meanwhile, 30-day Bitcoin price volatility against the US dollar has steadily ratcheted down. BTC volatility has been receding since 2011 and since 2021, according to data from BitBo and TheBlock.

Low Bitcoin Volatility: Bullish or Bearish for Price?

Low volatility can be bearish for cryptocurrencies and stocks. That’s because during bull markets prices tend to swing upward with more volume and correct more suddenly.

As a result, some traders may interpret low volatility as a sell or wait signal. But, Bitcoin’s chart technicals achieved this landmark record during a fierce BTC rally on Wall Street funds and crypto exchanges.

So, it may be difficult to fit this into the bigger picture as a bearish sign.

Instead, low BTC volatility may simply be the result of Bitcoin now having such a high market cap, near the $2 trillion notch to start May, that liquidity runs smoother. Whale-sized participants no longer have the volatile splash effect on the overall market they once had.

Fidelity: Many Stocks More Volatile Than BTC

Overall, that’s a bullish milestone for Bitcoin. It means the network has grown in capitalization at such a startling pace that now it doesn’t bob up and down so much like a small boat in the ocean. Instead, it moves more like a large, well-keeled, and stately craft.

A Fidelity Digital Assets research study from last year pointed out some interesting facts about BTC’s price fluctuations, such as, “Bitcoin is volatile, but less so than many popular mega-cap stocks.”

The Boston-based mega investment corporation also said, “Bitcoin is currently less volatile than 33 S&P 500 stocks, and as recently as late 2023, there were 92 S&P 500 stocks more volatile than bitcoin.”

The report nailed one projection: “Bitcoin’s volatility has declined and is expected to continue doing so.” Meanwhile, the crypto’s price has been rapidly increasing after the early April low of under $75,000 and is knocking on the $100,000 door.

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