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Will the ETH Price Surge Following ETFs Launch? Gemini Outlines the Possibilities

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Investors are eagerly awaiting the launch of spot Ethereum ETFs this month. But reports of delays appear to have vexed investors.

But once spot Ethereum ETFs hit the floor, these new products are estimated to attract net inflows of $3-$5 billion within the first six months of trading, according to a recent report published by crypto exchange Gemini.

Ethereum ETFs Poised For Massive Influx

Gemini’s analysis suggests that the introduction of spot Ethereum ETFs in the US could significantly boost total assets under management (AUM). When combining the projected new inflows with the existing assets in the Grayscale Ethereum Trust (ETHE), the total AUM for US-based spot Ethereum ETFs could reach between $13 billion and $15 billion within the first half-year of trading.

The report also pointed out that Ethereum’s market value compared to Bitcoin is currently near its lowest levels in recent years. However, the anticipated influx of capital into these new vehicles could potentially improve its market position relative to Bitcoin.

If the ETH/BTC ratio were to revert to its three-year median of 0.067, it would represent a nearly 20% increase. An even more optimistic scenario, reaching the maximum ratio of 0.087 seen in this period, would translate to a 55% rally.

According to Gemini, inflows below $3 billion in the first six months would be “disappointing,” given that spot Bitcoin ETFs attracted $15 billion in a similar timeframe. Meanwhile, inflows exceeding $5 billion, equivalent to a third of Bitcoin ETF inflows, would be viewed as a strong performance. Reaching close to 50% of Bitcoin ETF inflows, or about $7.5 billion, would be a “significant upside surprise.”

Delays in Spot Ethereum ETF Launch

Currently, eight fund issuers have received 19b-4 approvals on a spot Ethereum ETF and are awaiting final S-1 authorization to list and launch trading for the products. The previous market predictions suggested a 73% chance of these ETFs launching by July 4. However, recent developments have significantly reduced those odds.

The SEC has reportedly requested additional revisions to the applications, causing a delay. Despite this setback, the eventual approval of spot Ethereum ETFs is still anticipated. The timelines have been extended, with fund issuers asked to submit updated applications by July 8.

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Notorious ‘Blockchain Bandit’ Resurfaces, Moves 51,000 ETH in Largest Fund Transfer

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After a brief hiatus, the notorious “Blockchain Bandit” has re-emerged as the year ends, consolidating a staggering 51,000 ETH, valued at approximately $172 million, into a single multisig wallet.

This transfer was made on December 30.

“Blockchain Bandit” Returns

In the latest update, prominent blockchain investigator ZachXBT revealed that the consolidation originated from 10 wallets, which have been dormant for almost two years, with the last activity being flagged in January 2023. Alongside the Ether transfer, 470 BTC were also moved.

The Blockchain Bandit earned infamy between 2016 and 2018 through an insidious technique called “Ethercombing.” By exploiting cryptographic vulnerabilities, the attacker systematically guessed weak private keys, which were often generated by faulty random number algorithms or misconfigured wallets.

This method allowed the malicious entity to steal more than 45,000 ETH across 49,060 transactions by compromising 732 private keys. While brute-forcing private keys is generally deemed improbable due to their vast numerical range, the Bandit capitalized on predictable flaws such as non-random key generation and poorly implemented recovery phrases.

Cybersecurity analysts suggest that state-sponsored actors, possibly North Korean hacker groups, could be behind the attacks, noting parallels with other large-scale crypto thefts. Such groups are known to target cryptocurrency platforms to fund illicit operations, including weapons programs.

The Bandit’s recent activity – coupled with the use of multi-signature wallets – signals preparations for potentially laundering the funds through mixers or decentralized exchanges to obscure their origins.

From Fake Meetings to Seed Phrase Traps

This attacker’s resurgence comes amid a wider uptick in crypto cybercrime as fraudsters develop new strategies to ensnare unsuspecting targets. Earlier this month, hackers were reported to have exploited fake Zoom meeting links to target crypto users and steal sensitive credentials as well as digital assets.

SlowMist traced the malware’s code to Russian-linked operatives, revealing over $1 million converted to ETH.

Another scam targeted opportunistic thieves by sharing seed phrases of fake crypto wallets. Once accessed, the wallets demand TRX for transaction fees, rerouting funds to scammers instead. Kaspersky warns that this scheme, disguised as a beginner’s mistake, manipulates thieves into becoming victims of their own greed.

