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Cryptocurrency

Will Markets Move With $2.2B in Crypto Options Expiring?

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Around $2.25 billion in notional value cryptocurrency options contracts will expire on June 7. Roughly 18,000 Bitcoin options contracts are among them, and these have a notional value of $1.25 billion.

Today’s crypto options expiry event is a lot smaller than last week’s end-of-month contract expiry so impact on spot markets is likely to be minimal.

Bitcoin Options Expiry

Today’s batch of Bitcoin contracts have a put/call ratio of 0.67, with around a third more long contracts expiring than shorts. Moreover, the max pain point, or the price at which most losses will be made, is $70,000. This is currently slightly lower than spot prices, which are just over $71,000 at the time of writing.

According to Deribit, there is almost a billion dollars in open interest (OI) at the $75,000 strike price. OI refers to the number or value of open contracts that have yet to be settled. Bullish derivatives traders are also aiming at $80,000 and $100,000 strike prices, with OI at $890 million and $969 million, respectively.

With the Bank of Canada and the European Central Bank initiating interest rate cuts this week and the market performing better driven by both BTC and ETH ETFs, there is a “more optimistic market atmosphere as macro and news diverge significantly,” commented crypto derivatives tooling provider Greeks Live.

It added that Bitcoin’s major term implied volatility is around 50%, and Ethereum is around 55%, “both of which have fallen to a reasonable level.” IV is a measure of future expected volatility derived from expiring contracts.

Ethereum Options Expiry

In addition to today’s expiring BTC contracts, there are 260,000 Ethereum options expiring with a notional value of $1 billion. These have a put/call ratio of 0.64 and a max pain point of $3,650, slightly lower than the current spot price of $3,820.

Greeks Live observed that this month’s Bitcoin market volatility will be strongly correlated with the macro news of the Fed’s interest rate decision while Ethereum is driven by news of the ETF approvals.

Crypto market capitalization was flat on the day at $2.78 trillion at the time of writing, but it has gained 4% over the past seven days. There has been very little movement for the majority of digital assets over the past 24 hours.

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Cryptocurrency

Ethereum’s Network Activity Heats Up with a 10% Increase in Active Addresses

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After a worrying start to the month, Ethereum finally showed signs of recovery as April progressed. The altcoin climbed to nearly $1,830 a few days ago before facing a small correction.

In the backdrop of this uptrend, the Ethereum network fundamentals appear to be heating up.

Active Addresses Surge

CryptoQuant’s latest analysis stated that Ethereum’s active addresses increased from 306,211 to 336,366 within just two days, an almost 10% jump. This surge, coupled with a rise in the price of Ether, indicated heightened network activity and growing interest in the blockchain.

This recent uptick is seen as a positive indicator for Ethereum, especially given its role as the foundation for many major blockchain projects. With Ether being a cornerstone of the broader altcoin ecosystem, any significant price movement in ETH is likely to influence the entire market.

As Ethereum continues to grow, the momentum may spark further growth across decentralized applications and projects built on the network.

“Final thought: Since Ether is the most important token in the Altcoin ecosystem, what would happen if its price explodes? The answer: very likely, the entire ecosystem would move with it.”

Institutional Offloading of Ethereum

With regards to Ethereum’s cost basis distribution, there is a significant concentration of supply around the price level of $1,895, where approximately 1.64 million ETH is held. This concentration indicates a key overhead resistance point, as many holders at this price level were last active in November 2024, during the crypto asset’s rally.

At that time, these investors purchased ETH, driving their cost basis higher. This suggests that as ETH approached this price range earlier this week, it faced selling pressure from these holders who sought to break even or secure profits.

As selling pressure mounts around this price level, it coincides with a broader trend of institutional offloading. For instance, Galaxy Digital transferred 65,600 ETH, worth $105.5 million, to Binance, which was a noticeable decline in its Ether holdings from about 98,000 ETH in February to 68,000 ETH, as tracked by Arkham.

Ethereum funds also faced significant outflows. Meanwhile, CoinShares reported $26.7 million in outflows last week, which pushed the total outflows to $772 million over the last two months. Despite these outflows, the altcoin has seen positive net inflows of $215 million year-to-date.

Galaxy Digital is not the only entity that has cut its Ether position. In fact, Paradigm has also reduced its exposure, as it transferred 5,500 ETH ($8.66 million) to Anchorage Digital on April 22nd.

