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Bank of Israel holds interest rates, eyes turn to possible end of governor’s tenure

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Bank of Israel holds interest rates, eyes turn to possible end of governor's tenure
© Reuters. FILE PHOTO: Bank of Israel Governor Amir Yaron attends a cabinet meeting at the Prime Minister’s office in Jerusalem, February 23, 2023. REUTERS/Ronen Zvulun/Pool/File Photo

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By Steven Scheer and Ari Rabinovitch

JERUSALEM (Reuters) -The Bank of Israel left interest rates unchanged on Monday citing signs inflation is easing, but its decision was overshadowed by a report – denied by the central bank – that its governor was set to announce he would not seek a second term.

As expected, policymakers kept the benchmark rate at 4.75% for the second meeting in a row, its highest level since late 2006. It had paused at its July 10 meeting after raising short term borrowing costs at 10 consecutive meetings from April 2022, an aggressive tightening cycle that took the main rate from 0.1%.

The central bank had earlier denied a report by one of Israel’s two main radio channels that Governor Amir Yaron would say on Monday that he will not seek to stay on when his current term expires at the end of the year.

“The report this morning by Army Radio that the governor will deliver his decision today regarding the extension of his term is incorrect,” the Bank of Israel said. “As he has said until now, the governor will deliver his decision on extending his term around the (Jewish) holiday season.”

The high holiday season this year is Sept. 16 to Oct. 7.

The issue of whether Yaron will seek or be reappointed for a second term has loomed over financial markets for months.

Them Israeli-born U.S. finance professor, who was nominated by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in 2018, has been critical of the economic impact of a plan by Netanyahu’s government to overhaul Israel’s judicial system.

He has also clashed with lawmakers over sharp interest rate increases that have boosted bank profits while hurting mortgage holders.

After keeping rates steady – a break with the U.S. Federal Reserve which raised rates in July – the central bank said economic activity remains strong, with a tight labour market. Inflation is broad and high but appears to be slowing.

Many economists believe the hiking cycle is over and that the Bank of Israel will start rate cuts in 2024. The central bank said on Monday, however, that it still saw a real possibility of having to raise in the future “if the inflation environment does not continue to moderate as expected”.

Israel’s annual inflation rate dropped to 3.3% in July from 4.2% in June, its lowest rate since March 2022 but above a government target range of 1-3%.

“The tone of the statement was overall neutral but with one hawkish element: the ‘real possibility’ of further rate hikes reference was not yet removed,” said Citi economist Michel Nies, who sees a rate cut in early 2024.

Part of the path of inflation depends on the shekel, which is at a 3-1/2 year low versus the dollar. The exchange rate, which the central bank has said has a pass through of up to 20% on inflation, has weakened more than 8% so far in 2023.

It was down 0.5% to a rate of 3.815 per dollar in late afternoon trading.

“The shekel’s depreciation in recent months is contributing to the increase in the inflation rate and the path of the exchange rate in the coming months will have an impact on the dynamics of inflation,” the central bank said.

Israel’s economy meanwhile grew at a faster than expected 3.0% annualised rate in the second quarter from the prior three months.

Economy

Fed’s Powell: Economy still working through the impact of the pandemic

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Fed's Powell: Economy still working through the impact of the pandemic
© Reuters. FILE PHOTO: U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell holds a press conference in Washington, U.S, September 20, 2023. REUTERS/Evelyn Hockstein/File Photo

By Howard Schneider

YORK, Pa. (Reuters) – The U.S. economy is still dealing with the aftermath of the COVID-19 pandemic, Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell said during a meeting with community and business leaders in York, Pennsylvania.

“We are still coming through the other side of the pandemic,” Powell said, noting labor shortages in healthcare, ongoing difficulties with access to child care, and other issues heightened by the health crisis. He did not comment on current monetary policy or the economic outlook in brief opening remarks.