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Binance’s $31B Stablecoin Reserves Signal Strong Market Confidence Despite Bitcoin’s Lull

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According to CryptoQuant’s latest data, Binance has reached a new milestone in its stablecoin reserves as it hit an all-time high of $31 billion recently. This marks a significant recovery and growth, as the reserves stood at just $7 billion in June 2023.

Therefore, the latest figure reflects a nearly fivefold increase over six months. Such a surge typically indicates increased buying pressure which, in turn, suggests a strong investor confidence and activity in the market.

As per the on-chain analytic platform’s data, current reserve levels, holding steady at around $30 billion, indicate continued market positioning by investors that would potentially support sustained demand and market strength.

All Eyes on Bitcoin’s Next Stop

This development coincides with Bitcoin’s potential breakout above $120,000, driven by strong market fundamentals and Binance’s increasing stablecoin reserves. Analysts believe that BTC, currently trading below $94,000 after a 13% correction from its $108,300 all-time high, could peak at $120,000 in January.

Meanwhile, QCP Capital highlighted that Bitcoin’s spot market has faced notable challenges, with thinner liquidity creating gaps and any recent recovery attempts capped by persistent selling pressure. Momentum in the world’s largest crypto by market cap has waned significantly as the year ends, exacerbated by $1.8 billion in net outflows from spot ETFs since December 19 and a slowdown in MicroStrategy’s Bitcoin purchases.

This weak price action mirrors broader market sentiment, as major indices like the S&P 500 and NASDAQ have experienced sharp declines amid heightened uncertainty around global trade heading into 2025.

Despite the sluggish close, the asset manager said that Bitcoin remains a standout performer in 2024, up 120% and outpacing stocks and gold. Looking to Q1 2025, QCP anticipates institutional asset reallocation in January as a key catalyst for the crypto.

With broader institutional adoption, including university endowment funds, Bitcoin’s dominance is expected to grow, stabilizing spot price movements and aligning volatility dynamics more closely with equities. Additionally, QCP predicted stronger demand for downside puts for hedging and increased covered call selling on topside gains.

Bitcoin Holder Trend

Even as Bitcoin faced pressure, Glassnode’s data revealed that Short-Term Holders (STHs) are still, on average, in a favorable position and hold an unrealized profit of over 7.9%. This suggests that many recent buyers entered the market below the current price levels, with their aggregate cost basis resting at $86,600.

This price level is shaping up to be a key region of interest, as it may serve as both a psychological and technical indicator for local price momentum.

Last week, CryptoQuant founder Ki Young Ju also shed light on a growing trend of Bitcoin whales accumulating the crypto through privacy transactions. Over the past two years, CoinJoin transactions have tripled annually, resulting in increased activity in anonymous transfers.

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Tron’s Revenue Reaches $2.12 Billion in 2024: Ethereum, Solana Trail Behind

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Tron’s (TRX) price reached an all-time high of $0.44 in the first week of December 2024, smashing previous records amid a crypto-wide bull run that gained steam after Donald Trump’s presidential win. TRX’s return to the 10th position by market capitalization has brought a sense of revival to the community, yet its price continues to struggle, down over 43% from its newly established peak and stuck around the $0.25 level for nearly two weeks.

Despite this, Tron’s monthly revenue has steadily increased.

Tron Tops Revenue Rankings

According to the latest findings by Lookonchain, the Tron network has seen a significant surge in revenue over the past 30 days, reaching approximately $330 million – an increase of 39.7% compared to the previous month. As a result, revenue climbed to $764.11 million over the past 90 days.

In the third quarter of 2024, Tron recorded a significant revenue surge that can be attributed to the rapid success of SunPump, its token launcher platform tailored for meme coins. SunPump gained traction starting August 16, with activity skyrocketing in the two weeks that followed.

Zooming out, this growth has contributed to more than 115% year-on-year rise in the network’s total revenue for 2024, which now stands at $2.12 billion.  This is further validated by CryptoDep’s data, which shows Tron topping the blockchain revenue charts for 2024. This placed Tron ahead of Ethereum, which trails behind with $2 billion in revenue.

Meanwhile, Solana, despite its impressive 3,028% growth trend and $90.9 billion market cap, remains far behind Tron in revenue generation. Similarly, Base and other emerging blockchains, such as Arbitrum, with $44.7 million, and Optimism, with $37.9 million, lag significantly behind.

A Bullish Reversal For TRX?

Nevertheless, the cryptocurrency market as a whole turned bearish post-Christmas, with TRX suffering significant losses. The holiday season has been a lull for the crypto, but it could soon find a local bottom.7

Resistance zones are anticipated at $0.40 and $0.49. Speculations about asset manager Grayscale and Tron founder Justin Sun’s recent initiatives have driven community interest.

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