Economy
Argentina August inflation forecast at highest since 1991
© Reuters. FILE PHOTO: A costumer counts money before buying tangerines in a green grocery store, as Argentines struggle amid rising inflation, in Buenos Aires, Argentina May 11, 2023. REUTERS/Agustin Marcarian/File Photo
By Hernan Nessi
BUENOS AIRES (Reuters) – Argentina’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) likely rose 11.8% in August, which would be the highest monthly figure since 1991, according to a Reuters poll of analysts on Monday, after a sharp devaluation of the local peso currency last month.
The country’s government devalued the currency by nearly 20% in mid-August after radical libertarian Javier Milei, who wants to axe the central bank and dollarize the economy, won a shock 30% of the vote in the country’s open primary election.
Argentina was already battling annual inflation near 115%, which is driving a painful cost of living crisis and pushing people into poverty. The crisis is also shaking up the political arena ahead of general elections in October.
“August was the worst month, I would say in the last 25 years of Argentina’s economy,” Sergio Massa, Minister of Economy and presidential candidate for the ruling Peronist bloc, said in a recent television interview.
“It will be noticeable in the inflation number.”
The survey of 28 analysts polled by Reuters forecast monthly inflation for August ranging from 9.3% to a maximum 12.9%. Argentina’s National Institute of Statistics and Censuses (INDEC) is scheduled to publish the official data on Wednesday.
C&T Economic Advisors, which projects an 11% monthly advance for August, said it would likely beat a peak of 10.4% in April 2002 during a major economic crisis and equal that of March 1991 before the country imposed a currency peg.
Prices had already been accelerating since the second half of July but the jump in all exchange rates on Aug. 14 further changed the situation, the consultancy said in a report.
Analysts also predicted inflation would likely remain in double figures for September.
“The increase registered in the CPI during August will generate a carry-over effect,” said Eugenio Mari, Chief Economist at the Libertad y Progreso Foundation.
© Reuters. Russian Central Bank Governor Elvira Nabiullina attends a news conference in Moscow, Russia June 14, 2019. REUTERS/Shamil Zhumatov/File Photo
MOSCOW (Reuters) – Russia’s central bank will need two to three months to make sure that inflation is steadily declining before taking any decision on interest rate cuts, the bank’s governor Elvira Nabiullina told RBC media on Sunday.
The central bank raised its key interest rate by 100 basis points to 16% earlier in December, hiking for the fifth consecutive meeting in response to stubborn inflation, and suggested that its tightening cycle was nearly over.
Nabiullina said it was not yet clear when exactly the regulator would start cutting rates, however.
“We really need to make sure that inflation is steadily decreasing, that these are not one-off factors that can affect the rate of price growth in a particular month,” she said.
Nabiullina said the bank was taking into account a wide range of indicators but primarily those that “characterize the stability of inflation”.
“This will take two or three months or more – it depends on how much the wide range of indicators that characterize sustainable inflation declines,” she said.
The bank will next convene to set its benchmark rate on Feb. 16.
The governor also said the bank should have started monetary policy tightening earlier than in July, when it embarked on the rate-hiking cycle.
© Reuters. FILE PHOTO: Workers walk past an under-construction area with completed office towers in the background, in Shenzhen’s Qianhai new district, Guangdong province, China August 25, 2023. REUTERS/David Kirton/File Photo
SHANGHAI (Reuters) – China’s top planning body said on Saturday it had identified a second batch of public investment projects, including flood control and disaster relief programmes, under a bond issuance and investment plan announced in October to boost the economy.
With the latest tranche, China has now earmarked more than 800 billion yuan of its 1 trillion yuan ($140 billion) in additional government bond issuance in the fourth quarter, as it focuses on fiscal steps to shore up the flagging economy.
The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) said in a statement on Saturday it had identified 9,600 projects with planned investment of more than 560 billion yuan.
China’s economy, the world’s second largest, is struggling to regain its footing post-COVID-19 as policymakers grapple with tepid consumer demand, weak exports, falling foreign investment and a deepening real estate crisis.
The 1 trillion yuan in additional bond issuance will widen China’s 2023 budget deficit ratio to around 3.8 percent from 3 percent, the state-run Xinhua news agency has said.
“Construction of the projects will improve China’s flood control system, emergency response mechanism and disaster relief capabilities, and better protect people’s lives and property, so it is very significant,” the NDRC said.
The agency said it will coordinate with other government bodies to make sure that funds are allocated speedily for investment and that high standards of quality are maintained in project construction.
($1 = 7.1315 renminbi)
© Reuters. Russian Central Bank Governor Elvira Nabiullina attends a news conference in Moscow, Russia June 14, 2019. REUTERS/Shamil Zhumatov/File Photo
MOSCOW (Reuters) – Russia’s central bank will need two to three months to make sure that inflation is steadily declining before taking any decision on interest rate cuts, the bank’s governor Elvira Nabiullina told RBC media on Sunday.
The central bank raised its key interest rate by 100 basis points to 16% earlier in December, hiking for the fifth consecutive meeting in response to stubborn inflation, and suggested that its tightening cycle was nearly over.
Nabiullina said it was not yet clear when exactly the regulator would start cutting rates, however.
“We really need to make sure that inflation is steadily decreasing, that these are not one-off factors that can affect the rate of price growth in a particular month,” she said.
Nabiullina said the bank was taking into account a wide range of indicators but primarily those that “characterize the stability of inflation”.
“This will take two or three months or more – it depends on how much the wide range of indicators that characterize sustainable inflation declines,” she said.
The bank will next convene to set its benchmark rate on Feb. 16.
The governor also said the bank should have started monetary policy tightening earlier than in July, when it embarked on the rate-hiking cycle.
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