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Economy

Credit Suisse, Mozambique secure out-of-court ‘tuna bond’ settlement

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Credit Suisse, Mozambique secure out-of-court 'tuna bond' settlement
© Reuters. FILE PHOTO: The logo of Credit Suisse is seen outside its office building in Hong Kong, China, August 8, 2023. REUTERS/Tyrone Siu/File Photo

By Noele Illien and Kirstin Ridley

ZURICH (Reuters) -Credit Suisse has reached an 11th-hour out-of-court settlement with Mozambique over the decade-old $1.5 billion-plus “tuna bond” scandal, the Swiss bank’s new owner UBS said on Sunday, drawing a line under a damaging dispute it inherited.

“The parties have mutually released each other from any liabilities and claims relating to the transactions,” UBS said in a statement. “The parties are pleased to have resolved this long-running dispute,” it added without giving further details.

Under the deal, struck one day before a three-month London civil trial was due to start, UBS will forgive part of a loan that Credit Suisse made to Mozambique in 2013, representing less than $100 million, said one source familiar with the situation, who declined to be named because the terms are not public.

In Maputo, the Mozambican Attorney General’s Office and Ministry of Economy and Finance said they were calling a joint news conference for Monday morning.

The tuna bond case dates back to deals between state-owned Mozambican companies and shipbuilder Privinvest – funded in part by loans and bonds from Credit Suisse and backed by undisclosed Mozambican government guarantees in 2013 and 2014 – ostensibly to develop the fishing industry and for maritime security.

But hundreds of millions of dollars went missing and, when the government debt came to light in 2016, donors such as the International Monetary Fund temporarily halted support, triggering a currency collapse, defaults and financial turmoil.

The settlement included most of the creditors involved in funding a 2013 loan to ProIndicus, a state-owned Mozambican company, UBS said.

DRAWING A LINE

UBS, which took over scandal-scarred Credit Suisse amid turmoil in the global banking sector earlier this year, has pledged to resolve Credit Suisse’s legacy legal disputes.

Since completing the mega merger on June 12, it has paid $388 million to U.S. and British regulators over dealings with collapsed private investment firm Archegos Capital Management and settled a dispute with a finance blog.

The latest settlement leaves French shipping mogul Iskandar Safa and his Privinvest group among key remaining defendants in a High Court battle over the funding and maritime deals that have already triggered U.S. and Mozambican criminal proceedings.

Mozambique has alleged it was the victim of a conspiracy and that Privinvest paid bribes to corrupt Mozambican officials and Credit Suisse bankers, exposing the country to a potential liability of at least $2 billion.

Privinvest has alleged it delivered on all of its obligations under the contracts and that any payments it made were either investments, consultancy payments, legitimate remuneration or legitimate political campaign contributions.

The company did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

NYUSI IMMUNITY

In another twist to the complex case, Privinvest on Friday secured permission to appeal against a London High Court decision to grant Mozambican President Filipe Nyusi immunity from the proceedings. Privinvest has argued that if it is found liable, Nyusi should contribute to any damages.

Officials in the Maputo government did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

Court of Appeal Judge Elizabeth Laing said it was now up to the trial judge to grant any applications for adjournment, a decision seen by Reuters over the weekend showed.

In 2021, Credit Suisse agreed to pay about $475 million to British and U.S. authorities to resolve bribery and fraud charges and has pledged to forgive $200 million of debt owed by Mozambique.

It has alleged three former bankers, who arranged the bonds and have pleaded guilty in the United States to handling kickbacks, hid their misconduct from the bank.

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Economy

US Congress averts government shutdown, passing stopgap bill

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US Congress averts government shutdown, passing stopgap bill
© Reuters. U.S. House Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-CA) speaks with reporters after a House Republican conference meeting following a series of failed votes on spending packages at the U.S. Capitol ahead of a looming government shutdown in Washington, U.S. September 29,

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By David Morgan, Moira Warburton and Makini Brice

WASHINGTON (Reuters) -The U.S. Congress passed a stopgap funding bill late on Saturday with overwhelming Democratic support after Republican House Speaker Kevin McCarthy backed down from an earlier demand by his party’s hardliners for a partisan bill.