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Bitcoin (BTC) Shows Resilience as It Strengthens and Decouples from Stock Markets

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Bitcoin has gained significant momentum over the past week, surging 10% against the US dollar after a relatively quiet and often painful spring. After recently hitting two-month high, the world’s leading cryptocurrency appears to be setting its sights on a new all-time high, and this signals a potential new phase for the asset.

Experts point to several factors contributing to Bitcoin’s resurgence.

Bitcoin’s Decoupling Cycle

According to CryptoQuant’s latest analysis, the weakening of the US dollar, which has historically shown an inverse correlation, is a factor. As the dollar drops, Bitcoin typically strengthens, a trend that seems to be playing out once again.

Another potential catalyst for BTC’s rise is the ongoing geopolitical situation. Market uncertainties, particularly due to trade tariffs imposed by the Trump administration, have recently shown signs of de-escalation. Reports indicate that the tariffs, which have weighed on markets, could be moderated as political leverage shifts.

In addition, talks surrounding a possible peace deal in Ukraine have sparked optimism. Should these negotiations result in a resolution, high-risk assets like cryptocurrencies could benefit significantly.

Perhaps the most significant trend in Bitcoin’s performance is its decoupling from traditional markets. Over the past seven days, Bitcoin has notably separated from both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite, indicating a weakening correlation with traditional stocks. The correlation coefficient with the S&P 500 has dropped from 0.88 in late 2024 to 0.77, while the Nasdaq correlation has fallen from 0.91 to 0.83 in the same period.

Digital Gold Narrative

Interestingly, Bitcoin’s relationship with gold has been strengthening. The correlation coefficient with gold has improved from -0.62 earlier this month to -0.31 currently. This suggests that Bitcoin may be increasingly viewed as a store of value similar to gold.

Such a shift could signal that Bitcoin is emerging as “digital gold,” with gold potentially serving as a leading indicator for Bitcoin’s price movements in the near future.

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Massive Price Drops for These Altcoins After Binance Withdraws Support

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TL;DR

  • Binance unveiled its next delisting effort, causing an immediate market fallout for the involved digital assets.
  • In contrast, tokens gaining support from the exchange usually experience strong rallies, highlighting the platform’s powerful influence over short-term price action.

These Assets Take a Blow

The world’s leading crypto exchange periodically reviews each asset listed on its platform to determine whether it meets quality, safety, or market relevance standards. Based on its recent examination, it decided to terminate all trading services with Alpaca Finance (ALPACA), PlayDapp (PDA), Viberate (VIB), and Wing Finance (WING). 

The delisting is scheduled for May 2, when all sport trading pairs involving the aforementioned tokens will be removed

The token’s valuation will no longer be displayed in users’ accounts after delisting. To view their assets after trading ceases, users should ensure they have not selected “Hide Small Balances” in all (of) their accounts,” the company clarified.

Binance explained that deposits involving these assets will not be credited to users after May 3, whereas withdrawals will become unavailable from July 4. 

“Delisted tokens may be converted into stablecoins on behalf of users after 2025-07-05 03:00 (UTC). Please note that the conversion of delisted tokens into stablecoins is not guaranteed,” the disclosure reads. 

Somewhat expectedly, the news triggered a major price decline for the affected cryptocurrencies. VIB and WING crashed by 42% and 36%, respectively, while ALPACA and PDA witnessed less substantial plunges. 

Reactions of that type are something normal. After all, withdrawn support from Binance leads to reduced liquidity and visibility. It can also trigger fear and uncertainty by damaging their reputation, prompting increased selling pressure. 

A similar thing was observed earlier this month when the exchange scrapped 14 altcoins from its platform. Some of the affected ones, including CREAM, recorded a whopping decrease of almost 60% after the announcement. 

The Pumping Effect

Conversely, embracing a certain cryptocurrency in one way or another from Binance often results in a significant rally. Such was the case with DeepBook (DEEP), whose price jumped by double digits earlier this week after the trading venue launched the DEEP/USDT perpetual contract with up to 50x leverage. 

Other examples include Cat in a Dogs World (MEW), whose valuation headed north after the company placed it in its pre-listing selection pool, Binance Alpha, and Tutorial (TUT), which skyrocketed by 130% following inclusion in the Binance Simple Earn section.

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