The Democratic-majority Senate voted 88-9 to pass the measure to avoid the federal government’s fourth partial shutdown in a decade, sending the bill to President Joe Biden, who signed it into law before the 12:01 a.m. ET (0401 GMT) deadline.

McCarthy abandoned party hardliners’ insistence that any bill pass the House with only Republican votes, a change that could cause one of his far-right members to try to oust him from his leadership role.

The House voted 335-91 to fund the government through Nov. 17, with more Democrats than Republicans supporting it.

That move marked a profound shift from earlier in the week, when a shutdown looked all but inevitable. A shutdown would mean that most of the government’s 4 million employees would not get paid – whether they were working or not – and also would shutter a range of federal services, from National Parks to financial regulators.

Federal agencies had already drawn up detailed plans that spell out what services would continue, such as airport screening and border patrols, and what must shut down, including scientific research and nutrition aid to 7 million poor mothers.

“The American people can breathe a sigh of relief: there will be no government shutdown tonight,” Democratic Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer said after the vote. “Democrats have said from the start that the only solution for avoiding a shutdown is bipartisanship, and we are glad Speaker McCarthy has finally heeded our message.”

DEMOCRATS CALL IT A WIN

Some 209 Democrats supported the bill, far more than the 126 Republicans who did so, and Democrats described the result as a win.

“Extreme MAGA Republicans have lost, the American people have won,” top House Democrat Hakeem Jeffries told reporters ahead of the vote, referring to the “Make America Great Again” slogan used by former President Donald Trump and many hardline Republicans.

Democratic Representative Don Beyer said: “I am relieved that Speaker McCarthy folded and finally allowed a bipartisan vote at the 11th hour on legislation to stop Republicans’ rush to a disastrous shutdown.”

McCarthy’s shift won the support of top Senate Republican Mitch McConnell, who had backed a similar measure that was moving through the Senate with broad bipartisan support, even though the House version dropped aid for Ukraine.

Democratic Senator Michael Bennett held the bill up for several hours trying to negotiate a deal for further Ukraine aid.

“While I would have preferred to pass a bill now with additional assistance for Ukraine, which has bipartisan support in both the House and Senate, it is easier to help Ukraine with the government open than if it were closed,” Democratic Senator Chris Van Hollen said in a statement.

McCarthy dismissed concerns that hardline Republicans could try to oust him as leader.

“I want to be the adult in the room, go ahead and try,” McCarthy told reporters. “And you know what? If I have to risk my job for standing up for the American public, I will do that.”

He said that House Republicans would push ahead with plans to pass more funding bills that would cut spending and include other conservative priorities, such as tighter border controls.

CREDIT CONCERNS

The standoff comes just months after Congress brought the federal government to the brink of defaulting on its $31.4 trillion debt. The drama has raised worries on Wall Street, where the Moody’s (NYSE:) ratings agency has warned it could damage U.S. creditworthiness.

Congress typically passes stopgap spending bills to buy more time to negotiate the detailed legislation that sets funding for federal programs.

This year, a group of Republicans has blocked action in the House as they have pressed to tighten immigration and cut spending below levels agreed to in the debt-ceiling standoff in the spring.

The McCarthy-Biden deal that avoided default set a limit of $1.59 trillion in discretionary spending in fiscal 2024. House Republicans are demanding a further $120 billion in cuts.

The funding fight focuses on a relatively small slice of the $6.4 trillion U.S. budget for this fiscal year. Lawmakers are not considering cuts to popular benefit programs such as Social Security and Medicare.

“We should never have been in this position in the first place. Just a few months ago, Speaker McCarthy and I reached a budget agreement to avoid precisely this type of manufactured crisis,” Biden said in a statement after the vote. “House Republicans tried to walk away from that deal by demanding drastic cuts that would have been devastating for millions of Americans. They failed.”

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